Concrete Jungle Posted December 28, 2008 Report Share Posted December 28, 2008 It's not exactly for that reason that I've posted my last time on there and signed up here yesterday, but it's shallow enough to suffice for now. Going on from Goldfinger's point; I emailed Fionaulla a few months ago and suggested that she either knew at the time that the prediction she gave previously was incorrect (using the simple straight ruler method of forecasting) and was therefore a knave OR she wasn't very good at her job. No reply of course, but I felt better for it nonetheless. First post. Treat me gently chaps. Is there an initiation ceremony I have to go through or what? I have a note from Mummy Paddles about allergies and a weak chest, if so... Another HPCer converts to the dark side. Good luck with the travelling and blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 28, 2008 Report Share Posted December 28, 2008 This doesn't sound good for house prices or commercial real estate prices, or much else in the UK ! One in 10 shops will stand empty 27 Dec 2008 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...tand-empty.html I think seeing all those empty shops will truly demoralise potential home buyers. Remember, it took years of overspending to create the UK's massive home bubble. (And years of all those absurd property porn shows working on people's psyches.) It will take years of rebuilding savings to repair those excesses. Mr. Brown will have a long, long time "in the wilderness" before he is forgiven his many financial sins. == == "First post. Treat me gently chaps. Is there an initiation ceremony I have to go through or what? I have a note from Mummy Paddles about allergies and a weak chest, if so..." LOL. I think you will find GEI to be a less frenetic and more gentlemanly place than some others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted December 28, 2008 Report Share Posted December 28, 2008 The predictions for the UK housing market are getting more realistic recently. The newspapers have become lagging indicators to what is actually going on. Also, where did these fools arrive at 46%? Another figure plucked out of their backsides. Pluto's trough now revised from 50% to 70%. http://www.independent.co.uk/money/mortgag...et-1213432.html But how low could prices sink? It is from the City that the best answer may come. "The median prediction among traders is that from peak to trough we will see house prices fall 46 per cent. The height was reached in the third quarter 2007 when average UK house prices were around the £200,000 mark by 2010/2011. This is predicted to be £109,000," said Peter Sceats, director of real estate derivative broker Tradition Property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted December 28, 2008 Report Share Posted December 28, 2008 sensible lending returning oh dear what are those recent BMV idiots going to do now http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/inv...icle5403182.ece Abbey also said landlords who want it to take account of buy-to-let income on residential-mortgage applications will have to prove rent covers 125% of repayments with the interest rate pegged at 7% — rather than the rate actually paid. Related Links * Our pick of this year’s financial turkeys * Is it time to get back into property? Melanie Bien, of Savills Private Finance, the broker, said: “Abbey is sending out a clear message that landlords are no longer welcome. By refusing to offer any new or remortgage buy-to-let deals, and implementing draconian rental covenants for those taking out a residential mortgage who have buy-to-lets in the background, it is making itself very unattractive to anyone with buy-to-let property.” HBOS-owned BM Solutions, the biggest buy-to-lender after Bradford & Bingley (B& retreated from the market before collapsing in October, demands a deposit of 40% on its best deals. In 2007, HBOS was offering deals to landlords with deposits of just 15% — while B&B-owned Mortgage Express was offering deals at 90% of the value of the property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 29, 2008 Report Share Posted December 29, 2008 But how low could prices sink? It is from the City that the best answer may come. "The median prediction among traders is that from peak to trough we will see house prices fall 46 per cent. The height was reached in the third quarter 2007 when average UK house prices were around the £200,000 mark by 2010/2011. This is predicted to be £109,000," said Peter Sceats, director of real estate derivative broker Tradition Property. That is supposed to be meaningful? What were they predicting 6 months ago? A year ago? My own forecast of 35-50% drop, with a low in 2010-13, I havent changed in 2-3 years. Even 4-5 years ago, I was talking about a 2008-2010 low. The press should be a bit more informative and talk about the track record and consistency of the forecasters. Forecasts from once-bullish clowns should be rubbished for the nonsense they are, as you have done! This was interesting: “Abbey is sending out a clear message that landlords are no longer welcome. By refusing to offer any new or remortgage buy-to-let deals, and implementing draconian rental covenants for those taking out a residential mortgage who have buy-to-lets in the background, it is making itself very unattractive to anyone with buy-to-let property.” BTL investment will be completely despised (and so will the queens of property porn) by the time we see the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harvipark Posted December 29, 2008 Report Share Posted December 29, 2008 Welcome Paddles First post. Treat me gently chaps. Is there an initiation ceremony I have to go through or what? Yes, you just need to send all the GEI members 10 Krugers each and you will be welcomed with open arms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted December 29, 2008 Report Share Posted December 29, 2008 Welcome from HPC. You have to learn the secret handshake and you must obey a member number who is more senior than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harvipark Posted December 29, 2008 Report Share Posted December 29, 2008 Welcome from HPC. You