GOLD

[drbubb]

If the destruction of Fictious capital (in US dollar demoninated assets) continues at this pace,

it will eventually work prices down to levels where they are BELOW real value.

 

Is Bear Stearns cheap at $2 per share?

JP Morgan Chase must think so. Many assets will need to be written down, but there are some

sustainable valuations amid all the writedowns

 

Also, JPM knows that Engine of Capital Formation is now into reverse gear, and looking backwards,

the drivers do not see things very clearly. They can drive prices TOO LOW, and endanger JPM's own business.

So jumping in, to save the game, makes sense for them

[crudeFool]

Is Bear Stearns cheap at $2 per share?

 

I'd imagine it looks cheap to Bear Stearns poor shareholders They've gone from about $150 from a year ago to $2! Feck! You can almost smell the coming lawsuits in the US as they look for someone to blame...

 

Regards,

crude.

[azazel]

Hi DrBubb. Are you not worried about how bad things are going to get?

 

I see they are gearing up to print money with a crafty cover story

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7299941.stm

[drbubb]

But, DrBubb, isn't it rather disingenuous to compare a decadal chart with an hourly chart?

 

Is this the same as last time?

And if so, whereabouts on the chart in terms of year-to-year correspondence would you say we are?

 

And is there the possiblity that the timing, the magnitudes are different?

 

That's not what this is for.

 

I was just showing the context of these gains.

 

Jumps of $25 or $30, are large in reation to what we are used to seeing.

And that may be a sign that we are now headed into the parabolic phase

[drbubb]

I'd imagine it looks cheap to Bear Stearns poor shareholders They've gone from about $150 from a year ago to $2! Feck! You can almost smell the coming lawsuits in the US as they look for someone to blame...

 

Regards,

crude.

 

they should blame Bear for creating so much fictious capital (and themselves for believing the game was sustainable)

[drbubb]

Hi DrBubb. Are you not worried about how bad things are going to get?

 

I see they are gearing up to print money with a crafty cover story

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7299941.stm

 

 

What is "Bad" about prices moving back towards real, sustainable valuations.

This is "good" and it should have started months ago

[azazel]

What is "Bad" about prices moving back towards real, sustainable valuations.

This is "good" and it should have started months ago

 

I would think that there will be allot of negative aspects. Maybe riots and civil uprisings, suicides and poverty, mega wars? If these things do happen then there is not alot we can do about it. What do you think?

[Crash Position]

Hi all. I'm another ex-lurker from HPC. Thanks to all the posters on the original gold thread and this one, its a goldmine of information. I feel I've learned more about how the world works from that than 9 years working in financial services. I work for JPM. After a weekend away my jaw dropped when I logged on this morning and saw not only 1,030 gold but that we'd bought Bear Stears!

 

I know I'm preaching to the converted, but I agree its only just the beginning. Having seem the media's output once we got to $1,000, I'm sure there will be more to come. Nobody else I know is buying gold. Many have laughed in my face at the idea, including my ex boss. I loaded up later that day, that's a buy signal if ever there was one. I have done some web orders with the likes of Baird, order number 3## or 4##, which doesn't seem like many. Gold is really not mainstream yet, but it is definitely working its way into the public spotlight.

 

It was great to see a $30 rally this morning. Most of my friends think I've turned into a paranoid conspiracy nut and lost the plot, so in a way its to be vindicated. Obviously it would be better if we had a sensible system in the first place, and its a crippling shame that we're about to go through such a difficult period because of it.

 

Thankfully my missus is on board and we will keep accumulating. We've moved what savings we had into the physical shiny yellow stuff over the last few months. No debts, never owned property. I only wish I'd stumbled onto the site and the gold thread much earlier....

[drbubb]

I would think that there will be allot of negative aspects. Maybe riots and civil uprisings, suicides and poverty, mega wars? If these things do happen then there is not alot we can do about it. What do you think?

 

 

A party as they moved up, and a serious hangover, as they move down.

THAT is what we can expect.

 

The Fed, and the Bush administration seems to think we can party forever,

and all the low interest rate vodka and gin can be consumed without any future pain

 

IT AINT SO

[drbubb]

Hi all. I'm another ex-lurker from HPC. Thanks to all the posters on the original gold thread and this one, its a goldmine of information. I feel I've learned more about how the world works from that than 9 years working in financial services. I work for JPM. After a weekend away my jaw dropped when I logged on this morning and saw not only 1,030 gold but that we'd bought Bear Stears!

 

Welcome, CP.

I'm an ex- Chase London employee myself

 

In the my days, The Old-Chase used to be so accident prone. In a way, it is good to see them making

some acquisitions which may prove (entually) to be cheap and well-timed

[ologhai]

I find that I don't really know what to do...

