GOLD

[Pixel8r]

Pessimist

 

I much prefer Alf Field's analysis of $10,000

[id5]

I can’t link directly. Go to this page

 

http://goldmoney.com/en/cap.html

 

And then click "CAP for Companies Form" (about half way down the page on the left side)

 

Found it.

 

It doesn't tally up with the statement on the CAP for Companies Form which states a max balance of $250K before extra checking is required. Looks like GoldMoney has made a mistake.

[Pixel8r]

Found it.

 

It doesn't tally up with the statement on the CAP for Companies Form which states a max balance of $250K before extra checking is required. Looks like GoldMoney has made a mistake.

 

I have emailed James Turk about this, will clarify when he responds.

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=23810

THE GOLD RUSH IS ON!

 

By Adrian Douglas

 

The article that appeared in the Financial Times today and circulated by GATA is very significant. What is especially significant is the necessity to supply disinformation

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/077b765c-c77c-11...?nclick_check=1

 

QUOTE

 

Traders have been hearing talk that the gold market could face a potential squeeze at the end of this year if market participants with futures position on New York's Comex exchange decide not to roll over their positions, because of concerns about counterparty risk and opt for physical delivery instead. But dealers dismissed the threat of a squeeze, pointing out that Comex gold stocks stand at 8.5 million ounces, well above the five-year average of almost 6 million ounces. ...

 

END

 

The 8.5 million ozs which is referred to here is the total COMEX inventory. This includes gold that belongs to customers who are storing it on the exchange. The amount that is registered to dealers, and therefore available for delivery, is only 2.846 Million ozs. The delivery notices that have been issued so far in December total 1.26 Million ozs which is 44% of the available deliverable gold. This assumes that the gold registered to dealers is totally unencumbered which is not necessarily a good assumption in the fuzzy accounting world that is now a Wall St. reality.

 

What is very telling is that the reason for investors taking delivery is given as "counterparty risk". They could have said that it was due to investors "wanting the safe haven of gold in times of financial crisis" etc etc. Stating unequivocally "counterparty risk" as the reason high delivery demands are occurring is the first reference to the possibility of COMEX going into default that has appeared in the mainstream press. It is also of note that it appeared in the FT which is traditionally anti-gold.

 

The pieces of the puzzle are falling into place.

 

* The CB’s are selling only a fraction of their WAG allowance

* Coin melt bars are showing up on the wholesale market indicative of the bottom of the barrel

* The US mint is rationing coins

* The Perth Mint has suspended taking orders for any bullion products

* Retail dealers are sold out and only small quantities of PM’s are available

* The traditional major shorts on TOCOM have covered their massive short positions

* Prices in the retail market are very much higher than COMEX spot

* Significant reduction in Contango has been observed and even some backwardation

* A disconnect has formed between COMEX paper gold trading and physical gold markets

 

Ever since July when one or possibly two US banks sold short 10% of the annual global gold supply and 20% of annual global silver supply (as confirmed by reporting issued by the CFTC) the COMEX price has been disconnected from the physical market and has become the last bastion of the multi-year gold price suppression scheme. Without a doubt the hammering down of the paper gold price made many leveraged speculators head for the exits, as demonstrated by the fact that the Open Interest has reduced by 50%. However, the investors who remain are not leveraged and unfortunately for the Gold Cartel are taking delivery from the COMEX. Talk of a squeeze due to "counterparty risk" will no doubt encourage more investors to take delivery. We will probably see Contango in the further out months reduce and gold be purchased in the cash market as investors switch from future IOU’s to real metal. This may even provoke a much more pronounced Backwardation than we have already seen in recent days.

 

Make no mistake about this. We are seeing the early signs of a gold rush like the world has never seen before. Investors do not take physical delivery of gold to sell it back for a 10% profit. The inflation adjusted high of gold in 1980 is today $2500. However, today we are in the midst of a global financial crisis the likes of which we have never witnessed in the whole of recorded history. Simultaneously every country in the world is hell bent on currency destruction as an anti-dote to too much debt creation. What is gold worth in such a scenario? Who knows but it is multiples of where it is now. The precious metals that are being taken off the market will not see the light of day again for a long time. The Central Banks have almost stopped selling gold and mine supply is dropping year after year.

 

My unique analysis methods at www.mareketforceanalysis.com indicate that gold and silver are at very good buy points. Gold and silver are selling for almost their cost of production so the downside is severely limited because no commodity can trade below its cost of production for very long because producers go out of business thereby reducing supply which increases the price.

 

An ex-FED Governor appeared on Canadian TV yesterday saying that the FED could rebalance it’s balance sheet by allowing gold to be re-valued to $5000 to $10,000 per oz. This suggests that it is in the hands of the FED. If the shorts on COMEX get squeezed and COMEX defaults on physical delivery, the market not the FED, will decide the true value of gold.

