Jake Posted January 25, 2010 Report Share Posted January 25, 2010 Gold will likely go down in a deflationary period. Suggest you look at http://www.longwavegroup.com/ and Ian Gordon for thoughts to the opposite. Not that I am 100% sure of how gold will work out myself. Gold seems to do well when nothing pays interest and the world goes to hell generally. Safe haven is the name of the game. Everything else is shot to pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitkid Posted January 25, 2010 Report Share Posted January 25, 2010 http://usawatchdog.com/fannie-freddie-and-gold/ On Christmas Eve 2009, an $8 trillion addition to the federal debt was made by a single bureaucrat. This move by the Treasury is a budget buster and will guarantee some very big inflation. Gold will react to higher inflation with higher prices. There was only one other time in the last 10 years that there was such a clear signal precious metals were in for a ride. It was March 2006, and brand new Fed Chief, Ben Bernanke, decided to call an end to the M3 report. (a statistic that shows the broadest measure of all money in the system). The Fed effectively said it was not going to tell the world exactly how much money it was creating. You might as well have walked into the gold trading pits with a starting pistol because, after the M3 died, gold just about doubled in less than four years. Now, with the elimination of the caps on mortgage giants Fannie and Freddie, you will have gold off to the races again because the government will print money to pay off debt. And if we have another financial meltdown, like 2008, gold will take a moon shot. What makes me say that? It is H.R. 4173, which is the Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2009. This legislation is supposed to protect the little guy, but it also protects the banks with a provision in the bill to rescue them from financial ruin in the future. The Fed will have pre-authorization to give reckless banks as much as $4 trillion to, once again, bailout the incompetent. The bill has a long way to go before it is signed into law. Still, I’d say the odds are pretty good there will be another crisis; otherwise, Wall Street would not have paid their lobbyists to push a pre-authorized bailout. My advice to you is to brace yourself for the impact of inflation. The actions of the Treasury and Wall Street have guaranteed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitkid Posted January 25, 2010 Report Share Posted January 25, 2010 Gold can be bought at a cheaper price during a period of deflation because ordinary money becomes more desirable and often pays some interest also Gold is often not personally held and there is some cost of storing it somewhere else Gold tends to do well when inflation concerns are more urgently getting peoples attention than depressionary deflationary concerns are. In the last few months the possibility of a new boom in commodity prices appeared fairly likely but now we have China cooling things down there and not much activity elsewhere to make it appear we are going to be entering into inflation economic conditions in the near future. It appears the resurgence in economic conditions in the west will fade once this current blip is over as firms replace run down stocks to near earlier levels following the scares of last year This thread was asking the question will gold go up or down? Gold will likely go down in a deflationary period. For gold to rise in price more money has to be flowing into gold or buying Gold than money leaves gold or sells Gold In deflation or depression people have to sell investments to pay bills. Gold is still relatively highly valued and makes a good sale if you need the money. The price of gold is related to economic conditions and expectations of future economic conditions Almost nobody is now predicting a return to boom times. Almost everyone is seeing bad times ahead. Even oil is falling in price as people realise there just will not be the demand and there is too much oil. Thanks for the reply Alk eventhough i dont agree with much of your comment at least you can be bothered to reply to posts/questions. As for any one not personally holding there own physical metal i think they are CRAZY to take any third party risk. Get physical get hold of it and secure it yourself. PPPPPPLLLLLEEEEEAAAAAASSSSSSE.!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted January 25, 2010 Report Share Posted January 25, 2010 I've been adding to my core holding each time gold dips below 680GBP. A couple of recent articles suggest I may be in good company? Expect Gold to gain more than 30% this year - John Embry Sprott Gold – Lows Right Around the Corner Bob Hoye/Ross Clark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Nihilist Posted January 25, 2010 Report Share Posted January 25, 2010 I've been adding to my core holding each time gold dips below 680GBP. A couple of recent articles suggest I may be in good company? Expect Gold to gain more than 30% this year - John Embry Sprott Gold – Lows Right Around the Corner Bob Hoye/Ross Clark Just beat me to it ;-) Here are some updated graphics from the Hoye / Clark article: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fortune Posted January 26, 2010 Report Share Posted January 26, 2010 The fact that silver held on to $17 pretty