GOLD

[electroweak]

Let's say one were buying a gold bar. Volatility these days is quite concerning.

Does anyone know how far in advance one could lock a price with (say) ATS?

Of course, it takes a day or two to sell on BV, get cash transferred, collect from bank, and get to ATS.

I don't want to gamble on a 5% price upswing whilst i'm out of the market.

 

Anyone else done this? - or are you all numismatists ?

 

 

 

 

[azazel]

Let's say one were buying a gold bar. Volatility these days is quite concerning.

Does anyone know how far in advance one could lock a price with (say) ATS?

Of course, it takes a day or two to sell on BV, get cash transferred, collect from bank, and get to ATS.

I don't want to gamble on a 5% price upswing whilst i'm out of the market.

 

Anyone else done this? - or are you all numismatists ?

 

I dont think ATS will lock a price. Basically, when you pay for it is when the price is locked. Coininvestdirect however, you can place an order and then pay for it within a week, maybe more. Ive even placed multiple orders and then canceled the more expensive ones, to get the lowest price!

 

[frizzers]

I looove this projection for the $USD, just perfect. at 80 we would have oil at 105, gold at 730, silver at 10.80, eur/usd at 1.4300, and this would be the just a perfect bottom for commodities and everybody to buy in. I like this chart with triangle reversal, it would match with deflation ideas.

details: http://www.marketoracle.net/Article5932.html

 

Ker, I think this is more likely. See the simple trend line I have drawn

 

 

[Newbear]

I've been away and have not had time to catch up on the whole thread so forgive me if this has been mentioned before but...

 

Bob Hoye in a CW radio interview on 6th Feb suggested a gold price retracement to $750-775 (the bad news) followed by the good news (though I don't think he says when) - a new and powerful up-leg. He's also bullish on juniors when this occurs.

 

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/

 

I didn't blieve it at the time of first listening but in hindsight it appears powerfully argued.

 

He is, however, sceptical of the Puplava/Turk/Schiff hyper-inflation prognosis - arguing that the German-style hyperinflation will be prevented by the large bond and money markets.

 

Worth a listen.

[Catflap]

It's worth putting what VedantaTrader recently wrote over on HPC (Northern Ireland section) as he's a top poster - the link to the thread where this quote comes from:

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...=83754&st=0

 

 

Gold is a fantastic buy. I mean I m not a gold bug out of trendiness, or any bias to the yellow stuff. For 20 years gold was a terrible investment, and there will be a time again when it won’t be appropriate to buy gold, but to sell gold. Gold is incredibly cheap.

Most people seem to look at just the monetary hedge of using gold as an investment, and forget to study the supply and demand fundamentals. Like peak oil, peak gold exists also. Production for gold peaked out in 2004, and in that time demand has reached records, especially in India and China. Forget even the monetary inflation being bullish for gold, but the supply and demand fundamentals are extremely bullish for gold also. My price target for gold is anywhere between 4000 USD to 10,000USD. I know that it is a big range to target, but I have my reasons for that. We can discuss it in another post.

 

 

Perhaps someone can talk him into posting a bit here?

[Dispassion]

What do you use to define the dollar in absolute terms? The USDX is 57.6% the euro.

The USDX Components

 

I don't, over the timescales that we are interested in I don't believe that there is a good measure of the purchasing power of any currency apart from inflation figures.

I posted a similar chart a week or two ago, here. I'm just observing that the gold price has acted as a magnifier on the relative value of the Euro to the Dollar for a number of years and that the current movement in the Euro/Dollar and dollar index has been lead by Euro weakness instead of Dollar strength.

[njpurser]

kivi_envoy's assessment (makes some sense to me):

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread....66&page=414

Have you seen Petrov's videos on youtube? (gold in a crisis 1/2)

 

We are in for some serious dosh here my friend.

 

Vertical leg up at next crisis.

 

Cgnao was right, everything else was just smoke and mirrors.

 

My strategy will be to sell the spike, then wait for 2 months then buy back in.

 

Nick

 

 

[kernull]

Ker, I think this is more likely. See the simple trend line I have drawn

 

good point! this should be decided this week then, interesting.

[Steve Netwriter]

Have you seen Petrov's videos on youtube? (gold in a crisis 1/2)

 

We are in for some serious dosh here my friend.

 

Vertical leg up at next crisis.

 

Cgnao was right, everything else was just smoke and mirrors.

 

My strategy will be to sell the spike, then wait for 2 months then buy back in.

 

Nick

 

Found them !

