GOLD

[Pixel8r]

I think you sould see Bubb's GLD options thread for the whys and wherefores.. i.e. leverage etc..

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=6327

I think Bubb is trying (and succeeding) to educate us about options and their virtues (and vices!).

 

I don't think I'd trade them (options)

except as a small supplemental to a core physical position, but they are a useful addition.

I am not sold on the idea of using leverage on Gold. I follow Jim Sinclair's teachings on gold and he has always warned against using leverage, with the recent correction I can see why.

 

I do understand how options work a bit and have realised that it is not something I would feel confident doing.

 

My comment was on how it was a very large position to take when only last week he was saying that gold will drop.

 

 

[romans holiday]

pog looking indecisive here... could break either way.

 

I am staying half dollars and half gold with my "fishing line" account at the moment [i use the Jim Sinclair term as some here seem averse to the term "trading" ]

A win win situation; if gold spikes can sell and if it tracks down again can buy.

 

I hope others here are keeping some serious powder dry.

[sash777]

Is anyone else starting to stock up on home electronics? I'm reluctant to buy more Gold at the moment, don't want my cash sitting in the bank so am tempted with a new hoover, widescreen tv, washing machine etc. Few things that we could do with, and are likely to have risen significantly in price by the end of Summer when the currency lag starts to kick in.

[headmelter]

Is anyone else starting to stock up on home electronics? I'm reluctant to buy more Gold at the moment, don't want my cash sitting in the bank so am tempted with a new hoover, widescreen tv, washing machine etc. Few things that we could do with, and are likely to have risen significantly in price by the end of Summer when the currency lag starts to kick in.

 

 

Yes.

New computer, dvd recorder, nintendo wii and ds lites for kids already bought.

 

planning new tv for playroom to maintain sanity and fridge freezer cause mrs HM feels deprived.

 

 

hoping for the sales in PMs to add to stash.

[bitbigt]

They are riding trying to hold down one big bull.

...on this point I fully agree, but...

 

And before cg can say it, yes they will fail

...are we sure about this?

 

The money required to manipulate the gold market is small compared to amount the PPT has at its disposal for such manipulations!

 

All they have to do is keep the price of gold under control until the worst of the recession is past. After that, certainly gold will over the years/decades maintain its value. But that might not imply a significantly higher price than todays price for many years to come - especially in Sterling which is very weak just now.

[romans holiday]

The money required to manipulate the gold market is small compared to amount the PPT has at its disposal for such manipulations!

 

All they have to do is keep the price of gold under control until the worst of the recession is past. After that, certainly gold will over the years/decades maintain its value. But that might not imply a significantly higher price than todays price for many years to come - especially in Sterling which is very weak just now.

They will be outflanked by a collapsing economy and a crashing stock market. Control? It is has got beyond that... think fingers/dams.

[bitbigt]

...All they have to do is keep the price of gold under control until the worst of the recession is past...

They will be outflanked by a collapsing economy and a crashing stock market. Control? It is has got beyond that... think fingers/dams.

If the economic world is coming to an end, then you're right.

 

But if we're all still alive, working, spending, saving, investing, eating, and posting on GEI in 5-10 years time, then perhaps they'll be quite able to suppress the gold price for as long as they need to

[Bosworth]

Why is everyone so convinced the POG is manipulated?

 

I understand the belief system that suggests this is happening, but is there any evidence, and are the sums of money actually available to make it happen?

[alexreeve]

Why is everyone so convinced the POG is manipulated?

 

I understand the belief system that suggests this is happening, but is there any evidence, and are the sums of money actually available to make it happen?

easy enough to read up on it:

www.gata.org

[Steve Netwriter]

Why is everyone so convinced the POG is manipulated?

 

I understand the belief system that suggests this is happening, but is there any evidence, and are the sums of money actually available to make it happen?

 

Manipulation in the Gold/Silver, Forex & Other Markets

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3214

 

[nicejim]

Why is everyone so convinced the POG is manipulated?

 

I understand the belief system that suggests this is happening, but is there any evidence, and are the sums of money actually available to make it happen?