well says to me that there is more of this leg yet to come. Silver is usually the whipping boy for any perceived deflation/deleveraging and it stood up to those forces quite bravely. Looks like Pixel8r's on the money with $1300+ by March/April - concurs with Armstrong turn date for gold (April 16). The ugly correction will follow after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted January 26, 2010 Report Share Posted January 26, 2010 The fact that silver held on to $17 pretty well says to me that there is more of this leg yet to come. Silver is usually the whipping boy for any perceived deflation/deleveraging and it stood up to those forces quite bravely. Looks like Pixel8r's on the money with $1300+ by March/April - concurs with Armstrong turn date for gold (April 16). The ugly correction will follow after that. fook me Silver @ $1300, I do hope so, I can retire then....... on a serious note, I have mentioned (as have others) about this 'Indian Floor' price in gold @$1045. Although this is from Nov 2009, it appears to be holding up atm: "(Zero Hedge – Tyler Durden) When two months ago we discussed the IMF’s selling of one eighth of its gold reserves of which as most know by know half was recently acquired by India, we came to the conclusion that the IMF’s proposed naive and subjective purpose for this disposition which was framed as “safeguarding against disruption in the gold market” "Gold has broken out yet again and is up another 1% so far today as it begins to challenge the $1,100/oz mark (according to unofficial IMF estimates, the Reserve Bank of India bought gold at $1,045/oz." has it ever been officially confirmed that the price was indeed $1045 ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 26, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2010 Pixel8r, I think it is no understatement to say that the gold bulls like your lines. http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=32772 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted January 26, 2010 Report Share Posted January 26, 2010 Pixel8r, I think it is no understatement to say that the gold bulls like your lines. http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=32772 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 26, 2010 Report Share Posted January 26, 2010 Gold holding on very well despite the dollar strength. Silver on the other hand very weak and looks like it could close below support. I have bought some silver today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted January 26, 2010 Report Share Posted January 26, 2010 I have bought some silver today... godda be happy with that one so far, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 26, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2010 I have bought some silver today... I would have bought some if I wouldn't need the money for my removal soon. Leaving the UK has the higher priority right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
signofthetimes Posted January 26, 2010 Report Share Posted January 26, 2010 I would have bought some if I wouldn't need the money for my removal soon. Leaving the UK has the higher priority right now. where you headed GF ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 26, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2010 where you headed GF ? Essentially back to where I came from. A more senior position with ultimate job security. They made me an offer I couldn't refuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted January 26, 2010 Report Share Posted January 26, 2010 Anyone taken a look at the new Junior Gold ETF from the bank of montreal? Stewart Thomson mentions it in his latest 321gold article but I cant seem to find out too much about it beyond: BMO Junior Gold Index ETF seeks to replicate, to the extent possible, the performance of a junior gold companies index, net of expenses. Currently, the ETF seeks to replicate the performance of the Dow Jones North America Select Junior Gold Index. The Manager may, in its discretion and without unitholder approval, change the Dow Jones North America Select Junior Gold Index to another widely recognized junior gold companies index in order to provide investors with exposure to a junior gold companies index. If the Manager changes the Dow Jones North America Select Junior Gold Index, or any index replacing such Index, the Manager will issue a press release identifying the new index. The investment strategy of the ETF is currently to invest and hold the Constituent Securities of the Dow Jones North America Select Junior Gold Index in the same proportion as they are reflected in the Dow Jones North America Select Junior Gold Index or hold securities intended to replicate the performance of the Index. The Manager may also use a sampling methodology in selecting investments for the ETF. As an alternative to or in conjunction with investing in and holding the Constituent Securities, the ETF may invest in or use certain Other Securities to obtain exposure to the performance of the Dow Jones North America Select Junior Gold Index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted January 27, 2010 Report Share Posted January 27, 2010 Gold holding on very well despite the dollar strength. Silver on the other hand very weak and looks like it could close below support. I have bought some silver today... Me too.... a forced buyer of sorts [sitting on funds at GM].... but it could turn out to be serendipitous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitkid Posted January 27, 2010 Report Share Posted January 27, 2010 How to live without banks Tom Hodgkinson, editor of The Idler, talks to Giles Dilnot in the City of London on how we can live without banks. