GOLD

[Pixel8r]

But the VAT you payed is money lost to you (and gone to the tax man). The dealer when buying back does not pay you back the VAT.

 

Unless you buy it through a VAT registered company and provide a VAT receipt with the sale.

[Mr Pipples]

James Turks latest: http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php

 

Re. Physical/Paper - demand/supply/price

 

I'm seriously considering going 100% silver right (for) now...

[azazel]

No way.

 

I'm not leveraged - so a bit like a house, you only lose IF & WHEN you sell.

 

Has the recent drop been unnerving, you bet, more than I could have possibly imagined - stomach renchingly sick in fact. I tend to agree with Jim Sinclair that if you read & watch too much on this ride you'll send yourself mad! This is a long game, not a short game. I really admire those folk who have the time and skill to making money out of trading the PM's, but the latter is not for me - I surely would be washed out in a short time.

 

The recent drop actually prompted me to buy more @ $810 just before the last drop.

 

Am I worried - no not really - I have faith. I had faith when I got out of BTL Q1 2004 (only small time - 2 x properties) - but I did ok. At the time people said I was mad to sell at that point in time. I was doing my research - they were watching Location, Location, Location. I was happy with the profit I had made and was happy to sit tight until I found something else. Properties near me did not really move much after the end of 2004, so yes perhaps I lost a bit, but I'm happy with my timing. As I've said on here before my only regret is not getting into gold early enough, 2004 would have been ideal, but with hindsight investment we'd all be kickin back in the caribbean

 

I've taken all my financial investment/management into my own hands. Most of the IFA's out there don't have a clue - they just have a standard bag of low/medium and high risk portfolios for you - and they cream off an easy % for doing nothing. If I lose any money now - the buck (or Turdling as GF puts it) stops with me.

 

If ultimately I had to take a loss - then so be it - will just have to work harder to make up the deficit - nobody ever got anywhere without a calculated risk. In fact I think gold is helping me become less risk averse - will have to change my name!!!

 

Thanks for your heart felt reply. I know its heart felt as I feel the same. Yes I'm gutted about the fall in gold price. But I'm still confident that it was the right thing to do. With hind sight, I would have bought more on weakness and traded on BV about a 1/3. We found a new website called http://www.britishbulls.com/StockPage.asp?...cials&TYP=S and I plan to trade my BV gold using their directions and hopefully make a profit. I know I should sell on the rhino horns and buy the fishing lines but i don't have the balls! I STR 2007/07 and may buy back in a year but just a humble house that I can do up and add value too and eventually let it. Anyway, its good to know others that are in a simmilar situation to myself. Cheers!!

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

But having said that, your buy and sell examples aren't very comparable.

 

 

How so?

 

The only product difference is the year of the coins

 

The point I'm trying to make (perhaps not very well) is that if I hypothetically bought today using a dealer and sold today using ebay, the difference the VAT makes is neglible

[wren]

Unless you buy it through a VAT registered company and provide a VAT receipt with the sale.

Would you clarify how this works? So you own a VAT-registered company, say, and make the purchase (including VAT?), then when you sell it back, on providing the VAT receipt you are refunded the VAT?

 

I'm only guessing, not having any experience of it.

 

[wren]

How so?

 

The only product difference is the year of the coins

 

The point I'm trying to make (perhaps not very well) is that if I hypothetically bought today using a dealer and sold today using ebay, the difference the VAT makes is neglible

Firstly, I don't use eBay myself so I'm not familiar with the possible sentiment/behavioural changes there. I can accept that your example is true today but would that generally be the case year in, year out? I don't know.

 

What I mean is that a buy-sell spread from one bullion dealer provides a more direct measure of what one can reasonably expect in the longer run (and, of course, their own spread can change).

 

Arbitrage between different marketplaces may exist but may fluctuate in the long run, and possibly in unpredictable and unfavourable ways.

[notanewmember]

Dont know if anyones following Rhodium

 

 

 

 

Breaking supports here, Platinum, Palladium also doing the same. Got to be the most interesting developments todate.

 

All eyes on OIL, the commodity leader. Just about resting on its 200 MA support

[Steve Netwriter]

James Turks latest: http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php

 

Re. Physical/Paper - demand/supply/price

 

I'm seriously considering going 100% silver right (for) now...

