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PRECIOUS Decade: Metals, Stocks & the Long View

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BOUNCEBACK for GOLD? : Comment after $100+ drop in GOLD this week to under $1800

David Hunter@DaveHcontrarian
18h
For those of you who missed my many comments on PMs yesterday because they only look at my original tweets,not replies, I remain very bullish gold & silver & the miners.I expect a strong summer into fall.Targets remain gold $2500,silver $45-$50,GDX $60,GDXJ $100,SIL $75 & SILJ $35

Update:  July 14th - Go for Gold shares!

David Hunter@DaveHcontrarian: 15hrs ago (july 14th, 2021)
"The melt-up is underway. Gold & silver poised for some catch-up.

My 2021 targets are gold $2500, silver $45-$50, GDX $60, GDXJ $100, SIL $75 & SILJ $35. Big upside ahead."

> https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian : DanPopescu :

GDX ... update (w/500d ma😞 Last: $34.74, +72.7% upside?  / GDXJ: $46.72, +114% upside

f5UdAs0.gif

As I hinted at last week,I have raised my equity targets. My new targets are S&P 5000, DJIA 40,000 & Nasdaq 18,000. My target for RUT remains unchanged at 2900. The final melt-up run into the secular top is underway & should steepen in the weeks ahead. This bull is not done yet.

SPX ... update (w/500d ma) : Last: $4,374, +14.3% upside?  / Nasdaq: $14,645, +22.9% upside

JB4wTLV.gif

==

Coming: A DECADE of Rising Commodities, and weak Stocks?

=== Pre-NY Opening indicators for Gold, Silver & Gold shares

FRES.L, TLT, & GBS/Gold Bullion Securities (UK version of GLD) ... 10d / Kitco: AU: AG: mine news: StkW:

POMSvgO.gif

Update:  "The Precious Decade" chart

> HUNTER's Twitter > https://twitter.com/davehcontrarian?lang=en

( Joined October 2013. 33 Following, 85.5K Followers )

> Jonathan Ravelas, EWaves > https://twitter.com/ravelasj

Financial Literacy Advocate, Financial Market observer. Opinions expressed are my own & do not reflect my employer's view.
( Philippines, Joined May 2011. 913 Following, 8,294 Followers )

UDN vs-SLV, GLD, SPY : w/XLE... from 11/2019: YTD: 10d / SLV: $23.32 , GLD:157.49, SPY:381.72, XLE:53.09 @3.8.2021

2020" From the March Low, to the 2020's High. Silver was >3X Gold’s rise ! /GLD: SLV: +etc: 10d: UK 5d: AGQe:
SLV Mar.L: $10.86> Aug.H: $27.39: Silver= +152%  / Target: Slv: $30,00, silver: $35-40
GLD L: 136.12, $1,451 > H: 194.45, 2,089 =  +44.0% / Target: $240?, $2,500?
SPY L: 216.42, $2,192 > H: 394.17, 3,950 =  +80.2% / Target; 4,600
XLE Mar.Low: $ 22.88 > H: $53.75, 3.9.21= +135% > Yr.H: Mar.9th, Target: $55

SLV, GLD, SPY : w/XLE... from 11/2019: shs: YTD: 10d/ SLV: $24.33 , GLD:171.04, SPY:436.24, XLE:50.81 @7.14.2021

previoua SLV: $25.53 , GLD:176.04, SPY:414.94, XLE:52.16 @5.21.2021

q4ZXY9O.gif

===

Mining stock Podcast:  Podcast List

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Melt-up, dann Kollaps (David Hunter)

Interview with David Hunter  “The stock market will correct 70-80%”

46,203 views. Jun 18, 2021

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Is Gold's one year slide Ending soon?

