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Silver has dropped to £6.89/oz. Has been up around £7.40 (about 7.4% down)

 

So, how much further is it going to fall ?

 

silver_071120.png

 

Please tell me precisely when to buy :D

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Hochschild Mining(HOC)

 

Some of the Directors have been selling. Don't like to see that. I think it is due a rest, been overbought for a while.

 

13-Nov-07 Sell Roberto Dañino 440.00p 1,725,000 £7,590,000.16

13-Nov-07 Sell Alberto Beeck 440.00p 8,500,000 £37,400,000.81

 

They sold too cheap! 497p now. I think this stock can smell a silver break out in the offing.

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I have. I've also used:

 

COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT SUMMARY - SILVER

http://www.technicalindicators.com/silvcotreport.htm

and

http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/SI.png

 

I tend to look more long term, and what I've read suggest to me that silver will follow gold up.

I think this is my favourite article on Silver:

 

Why Silver Is Lagging the Gold Bull Market

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2577.html

 

Steve

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I'm long Silver. Mid-to-long term trade. Willing it to go down so I can load up more at lower risk (which means it probably won't). I actually got in when it last plunged down to $11, but lost my nerve too early and took profits at $13-$14. Now back in from $14.50, and looking to try more of a "hold and accumulate on dips" approach, at least until we get the next major leg up to $20.

 

What are everyones' thoughts on the worst-case downside? It sprang back so powerfully off $11 last time, and gold has come so much further since, that I'm thinking $12ish, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

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Hochschild Mining(HOC)

 

Some of the Directors have been selling. Don't like to see that. I think it is due a rest, been overbought for a while.

 

13-Nov-07 Sell Roberto Dañino 440.00p 1,725,000 £7,590,000.16

13-Nov-07 Sell Alberto Beeck 440.00p 8,500,000 £37,400,000.81

 

So, this took a dive a couple of days ago. I'm looking at getting into some mining stocks (I'm already in silver with PHAG ETF). Is this now cheap, or dodgy?

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So, this took a dive a couple of days ago. I'm looking at getting into some mining stocks (I'm already in silver with PHAG ETF). Is this now cheap, or dodgy?

 

After reading up on the reasons behind the slump, I judged it cheap (Concerns that they have no contracts and are only going to get market price for metals... in an apparent bull market? Hardly reason to wipe a quarter of the value of the company) and bought in as soon as I could this morning. So far, the market seems to agree with me, as it's up nearly 14% today.

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I am just not on board with silver (or gold for that matter). Silver has an actual use, unlike gold; but, real useful demand just isn't growing much. Industrial use is growing, but nothing like one would expect with ChIndia and others coming on line. The photographic demand is on it's way to zero. I just don't know. The real demand is being driven by the ETFs. Is that "real" demand? I guess that depends on the way you look at it. If the world decides (or is convinced) that silver is in short supply and that global demand is "far outstripping supply" (keep hearing that but can't find the fundies to support the statement) I guess it will be a self fulfilling prophecy. This seems to be the case so far, at least the run from $12-$15. In that case, maybe traders can whip silver into a lather up to $_____? Don't get me wrong, I'll jump on that bandwagon for profit.

 

Can anyone provide a clear picture of silver demand vs. production, excluding net implied investment?? Again, I just don't see it. The same goes for gold really. If the population of India ever realizes that gold jewelry is....uh, shall we say very 1980..... and also not the ideal method of storing one's wealth.....then what is the demand, and thus value of/for gold?? I'm thinking $500 maximum, but that's just where I am at the moment. Maybe I can be educated further on the subject.

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IMO you're thinking about this all wrong.

 

Gold & silver are not commodities. They are not copper or iron ore or wheat.

It's not about supply and consumption.

It's about scarcity and characteristics.

 

It's not about what uses they have. It's all about this:

 

 

GoldIsMoney.jpg

 

 

I'll spare you the 'goldbugs' bit about which is the oldest currency, currencies don't last, and all that.

All you really need to know is that gold (and silver) have and are used as currencies.

 

Then all you need to do is ponder which currencies will do best from now.

 

I'll give you a choice: US$, Euro, GBP, JPY, Aus$, NZ$, Gold, Silver.

