HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted June 22, 2009 Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 Thought I'd put on my TA hat for the monthly gold chart. Something really interesting lept out at me in this chart. Can you see the 12 month SMA is acting as resistance and then support? It also coincides nicely with a 61.8% fib... Also, I drew 2 Median Lines, one from 2004 and one at the same angle for credit crunch era (2008). Can you see the ascending triangle with the 100% fib level? If my daily 916 doesn't hold, then my monthly 904.55 will be where the fight happens, and if that does not hold then 880 will be where wars break out. I don't know or really care how much gold will go to; I only care that when I buy my physical the spot price is the lowest. Is there anyone out there who has a different opinion? I am open for alternative views or even views that support me! wrt techincals, silver has also impressed me today* ditto palladium, tentative bottom? should give it a few days really but fomc meeting tomorrow (i think) remember the last one when they announced QE, ag/au took mysterious dives pre announcement only to rally back stronger post announcement and you can check the facts there aliveandkicking if you so wish *kiss of death edit. palladium seems to be bouncing off a rough trend line at present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecoface Posted June 22, 2009 Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 Is there anyone out there who has a different opinion? I am open for alternative views or even views that support me! I posted this last week on the Trading Diary thread: I'm not putting this on the Gold thread because the last time I aired my views on going short at $970, I got shot down. Gold seems to be taking a breather around 920-930. I have been short gold since 970 so done okay. But now we are in the doldrums. I have found it difficult to decide if to get out my short position or hold for further falls. We may have to wait for the Fed's meeting next wednesday for major movements in all markets including gold. If if the Fed holds rates then this could pummel gold. But I need further guidance. So I have looked at the last 2-3 months of movements in gold and compared patterns with the last 2 years'. The closest comparison to the 3 month pattern is that which peaked in August last year. MACD, momentum, RSI, correlation to 50 MA, all very similar indeed. That correction ended down near $750. If gold breaks $915-920 by next Thursday then expect the worse IMHO (it could bottom at $850 though). So I will continue to hold my SBUL (short gold) for another week (I had planned to exit tomorrow but I feel there is more to come). (FWIW if the Fed raises rates next Wed then this strategy changes.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 22, 2009 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 ... edit. palladium seems to be bouncing off a rough trend line at present I've got to buy more of this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted June 22, 2009 Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 I've got to buy more of this stuff. My thoughts exactly G0ldfinger! It seems ridiculously cheap compared to platinum. I realise: 1) it is primarily an industrial metal 2) demand from auto use has been hammered 3) platinum is preferred after the whole debacle where Russia with held supply and almost killed some auto makers as prices spiked to $1000 However, even taking all this in to consideration it looks a bargain. Especially as new uses are likely due to its unique properties regarding hydrogen absorption. Does anyone have any figures on how much it costs to mine per oz? Im guessing it is now uneconomical to mine this stuff at current prices. Perhaps we can move to the palladium thread to keep it on topic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted June 22, 2009 Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 wrt techincals, silver has also impressed me today* ditto palladium, tentative bottom? should give it a few days really but fomc meeting tomorrow (i think) remember the last one when they announced QE, ag/au took mysterious dives pre announcement only to rally back stronger post announcement and you can check the facts there aliveandkicking if you so wish *kiss of death edit. palladium seems to be bouncing off a rough trend line at present It's on Wednesday. The press release will be on Wednesday (24 June) at 19:00-19:30 British Summer Time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted June 22, 2009 Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 It's on Wednesday. The press release will be on Wednesday (24 June) at 19:00-19:30 British Summer Time thanks, i will be looking for some pre QE announcement action that day then does lightning strike twice? i remember JP saying he expected a QE announcement either in June or the next fomc meet (aug/sept?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted June 24, 2009 Report Share Posted June 24, 2009 thanks, i will be looking for some pre QE announcement action that day then does lightning strike twice? i remember JP saying he expected a QE announcement either in June or the next fomc meet (aug/sept?) Double-agent: I think the GBP-gold chart in your signature is showing USD-gold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted June 24, 2009 Report Share Posted June 24, 2009 Double-agent: I think the GBP-gold chart in your signature is showing USD-gold? At ~561 I hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted June 24, 2009 Report Share Posted June 24, 2009 I didn't know that mish liked gold... http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...at-does-it.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jinbal Posted June 24, 2009 Report Share Posted June 24, 2009 I didn't know that mish liked gold... http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...at-does-it.html Mish loves gold He just doesn't subscribe to the inflation = good for gold /deflation = bad for gold argument. He thinks gold is going much much higher from here as it is real money - he has some pretty good arguments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted June 24, 2009 Report Share Posted June 24, 2009 'Gold To Go' vending machines could be coming to Britain Holidaymakers passing through Britain's airports could soon have the chance to buy a block of gold from a vending machine, rather than a chocolate bar or a fizzy drink. A German-based company, TG Gold-Super-Markt, has just installed a sophisticated gold vending machine at Frankfurt airport and has plans to roll out 500 of the machines in airports and railway stations in Europe, including Britain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted June 24, 2009 Report Share Posted June 24, 2009 I didn't know that mish liked gold... He's been long-term bullish gold but his short to medium term view varies with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted June 24, 2009 Report Share Posted June 24, 2009 Has there been any news to make gold jump up USD 10? Or just the normal volatility? USD 936.70 and EUR 667.06 at the mo'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted June 24, 2009 Report Share Posted June 24, 2009 Has there been any news to make gold jump up USD 10? Or just the normal volatility? USD 936.70 and EUR 667.06 at the mo'. Maybe this? