GOLD

[grumpy-old-man]

I love that, the nutter club; my name is on the list and I am coming in.

 

you have to pass the test first.

 

tell at least 3 random strangers that house prices will crash by 90% at worst & the depression is coming & WILL be worse than the 30's.

I kid you not

My sandwich board is ordered.

[Mr Pipples]

 

 

You are getting just an itsy bit paranoid, GF. Nothing weird happened. Many commentators called it correctly. I think your "all in plus the overdraft" approach may be slightly distorting your perceptions of reality. "I called it wrong", (for now at least), may be a much simpler explanation that fits all the facts?

 

As for panicing "insecure suckers", the gold bug rhetoric of "buy now, all in now, or it will be too late, and you will be ruined, muhahahaha" is pretty blatant in that respect.

 

There was this, as an example: Silver market fixing under official investigation - http://arabianmoney.net/2008/09/25/silver-...-investigation/

 

...Official data from the CFTC showed that two U.S. banks had increased short positions in the silver futures market between July and August by 450% and controlled 25% of the total open interest.

[gwizzie]

**cough**

[Justin Thyme]

I bought in to silver at this point partly because of Cgnao's call.

 

You're a brave individual buying into a market on the say-so of a "bloke on an internet messageboard".

 

CGNAO is quality but I don't think he sets too much store by timing. His suggestions are - rightly or wrongly - driven by his sheer belief that the world's going to hell in a handbasket.

 

I would create a massive paper sell-off, and then I would send some of the crooks who work for me into forums and let them pretend to have superior TA knowledge so that all the insecure suckers would follow them...

 

I've learned to take all the TA charts and false dawns with the proverbial pinch. Frankly, I think that in this type of market, it's all bullshit. There've been all sorts of excuses put forward to explain gold's lacklustre performance since March. Sure, it's held up better than the rest of the commodity complex but, if all the waffle written by all the commentators since then was to be believed, gold really ought to be at $1200 right now.

 

Very few, if any, saw the massive deflationary deleveraging and repatriation of dollars to the US although they beat the credit default swap implosion drum for all they were worth and fewer still are able to suggest how the deleveraging is going to fizzle out and mutate into the hyperinflation we've read so much about. If defaults on financial and corporate bonds are, by all accounts, set to mount over the coming months, won't banks and hedge funds keep selling assets and shorting PMs with the global central banks' blessing in order to raise dollars thereby prolonging the deflation that many here have sworn is merely a temporary phenomenon ?

[cgnao]

Very few, if any, saw the massive deflationary deleveraging and repatriation of dollars to the US

 

Deflationary deleveraging my *~^%#*

 

 

Note for ignorant suckers: ESF is the US Exchange Stabilization Fund

 

http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/international-affairs/esf/

Exchange Stabilization Fund

Introduction

The Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) consists of three types of assets: U.S. dollars, foreign currencies, and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)1. The financial statement of the ESF can be accessed through the links on the right hand side to either "Latest Financial Reports" or "Finances & Operations."

 

The ESF can be used to purchase or sell foreign currencies, to hold U.S. foreign exchange and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) assets, and to provide financing to foreign governments. All operations of the ESF require the explicit authorization of the Secretary of the Treasury ("the Secretary").

 

The Secretary is responsible for the formulation and implementation of U.S. international monetary and financial policy, including exchange market intervention policy. The ESF helps the Secretary to carry out these responsibilities. By law, the Secretary has considerable discretion in the use of ESF resources.

 

The legal basis of the ESF is the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. As amended in the late 1970s, the Act provides in part that "the Department of the Treasury has a stabilization fund …Consistent with the obligations of the Government in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on orderly exchange arrangements and an orderly system of exchange rates, the Secretary …, with the approval of the President, may deal in gold, foreign exchange, and other instruments of credit and securities."

[Compounded]

Only a sucKer would trade gold using Technical Analysis.

 

How very true.

 

Trading gold is too difficult for me but some are much cleverer than me of that I am certain.

 

CG I am certain you are cleverer than me me, BTW I wish you health and happiness - as for wealth I gotta feeling you dont need anyones wishes.

 

 

too late now GF, I have been in the nutter club for well over a year & you were there before me.

 

 

I love that, the nutter club; my name is on the list and I am coming in.

 

It just shows how effective the propaganda from the elite has been that saving in a money that long term holds value could be equated by many of the most intelligent as the actions of a nutter.

 

Some very old and very hard lessons will be relearnt when paper money reverts to its intrinsic value.

 

 

you have to pass the test first.

 

tell at least 3 random strangers that house prices will crash by 90% at worst & the depression is coming & WILL be worse than the 30's.

I kid you not

My sandwich board is ordered.

 

I tell no one and hope that gold savers are so few that in the coming crisis the power cannot be bothered to confiscate.

 

[grumpy-old-man]

I tell no one and hope that gold savers are so few that in the coming crisis the power cannot be bothered to confiscate.

