Dispassion Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 I would be very surprised if gold was not used as an unnoficial currency in Zimbabwe I believe that the Rand is the popular unofficial currency in Zimbabwe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 What the hell just happened ?! :blink: US$ dropping fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 21, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 What the hell just happened ?! :blink: US$ dropping fast. Is it? Maybe the Russians are fed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 http://netdania.com/ChartApplet.asp?symbol=USDJPY 109.6 to 108.73 in the last 2 hours. Quite a sharp/large drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks, US dollar drop as oil tops $116 http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7741388 ? or Dollar Falls on U.S. Manufacturing Slump, Credit-Market Losses http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...p;refer=germany ``The dollar has been recently heavily overbought despite deteriorating U.S. economic fundamentals,'' said Keiichi Iguchi, a currency dealer in Tokyo at Resona Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's fourth-largest lender by market value. ``Weaker economic data could spark sharp dollar-selling'' as traders unwind their positions, he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 I can disprove that. I bought 1oz at $1000 QED. Is this a serious discussion board? Let me be patronisingly more clear: Much less physical gold was sold for jewelry at $1000 than was selling at $800. I can provide links if necessary, but this is not obscure or secret knowledge. Just check out Kitco's news links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 No such thing. No such as what? Speculative demand? Physical demand? Fundamental demand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 Since your asking Warpig to come up with some links to justify his statement, made in response to yours, could you be so kind as to return the favor and give some links to support your statement. Kitco is littered with such links. Here is one about India, for example Indian Gold Demand "It’s hard to over-egg the importance of Indian jewelry demand in the physical gold market. Between 2000 and 2007, gold jewelry sold in India accounted for one ounce-in-nine sold worldwide. One ounce in every five wound up as an Indian import (its domestic mines produce less than six tons per year), ready to be hung off young brides as 24-carat dowries or worked into bracelets and necklaces for the international market. The single-largest gold bullion consumer, India’s own final demand outweighed the next largest market — China — by almost 57%. But Chinese gold buyers have now caught up in 2008. Or so says the latest data from the World Gold Council. The switch isn’t only due to surging Chinese demand (up by 15% year-on-year between Jan. and April). It comes because Indian gold sales have collapsed — down 65% in the first six months of 2008 from ‘07 according to the Bombay Bullion Association — as consumers balk at record high prices:........................" They are buying again now at around $800. These are numbers that I can put into a spreadsheet and attempt some Fundamental Analysis. FA is quantitative. Unbacked claims of CB buying (although usually the excuse here is that CBs are selling too much, not buyng) can not be used in FA. The rise from $800 to $1000+ was down to ETFs and hedge funds going long, then it crashed as hedge funds over reached, and ETF demand shrunk. It stopped falling at $800 as what I call fundamental demand kicked in again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 Here's another about the global demand Physical gold demand falls to lowest level in 5 years (May 2008) "Data compiled independently for the World Gold Council by GFMS Ltd. shows tonnage demand for gold at 701 tonnes in the first quarter, down 16% on the same period last year - the lowest quarterly figure in last five years. According to the report, Gold Demand Trends, this fall was caused primarily by the sharp rise and unusually high volatility in the gold price, which briefly touched record levels above $1,000/oz in mid-March. Jewellery demand declined 21% year-on-year to 445.4 tonnes, the lowest quarterly level since the early 1990s. Net retail investment demand dropped by 35% to 72.7 tonnes in Q1. However, demand for gold ETFs was up 100% on Q1 2007 at 73 tonnes for the quarter - representing $2.2 billion in dollar terms." Even now, jewelry is much bigger consumer than speculators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 Cheers. Most bullish thing i have read in months! "We hold our one and three monthforecasts for gold at $850 and $900/oz respectively." Well, I'm a gold bull then! I can see $900 in 3 months. But I wouldn't call that very spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 No such as what? Speculative demand? Physical demand? Fundamental demand? Or are you saying that fundamental and speculative demand are the same thing???!!!! So UK house prices had good fundamentals at £200k, because there were speculators buying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCSucks Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 Is it? Maybe the Russians are fed up. I read somewhere that when the Russian forces entered Ossetia the Russian government also heavily sold off US government bonds and at a loss. Military and financial warfare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aSteve Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 Or are you saying that fundamental and speculative demand are the same thing???!!!! So UK house prices had good fundamentals at £200k, because there were speculators buying? They might be the same thing. It depends. If real interest rates turn negative, and default risk can be segregated - for example, using a family member, or through a limited company... then an inert asset with low maintenance costs has good fundamentals as an investment... otherwise not. The only complications are in: a ) Measuring inflation - this is probably best thought of as inflation in disposable "income" - though expanding debt is income in this context. b ) Measuring interest rates - which has been far more complicated after the deregulation of financial markets... means that we need to concern ourselves not only with our domestic rate - but also the rates of foreign currencies - adjusted for exchange rate risk. Sound fundamentals? Not if you think working class people deserve to own a debt-free home; possibly so if you think they're better off renting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 21, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 "We hold our one and three monthforecasts for gold at $850 and $900/oz respectively." Well, I'm a gold bull then! I can see $900 in 3 months. But I wouldn't call that very spectacular. There seems to be some confusion of 'physical' with 'fundamental' demand (I don't really know what the latter one is anyway). What I can agree on is that jewelery demand is physical demand. Differentiating something like 'fundamental' and 'speculative' etc. is extremely difficult or maybe even impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
