GOLD

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/05072008/140/gold-...-reopening.html

 

Gold Boom Prompts Mine Reopening

 

Scotland's only remaining gold mine is expected to reopen in the next few weeks due to the precious metal's soaring price.

[harold bishop]

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/05072008/140/gold-...-reopening.html

 

Gold Boom Prompts Mine Reopening

 

Scotland's only remaining gold mine is expected to reopen in the next few weeks due to the precious metal's soaring price.

 

That was a very bullish report and the investors will like that.

 

I suspect we will start to see a rash of small, closed-downs mines "re-opening". Even with high metal prices, it is often very difficult to start producing again. In the UK, mines are often: flooded, need new machinery, need to meet very stringent H & S requirements, cannot economically meet environmental obligations, in particular pumping out, treating and disposal of the mine water. Tin is riding high yet the Cornish tin mines have not swung into action.

 

Production of base and precious metals continues in low cost regions which pay scant attention to the above issues, yet they achieve the same market price.

 

Still, I think stories like this are bullish for gold.

[warpig]

Your preaching to the converted.

 

Yes, labels can be limiting. The way I see it is that inflation and deflation are two sides of the same coin... pun intended.

 

In the near future, we will no doubt see a period of rampant inflation which may be followed on by deflation. The essential matter is a currency crisis and that is where monetary metals will do extremely well as an alternative currency no matter the flavour of the flation.

 

[romans holiday]

Your preaching to the converted.

 

Preaching? Did not realize I had any orthodox views.

[Gatesy]

NYMEX To Change Margins For Gold Futures Contracts

02/07/08

 

The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. announced today that it will change margins for its gold futures contracts, effective at the close of business tomorrow.

 

Gold futures margins will increase to $3,750 from $3,250 for clearing and non-clearing members and to $5,063 from $4,388 for customers.

 

Margins for the Asian gold futures contract will increase to $1,206 from $1,045 for clearing and non-clearing members and to $1,628 from $1,411 for customers.

 

Margins for the COMEX miNYTM gold futures contract will increase to $1,875 from $1,625 for clearing and non-clearing members and to $2,531 from $2,194 for customers.

 

So does this mean prices up or down in the short term... A few possible scenarios as follows?

 

1) Large long investors have to find more margin for existing positions and thus close out (sell) some positions if they are already margined to the near maximum = short term downward price pressure

2) The big short players are already more leveraged than the longs and have to liquidate (buy to cover) some of their positions to stay in the market = short term upward price pressure

3) Neither longs nor shorts are overly leveraged and can afford to add margin to keep existing positions open?

 

hmmm.

[wren]

An interesting chart from a gold-eagle article (June 29):

 

We are not aware of any universal indicator of worldwide investment demand for gold. In our opinion, the best such indicator is the change in Net Assets (in tonnes) by SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).

Investment demand typically leads gold price. As shown on the chart, the number of tonnes owned by GLD has spiked over the past few weeks – a bullish signal for gold going forward.

 

This is an excerpt from a Resource Stock Guide Newsletter dated June 29, 2008.

 

Boris Sobolev

Does wheelybin have up-to-date BV tonnes data?

[electroweak]

An interesting chart from a gold-eagle article (June 29):

 

 

Does wheelybin have up-to-date BV tonnes data?

BV stats:

Jan 1st:

London New York Zurich

1,119.309 100.759 3,686.673

 

Update, Jan 17th:

London New York Zurich Dollars Euros Pounds

1,193.979 100.759 3,841.605 9,259,658.19 3,326,113.76 8,296,953.72

 

Jan 19th:

1,193.979 100.759 3,953.144 6,114,258.22 3,483,138.65 8,242,350.35

 

Jan 23rd:

1,231.226 100.759 4,025.662 13,800,959.78 3,853,177.40 7,832,031.98

 

Jan 25th:

1,231.226 100.759 4,329.463 7,327,180.47 3,924,654.15 7,009,863.09

 

Feb 8th:

1,305.945 100.759 4,501.463 6,951,230.00 3,892,929.64 6,811,793.14

 

March 31st:

1,492.919 125.763 5,208.692 8,172,452.99 4,130,662.05 7,980,284.95

 

April 11th:

London New York Zurich Dollars Euros Pounds

1,517.845 125.763 5,109.531 9,425,495.90 4,748,511.67 8,012,199.89

 

April 28th:

London New York Zurich Dollars Euros Pounds

1,604.920 125.763 5,309.789 7,701,088.23 2,913,938.08 7,941,712.42

 

May 9th:

London New York Zurich Dollars Euros Pounds

1,604.920 138.264 5,372.568 7,220,343.22 3,329,552.85 7,776,096.24

 

June 18th:

London New York Zurich Dollars Euros Pounds

1,754.442 138.263 5,647.962 7,951,632.60 3,126,505.00 5,920,794.81

 

July 4th:

London New York Zurich Dollars Euros Pounds

1,779.492 150.765 5,698.238 9,017,039.86 3,405,475.33 6,960,365.97

 

modest increases in bullion in 3 locations, Dollars nearly doubled (!) , Euros halved, GBP up 20%.

[frizzers]

So does this mean prices up or down in the short term... A few possible scenarios as follows?

 

1) Large long investors have to find more margin for existing positions and thus close out (sell) some positions if they are already margined to the near maximum = short term downward price pressure

2) The big short players are already more leveraged than the longs and have to liquidate (buy to cover) some of their positions to stay in the market = short term upward price pressure

3) Neither longs nor shorts are overly leveraged and can afford to add margin to keep existing positions open?

 

hmmm.

 

That's my reading of it Gatesy. In a word: volatility.

 

I do remember they changed the margin requirements for silver on the Comex around about April 20th, 2006 and we got a horrible nasty sell off

[FLASH]

That's my reading of it Gatesy. In a word: volatility.