 

I only say things like this to p1ss the greedy off or to help those that might listen, phrased accordingly . The ratio seems to be about 99 to 1 so far in my life in the UK, apart from the year I lived in Brittany, met some very nice, hard working people.

[grumpy-old-man]

It just shows how effective the propaganda from the elite has been that saving in a money that long term holds value could be equated by many of the most intelligent as the actions of a nutter.

 

yes, it concerns me just how dumbed down people have become........very stepford.

We will be punished for this type of free thinking at some point in our lives.

[Steve Netwriter]

http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/international-affairs/esf/

Exchange Stabilization Fund

Introduction

The Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) consists of three types of assets: U.S. dollars, foreign currencies, and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)1. The financial statement of the ESF can be accessed through the links on the right hand side to either "Latest Financial Reports" or "Finances & Operations."

 

Cheers CG

 

Note this is from:

 

Department of the Treasury

1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW

Washington, D.C. 20220

 

Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr.

Deputy Secretary Robert M. Kimmitt

 

 

So, does ANYONE want to suggest this is not true ?

 

[wrongmove]

Cheers CG

 

Note this is from:

 

Department of the Treasury

1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW

Washington, D.C. 20220

 

Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr.

Deputy Secretary Robert M. Kimmitt

 

 

So, does ANYONE want to suggest this is not true ?

 

This is no secret. Governments often intervene to support their currencies. Details of SDR here: IMF

 

SDR is run by the IMF. The IMF hold gold, but do not use it for "trading". (Gold in the IMF). Otherwise, the SDR just holds major currencies.

 

 

 

 

[electroweak]

This is no secret. Governments often intervene to support their currencies. Details of SDR here: IMF

 

SDR is run by the IMF. The IMF hold gold, but do not use it for "trading". (Gold in the IMF). Otherwise, the SDR just holds major currencies.

The ESF appear to have blown half their wad in the last month or two getting the EUR/USD from 1.60 to 1.27

[G0ldfinger]

Azazel, your inbox is full. Anyway, 2011-12 was always like a minimum investment horizon for me. It could take longer. But the picture will be much clearer by then, while at the moment the deflation/inflation confusion is blocking the views.

[qwerty]

Deflationary deleveraging my *~^%#*

 

Been keeping an eye on Inflation Linked Treasury TIPS and the 5 year Treasuries seems like they are on the move ? Deflation.?

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

...

Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr.

...

I would love to know how Paulson will restructure his private portfolio now that it soon won't underly any scrutiny anymore.

 

100% gold?

[wrongmove]

The ESF appear to have blown half their wad in the last month or two getting the EUR/USD from 1.60 to 1.27

 

It's hard to believe that selling a 'mere' 12B euro would have achieved that going to do that. 'Billions' are so 2007!

 

 

 

Certainly does look correlated though, but I would have thought 12B would be "lost in the noise" of recent 'traffic'.

[romans holiday]

 

Ker, I do enjoy your charts. As for predictions in POG, do you make them on the basis of the day's trading traffic? What I mean is yesterday you envisaged $840 and today is has been revised to $680. Not having a go here, just wondering if the second price replaces the first in your mind or whether they both still stand within different time frames?

 

Also wondering if you would have better success if you took a slightly longer term approach. Or maybe you are solely concerned with a short term trade. If so, could I ask if you trade yourself on the basis of your predictions?

[wrongmove]

 

Just saw this advertised on TV: Got gold? Get cash!

 

They are offering around 50% of spot! (To buy, of course)

 

Collect together all of your old, unwanted, damaged and broken gold...

 

 

unwanted, broken gold???

[Compounded]

Just saw this advertised on TV: Got gold? Get cash!

 

They are offering around 50% of spot! (To buy, of course)

 

 

 

 

unwanted, broken gold???

 

£5.43 per gram 9kt gold on Baird they are offering £3.80

 

Rip off or what??

 

Broken gold is an odd phrase.

[warpig]

Venezuela to Take Control of Crystallex's Gold Mine

 

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela's government said it will take over the Las Cristinas gold mine operated by Crystallex International Corp. in 2009 to assure state control of the metals industry. Crystallex plunged 25 percent in Toronto trading.

 

Venezuela's socialist government has seized control of steel, energy and cement industries that President Hugo Chavez has deemed ``strategic.'' Mining Minister Rodolfo Sanz said in the statement that the government plans to develop large areas of other mining deposits to increase production of gold, diamonds, bauxite and uranium.

 

The global financial crisis has made it necessary for Venezuela to assume control of its gold deposits, which can be used to increase the country's international reserves, Sanz said.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aMzsUZRx75RY

[G0ldfinger]

Venezuela to Take Control of Crystallex's Gold Mine

...

I think they're oil production cost is north of $80 if I heard that right. Then this would makes sense. However, $80 seems high.