have to learn the secret handshake and you must obey a member number who is more senior than you. Sod the handshake, I am more interested in the free Krugers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted December 29, 2008 Report Share Posted December 29, 2008 HEW figures were released today. Another £5.7bn removed from the economy http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7802819.stm "Not so long ago, an Englishman's house wasn't just his castle, it was his cash machine, too. This, very clearly, is no longer the case," said Andrew Montlake, partner at independent mortgage broker Cobalt Capital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted December 29, 2008 Report Share Posted December 29, 2008 HPC have changed their layout. It looks like total sh1te now. I have just re-joined as grumpy-old-man-returns to spread my joyous words of optimism & hope, ala 1930's &/or 1873 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 30, 2008 Report Share Posted December 30, 2008 HEW figures were released today. Another £5.7bn removed from the economy http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7802819.stm "Not so long ago, an Englishman's house wasn't just his castle, it was his cash machine, too. This, very clearly, is no longer the case," said Andrew Montlake, partner at independent mortgage broker Cobalt Capital. I will copy this to the Retail thread. Explains alot! GOM, fight the battle, but dont abandon us, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted December 30, 2008 Report Share Posted December 30, 2008 The predictions for the UK housing market are getting more realistic recently. The newspapers have become lagging indicators to what is actually going on. Also, where did these fools arrive at 46%? Another figure plucked out of their backsides. Pluto's trough now revised from 50% to 70%. http://www.independent.co.uk/money/mortgag...et-1213432.html But how low could prices sink? It is from the City that the best answer may come. "The median prediction among traders is that from peak to trough we will see house prices fall 46 per cent. The height was reached in the third quarter 2007 when average UK house prices were around the £200,000 mark by 2010/2011. This is predicted to be £109,000," said Peter Sceats, director of real estate derivative broker Tradition Property. when I said that the worst drops in the UK would be 90% I was laughed at. This would be new builds in the sh1tiest areas obviously. My minimum drops have always been 50%. Inflation adjusted will be difficult though won't it, without wage inflation & then with the old hyper doofer for basic living costs. Houses could drop more than 100% in real terms. Surely though, IR's have to go up in the medium term ?? ps - like the new avatar. You can tell a lot by a choice of a posters avatar imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peach Posted December 30, 2008 Report Share Posted December 30, 2008 Yes, without over 50% drop, unlikely to call a bottom - unless high or hyper-inflation, then the % must be inflation adjusted. Personally, am looking at c. 70% drop in 2012-2014. Know for a fact of a small local area in Manchester, 3 miles from city centre - properties there went from the 10K range to the 100K range within 5-7 years, its unbelievable return. When I first visted in 2002, I could not believe there was a proper 2 bed terraced house in UK worth under 15K, let alone in Manchester, while my friend was thinking of buying a similar house in London for 150K. These type of properties then increased to over 90K in the peak of 2007. The % return is unbelievable and far more than the average house price. The bubble is just way too big and it will collapse big time. I know there are BTL investors, one owns 60 of those in just that area and another 30. The one who owns 30 properties only started in 04/05. The area is one of the poorest in the country and surely demand was artificially generated given the number of properties these investors hold. I think this area will fall back to near the 15K range and might never rise to the levels seen in this cycle again until the memory is erased with generations passed - comparison to Kingswood Villas in Tin Shui Wai, Hong Kong - for those who know about Hong Kong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted December 30, 2008 Report Share Posted December 30, 2008 HEW figures were released today. Another £5.7bn removed from the economy http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7802819.stm "Not so long ago, an Englishman's house wasn't just his castle, it was his cash machine, too. This, very clearly, is no longer the case," said Andrew Montlake, partner at independent mortgage broker Cobalt Capital. oh dear the illusion of wealth brought about by the increase in debt is really being shattered what you gonna do now Gordon - to keep people spending money they havent got - oh i know you can get the government to spend future tax payers money all those malinvestments (factories, car dealerships, bathroom and kitchen accessory showrooms, mortgage brokers etc.) now need to be written off - the demand was there only because of the easy access to credit - the demand wasnt real. Savings need to be built up and balance sheets repaired (Governments, Individuals and Companies). Unfortunately, this is a painful process and our leaders have chosen the path of less pain now (inflation and more debt) - more pain later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paddles Posted December 30, 2008 Report Share Posted December 30, 2008 http://www.landreg.gov.uk/assets/library/d...ents/221282.pdf Land Registry speeding up nicely and they don't count reposessions or any sale that looks a bit cheap*. * made that last bit up, but the list of exclusions is longer than Anatole Kaletsky's reasons why no-one could see this coming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted December 30, 2008 Report Share Posted December 30, 2008 http://www.landreg.gov.uk/assets/library/d...ents/221282.pdf Land Registry speeding up nicely and they don't count reposessions or any sale that looks a bit cheap*. * made that last bit up, but the list of