 

Stuff like this happens too often, and too conveniently, to be a coincidence. Price goes down as soon as NYMEX opens, then the FED announces QE and the price explodes upwards. Either they want to kick people out of their positions (make them nervous, trigger stops etc) to make a quick buck on the news they know is coming, or they want to suppress the price because, left alone, gold will tell the world the truth.

 

 

 

 

[marmite]

Is anyone else starting to stock up on home electronics? I'm reluctant to buy more Gold at the moment, don't want my cash sitting in the bank so am tempted with a new hoover, widescreen tv, washing machine etc. Few things that we could do with, and are likely to have risen significantly in price by the end of Summer when the currency lag starts to kick in.

 

Doing the same here already, bought a new Pressure Washer, Bissel Carpet cleaner, getting a new Flymo at the weekend

 

[nicejim]

Doing the same here already, bought a new Pressure Washer, Bissel Carpet cleaner, getting a new Flymo at the weekend

What will this do to the velocity of money?

 

 

 

Destocking at firesale prices will intensify in the next few weeks but it is just the sea going out before the tsunami strikes. A great time to buy - stick it on the credit card!

 

Prediction on Economic Turning Point ahead - Going into deep Deflation and Asset Price Devaluation

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Re2fnIyIdQ0

 

[romans holiday]

If the economic world is coming to an end, then you're right.

 

But if we're all still alive, working, spending, saving, investing, eating, and posting on GEI in 5-10 years time, then perhaps they'll be quite able to suppress the gold price for as long as they need to

I think things are being blown out of proportion here. A depression is not Armageddon... it's just a....depression. We will survive and no doubt keep posting.

 

Talk of dams collapsing was just an expression of hyerbole.

[ologhai]

Doing the same here already, bought a new Pressure Washer, Bissel Carpet cleaner, getting a new Flymo at the weekend

 

Well, I suppose someone has to keep propping up the economy.

 

No me, though -- I'm not buying anything because I can't think of anything that I want

 

I think I need sending back to the people-factory for repair...

[alexreeve]

How long has the Telegraph had a whole section on Gold under personal finance?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...investing/gold/

[Pixel8r]

How long has the Telegraph had a whole section on Gold under personal finance?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...investing/gold/

With it's own RSS news feed as well

[wren]

I just emailed CoinInvestDirect asking when they will have 1-ounce gold Britannias in stock again. They expect a delivery in late April, but she said they do have 5 pieces in stock - now down to 4 pieces as I ordered one by email.

[Steve Netwriter]

How long has the Telegraph had a whole section on Gold under personal finance?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...investing/gold/

 

Ever since I mentioned it :P

 

 

Has anyone seen this ?

 

The NYSE-Liffe futures exchange has, it seems, run out of 1 kg bars of gold. Futures markets, like NYSE-Liffe and COMEX, try hard to maintain the fiction that they will deliver physical gold, in completion of executed contracts. Indeed, to prevent fraud, U.S. law requires clearing members to keep a stockpile, of one kind or another, consisting of a minimum of 90% of metal. Up until October, 2008, it didn’t matter. Only about 1% of long buyers of paper gold futures contracts typically took delivery. Now, the situation is very different. Demand has surged and, it appears, one major futures exchange, NYSE-Liffe, and by extension, the COMEX gold warehouses it shares with its larger cousin, are unable to meet the requirements of their contracts, visa vi, delivery of 1 kg. bars.

 

As of December 31, 2008, the NYSE-Liffe mini-gold (YG) contract specifications were changed to read, in pertinent part, as follows:

 

33.2 fine troy ounces (+10%), no Less than 995 fineness. Seller’s discretion delivery of one vault receipt representing one bar or one Warehouse Depository Receipt (WDR) representing either 1/3 interest in one full size gold NYSE Liffe vault receipt or full interest in a NYSE Liffe Mini Gold vault receipt. Delivered to exchange approved vaults by exchange approved carriers.

 

But, before that, on August 26, 2008, it read as follows:

 

33.2 troy ounces (±5%) of refined gold, assaying not less than .995 fineness, contained in no more than one bar.

 

NYSE Runs Out of Gold Bars: What Happens Next?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/128150-nys...at-happens-next

 

Checkout the comment by AA.

