GOLD

[El Dali]

I haven't stopped averaging in either, but I have slowed the amount I average in at-esp in gold. But still chipping away. It seems foolish to be holding the Yen bag for too long. I am holding onto my dollars as Prechters call here seems straightforward sense to me. Probably at least till Autumn if not longer. Long term, dollar bear of course, in due course after everything else, so no hate mail please dollar haters.

 

 

All up, I'm thinking of splitting my dollar reserve funds at GM between silver and gold over the next few weeks. Very timely dip I must say.

 

 

Dont you see dollar rising and pm's sinking a little more, a little longer? Perhaps keeping your powder drier for longer would be good advice (your own advice after all) notwithstanding your problems at GM.

 

 

I agree. I'm also in cash with goldmoney (got the same email and told them if i dont buy gold back before their "requirement date" i'll happily take my money to BullionVault), so holding out a little longer. But just a little longer. I'm not buying silver as i think it'll get bashed in deleveraging : with that said I understand RH's silver/USD hedge and think thats def a nice play. I'm entirely in cash now, but will buy my gold and hedge that by shorting indices when the right setups arrive.

 

Not actually too fussed about nominal price of Gold anymore because the real price will rise when commodities get their (IMO overdue) correction.

Under 1050 nominal i'll really think about buying Au again. Under 1000 and i'm in again for definite. Although i feel it could correct more than that i'll feel nice being in Gold again.

[Errol]

Good video summarizing different views on gold -

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BMPkktHOSw...embedded#at=410

 

I go with Rogers (though my long term targets are higher) - I buy if it falls or rises.

[carbon junkie]

Dont you see dollar rising and pm's sinking a little more, a little longer? Perhaps keeping your powder drier for longer would be good advice (your own advice after all) notwithstanding your problems at GM.

 

Good points. Ideally, I would like to hang onto a good solid dollar position, which I had previously assumed I could do at GM. The development at GM is good anecdotal evidence how policy, politics and regulation can affect your strategy and the playing field very quickly. I'm not concerned too much about what's transpired, best just to stay flexible and modify your strategy [no point wasting time and energy on things beyond your control]. For me, it is quite a hassle to pull my dollars out of GM [varying countries and currencies involved, not to mention bank charges] so will put this money into gold/silver on this timely dip. This just about puts me in the "all in" club. Because of this, I'll look to over the next few months raise dollar funds again .... this time at BV [there is no time limit on holding currencies there] and deep trade [infrequently] silver/ dollars on the big moves when they come. Since I will have most of my liquid worth in bullion, I will be aggressively dollar bullish at BV. The aim will be to trade silver and dollars looking to accumulate dollars. Same overall strategy, just modified a little due to changes I couldn't have foreseen at GM.

 

Edited

You have not responded to any of my points re your banning of me (you know where the thread is).

 

If you use the big stick you should be able to stand up and tell us all why.

 

PS can we ban you for a bit for repeating your own personal strategy in just about every post ad nauseum coz it is really boring and we all know when you are going to swap silver for gold etc.. coz you tell us about thrice a day.

 

 

 

 

[Errol]

Keep the discussions about banning/personal grievances to a seperate thread. Please. They have no place on a GOLD topic.

[carbon junkie]

Keep the discussions about banning/personal grievances to a seperate thread. Please. They have no place on a GOLD topic.

Yawn.

[electroweak]

Comex Registered Inventories had BIG moves this week! Time is running out for the paper gold people.

SILVER

total registered has hit just 47 MOz, the lowest I have ever seen it.

 

 

GOLD

Just lost half a million ounces from registered to 'eligible', which means

that half million ounces it has moved from being

"available to settle futures contracts"

to

"not available for settling futures contracts".

 

TOTAL REGISTERED PREV 2,310,592

ADJUSTMENT -512,779

TOTAL REGISTERED 1,797,813

[carbon junkie]

Comex Registered Inventories had BIG moves this week! Time is running out for the paper gold people.

SILVER

total registered has hit just 47 MOz, the lowest I have ever seen it.

 

 

GOLD

Just lost half a million ounces from registered to 'eligible', which means

that half million ounces it has moved from being

"available to settle futures contracts"

to

"not available for settling futures contracts".

 

TOTAL REGISTERED PREV 2,310,592

ADJUSTMENT -512,779

TOTAL REGISTERED 1,797,813

When it says not available does that mean either:

 

Its been used already to settle contract holders who refuse a FRN payout.

 

or

 

We are hoarding it and don't intend it to be used for settlement.

 

I am guessing its already been promised.

[electroweak]

Also, In Apr'09, the World Gold Council released this plot:

(from Page 5 here: http://www.gold.org/assets/file/rs_archive...April_2009.pdf)

showing that even in Jan09, including all Registered AND Eligible stocks, they only had 30% of the total long contract available in their warehouses.