 

How many times do you get advance warning of what will likely be the trade of the century? There is no such thing as a risk free trade but I think this is as good as it ever gets!

 

Investors should take physical delivery and not be leveraged. This way you will make sure you are around for payday and you will put more pressure on the shorts who have fraudulently sold gold and silver that they are unable to deliver.

 

Whether there is a massive squeeze on the COMEX in December or February is irrelevant. The Gold Rush is on!

 

When gold and silver become unavailable prices will have to go up by multiples. The beaten up mining sector will reach new highs. When the precious metals are not available in bullion form the next best alternative for investors will be companies who dig them out the ground.

 

Adrian Douglas

[/b]

 

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Catflap]

Bad link in there, should be:

 

http://marketforceanalysis.com/

 

[tinecu]

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=23810

 

An ex-FED Governor appeared on Canadian TV yesterday saying that the FED could rebalance it’s balance sheet by allowing gold to be re-valued to $5000 to $10,000 per oz.

 

I just wanted to repeat that.

 

 

[warpig]

I'll keep this short and to the point if I may. I have 6 figures (£) to safeguard and I'm not convinced I have the luxury of averaging in to PM's as I had with my savings, I feel behind the curve. So my questions are at this late stage:

 

1) Would you keep any in cash in any currency?

2) What percentage physical gold would you buy?

3) What percentage physical silver would you buy?

4) What else would you buy to make sure you don't put all of your eggs in one basket? NS&I indexed linked certs?

5) Given the rate of decline and we're at the 11th hour, over what time frame would you average in to be safe?

 

I know these questions have come up time and time again, but on this one I've lost my confidence. This is only 50% of my money and when it comes to safeguarding someone else's future, all of a sudden the waters are muddied and the burden of financial responsibility grows quite heavy, I need a plan.

 

All replies gratefully received...

[Steve Netwriter]

I just came on to say: £553.70/oz and rising fast.

 

That turn-around in the EURUS$ has certainly made a difference.

 

 

warpig,

I don't really know what to say. I've so far managed to avoid directly suggesting anything other than 10% in gold as a minimum. I feel safe in suggesting that no matter what happens.

I'm afraid all I can suggest is my usual 3x, gold, silver and Yen, although the Yen route was very very much more obvious and safer when the GBPJPY was up at 248 than now at 136.

I wouldn't disagree with anyone suggesting anywhere from 10% to 100% in gold, but I feel it has to be a personal judgement.

 

Don't forget that although property will probably not maintain value, it is a safe haven if there is no debt involved, so IMO should not be totally ignored as a possibility.

[wren]

There are few gold bulls on this thread (myself included - medium to long term mind) so be warned.

 

Note that I'm single with no wife or kids to worry about. I might not go so long PMs otherwise.

 

I'll keep this short and to the point if I may. I have 6 figures (£) to safeguard and I'm not convinced I have the luxury of averaging in to PM's as I had with my savings, I feel behind the curve. So my questions are at this late stage:

 

1) Would you keep any in cash in any currency?

Yes, some in the local cash (euros in my case) - 10%.

2) What percentage physical gold would you buy?

50%

3) What percentage physical silver would you buy?

40%

4) What else would you buy to make sure you don't put all of your eggs in one basket? NS&I indexed linked certs?

I'm not in the UK.

5) Given the rate of decline and we're at the 11th hour, over what time frame would you average in to be safe?

 

I know these questions have come up time and time again, but on this one I've lost my confidence. This is only 50% of my money and when it comes to safeguarding someone else's future, all of a sudden the waters are muddied and the burden of financial responsibility grows quite heavy, I need a plan.

 

All replies gratefully received...

11th hour - I understand the feeling.

 

I don't know. I'm buying silver and Nov to Feb feels not too uncomfortable to me. Maybe a bit later than Feb, I'll see how it goes. But this is silver.

 

About gold, I'm happy not to have to worry. I might get more early next year if I have the cash.

 

I think the most important consideration, assuming you are looking medium to long term, is do you actually believe in the fundamentals? or better to say, how much do you believe in the fundamentals? This will influence your percentages, of course.

[Wanderer]

Hey, Warpig, don't worry so much about being 11th hour. Some of us who got into Silver etc. at the 9th or 10th hour are now nursing big losses!

 

Silver and silver miners e.g. SLW have scope for considerable growth in my view.

 

Gold has a way to go still, although I'm fighting the temptation to take short term profits with Gold at 550 an ounce.

 

Several people on this forum think Oil is due a bounce.

 

If you feel you are late to the party, you might want to look at gold and silver stocks rather than bullion itself, as these have more scope than the underlying metal for growth (think of them as a leveraged play in many cases).