 

Krassimir Petrov "Gold - Crisis Analysis" (part 1)

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=29...is%22&hl=en

Krassimir Petrov "Gold - Crisis Analysis" (part 2)

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2...is%22&hl=en

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Debt (Fiat) is Slavery; Gold is Freedom (10/17/2005)

http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrigue/blogs.html

 

We are getting towards the last mile (or 1.6 kilometer) of an experiment that began for the United States in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve. To put a complex story simple, the dollar was gradually moved away from an asset (gold) based currency to a faith (fiat) based promise to pay which is likely not to be fulfilled. The last strike was done in 1971 when the dollar was finally disconnected from any restraint except the whims, greed and fears of a cabal of individuals operating obscurely, answering to just a few. Not many realize that placing the control of a currency in the hands of governments and Central Banks, which are simply tools of the State, is a process that is the cause of much distress for the average citizen even if the promise is always "price stability". Instead of having money being subject to market forces reconciling the interests of savers and borrowers, money is created out of "thin air", by dictat (this is where I think the creationist theory applies the most), and pumped into the economy by truckloads (and soon by helicopters). Where the money ends is often difficult to predict, but the outcome is always the same; inflation.

.

.

.

Debt is the enemy of freedom.

 

[Dispassion]

Debt (Fiat) is Slavery; Gold is Freedom (10/17/2005)

http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrigue/blogs.html

 

We are getting towards the last mile (or 1.6 kilometer) of an experiment that began for the United States in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve. To put a complex story simple, the dollar was gradually moved away from an asset (gold) based currency to a faith (fiat) based promise to pay which is likely not to be fulfilled. The last strike was done in 1971 when the dollar was finally disconnected from any restraint except the whims, greed and fears of a cabal of individuals operating obscurely, answering to just a few. Not many realize that placing the control of a currency in the hands of governments and Central Banks, which are simply tools of the State, is a process that is the cause of much distress for the average citizen even if the promise is always "price stability". Instead of having money being subject to market forces reconciling the interests of savers and borrowers, money is created out of "thin air", by dictat (this is where I think the creationist theory applies the most), and pumped into the economy by truckloads (and soon by helicopters). Where the money ends is often difficult to predict, but the outcome is always the same; inflation.

.

.

.

Debt is the enemy of freedom.

 

Freedom, for who though?

 

If world currencies were to return to asset based currencies then how would governments prevent the increasing divide between wealthy families and poor families? Money supply does serve a purpose in free market economies, but is the problem with the money supply or the free markets themselves? Regardless of monetary system, freedom for people, in general, can only come from an equal distribution of productivity and the nature of using money to make money is the enemy of this. Proponents of free markets would argue that without personal investment, productivity cannot be planned to efficiently increase standards of living, but the fact that half of the world lives on 2 dollars a day indicates, to me, that analytical planning would struggle to do worse.

 

Here's some stats on freedom:

http://www.globalissues.org/article/26/pov...facts-and-stats

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2006/dec/0...ternationalnews

[bitbigt]

Freedom, for who though?

 

If world currencies were to return to asset based currencies then how would governments prevent the increasing divide between wealthy families and poor families? Money supply does serve a purpose in free market economies, but is the problem with the money supply or the free markets themselves? Regardless of monetary system, freedom for people, in general, can only come from an equal distribution of productivity and the nature of using money to make money is the enemy of this. Proponents of free markets would argue that without personal investment, productivity cannot be planned to efficiently increase standards of living, but the fact that half of the world lives on 2 dollars a day indicates, to me, that analytical planning would struggle to do worse.

 

Here's some stats on freedom:

http://www.globalissues.org/article/26/pov...facts-and-stats

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2006/dec/0...ternationalnews

In my view, we can only go to a non-fiat (e.g., gold backed) currency if all borrowing is outlawed! ...that's why it won't ever happen, and it also lies behind it failing last century

 

The basic logic behind this is simple:

Ban borrowing = no increase money supply and no inflation, so the currency can be locked to something that doesn't change in amount

Allow borrowing = money supply will inexorably increase and inflation will exist, so eventually disconnecting the currency (in ratio terms) from any substance that doesn't change in amount

 

But some good things about not allowing borrowing (if it were possible):

- you could buy houses with about 8 years of current mortgage payments

- the rich-poor wealth gap would reduce

- society/economies would grow far slower, perhaps matching the planets ability to cope with us human parasites

- we could get rid of CBs, and bring some honesty and transparrency back into the system

[FLASH]

Just read this on Bloomberg,Not a good sign.

 

Gold Bulls `Running for Cover' Signal Price Drop: Chart of Day

 

By Millie Munshi

 

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Gold, down 21 percent from a record $1,033.90 an ounce in March, may be headed down after open interest in New York futures contracts for the precious metal plunged to the lowest level in 11 months.

 

The CHART OF THE DAY shows open interest, or the total number of contracts yet to be closed, liquidated or delivered. This reached 365,611 on Aug. 12, down 26 percent from a four- month high on July 18 and the lowest since Sept. 10. Open interest on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange reached 593,953 on Jan. 15 -- the highest since at least 1994 -- before gold rallied another 15 percent to a record on March 17.

 

``Open interest in gold is down sharply and it just shows you people are running for cover from this market right now,'' said Ron Goodis, the futures-trading director at Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey. ``No one wants to get into gold now.''

 

Gold plunged 8.4 percent last week, the biggest drop in 25 years. Gold for December closed yesterday at $816.80 an ounce.