 

Conveniently, they seem to have stopped producing that chart....But in any case the green band will be at about 8M Oz, and the eggshell one at about 1.7M Oz. Total long contracts anyone? - In any case, the Registered/Eligible proportions have reached historic lows.

 

In answer to CJ, I think 'eligible' means either segregated for clients / themselves or simply not yet proved good for delivery. Whatever, 'eligible' seems to be growing and 'registered' shrinking.

[azazel]

Also, In Apr'09, the World Gold Council released this plot:

(from Page 5 here: http://www.gold.org/assets/file/rs_archive...April_2009.pdf)

showing that even in Jan09, including all Registered AND Eligible stocks, they only had 30% of the total long contract available in their warehouses.

 

Conveniently, they seem to have stopped producing that chart....But in any case the green band will be at about 8M Oz, and the eggshell one at about 1.7M Oz. Total long contracts anyone? - In any case, the Registered/Eligible proportions have reached historic lows.

 

In answer to CJ, I think 'eligible' means either segregated for clients / themselves or simply not yet proved good for delivery. Whatever, 'eligible' seems to be growing and 'registered' shrinking.

 

Its just a matter of time before a parabolic rise IMO but it could be a few years yet though. Thanks for the encouraging charts Chris. Silver is still very cheap if it is really a precious metal.

[electroweak]

Its just a matter of time before a parabolic rise IMO but it could be a few years yet though. Thanks for the encouraging charts Chris. Silver is still very cheap if it is really a precious metal.

Just found out, the COMEX now has "total non commercial and non reportable net long positions of 22 MOz Gold". Obviously this is balanced by a large short position, but it's useful to keep track of...

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

 

 

From:

[Happy Nihilist]

Some interesting Gold charts I came across.

 

Looks like the 34, 55 and 233 week moving averages have provided key support levels in this bull market. Interestingly, since 2001, the 34/55 week lines have never crossed. It came close in 2008, but no cigar. Anyway, see what you make of them.

 

5 year

 

10 year

[Happy Nihilist]

Where are we now? I.e., do we find ourselves at the half-way consolidation phase through a big leg up in gold (Cf. 2006 and 2008 moves), or have we already exhausted the move up in Gold this time round?

 

From the longer term perspective, it would look entirely healthy if the price corrected to 1045 (34 week moving average) or even 1005 (55 week moving average) from here. But, judging from the chart below, if we did touch the 34 or 55 week moving average, that would suggest the big surge up has already completed this time around. Ross Clark (Institutional Advisors) has identified this week as a likely place where Gold will make an important low and could mark the beginning of Gold's second leg in this move up. Looking at the chart, it seems that this week is indeed make or break for deciding the foreseeable future in Gold. E.g., 34,55,0 MACD is on the verge of turning negative?

 

[Van]

 

Simple but very informative chart - shows us that on the brief occasions when RSI has dipped below 50 has been a great time to buy/add.

[Pixel8r]

Where are we now? I.e., do we find ourselves at the half-way consolidation phase through a big leg up in gold (Cf. 2006 and 2008 moves), or have we already exhausted the move up in Gold this time round?

I think we are halfway through this move. I have been saying since Sept 09 that this move will go to around $1350 by around end of March/early April.

 

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

I think we are halfway through this move. I have been saying since Sept 09 that this move will go to around $1350 by around end of March/early April.

 

Great chart, thanks.

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

Where are we now? I.e., do we find ourselves at the half-way consolidation phase through a big leg up in gold (Cf. 2006 and 2008 moves), or have we already exhausted the move up in Gold this time round?

 

From the longer term perspective, it would look entirely healthy if the price corrected to 1045 (34 week moving average) or even 1005 (55 week moving average) from here. But, judging from the chart below, if we did touch the 34 or 55 week moving average, that would suggest the big surge up has already completed this time around. Ross Clark (Institutional Advisors) has identified this week as a likely place where Gold will make an important low and could mark the beginning of Gold's second leg in this move up. Looking at the chart, it seems that this week is indeed make or break for deciding the foreseeable future in Gold. E.g., 34,55,0 MACD is on the verge of turning negative?

 

I think we are halfway through this move. I have been saying since Sept 09 that this move will go to around $1350 by around end of March/early April.

 

 

 

If this week is 'make or break' for this current au bull, perhaps the $index also needs to make a decision this week.......