[Bobsta]

What I mean is yesterday you envisaged $840 and today is has been revised to $680. Not having a go here, just wondering if the second price replaces the first in your mind or whether they both still stand within different time frames?

 

Also wondering if you would have better success if you took a slightly longer term approach. Or maybe you are solely concerned with a short term trade. If so, could I ask if you trade yourself on the basis of your predictions?

I asked Ker the same(ish) question a couple of weeks ago. Response here.

 

I agree that sometimes Ker's forecasts appear to be contradictory when taken at face value. However, I think

(and Ker can confirm) that all that's happening is Ker is making a prediction based on an event occurring and then later if that situation isn't met, providing a revised forecast. e.g. "if we break 750 we'll see 790 before going lower" ... then 6 hours later "we didn't make it through 750 so we're off to 680 now".

 

I'd never trade based solely on someone else's predictions and charts - but if I wanted to, I think I would find it hard to based on Ker's charts. I also feel that producing two (or three) different predictions based on looking at daily and weekly (and monthly) charts is interesting but doesn't really provide any tradable info. The complex bit is combining input from *all* the time period charts, as well as fundamentals and external factors to make an informed prediction.

 

I can't do it. So right now I don't try. Ker does seem to have a reasonable rate of success but it's difficult to follow when the call gets cancelled/changed.

[wrongmove]

I think they're oil production cost is north of $80 if I heard that right. Then this would makes sense. However, $80 seems high.

 

Oil has only ever sold for $80+ for less than a year from last autumn, so I agree, it does seem high. It is hard to imagine anyone developing a well that costs that much, bearing in mind that $80 oil is such a recent development.

 

[G0ldfinger]

Oil has only ever sold for $80+ for less than a year from last autumn, so I agree, it does seem high. It is hard to imagine anyone developing a well that costs that much, bearing in mind that $80 oil is such a recent development.

...

I think it was mentioned by Eric King on FSN. However, it seems indeed as if Venezuela is getting more desperate.

[romans holiday]

I've learned to take all the TA charts and false dawns with the proverbial pinch. Frankly, I think that in this type of market, it's all bullshit. There've been all sorts of excuses put forward to explain gold's lacklustre performance since March. Sure, it's held up better than the rest of the commodity complex but, if all the waffle written by all the commentators since then was to be believed, gold really ought to be at $1200 right now.

 

Very few, if any, saw the massive deflationary deleveraging and repatriation of dollars to the US although they beat the credit default swap implosion drum for all they were worth and fewer still are able to suggest how the deleveraging is going to fizzle out and mutate into the hyperinflation we've read so much about. If defaults on financial and corporate bonds are, by all accounts, set to mount over the coming months, won't banks and hedge funds keep selling assets and shorting PMs with the global central banks' blessing in order to raise dollars thereby prolonging the deflation that many here have sworn is merely a temporary phenomenon ?

 

Hi JT- FWIW, I “came out” and started beating the deflationary drum three months ago, yet have never been concerned with the amount of gold I held. Rather, I felt it was a bit simplistic to equate the need to hold gold with inflation [thinking not to put all your ideas in one basket here]. In the face of a looming crisis, where the deflationary credit crisis came to the fore, I wondered why it was necessary to heavily subscribe to one scenario, that of inflation. Some may say this is cognitive dissonance where you seek to further rationalize a position when confronted with evidence undermining it. But I am not so rational as to have to have first fully thought out reasons for my investment decisions [many rationalists, unconvinced of anything, could be left holding worthless paper one day]. No, I follow my instincts, and then seek to reasonably justify them.

 

Given the brewing crisis, my instinct was to get some gold, and if the crisis plays out one way or the other, inflationary or deflationary, my instinct remains to hold onto the bit of gold I have. Obviously, the current crisis is unique and accordingly I do not think we can afford to be overly reliant on a previous explanatory model which identified the performance of gold with inflation. Even though I recognize the inflationist’s claims that the monetary supply, purely considered, is astronomically increasing, this may be negated in practice due to both continued asset deflation and a protracted credit crisis effectively freezing this money. Rather, my prime reason for owning gold now is the damage that will be done to the government’s balance sheet as they attempt to reflate. This will surely have latter-day consequences for the value of the dollar and may even prove to be the catalyst whereby a “hyper” inflation begins.

 

To sum up, I do not view inflation/deflation as an either/or proposition as to whether one should hold gold or not. I see both of them as reasons to hold gold.

[sash777]

I would create a massive paper sell-off, and then I would send some of the crooks who work for me into forums and let them pretend to have superior TA knowledge so that all the insecure suckers would follow them...

 

EDIT: Should this post be in the conspiracy thread? I don't want people to think I'm a nutter.

 

Somehow I think our Gov'ts have other things on their minds than posting on forums to influence a very small minority. This is actually one of the most worrying comments I've read on here in a long time and for a small moment made me feel like I'd been suckered into joining a cult with no grip on reality.