GOLD

[drbubb]

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

Very good write-up

 

TAKE A LOOK at the Long Term chart:

The Bull market is still intact.

Something like $800 is key support on the Monthly chart, then $650 maybe

 

I dont believe the dollar can go much higher. This ws driven by a concerted effort of CB's

in a summer market, and they may have spent their force by now, and will need to be careful

from here. A big bounceback in Gold would mark a very important low for Gold, and give

the Dollar bears a great chance to regroup.

 

In hindsight, the $850 had too many stops, and was too tempting a target for Gold Bears to miss, so they ran the stops there, and triggered a $30 selloff.

 

 

Today's sentiment feels more like a low than the complacency many had on Friday

(self included.) Another few days, could establish a nice low, filling that gap at GLD-$79/80

 

[kernull]

Not being funny, but what has a lunar eclipse got to do with the price of Commodities ?

 

the moon , as the same as solar wind are affecting human brain. for example, people getting too depressed and sell, or too euforic and buy more.

and this date also techically has good alignment, we have dollar peaking and approaching oversold condition in commodities

[warpig]

I'll try and help you out I don't think you're a troll, it just sounds like you need to convince your partner.

 

In short... I will not sell until the shit has hit the fan, someone has cleared up the shit and they're on their way to the shops to buy more carpet cleaner.

 

The POG could go to $400/oz or lower and I will still hold my gold until this crisis is abated. You have to believe what you're doing is right and when all is said and done, I know the POG will easily exceed the highest spot rate I paid and preserve my wealth to boot. Don't take this the wrong way it is intended as advice, but unless you already have this attitude given the current climate, gold may not be for you. If you get the willies and panic, you are very likely to make a costly mistake, as everyone here says don't day trade your gold holdings.

 

IMO the only people who should be buying gold are the people who strongly believe that this crisis cannot be averted and gold is one of the few sanctuarys.

 

Whilst reading between the lines I hope you find answers to most of your questions.

 

Hi everyone,

 

I have had the unfortunate role of defending the "impossible" , i.e. gold going

as low as 666. I was myself suspicious when the number 666 came out, but

not being in occultism, I take it as a mere number

 

- how would you, gold holders, react if gold was to go to 800? 750? 700? 666?

up to which level would you hold? when would you expect call margins?

how low would have gold to go for you to sell? If you were to sell, would you

sell bit by bit or all in one go? would any of these numbers make you sweat or bring panick?

 

- how would you react if this movement was slow and steady?

- how would you react if this movement was accompanied with a lot of volatility?

 

- for this to happen : what % of world bank, IMF and other CBs gold reserve would have to be sold?

 

- who would benefit from these falls?

 

What do you believe is the likelihood of these levels being reached ( may be a why would help me win )

and what amount in loss $ this would represent

- 800 : likelihood / why / loss

- 750 : likelihood / why / loss

- 700 : likelihood / why / loss

- 666 : likelihood / why / loss

[Catflap]

Why shouldn't it be possible? Of course, it could happen. In the 1970s, gold had a huge run-up, then plunged 50%, then had another huge run-up.

50% from $1,000 would be $500. I would be buying all the way down. In fact, silver looks now so attractive to me that I am very, very tempted to buy some on credit (NOT margin).

 

This is exactly when I want to buy: when everyone is predicting the end of a commodities market and price inflation, but the fundamentals scream the opposite.

 

This volatility (in gold) has been predicted by Jim Sinclair for a long time. People on margin will see their lives passing by (is what he said).

 

It's a rollercoaster! Weehheee!

 

EDIT: Last year I thought gold would only by a small chance cross $850 within a year. I didn't even think of $1,000! Now, look where we are. I am tempted to lever myself because gold is DOWN to $850 and below.

 

I was looking at what happened to gold in the 70's at around '74 because that was 8 years into the bull market in commodities and one year past the peak of house prices in '73 - it does seem like a little bit of history is repeating. Cue 2008 which is also 8 years into the bull run in commodities and one year past the peak of house prices. My own view, FWIW is that it's worth looking at what happened in this period from '74 onwards insofar as the same things are happening - gold might recover to it's previous high before falling like it did to a low in August 1976 or this could be it falling now - who knows.

 

It was from that point in August 1976 that gold rocketed so this same point might well be 2 years away IMO - that's when I will be seriously looking at gold, once the deflation in house prices is largely over in 2010.

 

 

The fundamentals have not changed. What we see is a nice correction in a roaring bull market.

 

The same people who were asleep at the wheel when the whole mortgage mess developed (or who even caused it) are now telling us the (commodities) inflation threat is over? Yeah, sure. I am betting against them with all I have.

 

Edit: typo.

 

Me too, but biding my time a little - this commodities bull run is set to last another 10 years and is far from over.

[dom]

I'm with Jim on this one.

[bitbigt]

TAKE A LOOK at the Long Term chart:

The Bull market is still intact.