 

 

 

edit - or perhaps next week looking at it again

[romans holiday]

 

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1264057320.php

 

A forecast for Comex Gold sent out to subscribers Monday night came within a dime of nailing the low of yesterdays $33 plunge. Thats the good news, and some subscribers evidently were able to make hay with the prediction. The bad news is that it looks doubtful that the 1106.80 print that marked the February contracts intraday low will hold, given the recent strength in the U.S. dollar. You can see how powerful the greenbacks uptrend is in the chart, below, of the NYBOT Dollar Index. Yesterday the index scored its most impressive gain in six weeks, rallying to within a hair of a Hidden Pivot resistance at 78.69. The actual high was 78.45, and although it could turn out to be an important top, this looks doubtful given the shallow pullback that has occurred so far. If the resistance point is decisively exceeded today, however say, by 0.10 points or more or if it is exceeded on a closing basis for two consecutive days, wed infer that the rally is bound for at least 80.78 -- roughly three percent above current levels.

 

Gold (and silver) would likely come down hard if that were to occur, continuing a correction begun in early December from around $1227 an ounce. The correction has already gone as low as $1075 (basis the February contract), but renewed weakness in the precious-metals sector could easily create a lower low. Weve provided a specific price target for such a correction in Thursdays Touts section of Ricks Picks, but if you are not a subscriber, you can gain access to this proprietary information, along with entrée to the 24/7 chat room, by clicking here. Suffice it to say, if the Dollar Index were to reach the 80.78 target mentioned above, the corresponding pullback we might expect in Gold would be even larger in percentage terms than the dollars gains.

 

Just a Correction

 

That said, we should mention that we see any prolonged bout of weakness in gold and silver as a buying opportunity, since our long-term outlook for both remains quite bullish. Precise upside targets well above these levels for bullion are given in the archives section of Ricks Picks that is accessible to all subscribers, including those who have joined on a trial basis. The purpose of these targets is to guide subscribers in managing the risk of long- and short-term positions. Even if the 1106.80 downside target does not survive this downtrend, it will have allowed subscribers to test the water without much risk of drowning. By avoiding extravagant billboard predictions of huge moves up or down, we narrow the focus to shorter-term swings that are generally easier to predict.

[Happy Nihilist]

I think we are halfway through this move. I have been saying since Sept 09 that this move will go to around $1350 by around end of March/early April.

 

 

Yes, it will be interesting to see how this pans out. I guess the problem with patterns/cycles like this is that they work until they don't. It looks to me that this (and maybe next) week will be important in determining whether this step like progression remains a valid roadmap?

[Happy Nihilist]

If this week is 'make or break' for this current au bull, perhaps the $index also needs to make a decision this week.......

 

 

 

edit - or perhaps next week looking at it again

 

Indeed, now seems a pivotal moment for markets in general.

 

 

By the way, here is a link to Ross Clark's Chartworks I mentioned earlier (published on 13th of Jan): Gold ... Resistance In Place

 

 

[romans holiday]

 

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

Indeed, now seems a pivotal moment for markets in general.

 

 

By the way, here is a link to Ross Clark's Chartworks I mentioned earlier (published on 13th of Jan): Gold ... Resistance In Place

 

 

thanks for that

 

actually, i am begining to wonder whether this 'pivotal moment' might drag on for a bit longer, perhaps 2-3 weeks. looking at the USDX again and throwing in silver for good measure, you could argue that the usdx is 'caught' in tight wedge and may not break free from there for a fortnight or so. Interestingly, ag is bouncing off the 4hr resistance trendline, seemingly awaiting gold and the $ to make up their minds.

 

Of course, this could also be a load of codswallop, but like Roy Walker says on Catchphrase "Say what you see"

 

[aliveandkicking]

The deflationists seem to have got back into the driving seat at the moment.

[fitkid]

The deflationists seem to have got back into the driving seat at the moment.

Relevance to the gold thread?????????

[aliveandkicking]

Relevance to the gold thread?????????

 

Gold can be bought at a cheaper price during a period of deflation because ordinary money becomes more desirable and often pays some interest also

 

Gold is often not personally held and there is some cost of storing it somewhere else

 

Gold tends to do well when inflation concerns are more urgently getting peoples attention than depressionary deflationary concerns are.

 

In the last few months the possibility of a new boom in commodity prices appeared fairly likely but now we have China cooling things down there and not much activity elsewhere to make it appear we are going to be entering into inflation economic conditions in the near future. It appears the resurgence in economic conditions in the west will fade once this current blip is over as firms replace run down stocks to near earlier levels following the scares of last year

 

This thread was asking the question will gold go up or down?

 

Gold will likely go down in a deflationary period.

 

For gold to rise in price more money has to be flowing into gold or buying Gold than money leaves gold or sells Gold

 

In deflation or depression people have to sell investments to pay bills. Gold is still relatively highly valued and makes a good sale if you need the money.

 

The price of gold is related to economic conditions and expectations of future economic conditions

 

Almost nobody is now predicting a return to boom times. Almost everyone is seeing bad times ahead.

 

Even oil is falling in price as people realise there just will not be the demand and there is too much oil.