 

If it helps you know how othersw are spread, I'm 58% gold (some allocated and reserved in my name, others in ETFs - more liquid), 5% silver, 6% silver stocks, 5% oil, 5% UK stocks in a managed fund, a few odds and sods e.g. Premium bonds, and 20% cash of which some is in Euros. I'm now trying to thin down my cash and looking to put more in oil or stocks.

 

Much of my portfolio 'evolved' rather than grew to a planned strategy. Now that I'm largely profitably invested, I want to more actively plan where my portfolio will be in a few months time and a few years' time. Otherwise I risk it will simply continue 'evolving' as before, which wasn't maximising profits.

[FWIW]

Hi Warpig,

 

You will sleep better at night owning metals during this catastrophe as it plays out - I do, that's for sure. When I was playing gold and silver stocks up to about a year ago, I was not sleeping at night - too volatile and I could sense a general DOW crash, which would pull all metals stocks down, so I got out.

 

At one point I was 50 per cent of all my net worth in AUY Yamana (I got a bit carried away day-trading!), margined x 2 too!, around 15 or 16 dollars, just for a few days, and then I had my epihany and got out completely, and of course AUY collapsed to 4 or 5, and is rebounding to 6, but if I had stayed in, I woud have been wiped out, especially on margin.

 

Prior to this I was 100% in metals, silver gold in a 60/40% ratio. Ideally, long term, gold is the SAFEST way to go, but I always have a problem with patience, tho trying to change that.

 

I sold half to play the gold and silver miners, and now am fully 100% invested in silver 100oz bars, kept in a safe place on my property. The ratio of gold to silver is exceptionally high now, around 80 to 1, and I am going to switch between gold and silver as this volatile ratio swings up and down. I will do all this with physical, not digital trades. It has all worked well so far regarding the trading, but I am well underwater because of the silver collapse. However I am not margined, so can wait it out for silver to rebound to 20 and head north. I originally bought gold at 630, and silver at 13.30 - I am still buying silver at 10'ish, and I guess I am averaged in at maybe 14/15/16'ish, I don't know. At the moment I look at my stash and say to myself, the world financial system is collapsing in slow motion, be patient, because when gold goes to 1200 next April, silver will follow at 30, when gold hits 2500, silver will follow exponentially. I've also just bought a large chunk of gold at Gmoney to cover my daughter's future, by means of transferring out of a zombie pension fund I was in and going for a Gmoney SIPP.

 

1) Would you keep any in cash in any currency?

 

Not much, no. For me, a few thousand bux is all I keep in cash. My other half and I know the score, and know that a black swan at any time can change things v quickly indeed, and black swans can in Murphy's law fashion come along in pairs or triplets (see Taleb) - so you gotta be in it to win it. I expect to be protected with metals, but I also expect to become quite 'rich' in a detrioratingly awful world when the collapse occurs in earnest, my eventual aim being to sell most metals at the right time in exchange for a safe house in a safe place with resources, i.e a yacht too, for self sufficiency. So practically speaking I don't need cash - if I need cash QUICKLY I go to my local gold/coin/pawn shop guy and he gives me cash on the nose for a 100oz bar, no paperwork, no trail, if I can wait 2 weeks I put the bar on eBay and get an extra 300 bux. This is like averaging out! It is safer than a bank - who needs cash. And once gold/silver uptrend again, you are merely dipping into your savings! Remember, gold is MONEY!!! IT IS CASH!!!

 

2) What percentage physical gold would you buy?

 

100% silver at this high ratio. If silver hits 25 or 30 next spring and the ratio drops to 50 or less, swap for gold. Repeat back and forth, in physical only.

 

3) What percentage physical silver would you buy?

 

I am a gambler so silver holds by far the most potential upside. It will way outperform gold at current artificial prices. When silver spikes tho, it does tend to collapse v quickly, the trick is to swap into cash or gold at the right time. And for me I would only cash out to buy a house or farm. So depending on endgame circumstances I would go gold again.

 

4) What else would you buy to make sure you don't put all of your eggs in one basket? NS&I indexed linked certs?

 

No paper at all, we are in endgame collapse. Get out of the UKPound, it is going to collapse big time.

 

5) Given the rate of decline and we're at the 11th hour, over what time frame would you average in to be safe?

 

I would go all in immediately to be SAFE - if you wait, something may happen out of left field, and it may cost you more to get in. Silver at 10 is a total giveaway, I don't care if it drops to 5 again, because eventually it will be trading in the 100s of dollars. Also, hold physical ONLY - no paper gold at all.

 

I'm sure this is all too gung-ho for you Warpig, but I hope it gives you some ideas. Good luck whatever you do!

 

 

Warpig - CDS just gave you the most comprehensive answer I have ever read!

 

Bravo!

 

Keep it real, keep it physical!

[FWIW]

Short and sweet article:

 

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Dyson/dec122008.html

 

 

[allyjcambo]

Warpig - CDS just gave you the most comprehensive answer I have ever read!

