GOLD

[kernull]

Yep. This is what I keep thinking. I buy in euros, so I also follow the euro price closely. GBP etc. are probably similar.

 

I still don't get, why did gold price drop in euros? if euros devaluated against dollars, gold in euros should be gonig up, it takes more euros to buy gold now. this 'misunderstanding' should be fixed by the market soon IMHO

[Silent reader]

This from the BBC

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7563644.stm

 

As economists see improved prospects for the US economy, the dollar becomes more attractive as an investment.

 

And as the dollar becomes more attractive, particularly in times of crisis, gold has lost its lustre, as have other precious metals.

 

 

 

 

 

I'm off to the Nuthouse.......... I think it's time for my 6 monthly check up

 

[GenghisKhan]

Why would anyone have silver (or gold) on margin? You'd have to be insane.

 

First post on this great site.

 

I actually hold LPMT which is an ETC that is long and leveraged at x2. I agree that the preference would be to hold physical but here is my thought.

 

I bought LPMT within an ISA and outside of the ISA I hold an equivalent amount of NS&I Index Linked Savings certificates. I have no CGT to pay (I know Sovereigns and Britannias don't have CGT but they do have a wide buy/sell spread) if I ever sell. I also get the equivalent of a non-leveraged return from the gold/silver plus whatever I get from NS&I.

 

The risk is if LPMT halves in value in a day I lose all the LPMT value. However if I owned the physical I've also lost half the value.

 

I'm sure I'm missing something but it's all part of a balanced strategy anyway.

[Compounded]

This is ugly, ugly, ugly. My sympathies to anyone who has silver on margin. Virtually every intermediate support level has gone. If we do not hold here, I believe we will see 730 very quickly. If it wasn't August I would be declaring the bull market over.

 

I am surprised you are worried, Krassimir in one of his talks said 25% corrections are common in a gold bull market "everyone gets a heart attack but dont worry it's normal for gold", I looked at the graphs and its very easy to see the crashes in the 70's and recently (perhaps the volitility is a confirmation of the bull - as it certainly was volatile in the 70's)

 

There was a 50% correction in the 70's bull IIRC - think of that £450 kruger being devalued to £225

 

 

That's the spirit! I only buy physical and I'll bet that, come morning in New York, I will not be able to buy at these levels.

 

 

Great forum, think I will settle in here quite nicely!

 

Welcome, I like it here too.

 

 

This is going to be interesting to watch.

 

If this really is the end of the bull, this thread could be a study in cognitive dissonance as denial as people downgrade their previous lowest expectations and keep predicting an upswing.

 

However as a relatively dispassionate observer, my observation would be this. What we are seeing is a reminder of how shockingly turbulent gold can be (maybe because of interventions, but more likely because of the size of the market and the degree to which sentiment swings it). I've seen a graph here where an upswing in gold through the autumn is extremely common. And I believe there is going to be plenty more scary financial and international news this autumn. So an upswing still feels more likely to me than not.

 

My worry would be the degree to which deflationary forces are starting to drag money available for all investment down. Gold may turn out to be some kind of insurance simply because its value doesn't collapse to quite the same degree as other popular options such as shares and property. People are going to lose a lot of money from bad property investments and companies are going to collapse*. Gold might just bumble along in this region, not doing quite what you'd hoped but still protecting your wealth better than some alternatives.

 

Good luck to those of you holding anyhow. Must be a slightly unnerving period, but hopefully you like rollercoasters, and the next uphill stretch might be close.

 

* FWIW - I don't have huge amounts of money and most of mine is in my property - right now that isn't working out so great either as I haven't been able to remortgage and that is making life a little tough, so I hope I won't be showing any schadenfraude if gold has its own problems.

 

I cannot often follow the convoluted arguements on currency - but believe a financial crisis of mega proportions is possible.

 

Still bloody glad i have been frugal and have no debt - I am 49 so mortgage free is no big acheivement

 

 

I am very worried about deflation too. Unfortunately, I have not so much time to spend on it, since I am busy working more so that I can keep up with the price increase by 35% from British Gas and the increased food prices, lunch has gotten 15-20% more expensive too recently. But yes, other than that, extremely worried about deflation.

 

I have just done my books - costs well up - guess I will have to increase prices.

