G0ldfinger Posted August 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 ... Totally false analogy. Speculators are not buying physical gold (except for a very few). All wine drinkers are buying physical. The demand for physical from gold bugs is tiny and seems to be largely satisfied by frikkin' eBay, FFS. eBay shifts very little physical indeed, on the scale of things. Dream on. People who really know what they're doing ONLY buy physical. $1,040,000,000,000,000 nominal value in OTC derivatives. Almost $100,000,000,000,000 in unfunded US liabilities. Gold at $800. Hello? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwerty Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 Of course some was, but only to gold bugs and very desperate jewelers. There is article after article on Kitco, for example, describing what happened to Indian and physical demand in general in the Spring. It crashed. And others bought up the slack! And China has just started The World's #1 Gold Importer The Vietnamese government's decision to ban gold imports follows an unprecedented surge in gold ownership. The locals have lunged for gold bullion lately. In fact, they even surpassed India and China as the world's largest source of demand. Gold production is already approaching net supply deficit. The largest gold exporters, South Africa and Australia continue to struggle to bring new supply to the market this decade. Demand destruction is the code-word for declining consumption when commodity prices rise exponentially. So far, this has NOT happened in Vietnam. Fabrication demand has fallen sharply in India as gold prices raced through US$750 an ounce last fall. But despite a surging price since last August, the Vietnamese continue to absorb imports at a record clip - until now. According to the World Gold Council, Vietnam's first quarter gold imports were 36.8 tons. That's up an astounding 71% from the first quarter in 2007. And gold-hungry consumers purchased 31.5 tons of that total supply or 86% as investments. In other words, they're buying gold to protect their wealth against rising inflation and a weak currency. Sound familiar ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 Dream on. People who really know what they're doing ONLY buy physical. $1,040,000,000,000,000 nominal value in OTC derivatives. Almost $100,000,000,000,000 in unfunded US liabilities. Gold at $800. Hello? What is your estimate for the weight of physical that speculators take delivery of, compared to say the Indian jewelry market? I think you seriously, seriously over-estimate the prevelance of gold buggery. There are jewelry shops everywhere, yet posters often have to ask "where can I buy physical?" it is so obscure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 What is your estimate for the weight of physical that speculators take delivery of, compared to say the Indian jewelry market? ... The gold market is very obscure. No one knows the real numbers. For instance, take China. Do you really think the Chinese central bank only holds 600 tonnes of gold (as they claim)? Even I don't think they're THAT stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 The gold market is very obscure. No one knows the real numbers. For instance, take China. Do you really think the Chinese central bank only holds 600 tonnes of gold (as they claim)? Even I don't think they're THAT stupid. More speculation. Not fundamentals in the usual use of the word. I am not denying that speculators may get lucky, just trying to seperate speculative and fundamental demand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 I would have to respectfully disagree, Argentina, Russia and China (to name a few) are all bolstering their gold positions. The "jewelry brigade" are the only people who generate demand for physical. It was the speculative paper game that took gold up to above $1000 and back down again. Physical wasn't selling at those prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 I would have to respectfully disagree, Argentina, Russia and China (to name a few) are all bolstering their gold positions. Is it possible to post a link to some reliable figures for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 I think you seriously, seriously over-estimate the prevelance of gold buggery. There are jewelry shops everywhere, yet posters often have to ask "where can I buy physical?" it is so obscure. In this country, yes. In places like vietnam gold is the unofficial currency. They even have mortgages denominated in gold ounces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 I'll have a google. Is it possible to post a link to some reliable figures for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 In this country, yes. In places like vietnam gold is the unofficial currency. They even have mortgages denominated in gold ounces. I am shocked. I thought gold could never become a proper currency again until the USD had totally and utterly failed - which I am certain will happen sometime, will probably happen in the next 10 years but could be decades away. I was under the illusion that countries with failing fiat like Russia, Zimbabwe etc. just adopted the USD as a black market currency not gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 More speculation. Not fundamentals in the usual use of the word. I am not denying that speculators may get lucky, just trying to seperate speculative and fundamental demand. No such thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dom Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 goverment eh ? that is nice, so humans are in charge of the money supply then, yeah ? good luck with that mate. Look at the long history of gold backed currency, it's retarded! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 Good advice Steve I plan to do this to bolster my holdings. By the way, I'm a Gemini so I don't think this will help and guide me in one direction! And guess what ? I read this morning that Ted Butler has copied my idea :lol: Satisfy yourselves. Have gold AND silver I did suggest this ages ago by theway: Gold versus Silver Volatility & Swapping http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ic=3127&hl= with charts to backup the idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevecook172001 Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 I am shocked. I thought gold could never become a proper currency again until the USD had totally and utterly failed - which I am certain will happen sometime, will probably happen in the next 10 years but could be decades away. I was under the illusion that countries with failing fiat like Russia, Zimbabwe etc. just adopted the USD as a black market currency not gold. I would be very surprised if gold was not used as an unnoficial currency in Zimbabwe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enrieb Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 Is it possible to post a link to some reliable figures for this? Since your asking Warpig to come up with some links to justify his statement, made in response to yours, could you be so kind as to return the favor and give some links to support your statement. The "jewelry brigade" are the only people who generate demand for physical. It was the speculative paper game that took gold up to above $1000 and back