G0ldfinger Posted November 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 I think it's time for me to start buying gold & silver shares. The blood in the street is knee-deep, so to speak. I know, it could get even deeper. But knee-deep is pretty good for me. So, as a bullion-only buyer so far, with not much knowledge about mining shares, here is what I want to do: (1) I only want to consider (almost-) producers, no pure exploration games. (2) I want them to operate in mostly geopolitically safe areas. (3) I want them to have low costs per ounce, with a good buffer against falling prices, and good reserves/resources. (4) I want them to be cheap per ounce in the ground. (5) I want them to be profitable, with cash at hand, and not at the mercy of the banksters. (6) Optimally, I want to be able to put them in an ISA. One idea of mine was to have a look at Puplava's portfolio and pick a few that I like. A few names that I have in the back of my head, but haven't researched them in any detail so don't really know if they fit my above profile: - Yamana - Silver Standard Resources - Minefinders - ... I guess this post is in the wrong section, so maybe I am going to repost it in the mining section. I'm possibly outing myself as totally clueless/naive here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntergatherer Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 I bought Au two years ago near $600 and will be buying more when there are opportunities. I am up 30%, on a straight forward comparison, despite falling Au dollar price as I bought in sterling. (£315/oz spot compared to around £450/oz now and this does not include extra premiums through coin shortages) Prices drifting down to $600/$500 or possibly lower present real buying opportunities IMHO with inflation ahead in a few years time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 Some useful advice from Kitco? ``Investors should sell into rallies and only accumulate at $675, $640, $580, and $540 if those targets are reached,'' said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco Inc. in Montreal. ``Gold lost some of its safe-haven attributes in this last crisis. Liquidations and deflation are alive and well.'' No I think that's classic John Nadler. Implying further falls while acting like he is the goldbugs friend. Sheep + wolf's clothes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 The latest James Turk article is timely GoldMoney Alert - 2 November 2008 Gold Is Still in an Uptrend Gold is in an uptrend no matter which of the major currencies you look at. Here are charts of several major currencies as of Friday's close, which has added significance because it was also the end of a month. Day-traders and ‘scalpers' normally don't carry positions over weekends, so that noise is gone. And portfolio managers will generally position themselves carefully at month-end because that is when their performance is evaluated. So at Friday's close you are basically looking at positions being carried by so-called "strong hands". http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary/2008-11-02.html Gold versus a lot of fiat currencies. Also silver & CRB and US$ Index. That's UP trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 Current Economic Crisis Worse than the Great Depression Economics / Economic Depression Nov 02, 2008 - 08:08 PM By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7099.html Dow-Gold Ratio. The Dow-Gold ratio represents the most important ratio between the relative prices of financial assets and real assets. The Dow component represents the valuation of financial assets; the gold component – of real assets. When leverage in the financial system increases significantly, so does this ratio. A very high ratio is interpreted as an imbalance between financial and real assets – financial assets are grossly overvalued, while real assets are grossly undervalued. It also implies that a correction eventually will be necessary – either through deflation, which implies deleveraging and a collapsing stock market, or through inflation, which implies stagnant stock market for many years and steadily rising prices of real assets, commodities, and gold, usually associated with stagnant economy and typically resulting in stagflation. The first case—deflation—occurred during the 1930s, while the second case—stagflation—occurred during the 1970s. The graph below illustrates the above concepts. The very high Dow-Gold Ratio in 1929 was followed by the Great Depression, while the higher level in 1966 was followed by the stagflationary 70s. It is evident from the chart the peak in 2000 surpassed the previous two peaks in 1929 and 1966, so this provides a reasonable expectation that the forthcoming return to “normalcy” will be more painful than the Great Depression, at least in terms of cumulative pain over the next 10-15 years. Collapsing Bretton Woods II. The global monetary system was on a quasi-gold standard during the 1920s. Back then dollars and pounds were convertible to gold, while all other currencies were convertible to dollars and pounds. An appropriate way to think about it is that of a precursor to the Bretton Woods from 1945-1971. What is important to understand is that while the system was fiat in nature, gold imposed significant limitations to credit expansion and leveraging. Somewhat similar was the role of Bretton Woods that lasted from 1945 to 1971. The dollar was tied to gold, while all other fiat currencies were tied to the dollar. Just like the interwar period, gold