 

Commercial users of the metal, including investors or mining companies, also have reduced their bets on price gains to the lowest since September. Net-long positions fell by 20 percent from a week earlier to 130,660 contracts on Aug. 15, the biggest drop and the lowest level since September.

 

``An outflow of passive and active investment money'' means ``it is hard to be positive about the out for precious metals over the next month or so,'' John Reade, the head of UB AG metals strategy in London, said in a report on Aug. 18

 

[Steve Netwriter]

I've just done a Google of "silver shortage"

 

http://news.google.com/news?ned=us&hl=...amp;btnG=Search

 

:blink:

 

[Steve Netwriter]

You do get this one !!!

 

Make $400,000/year on your silver!

http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1219144945.php

 

Now isn't that interesting !

 

[Bobsta]

Now isn't that interesting !

Yeah, read it yesterday.

 

Quite stunned that Jason makes $400,000 a year purely on subscriptions to his tipster service.

 

If I made $400k/yr just for letting people know what stocks I'd bought I reckon I could afford to be quite speculative!

[ologhai]

In my view, we can only go to a non-fiat (e.g., gold backed) currency if all borrowing is outlawed! ...that's why it won't ever happen, and it also lies behind it failing last century

 

The basic logic behind this is simple:

Ban borrowing = no increase money supply and no inflation, so the currency can be locked to something that doesn't change in amount

Allow borrowing = money supply will inexorably increase and inflation will exist, so eventually disconnecting the currency (in ratio terms) from any substance that doesn't change in amount

 

Or have 0% inflation and allow borrowing:

 

No one but 'the government' can lend money with interest. Both the right to borrow money and the risk assessment criteria used to determine whether a loan application should be successful are constitutional, i.e. individual governments can't change them on a whim.

 

The capital of a loan is created at the time that the loan is taken out (pretty much as it is now), then destroyed as it's repaid (pretty much as it isn't now!).

 

The interest paid on loans is used to offset tax. Should the interest paid exceed tax requirements, the surplus can either be put aside for a 'national emergency' or repaid to the public. The specifics of how the loan interest is spent is what might differentiate one government from another.

 

Commercial banks would simply become a safe place to store your money (along with facilities to allow you to spend it without having to carry cash around if you didn't want to). Of course, they would charge a fee for such a service and the associated facilities.

 

As bank accounts would become custodial affairs (rather like allocated gold accounts or safety deposit boxes), a bank going bust wouldn't hurt a customer especially (other than being an inconvenience) because a customer's money would always really be theirs simply to be returned under such circumstances.

 

... But what do I know?

[bitbigt]

Or have 0% inflation and allow borrowing

I suspect this is not possble, simply because:

borrowing always produces a money supply increase which always produces inflation

 

[ologhai]

I suspect this is not possble, simply because:

borrowing always produces a money supply increase which always produces inflation

 

As per my post (did you read it? ), surely this wouldn't happen if the loan capital was destroyed as it was repaid -- to counterbalance the money creation when the load was taken out.

[G0ldfinger]

Yeah, read it yesterday.

 

Quite stunned that Jason makes $400,000 a year purely on subscriptions to his tipster service.

...

Read again. He doesn't. He somewhere states on his webpage he can't even live off it. And living is cheap in the US.

[dom]

Freedom, for who though?

Utter shit isn't it.

 

Gold currency was the mechanism which evolved into the current debt money economy that is destroying the world today.

 

Government should supply the money (fiat) and banks be restricted to 100% reserves.

[Atoning Unifex]

Utter shit isn't it.

 

Gold currency was the mechanism which evolved into the current debt money economy that is destroying the world today.

 

Government should supply the money (fiat) and banks be restricted to 100% reserves.

 

goverment eh ? that is nice, so humans are in charge of the money supply then, yeah ? good luck with that mate.

 

[PricedOutNative]

Gold Bulls `Running for Cover

 

``No one wants to get into gold now.''

 

Gold plunged 8.4 percent last week, the biggest drop in 25 years. Gold for December closed yesterday at $816.80 an ounce.

 

Sometimes you have to accept you've made a bad choice and sell before gold hits under $500.

I heard some economist on R4 talking about the green shoots of recovery appearing and that we should cheer up as the downturn is nearly over, seems nonsense to me but I'm not trained in this area...

 

[Bobsta]

Read again. He doesn't. He somewhere states on his webpage he can't even live off it. And living is cheap in the US.

He does say in the article

On the other hand, the entire silverstockreport.com barely brings in $400,000/year in subscriptions, so this is something for me to seriously consider.

 

By "barely brings in" I take this to mean it brings in around $350,000-$400,000/yr. But anyway, we digress.

[LauraB]

Gold Bulls `Running for Cover

 

Sometimes you have to accept you've made a bad choice and sell before gold hits under $500

 

Would suit me fine.

 

 

Guys, help me out here please.

 

A lower end six figs (Euros) has just arrived in our BV account.

 

Of course we are itching (not) to commit short-term economic suicide.

 

It really does look wise to do nothing for a while, monitor closely, (& forget the interest loss).

 

You agree?