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_...ics/8483213.stm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted January 27, 2010 Report Share Posted January 27, 2010 How to live without banks Tom Hodgkinson, editor of The Idler, talks to Giles Dilnot in the City of London on how we can live without banks. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_...ics/8483213.stm Cuthbert Calculus did an article for the Idler last year. I guess he didn't get paid in gold sovereigns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted January 28, 2010 Report Share Posted January 28, 2010 not sure if anyone mentioned this, but I believe we experienced Backwardation yesterday in the Gold market. edit: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/01/22...evisited-uh-oh/ (my bold/underlining) "Gold backwardation fears revisited, uh oh! Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Jan 22 11:30. It’s been a while since the gold bugs had a tasty scare-story to feed on. But those frustrations can now be dispelled. The Business Insider blog brings to our attention that net gold-lease rates are back on the rise, and more importantly gold-forward rates are dropping fast. And it’s true. The so-called GOFO rate set by the London Bullion Association dropped as low as 0.17167 on Wednesday — although it had perked up a bit by Thursday to 0.18500. To compare, the rate held firmly above 0.3 for most of December, 2009. Readers may recall GOFO rates went negative back in November 2008 for three whole days. At the time gold bugs said the move reflected a massive shortage in the supply of gold." further down in that same report it say this: "A decline in forward rates implies one of two things: There’s either a scarcity of metal available for swap or lease transactions, or there’s heavy forward selling." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted January 28, 2010 Report Share Posted January 28, 2010 Couple that with US T bill turning negative yield yesterday... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=ahegQQCnLVyo U.S. One-Month Bill Rate Negative for First Time Since March By Allison Bennett Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury one-month bill rates turned negative for the first time in 10 months, as issuance declines while investors seek the most easily-traded securities amid a renewal of risk aversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carbon junkie Posted January 28, 2010 Report Share Posted January 28, 2010 I am hoping I sniffed a bottom today so to speak, bought more juniors. fingers and toes crossed (mind I have covering short on CDE - just in case). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted January 28, 2010 Report Share Posted January 28, 2010 Anyone taken a look at the new Junior Gold ETF from the bank of montreal? Managed to find this list of securities they hold: http://www.stockhouse.com/blogs/ViewDetail...st.aspx?p=98721 Total Holdings* Securities % of Assets Centerra Gold Inc 9.70% Gammon Gold, Inc. 7.28% Alamos Gold Inc 7.03% Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp 6.93% Semafo Inc. 6.23% Seabridge Gold Inc 5.73% Detour Gold Corporation 5.44% Northgate Minerals Corp. 4.74% European Goldfields Ltd 4.57% Allied Nevada Gold Corp 4.52% Lake Shore Gold Corp 3.95% Golden Star Resources Ltd 3.82% Aurizon Mines Ltd. 3.53% NovaGold Resources Inc. 3.33% Great Basin Gold Ltd. 3.25% Fronteer Development Grp 3.00% Ventana Gold Corp 2.52% Tanzanian Royalty Explrtn 2.38% Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. 2.36% International Miner Corp 2.18% Guyana Goldfields Inc. 2.01% Dundee Prec Metals Inc. 1.58% Queenston Mining Inc. 1.46% US Gold Corp 1.19% Jinshan Gold Mines Inc 1.17% Cash 0.13% Total Holdings in Portfolio 26 *as of Jan 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted January 28, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2010 Has anyone else realized that Jim Sinclair doesn't mention the January 14 2011 date for gold at $1,650 so often anymore? EDIT: If Sinclair gets this one right in the end, it will have been an incredible call, especially given the price right now, less than a year to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted January 29, 2010 Report Share Posted January 29, 2010 time for the engines to thrust or is the starter motor faulty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted January 29, 2010 Report Share Posted January 29, 2010 Has anyone else realized that Jim Sinclair doesn't mention the January 14 2011 date for gold at $1,650 so often anymore? EDIT: If Sinclair gets this one right in the end, it will have been an incredible call, especially given the price right now, less than a year to go. Sinclair could be cutting it a bit fine with his timing. The next spike to 1650 could be 2 years away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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