 

[Pixel8r]

NYSE Runs Out of Gold Bars: What Happens Next?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/128150-nys...at-happens-next

 

Checkout the comment by AA.

 

Makes you wonder if GLD actually has any gold or just IOUs.

[safebetter]

Back from a self-imposed posting/reading ban!!

 

An old broadcast of Philip Manduca from Jan 2009, but good to see him shooting down muppets on Bloomberg:

 

 

SafeBetter

[dopamine]

For me the current questions are as follows:

 

1. For how long will gold trade in this range $890-$950 that it seems to have settled quite comfortably into this month? Is this seasonal or a response to the current phase of the crisis?

2. Will the next move, short term, be up or down?

3. Are there any foreseeable events that will make it move convincingly above or below this range in the next few months?

 

I don't have a 'feeling in my bones' about gold at the moment, apart from thinking that it seems less like a speculative investment and more like a currency atm (which is good).

[romans holiday]

For me the current questions are as follows:

 

1. For how long will gold trade in this range $890-$950 that it seems to have settled quite comfortably into this month? Is this seasonal or a response to the current phase of the crisis?

imo, QE put a bit of a floor under pog for the time being. I think the old seasonal patterns have gone out the window and that we should see a new seasonal pattern unfold as investors go from inflationary expectations to deflationary ones and back again.

 

2. Will the next move, short term, be up or down?

I think short term we will see pog go down below 900 but perhaps not too far. This may coincide with a continued rally in stocks. Keep some powder dry.

 

3. Are there any foreseeable events that will make it move convincingly above or below this range in the next few months?

As a staunch deflationist, I think QE will have no effect. The only effect it is having now is the news has caused an inflationary scare. This move in the markets is motivated by ideology [investors simplistically equating inflated money supply with inflation proper] and nothing real. Notice that investors are not really that convinced about inflation [the big picture is still the credit crisis]... just a little nervous. When investors see QE having no effect they will go back to selling risk and buying safe havens.

 

I don't have a 'feeling in my bones' about gold at the moment, apart from thinking that it seems less like a speculative investment and more like a currency atm (which is good).

As a safe haven currency, gold will again pick up here and could even spike again. The big move in pog will probably come in a year or so when the dollar finally devalues. Until then expect continued strength in the US dollar and gold [as they compete for safe haven status] and massive volatility. I plan to buy and swap only currencies... buying weakness and selling strength. Base currency being gold of course.

[dopamine]

As a safe haven currency, gold will again pick up here and could even spike again. The big move in pog will probably come in a year or so when the dollar finally devalues. Until then expect continued strength in the US dollar. And massive volatility. I plan to buy and swap only currencies... buying weakness and selling strength

 

 

Agree with most of what you say RH. I am perceiving my own behaviour re: gold far more as 'currency trading' rather than 'investing' if that makes any sense. I don't know whether this is a reflection of 'maturity' in my views about the underlying asset or a reflection of gold's 'behaviour' in the late $800s - $900s (apart from the odd spike, of course).

 

I'm not sure whether I think we'll see any more 'black swans' like Lehmans etc, so probably more likely that the slow slog through this mess will drive things from now on (although obviously not anticipating a black swan is the precondition for one happening, so I'm talking nonsense there)

[romans holiday]

Agree with most of what you say RH. I am perceiving my own behaviour re: gold far more as 'currency trading' rather than 'investing' if that makes any sense. I don't know whether this is a reflection of 'maturity' in my views about the underlying asset or a reflection of gold's 'behaviour' in the late $800s - $900s (apart from the odd spike, of course).

 

I'm not sure whether I think we'll see any more 'black swans' like Lehmans etc, so probably more likely that the slow slog through this mess will drive things from now on (although obviously not anticipating a black swan is the precondition for one happening, so I'm talking nonsense there)

Yep, imo we are in a period of wealth destruction now. Wealth is doubly vanishing in asset deflation and the depreciation of currencies. How is that for nonsense!

Capital will flee from assets and currencies eventually going into the most powerful symbols of money, that of gold and silver in the "big squeeze".

 

Before that I expect massive volatility - while the dollar remains strong - which is perhaps a good reason to be in some other currencies as well as the metals for now. Diversity of currencies is also a good hedge given the fallibility of all opinions.