 

 

think from memory FP said Gold was going to $750 a few months ago - good call

 

FP quite pro gold IIRC, though never flaunted it on the gold thread.

 

I find that sulking helps. Whaddaya gonna do? Sell PM holdings? And buy what exactly? Cash is gash. Stocks have the pox. Bonds are, uh, erm... one minute, for blondes. Mortar 'n' bricks are for <censored>. Fudge it all, might as well hold for the inevitable bounce. And then hold some more. And until then, I'm gonna keep sulk sulking and write a very stiff letter to the Mogambo Guru. 100% Guaranteed.

 

Exactly - WTF else do you use as a savings vehicle now?

 

 

 

Nice graph.

 

Indeed. He did say this and he also said that gold would go much higher ($2000+ I think he said)

 

Are we confident the gold bull is still going or is that the end of it?

 

If you could convince me it was the end of it, it would follow that our economy is sound - I think I would like that especially as I have children.

[marmite]

More gold chat/bashing over at HPC. Strange that the thread has not been moved yet

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=84603

 

The original poster Injin, seems like a quite a sharp guy/girl. I dont always agree with him/her but they have some interesting thoughts at times. Unfortunatly it has given a podium for the usual gold bashing

 

When the gold bugs on here were ramping a few months ago saying "The price will go to the moon now" I saw it as a sign to do the exact opposite - 'wake up' moment.

 

Blahhhhh, blahhhhh bulls**t.........wont make you feel any better but might make you all smille

 

I have done a lot of reading over the past week and the thing that sticks in my mind most...........from jsmineset.com

 

The price of gold is already looking beyond the oil and food spike of early to mid 2008 (a lagging indicator of loose money two to three years ago) to the much more serious matter of debt-deflation that lies ahead

 

Do your stocks and cash feel safe ??? Be happy that you hold a tangible

 

 

[kernull]

Well this looks like another Ugly Friday for gold.

 

oil holded good, but I don't like euro, looks like it is suspended in the air , the sooner it touches 1.4300 , better for commodities, i think thats when dollar might reverse

 

[wren]

In the last 12 hours I notice http://www.coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a=10&id=160 is offering much less in the way of silver coins or silver bars. They've sold out quickly.

Blimey. Just had a quick look and most of the regular stuff is absent.

 

I can't buy silver from them till next year. VAT quota was filled and no shipping to Finland.

 

[LauraB]

open interest for december 08 contract increased to 228,818 since august, indicating a lot of shorts & signaling lower prices for gold in december:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C8

 

So nothing to see until early 2009.

 

I'll pull all that Euro pile sitting waiting in BV & place it back in a neat little thing called a savings account

 

Then watch gold rocket .... Grrrrrr

 

[G0ldfinger]

So nothing to see until early 2009.

 

I'll pull all that Euro pile sitting waiting in BV & place it back in a neat little thing called a savings account

 

Then watch gold rocket .... Grrrrrr

You have the greatest pull-back since $1,000, and you still would not start buying at these levels?

When WOULD you buy? $700, $600, or $500?

 

The market not always moves in the direction the forwards predict.

[G0ldfinger]

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread....555#post1239555

I think all of those target prices and time frames are on the mark. The 1979 analogy was off; this is not it, if we mean an approaching blowoff. The fundamentals drag out for several years. The adjustable mortgage re-set problem peaks in 2011. The medicare deficit starts to blow up over the next two years. The social security deficit starts to blow up middle of next decade. Any opportunities to move to energy alternatives will take another five years to reach fruition.

 

The financial system has MASSIVE inertia; no matter how bad you think the fundamentals are, the whole thing has to play out slowly, likely turning the direction of a large ship. A gold peak occurring 2013-2015 makes the most sense, and it is consistent with the typical duration of a bull cycle.

 

Couldn't agree more. This things needs time.

[G0ldfinger]

Another very good post:

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=16380

 

As Artie Johnson would have said on Rowen and Martins laugh in.

 

That at least establishes the bonafides that I have been watching gold and silver through SEVERAL bull markets.

 

Late last year or early this one while everyone kept comparing this bull to 1979 I had said that it had more of a 1970-1974 feel to it. Just hope it doesn't correct as far as it did then or we will see 600. Then it would be four years until 3600.

