GOLD

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

I just spoke to a jeweler , friend of mine that lives in Taxco, the Silver capital of Mexico, he said this is a good time to buy and they sell at (day_high+day_low) / 2 of NY spot price. This problem of delivery happens only in US I guess.

 

 

I read another blog from that link (8th Aug), here's a bit that caught my eye:

 

'These are my observations after 40 years. No need to push a point. I CHANGE my views as the market changes them. Much like the gofer in so many organized crime movies, when I need an opinion, the market tells me what my opinion is.........

 

For that reason, I can be bullish this week and bearish next.... no agenda, just trying to profit......OBJECTIVITY....my goal. We all have the same end, I just dont have the time to read everyone anymore, so I trust the markets data, not just one market and not just one kind of data.'

 

Sort of a 'which way the wind blows' approach if you ask me.

 

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

Maybe the US-Dollar really is the biggest turd out there. Even bigger than the British Pound. Although, the nationalization of HBoS, RBS and Barclays would increase British national debt quite a bit.

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

 

What in Euroland compares to this situation that is capable, able and probable to double the US debt in one day?

 

[Gloomberg:] Fannie, Freddie Fall on Likely Need for a Bailout (Update4)

[njpurser]

Maybe the US-Dollar really is the biggest turd out there. Even bigger than the British Pound. Although, the nationalization of HBoS, RBS and Barclays would increase British national debt quite a bit.

The one year charts on these two are absolutely horrifying. When one considers their size, importance, and previously implicit backing it is clear this has to blow bigtime.

 

No way out.

 

Nick

 

[alexays]

a prediction of silver to 6 bucks:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_R55OJ80AZ4U/SKlw...BADgoodNews.png

source: http://denaliguidesummit.blogspot.com/

if oil goes to 80, gold hits 600 and gold/silver ratio goes to 100 at that moment, this is price is possible.

 

Horse Shit

[electroweak]

Wierd Gold price action in the last 15mins.

Edit: coincides with the end of the gap in NY Globex thingy on Kitco. Hmm........

[Steve Netwriter]

By choice, wunderkind, by choice.

 

Nick

 

A new catch phrase I think:

 

Clueless. By choice

 

[drbubb]

SILVER - looking back at the drop

 

Silver fell from roughly 14.30 to 12.30 on the December, 2008 futures.

 

We checked with our broker this morning and he figured somebody had a large silver futures order posted with thousands of contracts and didn’t meet a margin call. The broker had to close ‘em out and silver skidded $2.00; a rather large negative move to say the least. Since this apparently happened in the night during thin electronic trading, there was nobody on the other side of this failed trade to help.

 

/more: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/aug152008.html

 

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Interesting.

 

-----------

 

Just found this:

 

Fooled by narrative fallacy

http://cij.inspiriting.com/?p=519

 

Well, the fact that one asks such a question shows that one has fallen into the trap of narrative fallacy. Narrative fallacy demands that the reason be found. But in reality, the reason is nothing more than a reason. Sometimes, a number of these reasons can be more dominant than the others.

 

[Dubai]

This is odd.... there's a "market price" for metal..... but there's a price which you will have to pay if you actually want some.....

 

 

Now here's the curious thing: I went to the US Mint site this morning and wanted to see if they would sell a one ounce Gold Eagle. Yup, they will. But the price for an uncirculated 2008 Gold Eagle is not anywhere near spot ($790). They are asking $1,119.95 for a one ounce coin.

 

A few other savvy financial writers are onto this - and I would draw your attention to Jason Hommel's piece posted over at Gold Eagle titled "Why Paper Silver is not as good as Physical Silver" as a fine example.

 

 

 

http://www.independencejournal.com/today.htm

 

[marmite]

Asia getting a beating tonight

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

 

Gold also down a bit

[kernull]

Asia getting a beating tonight

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

 

Gold also down a bit

 

i think this hammering is getting to its end soon, maybe this night.and the greenback to test its breakout area.

[marmite]

Silver Sammy Sighting

 

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=292873

[Dispassion]

I think this dollar strength is a temporary thing. They are just paving the way for the next wave of write-downs. I don't buy into the bubble popping of commodities, I believe this is just a healthy correction in a bull market. Think the commodities super cycle will be resuming soon.

 

Ask yourself how can the dollar be gaining strength when they are bailing out everything, while running the printing presses at full speed.

 

I think that the key factor affecting the gold price, isn't how quickly the dollar devalues in absolute terms, but how it performs relative to the Euro.

 

[rgleeson]

This is odd.... there's a "market price" for metal..... but there's a price which you will have to pay if you actually want some.....

 

Now here's the curious thing: I went to the US Mint site this morning and wanted to see if they would sell a one ounce Gold Eagle. Yup, they will. But the price for an uncirculated 2008 Gold Eagle is not anywhere near spot ($790). They are asking $1,119.95 for a one ounce coin.

 

I'm find it tough to rationalize opposing thoughts on this subject. Is the price of coins high because there is a physical shortage, or because there is sufficient sucker market who are willing to pay a premium.

 

Is there a physical shortage? Well not for investment bars. BullionVault seems able to exectue purchases without delay at spot price, but in that case you are buying portion of an investment bar.