GBS/ Gold Bullion (like GLD) ... All : Last: 165.90 x 10.00 = $1,780

s9gjNrx.gif

GBS vs GLD, GDXJ ... update: GDXJ ($47.43) / GLD ($165.90) = 28.6%

gT8Mjtc.gif

Ratio; xx

Charles Neener's Gold cycle is bottoming at mid-year

5bRnFcm.png

Interview

Stock Market Cut in Half Soon – Charles Nenner

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner made a huge call at the end of January 2020.  Nenner said, “I am more worried about the market going down 40% than making 5% more on the upside.”  The market topped a few weeks later (2% higher) and then plunged 38% for the next several weeks.  Spot on call.  Nenner also said he was “more worried about domestic civil unrest than war in a foreign land.”  We had Antifa and BLM rioting, looting and burning in Portland, Minneapolis, Chicago, New York and many other cities for most of 2020.  This was, yet, another spot on call.  What’s Nenner seeing now?  Nenner says, “ I have a chart going back to the 1900’s, and if you connect all the tops, the tops of 1929, top in the 1960’s, 1987, . . . we are up to the trend line again.  It seems very, very unusual to break a trend line that dates back for 100 years.  So, risk is very high. . . .We are totally out of the market. . . .We have been out for three or four weeks. . . .We have the same thing as before.  People are more afraid to miss 4% on the upside than 50% on the downside.  That’s human nature.”

How low can the market go from here?  Nenner says, “20,000 or lower is my call.”  I asked Nenner, “You think the market could get cut in half?”  Nenner replied, “Yes.”

The next big call is on inflation.  The Federal Reserve keeps telling the markets that inflation is “transitory.”  Nenner contends inflation is here and will get much worse.  Nenner explains, “If the Fed keeps the policy unchanged, the market is not going to like it because they think the Fed is not paying enough attention.  For the moment, I agree with the Fed that the inflation fear is overdone.  But based on my cycles, we are going to soon start a whole new cycle of inflation. . . . There is a long term cycle on inflation. . . .In a year or so, we are going to have a lot of inflation.”

Nenner says Bitcoin, at least for now, looks to be topped out.  Nenner says, “I have no higher price target.  We might have a new up cycle, but I don’t think the top ($64,000) is going to be taken out for a long time.”

On oil and natural gas, Nenner says, “We are out of oil right now, but I don’t think the bull market in oil is over yet.  I think natural gas will start a long term up move soon.”

On gold and silver, Nenner says, “There is no bottom fishing in silver or gold.  The bottom is weeks away. We might touch the bottom on gold at $1,670.”

Longer term, Nenner still thinks gold will go past $2,500 an ounce, and silver will go up with it.

LINK > https://usawatchdog.com/stock-market-cut-in-half-soon-charles-nenner-6-19-21/

After the Interview: 

Nenner added a warning about “fake news” issued by Wall Street.  Nenner says, “Wall Street wants small investors on the wrong side of the market.  They accomplish this by giving out fake news.  They have to sell to somebody.  Don’t fall for it.

There is free information and analysis on CharlesNenner.com. 

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Tweeted by Interviewer

Tech stocks are leading and helping S&P and Nasdaq hit new record highs. Is this the melt up Forecasted? Don't miss my interview with macro strategist David about his analysis of the economy and the historic crash he expects, check it out:

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David Hunter@DaveHcontrarian
7h
There's a narrative out there suggesting that 10yr yield falling to 1.25% today is a sign the economy & inflation have peaked & are rolling over & that would send the stock market sharply lower.Couldn't disagree more.I expect reacceleration in economy,inflation & mkt in 2nd half.
==

Lyn Alden on ‘the ‘unthinkable’: What happens if the U.S. defaults on debt? (Pt. 1/2)

==

 

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David Hunter@DaveHcontrarian: 15hrs ago
"The melt-up is underway. Gold & silver poised for some catch-up.

My 2021 targets are gold $2500, silver $45-$50, GDX $60, GDXJ $100, SIL $75 & SILJ $35. Big upside ahead."

> https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian

GDX ... update (w/500d ma) : Last: $34.74, +72.7% upside?  / GDXJ: $46.72, +114% upside

f5UdAs0.gif

As I hinted at last week,I have raised my equity targets. My new targets are S&P 5000, DJIA 40,000 & Nasdaq 18,000.
My target for RUT remains unchanged at 2900. The final melt-up run into the secular top is underway & should steepen in the weeks ahead.
This bull is not done yet.

SPX ... update (w/500d ma) : Last: $4,374, +14.3% upside?  / Nasdaq: $14,645, +22.9% upside

JB4wTLV.gif

SLV, GLD, SPY : w/XLE... from 11/2019: shs: YTD: 10d/ SLV: $24.33 , GLD:171.04, SPY:436.24, XLE:50.81 @7.14.2021

previoua SLV: $25.53 , GLD:176.04, SPY:414.94, XLE:52.16 @5.21.2021

q4ZXY9O.gif

==

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A Look at the Gold Stocks -to Gold ratio

GDXJ-toGLD, now at 27%, despite the Gold price being strong

(David Hunter thinks that GDXJ could hit $100 this year, and GLD $234- ie Gold $2500/ 10.7 - that would be a 42.7% ratio. 