 

I bought a little gold about a week and a half ago (the Friday before last), using only about 10% of the money I have 'put aside' for purchasing gold and silver.

 

I had imagined spending about 10% each on gold and on silver for about five weeks[1], and perhaps piling in (i.e. not waiting for the weeks to tick by) if a substantial correction took place before the five weeks was up.

 

Given that we crossed the psychological $1000/oz barrier for gold on Friday (if not Thursday), I decided to hold off on the 'weekly' purchase, thinking that there might've been more of a struggle around that price, and perhaps a sizeable fall again.

 

Are we still expecting some kind of correction (not only back below $1000, but maybe quite a bit lower -- sub-$950, say) in the shortish term, or do we think that it's time to jump aboard before the PM Express leaves the station heading for new and even more fantastical pastures?

 

[1] The silver is lagging because of waiting for my GoldMoney account to be set up -- I still haven't bought any.

[drbubb]

I find that I don't really know what to do...

 

I bought a little gold about a week and a half ago (the Friday before last), using only about 10% of the money I have 'put aside' for purchasing gold and silver.

 

For gold, you may need to wait for the post Spring (post March/April/May) pullback - into July/August?

 

For gold Juniors, NOW may be a great time to jump onboard.

No guarantee that you will make money, but at least there is a great RELATIVE VALUE argument here

[ConvertedGoldBug]

Hey, you guys, this isn't fair...

 

I left this page open before going to bed last night.... and now I've got about 5 pages to trawl through this early in the morning.... don't you ever sleep???

 

And now for my Goldfinger impression.... "Damn, it's going up too fast, haven't had a chance to buy any more physical yet!"

 

[G0ldfinger]

The Fed must be working on some other plan for the morning before the open. Gold is going up against all currencies - this is not just a dollar problem - it is a fiat money problem.

The only thing they will be able to come up with is dumping some more. Seems it is starting now. Someone seems to have dumped a little.

[G0ldfinger]

I would hate to be spread betting gold short right now. A 30 point move against you could end up costing you a lotta lolly.

Yeah. I wonder how profitable the Shorterz over at HPC have been recently.

[azazel]

Yeah. I wonder how profitable the Shorterz over at HPC have been recently.

 

Yer, I bet they feel safe with their paper money now. Still they could always buy back in and eat humble pie

[drbubb]

Yeah. I wonder how profitable the Shorterz™ over at HPC have been recently.

 

Are they the same folk that were clients of AssetZ?

 

Do you think they have any capital left?

[Steve Netwriter]

Hi all. I'm another ex-lurker from HPC. Thanks to all the posters on the original gold thread and this one, its a goldmine of information. I feel I've learned more about how the world works from that than 9 years working in financial services. I work for JPM. After a weekend away my jaw dropped when I logged on this morning and saw not only 1,030 gold but that we'd bought Bear Stears!

 

I know I'm preaching to the converted, but I agree its only just the beginning. Having seem the media's output once we got to $1,000, I'm sure there will be more to come. Nobody else I know is buying gold. Many have laughed in my face at the idea, including my ex boss. I loaded up later that day, that's a buy signal if ever there was one. I have done some web orders with the likes of Baird, order number 3## or 4##, which doesn't seem like many. Gold is really not mainstream yet, but it is definitely working its way into the public spotlight.

 

It was great to see a $30 rally this morning. Most of my friends think I've turned into a paranoid conspiracy nut and lost the plot, so in a way its to be vindicated. Obviously it would be better if we had a sensible system in the first place, and its a crippling shame that we're about to go through such a difficult period because of it.

 

Thankfully my missus is on board and we will keep accumulating. We've moved what savings we had into the physical shiny yellow stuff over the last few months. No debts, never owned property. I only wish I'd stumbled onto the site and the gold thread much earlier....

 

Welcome

It was great reading your post. I had been wondering what the reaction would be this morning in the UK.

My experiences are much like yours. Most people think I'm mad too. That pleases me greatly

[Steve Netwriter]

I find that I don't really know what to do...

 

I bought a little gold about a week and a half ago (the Friday before last), using only about 10% of the money I have 'put aside' for purchasing gold and silver.

 

I had imagined spending about 10% each on gold and on silver for about five weeks[1], and perhaps piling in (i.e. not waiting for the weeks to tick by) if a substantial correction took place before the five weeks was up.

 

Given that we crossed the psychological $1000/oz barrier for gold on Friday (if not Thursday), I decided to hold off on the 'weekly' purchase, thinking that there might've been more of a struggle around that price, and perhaps a sizeable fall again.

 

Are we still expecting some kind of correction (not only back below $1000, but maybe quite a bit lower -- sub-$950, say) in the shortish term, or do we think that it's time to jump aboard before the PM Express leaves the station heading for new and even more fantastical pastures?