I agree. On the way up in a bull market prices overshot and correct, overshot and correct, overshoot and correct.... until their final exponential blowoff. I guess what people fear now is that this gold bull involved just one 'overshoot and correct' (May 2006) and that what we saw earlier this year was the big blowoff. But the May 2006 overshoot was followed by a >20% fall (730 to 580). To match that the 1030 top this spring would have to be followed by a fall to the 800-820 range. The charts suggest to me that gold had blantly 'overshot' by the time it got to 1030, and its correction was unfolding naturally, when out of the blue oil shot up to 147 dragging gold back up to 980 all of a sudden. It's perhaps no surprise then that with oil then falling and gold still not having fully corrected, that gold should fall dramatically these last two weeks. ...a perfect storm: and yet gold has still not suffered a 20% correction, especially if measured in Sterling.

 

In hindsight, the $850 had too many stops, and was too tempting a target for Gold Bears to miss, so they ran the stops there, and triggered a $30 selloff.

Agreed. But imagine if it had held 1030 would soon be taken out!

[njpurser]

Markets are 90% psychological 10% logical

Don't be in that 90%, think logically - Gold and Silver have very very strong fundamentals.

 

Hold tight, this bull doesn't want anyone along for the ride and will try anything to push you off.

Agreed

 

[bitbigt]

Remember, it has been true for a long time, and it is still true, I think:

Most believe ONLY NEW YORK TRADING is really meaningful on the charts.

I agree if you're interested in looking at technicals to predict short term movements.

 

But I do think that non-US moves can say something about investors view of gold beyond America. From this I currently detect clues that most people outside the US think gold is becoming very cheap.

 

US dominance is apparent in most things, including global markets, but it won't last forever

[romans holiday]

I am trying to find out if there is a price level of gold which could create a sentiment of uncomfort, malaise, disbelief and panick among gold holders.

If you could answer some of my questions, this would really be helpful as you are a gold holder.

 

It is well known by most gold holders that a gold bull market is extremely volatile. It is long term play.... the only certainty short term is volatility.

 

As I posted earlier in this thread, just before the drop yesterday, I expected the possiblity of further drops. The 70's bull market is a useful model for comparison. During the seventies’ bull market gold lost about half of its value in a period of two years, just before embarking on an unprecedented run that took the price to $850/oz.

 

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1218389880.php

 

I do not pay much attention to the dollar price of gold.

[romans holiday]

This from John Nadler neatly sums up the (currently small) 'sell/set a stop-loss' angel on my left shoulder.

 

"Perma-bulls continue to live in denial about the dollar and about the commodities sector. Every drop is a buying opportunity, every rise the start of a new era. But what if - this time - the turn is actually the real thing?

 

Speculative funds poured hundreds of billions into commodities over the past couple of years. Sensing that they had pushed the envelope well past the breaking point, the hedgies are leaving the complex as they perceive that the Fed is not joking about inflation combat, and that regulators are also not joking about oversight of what had become a giant casino - one where "the house" never won. In casino terms, "the die is cast." Rien ne va plus"

 

Most on this site have explained well the 'don't panic' angel on my right shoulder....

 

In my opinion the gold bull market has barely began. Wall Street Pschology [WSP] still has gold connected to commodities. We are still waiting for the institutional money to come into gold as the monetary function of gold is increasingly rediscovered. This no doubt would entail some monetary crisis of some kind to unfold, and those looking at the fundamentals argue that the scene is well set for this. Yet this would still be only the second phase of the secular bull market. The final phase is wehen Joe Public gets on board and is known as the manic phase. That is the time to sell and that could be a few years away.

[headmelter]

Kitco chart starting to look like a landslide.

[CIGA]

The KEY here is not to get 'religious' on this.

 

Folks we need to analyze what is going on scientifically.

 

Scientifically I see hell on earth.

Gold and Silver are dying a death and noone can give a reason why.

 

LOL

 

Not even Jim Sinclair can explain this hell - he has banned trader dan from posting the technical massacre.

800 is current support.

 

We are touching or DROPPING below a 300dma which has not been seen for years.

 

Either this is THE bargain of the century or the financial world has gone crazy.

 

Recommendation:

 

Fundamentals in tact

smokescreen

blood on streets

back up the truck

BUY GOLD BUY SILVER

Now.

 

I am seriously thinking of releasing my 6 ISA's right now one .. by .. one.

 

 

 

[headmelter]

Either this is THE bargain of the century or the financial world has gone crazy.

 

Recommendation:

 

Fundamentals in tact

smokescreen

blood on streets

back up the truck

BUY GOLD BUY SILVER

Now.

 

I am seriously thinking of releasing my 6 ISA's right now one .. by .. one.

 

 

See my new signature.

 

I'm also thinking of releasing some ISA funds, but think we are headed for $770-$780. If things hold around about there I may need a bigger hole in the garden.