confounded Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 Kitco is littered with such links. Here is one about India, for example Indian Gold Demand "It’s hard to over-egg the importance of Indian jewelry demand in the physical gold market. Wrongmove, Your points about the Jewellery trade and not underestimating it’s importance is extremely valid and I suspect there are not many gold bugs that would argue with you that in stable times when FIAT is strong gold has a price limitation, but when fear is involved gold take on a whole new shape/personality which I suspect why so much forum attention is being paid to it currently! I am a late owner of gold and silver and have been bitten very badly by the current slump, but do I think this is the end of the bull run? No chance. Nothing has changed to reduce it’s importance as a monetary trade, the fundamentals get stronger by the day which is why it was taken down in the way it has been. The day they aggressively raise rates in the US is the day I will become twitchy, and even then they would have had to have miraculously resolve the banking crisis. All they have done is turn off the warning light briefly in another attempt to stabilise the current crisis (this is in conjunction with supporting the banks and equity markets). They took it out just when it was going to challenge new highs and not only flash warning but blurt it out on the tanoy this time. This would have shown things are worsening instead of improving as they (we?) desperately need it to do to avert the very reasons people are buying gold. Gold/Silver for me is an assurance policy more than speculation, for the sum of money it is there to protect I would rather gold crash for solid fundamental reasons. If they keep successfully suppressing gold I am afraid I will be a looser on all accounts but there is little else I can see with the same long term fundamentals where you don’t have to be day trading to capitalise, but I come on here to be educated so I look forward to your reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 Well, I'm a gold bull then! I can see $900 in 3 months. But I wouldn't call that very spectacular. You don't think an annual equivalent growth of over 60% is all that good, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 The "jewelry brigade" are the only people who generate demand for physical. It was the speculative paper game that took gold up to above $1000 and back down again. Physical wasn't selling at those prices. The rest is speculation to me. No-one knows what the future holds, though a few vested interests like to pretend they do ($1200 by Christmas anyone?). Like all speculation, it may be right, or it may be wrong, but to describe it as "fundamentals" is to devalue that word and its meaning in the investment wprld. (All very much IMHO, of course) Are you retracting that statement then ? This is a serious forum. Are you a serious poster ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 You don't think an annual equivalent growth of over 60% is all that good, eh? No. Annualising the growth has no justification. To "invest" in gold, I first need to free up capital. This often involves costs. Then I have to pay dealers spread and fees. Then I lose interest, and have to pay for storage. I also have to take currency risk - isn't the dollar going to hell, according to most here? Then I have to sell, incurring more costs. So for me, the risk premium is insufficient. But each to their own, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 Are you retracting that statement then ? This is a serious forum. Are you a serious poster ? No I am not retracting that statement. I would also say that Uk houses are not selling now. Of course some are, but I think most people would know what I meant. I expanded my statement for those that are very literal minded in a subsequent post. Gold was not selling in sufficent quantity to support the price. I have added a few links to back this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 21, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 ... So for me, the risk premium is insufficient. But each to their own, of course. To me it's more like, why do people worry about VAT on silver, if the pric e has been $4 in 2000, and will possibly $100 in 2011? It just seems ridiculous. The important things is that you HAVE the stuff. It's getting late, taking into account all the writings on shortages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LauraB Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 Cheers. Most bullish thing i have read in months! just a quickie I learnt a lot yesterday... from you guys & particularly from the above GF. Muito Obrigada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enrieb Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 QUOTE (wrongmove @ Aug 21 2008, 07:26 AM) * The "jewelry brigade" are the only people who generate demand for physical. It was the speculative paper game that took gold up to above $1000 and back down again. Physical wasn't selling at those prices. Thanks for the links wrongmove, though you may not be retracting the statement you may have to change it as the links do not support the statement that Physical wasn't selling at those prices, it may be better the phrase it as Physical wasn't selling 'as much' at those prices. That may seem a bit pedantic, but I believe its necessary on a forum where the only thing we have with which to understand each others arguments are the words that are posted; unlike in normal conversation where a statement like that could be corrected in real time and not cause a fuss. A statement like 'physical wasn't selling at those prices' is simply not true as many people were buying physical, though admittedly based on your links not quite as many as before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 just a quickie I learnt a lot yesterday... from you guys & particularly from the above GF. Muito Obrigada Are you anywhere near Peniche ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 A nice run-up on NY open. Will the mini sell-off that's occurred the last two days kick in today as well? Let's see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LauraB Posted August 21, 2008 Report Share Posted August 21, 2008 Are you anywhere near Peniche ? No Steve SW Algarve About 15km from each coast by crow & well away from the concrete & golf Keep meaning to take the truck on a retro tour of our favourite Portugal....esp. central & north. You have a place in Peniche? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now