exclusions is longer than Anatole Kaletsky's reasons why no-one could see this coming.... actually Paddles, I thought that the LR had admitted that they didn't include repo's or auction property in their data, iirc ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paddles Posted December 30, 2008 Report Share Posted December 30, 2008 actually Paddles, I thought that the LR had admitted that they didn't include repo's or auction property in their data, iirc ?? Correct. There was a bit of a kerfuffle in the press about it last month, but it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone as the exclusions are stated on the website. I hesitated and nearly wrote "clearly stated" but that would have been inaccurate; the language used is obtuse to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted December 30, 2008 Report Share Posted December 30, 2008 Looking back over at HPC for the LR predictions thread: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=63430 we had: +20.0 Havoc +10.0 Bart of Darkness + 5.5 damianlsmith + 5.4 Jackalope + 5.0 hedgefunded + 3.0 moosetea + 1.5 Baz63 + 1.3 stig of the dump 0.0 Orbital - 2.5 bluemeanie - 3.0 Buccaneer - 3.7 Little professor - 3.8 Benedict - 4.3 Dopamine - 4.8 subsidiser - 5.0 devslim - 5.1 JohnG - 5.3 Alice Cook - 5.4 ih1 - 5.8 teddyboy - 6.5 hotairmail - 6.8 Kurt Barlow - 6.9 winkie - 7.6 europbaron - 7.7 Crashman Begins - 7.8 lately lately - 7.9 Paddles - 8.2 Backseat Economist - 8.5 buytoilet - 8.6 Financial Planner - 8.7 bugged bunny - 8.8 Buffer Bear - 8.9 annylou - 9.0 404 - 9.2 tigsrenting - 9.4 WantHousewithLand - 9.8 Timm - 9.9 cupidstunt -10.0 peepers -10.2 Minesapint -10.3 Bearbullfence -11.1 Lord Lister -11.2 mitchbux -12.0 Bearback -12.2 Belfast Boy -12.3 the reaper -12.4 Bomberbrown -12.7 BTB -13.2 Killerbee -13.4 WiseBear -13.5 Umaguma -13.8 SaintJay -14.2 chris c-t <<<<<<<<<< Looking good if it's for the whole of 2008, (hehehe) !!!! -14.7 buckers -15.0 Young Goat -18.6 57percent -21.9 Russell F -25.0 Beefheart -26.0 Saberu -26.9 ETOPS773 -28.7 Methinkshe -36.4 mSparks -40.0 T Bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted December 31, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2008 Crummy old UK houses are on sale to those abroad. The other side of this coin is the foreigners who bought into the UK ponzi housing are 50% down. ... I like this point of view. It's all Madoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted December 31, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2008 ... BTL investment will be completely despised (and so will the queens of property porn) by the time we see the low. Good point. My taxi driver anecdotes from to day show that we're still far from this point (the trough). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted December 31, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2008 http://www.landreg.gov.uk/assets/library/d...ents/221282.pdf Land Registry speeding up nicely and they don't count reposessions or any sale that looks a bit cheap*. * made that last bit up, but the list of exclusions is longer than Anatole Kaletsky's reasons why no-one could see this coming.... Keep it coming, and: welcome to GEI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted January 5, 2009 Report Share Posted January 5, 2009 Mortagage Approvals Forward indicator suggests UK house prices to be nearly -30% year on year didn't spline used to do this analysis before he got fed up with the mods at hpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 5, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2009 Mortagage Approvals Forward indicator suggests UK house prices to be nearly -30% year on year Brilliant chart, thanks. didn't spline used to do this analysis before he got fed up with the mods at hpc How surprising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted January 5, 2009 Report Share Posted January 5, 2009 shocking news cars lose money more bailouts needed this debt/consumption based economy is just great Negative Equity for car owners Edmund King, president of the AA motoring group, said: 'This is shocking news. Many people will suffer.' He said negative equity on car finance deals would have a knock-on effect for new buyers. Mr King said: 'Those who have had their fingers burned will not have any incentive to buy another new car under this type of deal.' An Auto Express spokesman said:'The slump in values means drivers who bought their cars on PCP are left with a final payment that's more than the vehicle is worth. It leaves drivers out of pocket.' Motorists generally are caught in a vicious spiral. The credit crunch and recession has led to a slump in car sales. This in turn has hit the resale values of cars when drivers come to resell or trade in. So while it means price-bargains for buyers, those trying to sell or trade in their cars find their vehicles worth thousands of pounds less than they had hoped. Sales of new cars slumped by a massive 37 per cent in November - the worst fall for more than 28 years - as cash-strapped customers shun showrooms amid the financial meltdown. And December's figures are set to add to the gloom as the car industry goes into meltdown. Amid the carnage, makers of luxury and sports cars, large 4X4s and 'gas-guzzlers' are bearing the brunt of the crash, with sales drops far in excess of that average. Private buyers in particular have deserted the market, with sales to individual consumers down by nearly half (45.1per cent). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dst Posted January 5, 2009 Report Share Posted January 5, 2009 Mortagage Approvals Forward indicator suggests UK house prices to be nearly -30% year on year didn't spline used to do this analysis before he got fed up with the mods at hpc I believe spline is behind this website: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/ Prediction stuff here (check out figure 3!): http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/hou...rice_predictor/ Website also provides the graph on ghpc -> http://www.globalhousepricecrash.com/ghpc_site/graphs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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