 

That is interesting:

 

A Fabrication Bottleneck or Something More

http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary/2008-08-17.html

 

Incidentally, though GoldMoney - like many other companies - had a record week, GoldMoney has not experienced any shortages of metal because we transact only in large bars, namely, those that meet the standards of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). These bars come into the market daily from refiners and existing stocks, such as those held by central banks. But the shortage of fabricated product has caused me to ponder whether a shortage of LBMA-sized bars might also develop at these low prices. In other words, could gold go into backwardation, meaning the spot month (i.e., physical metal) trades at a premium to future months (i.e., paper promises to pay metal in the future)? A backwardation would be unthinkable in normal times, but these are not normal times.

.....

Central banks do not transact in small bars and their coin transactions are inconsequential compared to the size of the market. So the market for fabricated product is relatively free from government influence. But central banks of course exert a dominant influence on the market for LBMA-sized bars by using their existing gold stocks, and they can keep the spot price for gold (which is determined by the buying/selling of LBMA-sized bars) artificially low by dishoarding gold from their vaults.

 

So my thought is that if gold does not climb back above at least $900 quickly, a shortage of LBMA-sized bars will develop unless central banks allow their vaults to be cleaned out, much like Ft. Knox was drained in the weeks leading up to the 2-tiered London gold price created in March 1968, with an official price at $35 per ounce and a free-market price well above that level. If central banks allow their vaults to be cleaned out at these current low prices, then look for some contrived government imposed dictum on the gold market, just like they did in March 1968. Price controls would be one possible dictum.

[notanewmember]

 

George Milling-Stanley - World Gold Council director - hes buying on the dips

 

 

Worth a watch.

 

Video

 

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/b...bctid1733229607

[frizzers]

Dont know if anyones following Rhodium

 

 

 

 

Breaking supports here, Platinum, Palladium also doing the same. Got to be the most interesting developments todate.

 

All eyes on OIL, the commodity leader. Just about resting on its 200 MA support

 

Great observation. Rhodium was the king of PMs

[electroweak]

Great observation. Rhodium was the king of PMs

but also highly dependent on auto industry; not applicable to gold, imo.

[FLASH]

silver back up to $13 lets hope it stay there.

[G0ldfinger]

Very much time for an update..

 

BV stats:

Jan 1st:

London New York Zurich

1,119.309 100.759 3,686.673

 

Update, Jan 17th:

London New York Zurich Dollars Euros Pounds

1,193.979 100.759 3,841.605 9,259,658.19 3,326,113.76 8,296,953.72

 

...

June 18th:

London New York Zurich Dollars Euros Pounds

1,754.442 138.263 5,647.962 7,951,632.60 3,126,505.00 5,920,794.81

 

 

And now:

August 15th:

London New York Zurich Dollars Euros Pounds

1,916.722 163.207 6,321.627 7,415,656.64 3,837,764.87 6,780,169.82

so ~10% more gold in London, +20% in NY, and +15% in Zurich.

USD and GBP stocks up, EURO halved.

Quite impressive statistics.

[G0ldfinger]

but also highly dependent on auto industry; not applicable to gold, imo.

Rhodium and the whole Platinum metals group are special cases IMO. I think it will be a good idea to buy some of these metals when they show weakness over depression/oil crisis related problems. They'e industrial key metals and will IMO do very well once the bottom of the depression has been reached. Depending on inflation pressures, they might do well before that, but maybe not as well as gold & silver.

[wren]

Time for the theme tune I think (I get knocked down but I get up again):

 

And for anybody who missed it, the Krugerrand song.

 

Always makes me laugh, such excellent bad taste.

[Steve Netwriter]

Listen:

 

Asteri's Goldman Says Credit Crisis `Only Now Beginning'

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&...HEscWJQs1UM.asf

 

The credit crisis has not yet arrived, because major banks are contractually obligated to provide lines of credit to companies that are busy drawing those lines down. The credit crisis erupts when those loans are due to be renewed. He claims that banks do not have the balance sheets they need to extend that credit, and, therefore, the worst effects remain in front of us.  

 

Register with Chris to read the article this quote came from:

 

http://www.chrismartenson.com/credit-crisi...-just-beginning

 

[drbubb]

Gold up $17 to $803

 

First FULL trading day since the Full Moon

[Bobsta]

silver back up to $13 lets hope it stay there.

$13.30 now and gold over $800 ($803).