 

[1] The silver is lagging because of waiting for my GoldMoney account to be set up -- I still haven't bought any.

 

I know how you feel. I expect there are many going through the same thing.

People have been predicting a correction for months. And they've been wrong all the way.

My view is that you should be going for a long-term investment. From my experience, you can spend a lot of time trying to pick a good time to buy, and a month later look back at the price you paid and wonder why you bothered so much. If it's long-term, what does it really matter whether you get the best price now?

Also I think you need to have a certain minimum amount as a safe haven.

So far it's been travelling quite nicely up a quite obvious channel, and I've been buying whenever it got near the bottom of the channel.

 

I would suggest going more on the buy now side of things than the wait and hope for a correction side of things.

 

If you think gold is going to $1650 sometime, it's not going to matter that much how well you time your purchases.

 

I think the most important thing is this. If you buy, know the price might correct, and set your mind beforehand that you will NOT sell.

Buy and hold.

 

Good luck.

Steve

[Crash Position]

Welcome

It was great reading your post. I had been wondering what the reaction would be this morning in the UK.

My experiences are much like yours. Most people think I'm mad too. That pleases me greatly

 

Hehe, me too. I just hope to plant a seed of interest in friends and family and get them to think about the current situation as a first step. You have to tread very carefully though, nobody likes being wrong, or even seen to be clueless. The average person doesn't want to know about peak oil or politics or anything above the level of The Sun's editorial. Its too shocking. Anyway back on topic, I have a friend who started investing heavily last year via an offshore fund platform. He's done very badly and now wants to know about gold. I think there will be many others in the same boat.

[ologhai]

I know how you feel. I expect there are many going through the same thing.

People have been predicting a correction for months. And they've been wrong all the way.

My view is that you should be going for a long-term investment. From my experience, you can spend a lot of time trying to pick a good time to buy, and a month later look back at the price you paid and wonder why you bothered so much. If it's long-term, what does it really matter whether you get the best price now?

Also I think you need to have a certain minimum amount as a safe haven.

So far it's been travelling quite nicely up a quite obvious channel, and I've been buying whenever it got near the bottom of the channel.

 

I would suggest going more on the buy now side of things than the wait and hope for a correction side of things.

 

If you think gold is going to $1650 sometime, it's not going to matter that much how well you time your purchases.

 

I think the most important thing is this. If you buy, know the price might correct, and set your mind beforehand that you will NOT sell.

Buy and hold.

 

Thanks for your level-headed advice, Steve.

 

As you can see from my post to HPC's Gold thread last Friday[1], when I'm not panicking, I feel the same way!

 

From my point of view, there are two main positions; one seems 'rational', the other less so, as follows:

 

1. Rationally, "the world is collapsing around our ears", and it seems as though there's a sense in which precious metals are deemed to be one of the few remaining oases. It seems as though this isn't likely to change in the short- or medium-term. So, as you say, it may be safe to assume that gold is heading for £1650/oz or more, therefore, just buy and hold.

 

2. More irrationally (maybe), I'm aware that I might be exhibiting somewhat herd-like tendencies. Lots of folks are (clearly) piling into gold, and -- whadya know? -- that's just what I'm in the process of doing (or dithering about). Uh-oh, alarm bells...

 

So, that's it -- it's a battle between doing what seems patently logical over the sense that, 'of course it's patently logical -- that's why the herd are heading that way!'

 

[1] I tried to link the post in question, but the URL that HPC generates doesn't seem to point to the correct one. Here's what I wrote (post #9338 of the Gold thread):

 

I probably know less than you do, but some commentators seem to think we're only part way through a substantial bull market in precious metals generally; one that has perhaps even several years yet to run.

 

If you're planning on buying and holding gold and/or silver for at least a year or two, then one could argue that a few dollars (or whatever currency) per ounce here or there now won't make all that much difference in the end.

 

Some have suggested that gold passing through a psychological barrier like $1000/ounce may cause a short-term correction much like I hear happened when oil first reached $100/barrel. Apparently, the PM market also cools somewhat during the summer months, so, what with one thing an another, it may actually be months before the price of gold continues to grow as strongly as it has over the last six months or so.

 

Or maybe not... and that's all assuming it grows much at all and we haven't already hit the top more or less!

[UNSHURE]

Hehe, me too. I just hope to plant a seed of interest in friends and family and get them to think about the current situation as a first step. You have to tread very carefully though, nobody likes being wrong, or even seen to be clueless. The average person doesn't want to know about peak oil or politics or anything above the level of The Sun's editorial. Its too shocking. Anyway back on topic, I have a friend who started investing heavily last year via an offshore fund platform. He's done very badly and now wants to know about gold. I think there will be many others in the same boat.