down again. Physical wasn't selling at those prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 Physical wasn't selling at those prices. I can disprove that. I bought 1oz at $1000 QED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 GF, I'm going to repeat your post with some more spacing to make it easier to read. It's a very interesting read. ---------------------- Subject: UBS Metals Daily: 20/08/08: "Busiest in My Career" We had a long conversation with our physical gold specialist in Zurich yesterday as he wanted to update us on what had gone on in the market over the past few weeks. Erwin, who has traded our physical book for 20years, reports that over the past two weeks our vault staff have been the busiest he can remember across his career with demand for all types of gold from all sorts of clients. The only time we were as busy as this was in the first half of 2005, when rampant demand from India bought allthe gold we could supply. Recent demand has been as strong as this, but more geographically spread: the Middle East, some parts of Europe andother Asia (ex India) have also seen very good buying, with refineries struggling to supply their customer needs. We have heard anecdotal evidence of Indian kilobar premiums above $2/oz, much higher than theusual 60-80c, and other premiums are also extremely strong both inSwitzerland and in the important gold consuming markets. The demand we have seen is strongly suggestive of an evaporation of scrap supply,something that has been a large part of the gold market over the past year, which is another important sign. As the largest clearer in Switzerland we can say with confidence that the physical gold market has demonstrated that it collectively considers gold to be attractively priced between $780 and $820/oz. The last time we saw strong (but not this strong) gold demand was in August 2007 withgold around $660/oz. We had estimated that gold would have to get downto $700-750/oz to be stimulate demand, but this proved too pessimistic:after a year of dull fundamental demand, the gold industry can wait no longer and has had to pay up to $800/oz, a much higher price than we expected. So why, in the face of this very strong physical demand, has gold fallen? The answer is simple: long liquidation by investors andspeculators trading on the OTC and futures markets. The accompanying chart shows how Tocom open interest fell has declined over the pastcouple of months: we showed the COTR for Comex gold on Monday in the daily. Gold ETF holdings have held up pretty well so far with no sign ofthe frantic liquidation seen in the Platinum ETF. But a combination of speculative liquidation and new short selling was enough to counter thestrong physical demand, and gold sank lower. Another way of looking at the impact of the strong fundamental demand is in gold's performance relative to other precious metals. As we noted in yesterday's Metals Daily, gold has greatly outperformed silver, platinum and palladium and we attribute this to the much greater proportion of price elastic demand for gold than for the other precious metals. The final point to consider is that the recent transactions have been between fast money, selling; and sticky money, buying. A large amount of gold has moved into the hands of longer term holders. And while the frantic demand of the past two or three weeks will probably soon slow, that won't matter: long positioning is now greatly reduced. Any shorts looking to cover may find fewer sellers than they expect considering thestrong hands that now hold gold. We hold our one and three monthforecasts for gold at $850 and $900/oz respectively. All that stands in the way of an impressive tactical gold rally is a correction in the dollar. If you are confident that EURUSD has seen its low for the nearterm, buy gold now. Other short term precious metals forecasts adjusted Following the sell-off across the precious metals markets that has seenall metals fall, we have adjusted our short-term precious metalsforecasts, something that we did not do when we cut our short-term goldprice forecasts a couple of weeks ago. In line with our view in gold, we see some upside in one month for all precious metals and further upsideover a three month period. We now forecast that platinum will trade to$1550/oz in one month and $1700/oz in three months; we see palladium at$300/oz and $350/oz in one and three months respectively; we expect silver to increase to $14.70/oz in one month and $16.40 in three months;and we see some recovery in the rhodium price from current levels justabove $4000/oz, although we do not recommend investors trade rhodium dueto the illiquid, opaque nature of this market. http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=16610 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 Stop press B.Bulls says BUY OIL on the daily indicator [CRUD ETF ticker] this could be the commodity revival we've been waiting for! Currently $114 for Brent crude. + its just above its 200D SMA average from my view point. I m sounding confident here - oh be careful too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njpurser Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 Stop press B.Bulls says BUY OIL on the daily indicator [CRUD ETF ticker] this could be the commodity revival we've been waiting for! Currently $114 for Brent crude. + its just above its 200D SMA average from my view point. I m sounding confident here - oh be careful too! Spike at next bank failure imminent. 100% gauranteed. Nick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 GF, I'm going to repeat your post with some more spacing to make it easier to read. It's a very interesting read. ... Cheers. Most bullish thing i have read in months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 Spike at next bank failure imminent. 100% gauranteed. Nick Let's face it: - Russians stay in Georgia - Iran threatens to block Gulf - US provokes Russia with missile shield - Russia threatens to nuke Poland We could see +$200 oil much sooner than I would hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magpie Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 I would be very surprised if gold was not used as an unnoficial currency in Zimbabwe Well maybe, but the dollar or other foreign currencies are far more prevalent in the black market there, from what I've heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 Well maybe, but the dollar or other foreign currencies are far more prevalent in the black market there, from what I've heard. That is because gold is extremely rare. (Which can not be said about the US-Dollar, BTW.) Was the same in the Weimar hyperinflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted August 20, 2008 Report Share Posted August 20, 2008 Well maybe, but the dollar or other foreign currencies are far more prevalent in the black market there, from what I've heard. I would certainly expect it, who knows about gold? Real money has been the all powerful dollar for so long now. Failure of the dollar is needed for the paradigm shift IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catflap Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 BlackRock Gold & General today put in a higher low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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