 

Bravo!

 

Keep it real, keep it physical!

 

Agreed. That was a fantastic post CDSwamp. Very candid.

[bitbigt]

I'll keep this short and to the point if I may. I have 6 figures (£) to safeguard and I'm not convinced I have the luxury of averaging in to PM's as I had with my savings, I feel behind the curve. So my questions are at this late stage:

 

1) Would you keep any in cash in any currency?

2) What percentage physical gold would you buy?

3) What percentage physical silver would you buy?

4) What else would you buy to make sure you don't put all of your eggs in one basket? NS&I indexed linked certs?

5) Given the rate of decline and we're at the 11th hour, over what time frame would you average in to be safe?

 

I know these questions have come up time and time again, but on this one I've lost my confidence. This is only 50% of my money and when it comes to safeguarding someone else's future, all of a sudden the waters are muddied and the burden of financial responsibility grows quite heavy, I need a plan.

 

All replies gratefully received...

I'd start by asking myself the following kind of questions...

 

- in which countries (currencies) are you likely to want to live in the future

- how many years are you likely to be around, and do you want to use your wealth or leave some to others

- since wealth is no use whatsoever if never used by anyone, what do you want this money to be used for and when (as a longer time frame means you can tolerate more risk)

- do you have a fully paid for home, and would it be a good idea to get more than one?

- how soon might you need to get your hands on the money again, for what purpose(s) (don't lock it up or place too risky bets, if you may need it in next year or two)

- are you looking to invest (make profit from) this money, or secure its purchasing power (in which case NS&I is fine)

- are you the type of person who will worry about risky investments every day, and if so, are you OK with imposing that stress on yourself

- what would it do to you if you lost most of the money (or its purchasing power)?

- are you over the inheritance tax limit, and if so perhaps you should give some away now (on the assumption you'll live for >7 more years in the UK, after which the gift falls out of your taxable estate)

 

...hope that helps!

[bitbigt]

W T F just happened ????????? [given that PMs just jumped 2%, and USD/GBP just fell 0.4% in 1/2 hr]

 

- did Whitehouse decide to bale out the big 3 or something?

 

 

[jinbal]

W T F just happened ?????????

 

USD getting a pasting today - even against GBP

[marceau]

W T F just happened ????????? [given that PMs just jumped 2%, and USD/GBP just fell 0.4% in 1/2 hr]

 

- did Whitehouse decide to bale out the big 3 or something?

 

 

They were at critical support/resistance and broke through. For gold, breaking through $834 means an attempt at major resistance around the $900 mark is a good probability.

 

If it goes through $900, then the shorts will get squeezed to hell and we'll probably pop back to the highs above $1000 in a very short space of time. But I can't see that happening for few months yet.

 

Edit: I guess the market is finally waking up to the inflation risk. The Fed really let the cat out of the bag when it started buying Fannie and Freddy debt directly.

[bitbigt]

USD getting a pasting today - even against GBP

Yes indeed! ...and so why the hell are the UK media only harping on about the pound falling against the Euro?

 

The USD is falling against the pound, and so the USD is falling dramatically against the Euro (which is a large part of the basket behind the USDX). Surely this collapse of the USD is a far bigger story than the demise of turdling?

 

[bitbigt]

I guess the market is finally waking up to the inflation risk. The Fed really let the cat out of the bag when it started buying Fannie and Freddy debt directly.

 

I wish they would!!!

 

The shed-loads of new money that's been created by all the debt and loans that have been issued over the last 15 years has not gone away, its just 'sleeping'. That 'sleeping' is what people call reduced velocity of money, and its only a temporary phenomenon. After which, we can add on top the new money from all this government debt, and its 20% inflation here we come!!!

[G0ldfinger]

W T F just happened ????????? ....

 

OPEC, of course.

[bitbigt]

 

OPEC, of course.

you could be right...

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7784158.stm

[FWIW]

We need to break through 845 and then we will break free from the COMEX gravity field!

[dom]

Who's got short positions on US treasuries?

[Pixel8r]

Here's a response from James Turk, Re: setting up a company goldmoney account. I had questioned him on the $500,000 minimum.

 

Hi xxxx

 

Until getting your email, I didn't realize that there was a minimum purchase for companies. I'm the founder and a director of GoldMoney, but not an officer of the company. So I don't get involved in the day-to-day management and am not familiar with all operating aspects of the company.

 

What I am told is that there is a lot of work on our part to do CAP for companies because the requirements are so much more difficult. Therefore, by putting a minimum purchase limit for companies, we can make sure that we at least cover our costs for the time/work we need to spend on the CAP for a company account.

 

I understand that this policy will change in the future as we continue to build our staff to process CAP.

 

Regards

James

 

[frizzers]

http://www.gata.org/node/4843