His target for GDX to Gold is: 60/234= 25.6%, up from the current 17%. )

In fact, I should be looking at the comparison of Gold shares to UGL, the 2x Gold etf, because Gold shares are a leveraged play on Gold

Here's the GDX to-UGL ratio (5 years)

7yYkSNZ.png

 

...And the GDX to-UGL ratio (5 years)

Qo07qIv.png

At yesterday's Low of 76%, it was very close to the bottom of the Normal 75%-87.5% range

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The Power of the Fed (full documentary) | FRONTLINE

"They increased enormously the Wealth at the Top. And Inequality."
145,212 views ..  Jul 14, 2021

 

==

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GBS.L / Gold etf ... update / Last; GBS- $167.77 London Gold etf = $1,800

0pmTCN6.gif  

Are we in a Blue Box (peaking formation),  or a Green Box (continuation)?   current action looks like both.

Probably GREEN, because we are not so far from an important Low

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David Hunter@DaveHcontrarian
Aug 1
Gold & silver remain poised for big upside in the coming mos.Both metals bottomed in March & have spent the past 4 mos backing & filling,further discouraging frustrated investors.They're now ready to emerge from this consolidation & make a big run. Gold to $2500 & silver to $50.

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Stocks PEAKING?  Or Set for "spikey" Breakout?

SPY etc ... update:  10d:

SPY: $453.19, up 21.2% from YE-2020 ($373.88), vs: GLD/Gold ($178.36) > $169.25, -5.11%

7bGjnHx.gif

Precious Metals & Gold shares have lagged...

update: 10dUGL-$59.33, -13% from 68.20, GLD-$169.25, -5.1%, 178.36, since Ye2020

lQCZYis.gif

AGQ etc... fr. 2016: AGQ: $39.98

ScTXHmG.gif

Hunter's comments;

I see a lot of skepticism toward this equity market rally & even more toward the the metals & miners.I remain very bullish of equities & metals & expect sharply higher prices directly from here.SPX 5000,DJIA 40,000, Nasdaq 18,000, Gold 2500, silver 50, GDX 60, GDXJ 100,SIL 75,SILJ 35.

...

The market is just beginning its final melt-up leg into a secular top. Cyclical stocks, including transports, are just emerging from a 4 month consolidation & will join growth/tech to drive the markets sharply higher. S&P to 5000+,DJIA to 40,000+,Nasdaq to 18,000 & RUT to 2900.

Forecast from Sep. 2nd:

HUNTER: Ye2020: 9/02Forecast,  %

SPX —     3,756 :   4,537 >  5,000, +10.2%    
DJIA —  30,606 : 35,444 > 40,000, +12.9%
Nasdaq 12,888 : 15,331 > 18,000,  +17.4%
Gold —     1,894 :   1,810 >   2,500, +38.1%
UGL.  —   68.20 :  59.33 >   $104. +75.3%*
GDX.  —    36.02 :  32.50 >  60.00, +84.6%
GDXJ —    54.24 :  42.62 >   $100., +135%
Silver —    26.37 :  24.00 >   50.00,  +108%
AGQ   —    51.28 :  37.75 >  110.00, +191%*
SIL     —     45.62 :  40.03 >   75.00,  +87.3%
SILJ   —     16.31 :  13.34 >   35.00,  +162.%
====
* My own forecast, based on Hunter’s%

