britannia Posted January 5, 2009 Report Share Posted January 5, 2009 Mortagage Approvals Forward indicator suggests UK house prices to be nearly -30% year on year didn't spline used to do this analysis before he got fed up with the mods at hpc When you consider how many more people live in this country than in the early 90s and that more of them are of an age that they will consider buying a house, that graph is truly horrific. This crash is going to be cataclysmic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted January 5, 2009 Report Share Posted January 5, 2009 I believe spline is behind this website: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/ This is a really top website, respect to the author! I tried to do some analysis like this a while ago, but could not process data as well as this - there are some great correlations and future projections on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted January 5, 2009 Report Share Posted January 5, 2009 Yes. What a story that chart tells. A very close friend has had her place on the market since July. It is a lovely semi in Earlsfield very nice done up with a garden. Good small family home. At the peak houses in her street fetched £600k. She went at £550 had an offer accepted and the deal fell through for some reason. It was taken off the market. In the summer it went back on at £500k. Then £475. Then £450. Then £430. Now £400. Loads of repeat viewings. Loads of interest. People fall in love with the house (it's lovely). IMO Unless she puts it on at £350 it will not sell now. She bought it in 2003 for £270 and spent a lot doing it up. She is anticipating the market, but the market is overtaking her down and she can't keep up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 5, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2009 ... Prediction stuff here (check out figure 3!): http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/hou...rice_predictor/ ... He's using a friggin Kalman-filter! Bless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Concrete Jungle Posted January 5, 2009 Report Share Posted January 5, 2009 I think the latest Nationwide figures are released tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jinbal Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 nationwide: -2.5% MoM -15.9 YoY Nationwide report Really moving now - I was telling friends and family 6-9 months ago that the fall would be breathtaking due to the utter destruction of mortgage volumes THEN. Now - Mortgage volumes are still making new lows - can the downside get any worse? edit: -3.4% Non seasonally adjusted from HPC - they're useful for something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 I believe spline is behind this website: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/ It's great to see he is keeping the "Builder Bellwether index" (invented by "yours truly") up to date "House price indices usually suffer from an inherent time lag, so why not look for a real-time indicator of UK house prices? This house builders index is based on the their quoted share price looks quite promising. It picked up on the mini-downturn in late-2004 and subsequent recovery in 2005, and has clearly signalled recent collapse that started in late-2007." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 6, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 ... Far too optimistic, Steve. See my signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Concrete Jungle Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 You can forget UK houseprices in ounces of gold. I am beginning to think about UK houseprices in ounces of silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 He's using a friggin Kalman-filter! Bless. What, praytell, is a "Kalman filter"? (As far as I know, even Kalmans are allowed on our website) haha This forecast makes some sense IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 6, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 What, praytell, is a "Kalman filter"? (As far as I know, even Kalmans are allowed on our website) haha ... Let's put it like this: the guy has possibly some proper knowledge of statistics. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalman_filter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 6, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 The face of the property precipice (no 'ladder' in sight anywhere...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 Check out this post on GHPC http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...st&p=451115 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Concrete Jungle Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 Check out this post on GHPC http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...st&p=451115 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 The face of the property precipice (no 'ladder' in sight anywhere...). RIGHT. We have now seen many months of "Crash Cruise speed"- remember that, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seekingclarity Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 RIGHT. We have now seen many months of "Crash Cruise speed"- remember that, anyone? Sure do DrBubb - HPC & the Piggies. 1% plus per month. How they were baited and how you helped to educate the masses. You must be keeping an eye on the London market as well...at 50% off soon it has to be a buy and even cheaper with FX wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 Sure do DrBubb - HPC & the Piggies. 1% plus per month. How they were baited and how you helped to educate the masses. You must be keeping an eye on the London market as well...at 50% off soon it has to be a buy and even cheaper with FX wins. Good point on the FX. Weakness there helps reduce the size of the needed fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 6, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 Good one! :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ritter Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 I think Ms Earley is on facebook..........shes got alot of time on her hands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 6, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 Good point on the FX. Weakness there helps reduce the size of the needed fall My favourite double-whammy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 Far too optimistic, Steve. See my signature. :D Yes, but they've devalued the pound Actually, I meant to put "this is the most optimistic possibility" :lol: For a REALLY good read on UK house prices, read this UK Housing Market Crash and Depression Forecast 2007 to 2012 Jan 05, 2009 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8080.html Loads of great charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 Enclosed is a great article about sportstars malinvesting in UK property and Icelandic banks. How long till the crowds chant "We all live in Robbie Fowler's repossessed house" ? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/articl...rty-market.html Talking of his financial adviser, a certain Mr J. Power, former world super-middleweight boxing champion Glenn Catley says 'I'd like to rip Power's head off and spit in the hole,' having paid £370,000 for a one-bedroom flat () at London's Grosvenor Waterside, Victoria, in 2005. That's one man I wouldn't get angry, Mr Power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 6, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 Enclosed is a great article about sportstars malinvesting in UK property and Icelandic banks. How long till the crowds chant "We all live in Robbie Fowler's repossessed house" ? ... Just click on the Mark Owen-buys-Dubai ad here on GEI. I cracked up when I saw it. This guy is financially doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieSays Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 Not sure if this link/article has been posted, but its a good essay IMHO. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8080.html "Recent house price data as released by the Halifax showed that UK house prices have plunged by more than 20% from the peak of August 2007, which has fulfilled much of the original forecast made in August 2007 for a minimum fall of 15% for the UK housing market and 25% for London, therefore this analysis seeks to project the forecast trend for UK house prices for the next 3 years into 2012." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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