 

But many PM fluffers want to hold physical in their hand, and full bullion bars are out of the question, so they/we turn to coins

 

So it is quite possible without hard evidence of a physical shortage, that the range between investment grade and coins has increased representing the divergent opinion of the customer base that has access to coins vs. bars. The price of something is what the market will sustain.

 

If this is true the winners here are the mints, since they have increased their margin from spot to resale. My advice is purchase from BV and stay close to spot.

[G0ldfinger]

There are places where even the price of silver has gone up a lot recently.

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/08/19...tion/index.html

HARARE, Zimbabwe (CNN) -- Zimbabwe's inflation rate has soared in the past three months and is now at 11.2 million percent, the highest in the world, according to the country's Central Statistical Office.

 

..., despite the government's price controls.

...

Analysts have said the Zimbabwean government's official inflation rate figures are conservative. Last week, one of Zimbabwe's leading banks, Kingdom Bank, said the country's inflation rate was now more than 20 million percent.

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

If this is true the winners here are the mints, since they have increased their margin from spot to resale. My advice is purchase from BV and stay close to spot.

 

I agree with this, not so much on the BV side of things (personal choice that's all) but staying as close to spot as possible buying physical at the moment.

 

I have been tracing the price of silver (coins and bars) between many dealers extensively since Friday AM and it seems to me that once the refiners and mints cope with the backlog, the price of bullion coins will slowly come down (given a backdrop of steady silver spot price).

 

Staying close to spot seems obvious, but hard to do at the moment (physical), just be inventive! or play the waiting game hoping that pos will not rise dramatically in the short term

[Justin Thyme]

Now that it's beginning to look very unlikely Freddie & Fannie'll be able to raise funds in the market given their lack of credibility it looks like the US Treasury is going to have to dig into its wallet over the GSEs and treasuries are probably going to tank. Does anyone have any suggestions on a play on US Treasuries ? I seem to recall some comments a few years ago concerning the Ishares Lehman 20 yr ETF but does anyone have any other ideas ?

[drminky]

Now that it's beginning to look very unlikely Freddie & Fannie'll be able to raise funds in the market given their lack of credibility it looks like the US Treasury is going to have to dig into its wallet over the GSEs and treasuries are probably going to tank. Does anyone have any suggestions on a play on US Treasuries ? I seem to recall some comments a few years ago concerning the Ishares Lehman 20 yr ETF but does anyone have any other ideas ?

 

Shorting Treasuries? Sounds like a good idea fundamentally, but one risky play in the short term, considering this topsy-turvy funny-money world where dollar is rallying, not to mention the stock market looks set to tank bigtime! ..but the easiest way is perhaps through the ETFs

 

try the AMEX:TBT for example

Proshares Trust Ultrashort 20+ year Treasury Fund

 

http://www.proshares.com/funds/tbt.html

UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ProShares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Lehman Brothers 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index.

 

[Steve Netwriter]

This looks like a good website:

 

Trends I'm Watching

http://www.trendsimwatching.com/economics/index.html

 

 

 

Actually it looks very interesting

 

[drminky]

LOL Bloomberg still fishing for reasons the Euro is falling against the dollar.

 

Yesterday it was because of speculation the ECB would cut rates

Then this morning its reported 'German Producer-Price Inflation Reaches 27-Year High', so scratch that idea

Then its on speculation German investor confidence will hit record low

Then its reported 'German Investor Confidence Rises More Than Forecast', so scratch that idea

Now its apparently on speculation that German Growth is set to slow

 

And don't get me started on the 'speculation that the US will raise rates'

 

Why can't they just come clean and admit there's NO APPARENT REASON for anything like the UNPRECEDENTED rally in the dollar, which, given the negative real interest rates and the state of freddie and frannie is beyond any rhyme or reason!

 

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

...

Why can't they just come clean and admit there's NO APPARENT REASON for anything like the UNPRECEDENTED rally in the dollar, which, given the negative real interest rates and the state of freddie and frannie is beyond any rhyme or reason!

Maybe Trichet, Bernanke and Paulson would know.

[Steve Netwriter]

 

US bank 'to fail within months'

 

The global financial crisis is set to get worse, with a large US bank likely to collapse in the next few months, a former IMF chief economist has warned.

 

Kenneth Rogoff's comments came as shares in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sank on a report that the home lenders would, in effect, be nationalised.

 

Despite hopes that the US economy had turned the corner, Mr Rogoff claimed it was "not out of the woods".

 

"I would even go further to say 'the worst is to come'," he said.

 

"We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months," said Mr Rogoff, who held the IMF role between 2001 and 2004.

 

"We're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks."

 

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7569903.stm

[sossij]

I must go away more often. I come back and find gold and silver are having a summer sale - fantastic!

 

How is everyone, nobody worrying I hope?

[G0ldfinger]

...

How is everyone, nobody worrying I hope?

People seem to be mostly worried about WHERE to get the stuff when the want to buy some.

[sossij]

People seem to be mostly worried about WHERE to get the stuff when the want to buy some.

 

 

I noticed, just been catching up on these 'ere threads since I got back. Had no trouble with goldmoney and just now sent some £s over to BV. Any problems reported buying there?