imposed some limitations on credit and financial imbalances. We now live in what has been termed Bretton Woods II. Essentially, this is a pure fiat dollar standard, where all currencies are convertible to dollars, either at fixed or floating exchange rates, while the dollar itself is convertible to “nothing”. Thus, the dollar has no limitations imposed to it by gold, so without the discipline of gold, the current global monetary system has accumulated significantly more imbalances than ever before in modern capitalism. These imbalances show up in the international monetary system as unsustainable trade deficits (and surpluses), skyrocketing official dollar reserves in some European and many Asian central banks, and the proliferation of Sovereign Wealth Funds; more generally, these imbalances result in a myriad of bubbles, overleveraging, and other maladjustments already discussed above. Today Bretton Woods II is in the process of disintegration. The world is slowly but steadily losing its confidence in the dollar as the world reserve currency. A flight from the dollar is in progress and the collapse of the global monetary system is imminent. As Bretton Woods II disintegrates and a new system replaces it, the process of readjustment will be necessarily more painful than the respective process during the Great Depression. A caution on terminology is necessary here. While the literature over the last 10-20 years has widely recognized the term “Bretton Woods II”, in September-October of 2008 the term was widely used by the media to describe a proposed international summit with the goal of reconstructing a new international monetary system designed from scratch, just like “Bretton Woods”. Instantly dubbed by the media “Bretton Woods II”, this term could be potentially very confusing as it could mean very different things to different people. The interested reader should consult Wikipedia's Bretton Woods II where both meanings are explained in detail. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_II Investor beware! Only gold can protect you from the ravages of another Depression! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 Yes, I think Petrov makes a crucial point that we should focus on the relative ratio between the DOW and gold [elsewhere he refers to HOCG, high order capital goods and LOCG, low order capital goods] and NOT prices. Rising and falling prices can be extremely confusing and represent nothing real in the sense that they are arbitrary and relative to the value of other things. Fiat money 101 teaches well that it is difficult for prices to reflect true value especially in turbulent times. The DOW/gold ratio on the other hand is very clear and gives a better long range signal than the day to day noise we get from dollar prices. Of course, this all very well in theory but in practice it takes the breaking of a life-time's habit which tends to be money centric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 Boy's quick dump your physical and buy ETF's or gold from pool accounts, physical is apparently just "for rich guys"... BTW - Whilst the below quote makes complete sense, is this genuinely why there is a shortage of coins on the market at the moment? It certainly doesn't explain the shortage of silver or gold bullion bars... Does anyone care what year their bullions coins are stamped? Currently, the U.S. Mint is striking only a limited number of 2008 Eagles. The wholesalers are on allocation. No Buffalos are being shipped at all, although a small number might still be minted before the end of the year. By late December, dealers expect to start receiving 2009 coins. Bloomberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 This is just sheer, unadulterated rubbish and shows that the author has misunderstood the fundamental qualities of gold. Gold remains, as ever, THE safe haven. Ignore the price. It's meaningless. Perhaps I misunderstand where you're coming from, but this kind of reasoning puzzles me. Isn't gold 'the' safe haven because of its price (present and future)? Isn't its relative stability in value (which would be shown, for example, by its strengthening exchange rate against other weakening currencies, i.e. its increasing 'price') precisely why the price isn't meaningless? I imagine assertions like 'ignore the price; it's meaningless' are why non-goldbugs think that goldbugs might be a tad less objective about gold that they should be... It almost sounds like you're saying 'the price is unimportant -- just look how lovely and shiny it is!' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 Yes, I think Petrov makes a crucial point that we should focus on the relative ratio between the DOW and gold [elsewhere he refers to HOCG, high order capital goods and LOCG, low order capital goods] and NOT prices. Rising and falling prices can be extremely confusing and represent nothing real in the sense that they are arbitrary and relative to the value of other things. Fiat money 101 teaches well that it is difficult for prices to reflect true value especially in turbulent times. The DOW/gold ratio on the other hand is very clear and gives a better long range signal than the day to day noise we get from dollar prices. Of course, this all very well in theory but in practice it takes the breaking of a life-time's habit which tends to be money centric. Yes. I said I would stop comparing gold and fiat currencies, and yet I still do it I must try harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 It does make me wonder what will happen