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8117138.stm $10 moves are so old hat now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted June 24, 2009 Report Share Posted June 24, 2009 Maybe this? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8117138.stm $10 moves are so old hat now! After making my post I thought to myself: hang on 10 dollars isn't much compared to what we were seeing sometimes before like 20 or 30 plus moves in a day. I mostly watch the euro price which has been range-bound between EUR 650 and 700 for the last 3 months. I'm beginning to get worried that the euro price may not have a good further correction this summer, having gone through a long solid period over 650, and maybe the euro won't continue to hold up against USD (it's USD 1.4027 right now). Silver managed to get below EUR 10 yesterday but I'm still slowly averaging in over the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 25, 2009 Report Share Posted June 25, 2009 Gold rises as China eyes bullionJune 25, 2009 - 2:46PM http://business.theage.com.au/business/mar...90625-cxrn.html Bullion earlier rose as high as $US936.30 after the head of the economic department of the Communist Party policy research office in China said at a Beijing forum that the country should buy more gold, and that purchasing land in the United States was a better option for China than buying US Treasuries. "News that Russia and China are reviewing their dollar-based assets has been circulating in the markets in the past six months," said Shuji Sugata, a manager in Mitsubishi Corp Futures and Securities' research team. "The comments from the Chinese researcher are within what has been said. But the fact that their stance in favour of gold has not been changed is a plus for gold and that's why it's being supported," he said. But gold was still off Wednesday's high of $US942.20, when currency movements boosted bullion's dollar-hedge appeal after an unexpected jump in US durable goods orders in May. Later in the day, the Fed, concluding a two-day meeting, said it would hold overnight rates in a range between zero to 0.25 per cent and gave no hint of an imminent exit from its easing monetary policy. Investors mostly took in stride the Fed's comments about low inflation risk, while at the same time remaining cautious on the US economy, traders said. "The Fed is checking a market bias toward either inflation or deflation. So, it's got to provide little incentive to trade after gold had a bumpy ride the day before," said Naomi Suzuki, a senior analyst at SC Asset Management Co. There are some bullish signs on technical charts as gold stopped falling at $US912.90 per ounce this week, traders and analysts said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicejim Posted June 25, 2009 Report Share Posted June 25, 2009 http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...et=0&page=1 Where does $32.8 trillion hide when it's scared? And what would be the effect on gold of just 1% of this money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted June 25, 2009 Report Share Posted June 25, 2009 Gold rises as China eyes bullionJune 25, 2009 - 2:46PM http://business.theage.com.au/business/mar...90625-cxrn.html we have the communists buying gold and the "free" world selling, leasing and naked shorting it what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted June 25, 2009 Report Share Posted June 25, 2009 I am still observing the Gold Cup & Handle formation as I believe this week will be a key week for gold. I am looking at 3 key peices of information: 1) 916 act as resistance and support in past - will 916 area hold? 2) 38.2% Fib level is very close to 916 level (If you draw the fib disregarding the shadows then it is bang on) 3) 100 day simple moving average is very close and may act as support. Anybody like to discuss? Starting to look like 912 was the low. 916 target pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 25, 2009 Report Share Posted June 25, 2009 we have the communists buying gold and the "free" world selling, leasing and naked shorting it what a joke Yeah, looks like history repeats. Historically, at the time the West viewed gold as purely money, Asia placed a higher value on it than merely a monetary one. Kublai Khan, for example, kept all the gold in house and just issued paper money for the populace. Internationally, they traded desired luxurious oriental merchandise for gold but then did not use the gold in turn to pay for trade with the west.... it piled up and modern economic theories of the day, along the lines that money/gold would always revert to a natural level among nations, were falsfied. Same could be happening today. David Hume's balance of trade theory; "It is impossible to heap up money, more than any other fluid, beyond its proper level." The idea being the piling up of treasure in one country will encourage that country to go out and spend. While the loss of purchasing power in another country will cause it to tighten its belt. Worked within European civilization, but Asian civilization was less accommodating to the theory and put a higher value on gold. So much for universal theories eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted June 25, 2009 Report Share Posted June 25, 2009 we have the communists buying gold and the "free" world selling, leasing and naked shorting it what a joke The sad joke/fact is that the communists in China seem to be doing a better job of running capatalism than those in Washington (or London) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted June 25, 2009 Report Share Posted June 25, 2009 Starting to look like 912 was the low. 916 target pretty close. Thanks! I think there will be a pool of buy orders accumulating between 941 and 947 and if they drive us over 954 then it is lift off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted June 25, 2009 Report Share Posted June 25, 2009 Will let my pictures do my talking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted June 25, 2009 Report Share Posted June 25, 2009 Will let my pictures do my talking Are you suggesting Gold will fly? "Thats not flying, thats..... falling, in style" said Woody when Buzz attempted to prove he could fly. Lets hope thats not what happens to gold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted June 25, 2009 Report Share Posted June 25, 2009 Are you suggesting Gold will fly? "Thats not flying, thats..... falling, in style" said Woody when Buzz attempted to prove he could fly. Lets hope thats not what happens to gold!! No don't say that, I was more thinking of the buzz lightyear saying "To infinity and beyond" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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