 

I just can't help but think it will dip back below though.

[Steve Netwriter]

How Low Will Gold Go?

Commodities / Gold & Silver Aug 17, 2008 - 02:43 PM

 

By: Alex_Wallenwein

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5905.html

 

To keep a potentially endless article very short, the answer to the question of "how low will gold go?" is a thundering "IT DOESN'T MATTER. GO GET YOURSELF SOME - NOW! "

 

It absolutely matters not how low the price goes. You are lucky if you can find any gold or silver at these prices, so if you can find some, buy it. The lower it goes, the better for you.

 

Now, since large bars are still available, would it not make sense to buy some while they are, at these incredible i-prices? I think it would.

 

Sooner or later, even the mutual fund managers who buy and sell contracts instead of storing metal will figure this out. Until then, happy buying!

 

[romans holiday]

Listen:

 

Asteri's Goldman Says Credit Crisis `Only Now Beginning'

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&...HEscWJQs1UM.asf

 

Enjoyed listening to this guy... reminded me of John Lithgow from "Third Rock from the Sun"; “Mr market is going to have to kick their [consumers] teeth down their throat”. Thinking of which, they could make a great episode on the shennanigans of the stock markets from an alien perspective.

 

Interesting point he made about hedge funds being forced to make the same trades leading to huge intra-month volatility. Hedge funds the being major source of volatility and become the major source of risk

 

 

Thought he was spot on with the coming credit crisis.

 

 

“Private equity could do very well in this business [shorting the financials]… if you are willing to take massive intra-month volatility” Gosh, he could have just as well been talking about going long gold [the anti dollar].

[Gatesy]

Grrrrr. Head hurts now.

 

Panic Selling in Gold: What's Next?

 

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/18537

The panic selling in gold and mining shares has accelerated and the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is the clearest example of how sharp the selloff has been, down more than 2.5% midd-day as I write. On Minyanville's Buzz and Banter on July 24, I noted the potential head and shoulders pattern that was forming on the weekly chart:

 

Buzz and Banter, July 24:

 

Here's a weekly chart of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) showing a deferred potential TD-Sequential 13 sell signal.

 

 

Click to enlarge

 

As well, we could be seeing a potential head and shoulders pattern form. A key to identification would be neckline violation on expanding volume. The right shoulder has already recorded a weekly volume bar that was greater than the left shoulder volume bar peak, and that increases the probability of the formation completing in my interpretation. I should also note that the GDX has given a double bottom point and figure sell signal (1x3 chart) and violated a trendline from the May lows.

 

Now that this has transpired, the question is: What's Next?

 

The GDX has blown through another retracement level that could have served as a potential stopping point. This is an important session today. A close below 34.43 would increase the probability that the selloff is not done and note we still have an unfulfilled DeMark TD-Sequential buy countdown in place, this bar currently on 8 of a potential 13. A close above that level and next week the ~33 area may provide a trading point for longs as the fulfillment of the downside count from the head and shoulders.

 

As for gold, I would like to be more positive on the metal itself, but I believe this selling is related to a buildup of longer-term deflationary pressures in the credit markets that will dwarf the inflationary mask of (formerly surging) food and energy costs.

 

When debt and leverage are this excessive, cyclical inflation simply accelerates the deflationary outcome and makes the unwind more severe. Watching the Consumer Price Index is like driving over a cliff with your eye on the rear view mirror. Deflationary pressures will cause bids to evaporate and disappear as financial assets that must be sold to repair balance sheets and destroy debt overwhelm the capital available to compete for them.

 

Few see this coming because the leveraging of debt in our economy simply to get it to work has been so massive, so all-encompassing, that the vast majority of market participants have forgotten what normalcy is.

 

I most certainly believe gold will eventually be an asset to own in coming years. However, at the onset of deflation, gold will be sold indiscriminately - like all assets - to pay down debt and repair balance sheets.

 

The initial asset price inflation and central bank reflation efforts that made gold seem attractive during the building of the asset price bubble sow the seeds of the selloff as speculators attracted to the metal simply as a detached, non-fundamental momentum play will need to unwind their leveraged bets. Weak holders will be shaken out and ultimately replaced by those seeking a store of value. That is why the selloff won't make sense on a fundamental basis.