Ratio: GDX to SPY: "Normal range" seems to be 9%, +/- 2%.  Now 7.35%

ZNLxnwL.png

GDX vs. SPY, GLD ... 2016:

ysRa1qq.gif

Timing  : GDX :   GLD  :   SPY  : gd/S r: gd/G r: Spy/G
Ye2004: 00.00: $43.80: 120.87: ??.0%: ??.0%: r2.??
Ye2005: 00.00: $51.58: 124.51: ??.0%: ??.0%: r2.41
Ye2006: 39.91: $63.21: 141.62:
Ye2007: 45.83: $82.46: 146.21: 31.3%: 55.6%: r1.77
Ye2008: 33.88: $86.52:  90.24:
Ye2009: 46.21: 107.31: 111.44:
Ye2010: 61.47: 138.72: 125.75: 48.9%: 44.3%: 90.6%
Ye2011: 51.43: 151.99: 125.50:
Ye2012: 46.39: 162.02: 142.42:
Ye2013: 21.13: 116.12: 184.69:
Ye2014: 18.38: 113.58: 205.54:
Ye2015: 13.72: 101.46: 203.87: 6.73%: 13.5%:  r2.01
Ye2016: 20.92: 109.61: 223.53: 9.36%: 19.1%:  r2.04
Ye2017: 23.24: 123.65: 266.86: 8.71%: 18.8%:  r2.15
Ye2018: 21.09: 121.25: 249.92:  8.44%: 17.4%:  r2.06
Ye2019: 29.28: 142.90: 321.86: 9.09%: 20.5%:  r2.25
Ye2020: 36.02: 178.36: 373.88: 9.63%: 20.2%:  r2.10
Ye2021:
06.30. :  33.98: 165.63: 428.06: 7.94%: 20.5%:  r2.58
09.03. :  33.28: 171.06: 453.08: 7.34%: 19.5%;  r2.65
=====

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David Hunter@DaveHcontrarian ..  Still a Contrarian
 
SPX-etc. update: SpT: 10d/ T: TvF:2: SxS: / SPY:  445.44 -1.9% off YrH, IWM: 221.62 -5.5% off, XLF: 37.58 -3.7% off,
hWB7RiX.gif
 
Foreign currencies across the board are turning up & should see big rallies vs USD in coming weeks & months. Euro,GBP,CAD,AUD & even Peso & Brazilian Real poised to move up sharply while DXY heads for 85 & probably 80. This is what the metals are waiting for. It's coming.
 
DXY-etc. update: GdT: 10d/ GLD: 170.00, UGL:  445.44 -1.9% off YrH, GDX: 221.62 -5.5% off, XLF: 37.58 -3.7% off,
AqqsNuN.gif
 
FxeG: UDN#1-FxFx: #2-FxGl: 10d/ FXE: 110.14 +1.1% abv.YrL, Eur: 1.179, FXB: 133.28, +1.85% abv, FXC: 77.35 +5.4% abv,
WmMl7TY.gif
 
Investors came back from the holiday weekend in a cautious mood. I don't expect that caution to lead to much of a market decline.FAANGs & semis look good & I expect airlines, homebuilders, materials, miners, industrials & financials to resume their upside runs soon. S&P to 5000+.
Lumber & copper along with many other commodities topped out in early May & spent the summer in corrective mode.They're turning back up & will see sharp rallies in coming months.Lumber to $1000 & copper to $6.Inflation expectations to rise as will interest rates. 10yr to 2 1/2%.
 
GLD-in FXE -> essentially, Gold in Euro / DrCopper: $4.45
O7YNqLB.png

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Silver BUY zone: $21.75-22.75, and low yesterday was $21.58! 

HBXAuuY.png

This call looks impressive so far, he expected "one more drop in Silver" into that Buy zone, and we may have seen that yesterday. 

I haven't heard this megaphone technique he uses at Sniper before:  

Excellent Interview !       

Francis Hunt: Silver Will be The Shooting Star   >

===

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HUNTER's final rally, Dead Ahead?

Indices: SPX, PSEI, GDX . update: 4438.3 +18.2%, 7183.1 +0.61%, $43.99 -18.9%, YTD: -0.03% at 10/15

db058089a6_shrink.jpeg

MELTUP THEN MELTDOWN
@DaveHcontrarian still forecasts up to an 80%(!) crash, but he expects the market to first shoot up over 20%(!) before things roll over...

. 2 .

Both precious metals & industrial metals are poised for sharply higher prices in the weeks & months ahead. Gold,silver,copper & even steel stocks all are beginning what will be big rallies. Gold to $2500, silver to $50, copper to $6,GDX to $60,GDXJ to $100,SIL to $75 & SILJ to $35.

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Complete retrace of disinflation... back to 20%

And "biggest financial crisis the world has ever seen"

A Future Of 20%+ Inflation? | David Hunter On What Comes After The Next Market Crash (PT2)

===. 

 

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