 

I do remember they changed the margin requirements for silver on the Comex around about April 20th, 2006 and we got a horrible nasty sell off

 

Is this likey to affect both gold and silver, i.e if the gold price falls will it take silver with it?

[Compounded]

That's my reading of it Gatesy. In a word: volatility.

 

I do remember they changed the margin requirements for silver on the Comex around about April 20th, 2006 and we got a horrible nasty sell off

 

I suppose if they trying to scare the average man away from gold, a volatile price would definately help.

 

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Well, this ought to scare the average man away from wall street

 

-----------------

 

Dear Jim,

 

Let's see, first we had Jim Sinclair and Harry Schultz warning of a dire financial outcome. Then along came Leap E2020 followed in quick succession by RBS, Barclay's and now Societe Generale. The following is quoted from an article in USA Today, with the link provided:

 

"A mega-bear at Societe Generale, analyst Albert Edwards, warns of a deep recession caused by the fallout from the unwinding of the debt bubble. The ensuing sell-off, he says, will knock the S&P 500, now trading at 1262, all the way down to 500. That equates to a drop of 60% from current levels.”

 

More…

 

CIGA Doug

 

-----------------

 

And the article is this one:

 

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2008...s-outlook_N.htm

Waiting for stocks to rally? Don't hold your breath

 

[Bobsta]

So... the market's drifted down during the night. The US traders will be coming in later having had a long holiday weekend..... Many of them will have been mulling the current economic state over in their mind.

 

They're either gonna grab this gold bull by its horns and take it to new highs.

or

They're gonna destroy the gains made last week.

 

(IMO)

 

The only problem is, I'm undecided as to which way it'll go. I guess I'm 40:60 (leaning more towards the bearish) and that means I feel I should be mostly out of the market (aside from core holdings, that is).

 

Thoughts from others?

[ChrisP]

So... the market's drifted down during the night. The US traders will be coming in later having had a long holiday weekend..... Many of them will have been mulling the current economic state over in their mind.

 

They're either gonna grab this gold bull by its horns and take it to new highs.

or

They're gonna destroy the gains made last week.

 

(IMO)

 

The only problem is, I'm undecided as to which way it'll go. I guess I'm 40:60 (leaning more towards the bearish) and that means I feel I should be mostly out of the market (aside from core holdings, that is).

 

Thoughts from others?

there was lots of talk on here last week about a dollar rally this week. If true then gold might take a hit. I'm not too worried. Just look around at the devastation in the financial wasteland...

[alexreeve]

So... the market's drifted down during the night. The US traders will be coming in later having had a long holiday weekend..... Many of them will have been mulling the current economic state over in their mind.

 

They're either gonna grab this gold bull by its horns and take it to new highs.

or

They're gonna destroy the gains made last week.

 

(IMO)

 

The only problem is, I'm undecided as to which way it'll go. I guess I'm 40:60 (leaning more towards the bearish) and that means I feel I should be mostly out of the market (aside from core holdings, that is).

 

Thoughts from others?

15 point drop is more than drifting down, particularly in the usually subdued asian market. I think there'll be massive selling today, that's presumably the point of raising the margin requirements just as it's broken out of its downtrend. I'm not usually a big fan of attributing drops to market manipulation, but in this case I think the margin change will be co-ordinated with a big sell to really squeeze highly margined longs.

[Justin Thyme]

there was lots of talk on here last week about a dollar rally this week. If true then gold might take a hit. I'm not too worried. Just look around at the devastation in the financial wasteland...

 

Another week, another potential lifeline. Two weeks ago, it was the weekend OPEC meeting, this week it's the G8 summit in Japan. There's waffle and double waffle about dollar support being fairly high on the agenda

but my guess is that what Peter Schiff said here

 

Intervention advocates must believe that if the ECB and a few other central banks joined the fray, that a better outcome would be achieved. However any additional efforts to artificially prop up the ailing dollar will be equally ineffective. Even if ECB intervention could slow the dollar’s decent, what possible reason would they have for doing so? The ECB is already concerned about inflation and is preparing to raise rates as a result. Intervention to support the dollar will only worsen Europe’s inflation problem and run counter to these efforts. This is because to buy dollars the ECB must increase its own money supply. That is exactly what is happening in countries like China and Saudi Arabia, which is why inflation in those nations is already much higher than it is in Europe.

 

will most likely be the theme running through the colective minds of the delegates.

 

I think this week is also earnings week for the Wall Street banks so plenty of turmoil to spoil the dollar bull party.

[ologhai]

For myself, I'm just wondering at what price I ought to be tempted to top up my core position!

[darreng1000]

if it drops to, or close to, $880 (200 day MA) then I will be in for some more.

[romans holiday]

I loaded up at 930... my reasoning was why worry about pennies. ... which is what dollars are going to be worth soon.

[headmelter]

I was hoping for the dip to occur last week.

 

Dry powder remains in position and I can be patient.

 

Well for a while anyway.

[bitbigt]

As I mentioned last week - based upon charts, fundamentals, and sentiment, I think we'll range between 910 - 950 for a while before breaking out to the upside. I find it very hard to imagine we'll go to 900 or below again.

[headmelter]

If we get down to $910 I'm all in, burying it in the garden and checking the spot price in January.

[Bobsta]

Looking at both the gold and silver charts, someone had a little go at a sell-off on NY open... but didn't get very far.

[bitbigt]

If we get down to $910 I'm all in, burying it in the garden and checking the spot price in January.

...good idea. What's your addres by the way?

[kernull]

got gold at 920 (at oil pullback to 140.50), looks good support to me, stop 917.50

[Bobsta]

got gold at 920 (at oil pullback to 140.50), looks good support to me, stop 917.50

Just tripped?