 

I show on the metal itself DeMark exhaustion sell signals on the long-term quarterly and monthly charts. But, the only people that should really be concerned about whether gold is going up or down right now - other than in the macro sense - are those very people who will likely need to sell and therefore be resonsible for it overshooting on the downside. I expect in the next few years for gold to retrace part of its long-term move, perhaps coming below 600 and, in the worst case, possibly even coming below 500. A 50% retracement of this major bull move would be about 458. But that doesn't change the long-term, secular bull market for gold.

 

The author (a former racehorse tipster and philosophy graduate !) seems to think deleveraging will neutralise and overpower inflationary pressures. Anyone like to comment on that?

[romans holiday]

Grrrrr. Head hurts now.

 

Panic Selling in Gold: What's Next?

 

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/18537

 

 

The author (a former racehorse tipster and philosophy graduate !) seems to think deleveraging will neutralise and overpower inflationary pressures. Anyone like to comment on that?

 

Sounds right to me. It helps to think of the markets as a ship of fools; first everyone lurches to one side, and a certain class of prices soar, then they all lurch the other way, and those same prices drop... repeat this process ad nauseum. I imagine this will sometimes reflect swings where the market will suffer from various contagions; first inflation pyschology then deflation pyschology.

 

Of course, finally reality will bite and fundamentals will win out [which the author recognizes]... but this is a long term play.

 

[bitbigt]

Grrrrr. Head hurts now.

Panic Selling in Gold: What's Next?

The author (a former racehorse tipster and philosophy graduate !) seems to think deleveraging will neutralise and overpower inflationary pressures. Anyone like to comment on that?

I have commented extensively, explaining i) there is a widespread lack of appreciation about the way money supply and its effects work, and ii) there is a current over-focus upon deflation because people are right now 'feeling the pinch' of the credit crunch (this 'tipster' epitomises that).

 

So to avoid being boring and repetitive, I'll make it brief:

 

- The massive increase in money from the last decade has not gone away, its just gone to Asia. That's causing massive out of control inflation there which will flow back to us

[EDIT]- The Western slowdown will help take some of the inflationary pressure out of Asia, and so allow them to keep going with high inflation without completely overheating

- In the West we may not be taking on so many new personal loans now, but the governments are more than making up the difference as they monetize the bad banks etc (M3 is at 15%, even after 1 year of US credit crunch and slowdown ...fact!)

- All the excess money we borrowed has been given to Johnny Foreigner in return for plastic crap, and 90% of the new government loans are also to Johnny Foreigner - meaning that our future growth is owed to someone else and so Sterling is going to weaken dramatically long term

- Shorter term, we're 1 year behind the US, and so a big and sudden currency fall is yet to come for Sterling (has just started to unfold) [i.e., very inflationary]

 

The main point to note: Western governments will not let deflation take over - they've said exactly that, and that they'll pump new money in to whatever degree is necessary to avoid it. They have bigger debt problems that anyone, and they can, will and do monetize it (as this is their only possible way of clearing that debt).

 

So just now we're seeing the first deflationary smoke coming out of the inflationary fire and masking it from sight. But behind that smoke the government are pouring petrol on the flames. Don't just watch the smoke - its part of burning process and more easy to see, but not the heart of the problem.

[romans holiday]

Personally, I do not buy into the simplistic argument that inflation will be good for gold and deflation will be bad for gold. We are looking at the mother of all monetary crises and gold will be good not for its nominal price [which would relate to inflation or deflation] but due to the fact that it is money and a good store of value. Dollar/pound prices are a momentary obsession and are irrelevant in the larger long term picture of things.

[bitbigt]

Personally, I do not buy into the simplistic argument that inflation will be good for gold and deflation will be bad for gold. We are looking at the mother of all monetary crises and gold will be good not for its nominal price [which would relate to inflation or deflation] but due to the fact that it is money and a good store of value. Dollar/pound prices are a momentary obsession and are irrelevant in the larger long term picture of things.

...do you, however, buy into the argument that inflation will be good for gold

...do you, however, agree that a weaker pound does stoke up inflation

 

More generally, I think agree with your general thrust if what you're saying is that, since all fiat currencies will become worth less (whether or not they are eventually worthless) then it will hard to notice that unfolding devaluation as none of them will provide a reference point to 'see' those falls against

 

That ultimate reference will be the cost of 'stuff' that does not depend upon credit (e.g., food, gold, energy, rather than house prices, stock markets). And stuff going up vs currencies is inflation.