 

Yesterday, I had lunch with two people that I used to work with. They were both interested in Gold and had picked up on 'Gold raeching $1000'. They wouldn't have been interested at all a few months ago. One of them sounded like he would be 'dipping his toe into the water' in the near future. It looks like the general public are now begining to slowly pick up on the gold market.

[azazel]

I find that I don't really know what to do...

 

I bought a little gold about a week and a half ago (the Friday before last), using only about 10% of the money I have 'put aside' for purchasing gold and silver.

 

I had imagined spending about 10% each on gold and on silver for about five weeks[1], and perhaps piling in (i.e. not waiting for the weeks to tick by) if a substantial correction took place before the five weeks was up.

 

Given that we crossed the psychological $1000/oz barrier for gold on Friday (if not Thursday), I decided to hold off on the 'weekly' purchase, thinking that there might've been more of a struggle around that price, and perhaps a sizeable fall again.

 

Are we still expecting some kind of correction (not only back below $1000, but maybe quite a bit lower -- sub-$950, say) in the shortish term, or do we think that it's time to jump aboard before the PM Express leaves the station heading for new and even more fantastical pastures?

 

[1] The silver is lagging because of waiting for my GoldMoney account to be set up -- I still haven't bought any.

 

When I first took the plunge, the price dropped and I was down £3000 dooh. But it went up again and then I got some more and guess what, it went down again, dooh. Next time I waited for a dip, took a plunge and it went up. Unfortunately that was the smallest plunge. Now I'm not too worried but I should have bought on the dips.

[Jacko]

"Are we still expecting some kind of correction (not only back below $1000, but maybe quite a bit lower -- sub-$950, say) in the shortish term, or do we think that it's time to jump aboard before the PM Express leaves the station heading for new and even more fantastical pastures? unsure.gif"

 

I would say short term we could see a dip bellow $1000, however, we haven't had a sizable 'correction' yet in this bull market - even when the 'experts' have been calling one.

 

Long term we'll see 1050-1650, I don't own a huge amout of Gold and Silver but enough for me for TTB. I bought in at about $850, I'm aiming to double my money. I'll be buying more if we have a pull back but I'm not hoding my breath for one. I'm not making the mistake of trying to play the market- I've been slightly burnt once already.

 

Fundamentals are still strong for GOLD/SILVER.

[Steve Netwriter]

Thanks for your level-headed advice, Steve.

 

As you can see from my post to HPC's Gold thread last Friday[1], when I'm not panicking, I feel the same way!

 

From my point of view, there are two main positions; one seems 'rational', the other less so, as follows:

 

1. Rationally, "the world is collapsing around our ears", and it seems as though there's a sense in which precious metals are deemed to be one of the few remaining oases. It seems as though this isn't likely to change in the short- or medium-term. So, as you say, it may be safe to assume that gold is heading for £1650/oz or more, therefore, just buy and hold.

 

2. More irrationally (maybe), I'm aware that I might be exhibiting somewhat herd-like tendencies. Lots of folks are (clearly) piling into gold, and -- whadya know? -- that's just what I'm in the process of doing (or dithering about). Uh-oh, alarm bells...

 

So, that's it -- it's a battle between doing what seems patently logical over the sense that, 'of course it's patently logical -- that's why the herd are heading that way!'

 

[1] I tried to link the post in question, but the URL that HPC generates doesn't seem to point to the correct one. Here's what I wrote (post #9338 of the Gold thread):

 

OK, now I can see the way forward is clear. You need counselling !

 

Please go here: http://www.jsmineset.com/

 

And keep reading until you are cured.

 

Then come back here

 

 

Seriously, (I don't know whether you are a Jim fan), but I find reading Jim's posts very quickly cures me of (2) you listed.

 

Of course it's a worry that you are following the herd over the cliff. But I think if you step back a minute and think about this, you'll realise that only a few short months ago "house prices are going up" and "stocks are going up" were practically all we heard. How long ago is it that "all goldbugs are mad" ?

It's only in the past week that it's starting to seep out that maybe goldbugs aren't mad.

But how many people are buying ?

 

The idea that this is in any way over is simply absurd. It's only just just got started.

Instead of thinking in days/weeks/months, think years.

 

And if you trust Jim's experience since he was trading at 16 !!!!!, then you'll think he might have a reason for talking about 2011.

 

Maybe for what it's worth I should post my "buy now times". I've called it pretty well for the past few months.

If you have Yen, I can tell you without looking at the chart that now is a buy now time. I'm not sure whether the Yen will outperform gold for a while, but it's certainly not a bad time to buy gold with Yen. If I was low on gold and high on Yen, I'd certainly be buying more gold.

 

I'll stop waffling now