[cazlane]

Holy Moly these are some steep drops-can't blame this one on the PPT ppl See you at 666

[Steve Netwriter]

So little time today

 

A few thoughts for you:

 

 

Anyone who hasn't fully bought really does have an amazing opportunity here, if like me you believe in the long-term bull phase.

 

Don't try and catch a falling knife

 

And I agree with previous posters. Try and average in.

 

But IMO always have a minimum insurance.

 

[drbubb]

I agree if you're interested in looking at technicals to predict short term movements.

 

But I do think that non-US moves can say something about investors view of gold beyond America. From this I currently detect clues that most people outside the US think gold is becoming very cheap.

 

US dominance is apparent in most things, including global markets, but it won't last forever

 

Oh yes. I agree.

You must watch Gold's trading outside NY. But NY rules the charts

 

[bitbigt]

A few thoughts for you:

"Retrace to the takeoff in late 2007"

Great contribution - I think what you suggest makes every sense

 

If I may, I'd like to suggest a few fleshy bits to put on your model:

- A steady growth slope was apparent, and then the credit crunch hit last August. That is precisely when the long-short ratio of non-commercial contracts (i.e., speculators betting on an increase) jumped from 3 to 6 where it still is (see http://www.technicalindicators.com/cot2002.htm) and golds price started to rise at a much faster rate. Basically, people got scared!

- Then, late March, the fed stepped in and spent money to rescue Bear Sterns whilst brainwashing everyone into believing the 'credit crunch was all but over', so causing gold to immediately reverse downwards from a peak of 1030. I.e., people were no longer so scared!

- But after a fair correction of 20% in PoG, it was becoming clear that the economy wasn't fixed yet, plus oils price started to rocket, and so given these threats gold instantly reversed direction to rally back up from 880 to 980 in 2 short weeks. Yep, they got scared again!

- So by this stage gold was floating on an updraft of economic fear and high oil price

- Then, just last week, the dollar was artificially bolstered and oil made to tumble. The fed told everyone inflation was not a problem. So suddenly, everyone starts to have faith in the good ol' US of A again, and so there was nothing to keep gold at its lofty levels

- Finally, as the fall passed 850 (the floor everyone and his dog hoped would hold) all the stops triggered so accelerating the fall further ...yesterday

 

What a show

 

So as Steve Netwriter graphically illustrates, all the above has brought us back to the 'mundane' reality of gold at 750-800 on a steady uptrend of a mere 30% per year.

 

I personally now expect a brief overshoot to the downside, until oil decides to stop falling, the true weakness of the dollar becomes apparent, and inflation is seen to be persistent.

[drbubb]

This is what a bottom should look like:

 

The above is the Oil Holders etf (OIH) - includes shares of Oil Service companies.

It often leads Oil (USO), which has sometimes led Gold (GLD) also.

 

It made a low yesterday on light volume, and then rose on heavier volume.

That's a very positive sign, and now it looks set to break above that downtrend line.

 

If OIH opens higher on big volume, a bottom may be in place, and I think it is then likely

that a Gold bottom will come within a few days also.

[ologhai]

The problem that some of us have is that it's difficult to judge whether your position is self assured or fundamentalist.

 

Sounds as if you and I are in a similar position.

[notanewmember]

Can't believe I missed this news. This news is very significant in the PM market.

 

Monday , August 11, 2008

 

http://www.ftadviser.com/InvestmentAdviser...ls-platform.jsp

 

ETF Securities has launched the world’s first Shariah-compliant exchange-traded commodities precious metal platform.

 

Advertising

The platform will be headed by Sameer Meralli, head of sales for the Middle East and North Africa. ETF sought Shariah compliance after a growing demand from the Middle East, North Africa and Asia. Hector McNeil, managing partner at ETF Securities, said: “The launch was an exciting new development for Islamic investors to gain access to our entire physical precious metals platform, which includes gold, silver, palladium and platinum.”

 

Do you think this new security caused the drop? As it opened, a new pool of precious metals become available in the market.

[hotairmail]

Reuters video on gold.

 

http://uk.reuters.com/news/video?videoId=8...;videoChannel=5

[malco]

Nothing like a few bad days to bring out the jitterbugs...

 

Bunch of old women.

 

If you sold into this correction, shame on you....

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

Kitco chart starting to look like a landslide.

 

prefer this one

 

 

[notanewmember]

Reuters video on gold.

 

http://uk.reuters.com/news/video?videoId=8...;videoChannel=5

 

I saw these Olympic memorabilia pieces pretty much in all Jewllers and Bank of China branches. Very pretty and collectable.

 

Mark up was high though! I make it £30 per oz for a silver round, for a set of 5 with the mascots if I remember correctly

[Bobsta]

Not even Jim Sinclair can explain this hell - he has banned trader dan from posting the technical massacre.

 

Not any more. New Trader Dan charts up right now.

 

The drop in Silver has my jaw on the floor.