in the US, as gold is seen as anti-establishment, it doesn't take much to image the spin they could put on this. I can still get physical here in the USA. I have 2 suppliers that have never let me down. eBay is also a great source, no problems buying anything ref bullion, you name it, eBay has it, at a premium, of course. My suppliers are far cheaper. I cannot figure out why they do not arbitrage, or just sell on eBay!!! . Of course, things can change tomorrow, but at the moment, physical is just about doable. As for year, I have never cared. Gold is gold. Krugs tend to be a bit battered tho, which I don't like. I tend to stick with $50 Eagles (good alloy content which makes them difficult to scratch) as they are legal tender and will be more difficult to 'confiscate' within the USA. If things go mammaries up tho, Au like Maples and Philharmonics and Pandas may be fair game to the man, and be deemed to be terrorist metals (Al-Metal!!!)... Just bought 4 .9999 2009 Maples and am well pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 Peter Schiff getting more air-time these days and not having to yell over others. With a political twist. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=916889554&play=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 New mall opened in Dubai...bigger, better, etc.... Has an area we could all meet up though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich6400 Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 A person in Brussels got recently mugged of 44kg gold inside the bank when opening his locker. It's in the paper today... http://www.nieuwsblad.be/Article/Detail.as...leID=4622GP8O_1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 Couldn't have been a very quick get away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich6400 Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 EUR/USD: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke.../eurusd1101.png USD: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...d1102-daily.png CRB: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...102-monthly.png Gold monthly: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...102-monthly.png Gold weekly: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...1102-weekly.png Gold daily: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...d1102-daily.png I thought your charts were showing a downward trend in the POG. Now it is upwards? What has changed to make you think POG is now in an upwards trend? Is this just election euphoria that is causing upward movements in just about everything? Will POG bounce off 760 and move downwards again? I'm confused! Help is appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 ah ha......I know...I know.....what to do...... should we all sell our gold because it's at the top of the bull market.....apparently & buy shares.......they all look very, very cheap don't they......especially those builders & bankers :lol: oh & a few more..... :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 When I write a post I can't see the icons to add links images etc. Anybody else got this problem? I'm using the IP.Board Pro skin at the moment. (I tried to post this in the "New Skin" thread but it wouldn't post.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 Just a test to see if I can post. I don't think it worked Wren. edited - stop editing your posts, otherwise it makes my comical replies look sh1te. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 I don't think it worked Wren. edited - stop editing your posts, otherwise it makes my comical replies look sh1te. Haha. Well, when I saw that it worked I decided to use the post for something useful like that lack of icons problem. No smileys either, except the ones I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 I thought your charts were showing a downward trend in the POG. Now it is upwards? What has changed to make you think POG is now in an upwards trend? Is this just election euphoria that is causing upward movements in just about everything? Will POG bounce off 760 and move downwards again? I'm confused! Help is appreciated. It's just Ker's Super SuckerTM gold trading system. Buy on strength, cristallize loss at the central-bank-chart-painted bottom, go short, whipsaw, margin call, new loss, buy on strength, repeat over and over until you go broke in the midst of the greatest gold bull market in human history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich6400 Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 It's just Ker's Super SuckerTM gold trading system. Buy on strength, cristallize loss at the central-bank-chart-painted bottom, go short, whipsaw, margin call, new loss, buy on strength, repeat over and over until you go broke in the midst of the greatest gold bull market in human history. It will make your eyes water if you knew how much I have lost! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 It will make your eyes water if you knew how much I have lost! Yours would water even more if you knew how much I have won! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 MUHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA The gold bottom is now in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgleeson Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 MUHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA "But May 06 held", but why? Gold mines close if the price drops lower perhaps? Care to spread the secret sauce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now