 

If you know what the M3 growth is for the top 20 economies, and compare it with the growth in quantity of gold and silver, I think you'll get the right answer B)

 

Try these. I think the arguments for silver are similar to those for gold.

 

FUNDAMENTAL REASONS TO OWN GOLD

BY: JOHN EMBRY, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST OF SPROTT ASSET MANAGEMENT INC. &

SPROTT GOLD AND PRECIOUS MINERALS FUND.

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/reasons_to_own_gold.pdf

 

This is a very long but very informative read about gold.

http://www.gata.org/files/RedburnPartnersG..._11-12-2007.pdf

 

Steve

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Anyone think we're in for some sort of horrible correction today/this week?

 

Akk! - don't say that! After building a nice position in gold and gold shares over the last couple of years I started on my silver 'collection' last week thanks to a bit of a windfall from work.

 

If you read the chart thread in the main forum you'll see we may well be on the precipice of large moves in commodities. Let's hope this is the start of a considerable leg-up in silver. Something in the order of magnitude I've seen since starting to buy gold in Nov 05 would be very welcome indeed!

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Anyone think we're in for some sort of horrible correction today/this week?

 

I think we might be in for exactly the opposite.

If the demand overwhelms the shorts, it could go ballistic.

 

A correction would be good though.

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Yeah, just looking at the shape of the april 06 up spike compared to the last week (The last 18 hours have been quite something). :blink: I appreciate today is obviously a whole different scenario though. I think the fall between May 06 and Jun 06 had something to do with unsustainable prices caused by the Silver ETF buying in Apr 06.

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IMO you're thinking about this all wrong.

 

Gold & silver are not commodities. They are not copper or iron ore or wheat.

It's not about supply and consumption.

It's about scarcity and characteristics.

 

It's not about what uses they have. It's all about this:

 

 

GoldIsMoney.jpg

 

 

I'll spare you the 'goldbugs' bit about which is the oldest currency, currencies don't last, and all that.

All you really need to know is that gold (and silver) have and are used as currencies.

 

Then all you need to do is ponder which currencies will do best from now.

 

I'll give you a choice: US$, Euro, GBP, JPY, Aus$, NZ$, Gold, Silver.

 

If you know what the M3 growth is for the top 20 economies, and compare it with the growth in quantity of gold and silver, I think you'll get the right answer :D

 

Try these. I think the arguments for silver are similar to those for gold.

 

FUNDAMENTAL REASONS TO OWN GOLD

BY: JOHN EMBRY, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST OF SPROTT ASSET MANAGEMENT INC. &

SPROTT GOLD AND PRECIOUS MINERALS FUND.

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/reasons_to_own_gold.pdf

 

This is a very long but very informative read about gold.

http://www.gata.org/files/RedburnPartnersG..._11-12-2007.pdf

 

Steve

 

 

Thanks. Good perspective. It's true that I usually attempt to utilitize things, even pm. My problem is, at the end of the day, I look for utility. Scarcity and durability does little for ME, without UTILITY. I'm trying to come up with another item that is both scarce and durable....but not considered valuable by society. If I lose my job, can I eat pm? Can I run my car on pm? Can I cure an illness with pm? Of course, fiat can only do these things because they are generally accepted as repayment of debt. PM is not.

 

Okay, having said all that, reality is what it is. The world tends to value pms, that's the bottom line. I understand your argument, for sure. I do agree. PM can't be expanded/inflated like currencies can; and so, at the end of the day, I'd rather have it than fiat.

 

By the way, I'm long of silver and enjoying the movements yesterday and today. Let's see what Ben is saying....

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I'm not sure if it has been mentioned yet... If not,

 

Take a look at PAAS (US nasdaq)

 

From my analysis (Fibo with longer term ABC structure), 102030, MACD, DMA), it looks as if there is still steam left in this stock. To brag a little, I got in this a while ago at 34, so I have my stops set in case retracement is huge, but im still bullish, especially due to the facts that 1) dollar is losing momentum 2) precious metals are an inflation hedge

 

sorry to diverge from the thread title, however, gold stock UXG is set to make a move.

in fact im so confident in uxg, that i have made it my largest position. even tom o'brien agrees

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