 

Dec 74 183.85

Aug 76 109.93

Down %40

 

Aug 76 109.93

Jan 80 675.30

Up %614

 

This would correlate with:

 

Mar 2008 976.44

Sep 2010 585.86

Feb 2014 3596.57

 

(See bottom of post for caution.)

 

The fundamentals are different here. Back then the USD had to strive against a strong Mark. This is not the case with the Euro. The Euro is a unified currency supported by disparate economies. That is:

 

1. Why it has no ability to handle short term economic upheavals

2. Why it won't exist in ten or twenty years.

 

Imagine the difficulty of establishing an overall economic policy when Spain has wage levels tied in by law to inflation and Germany doesn't. One country experiences wage price spirals by design while another is trying to fight it. The Euro will work fine when the world is in a bull market but is not adaptive enough in the present climate. This is why we see the Euro falling against the Dollar today. Everyone in Europe is convinced a general world recession is on its way and the dollar will be able to better handle it then the Euro (piece of political invention) the Pound (England follows us) or the Yuan (but look out in ten years)

 

Where does this leave Gold?

 

What happens when Freddie Mae and Fanny Mac go under next year and GM the year after.

What happens when the budget deficit is underfinanced by foreign central banks?

 

What happens if the Euro is disolved and we have to compete against the Mark again?

 

Why did the ECU as well as England decide to overinflate housing prices? This was not just an American situation these last few years. Are they just sheepies or do they have to follow our economy? And when we walk off of the inevitable cliff?

 

Verrry Interesting...

 

Its easy to pick on the US deficit, but here's a thought. Germany absorbed an entire country in 1989 none of whom had paid into their social programs. these 'baby boomers' also will begin to retire. How is Germany handleing this? Its got to be a lot worse than our situation. Just an idle thought I've wondered about over the years.

 

I agree with Ivanovitch on one thing. If you are going to day trade or make your money off weekly buy and sells then the volatility in the equity markets or currencies is where to be. Great gain requires great risk. If it was safe it wouldn't pay.

 

Gold on the other hand is boring. It sits there, looks nice, and just steadily increases in value over time.

 

Where is all this going?

 

Where ever Gold goes when:

 

1. Liquidity for the banking system is difficult to find for the next few years.

2. Consumer spending in Europe and America is down for the next twenty months.

3. 100 banks fail in the next year as well as GM

4. The FDIC needs to get recapitalized by tax dollars.

5. City bonds become increasingly difficult to finance.

6. Taxes and inflation go up, up, and up.

 

This entire world economic system scares the hell out of me right now.

 

I will take a 50% hit in gold right now just so I will know that I have something in five years.

 

Oh yeah - and to Ivanovitch

 

Tell me any investment you want to put up against Gold for the next year.

USD? Euro? FM? GM? Citigroup? McDonald? Treasuries?

 

Put it down here and now so we can see if you know what your talking about.

So far you only sound like a day trader/lottery ticket player ("I'm ahead.") who only remembers his winners and conveniently forgets his losers. Probably why the extended silence since April. Did you have WashMu?

[Steve Netwriter]

They slaughtered the longs on the way down,

Now they are going to slaughter the shorts on the way up !

 

It's called redistribution of money. From those on margin, to those who control the market.

 

[LauraB]

You have the greatest pull-back since $1,000, and you still would not start buying at these levels?

When WOULD you buy? $700, $600, or $500?

 

The account is in Euros

 

........... & suddenly the word Euro has brought me out in a sweat

 

Me thinks I should transfer even more to BV & sod the loss of interest

 

 

 

It wasn't doubt GF, just a minor hesistation. Aren't I allowed even that?

 

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

Here is a naive thought:

 

1971-1974: gold goes x6 and then /2. --> Result at interim bottom: x6/2 = x3

 

1999-2008: gold goes x4 and then x3/4. --> Result at interim bottom: x4x3/4 = x3.

 

The bottom could therefore be $250x3 = $750.

 

EDIT: The rise now has been more sustained/slower, therefore maybe also less volatile/deep correction. End result however is the same.

[Compounded]

Here is a naive thought:

 

1970-1974: gold goes x6 and then /2. --> Result at interim bottom: x6/2 = x3

 

1999-2008: gold goes x4 and then x3/4. --> Result at interim bottom: x4x3/4 = x3.

 

The bottom could therefore be $250x3 = $750.

 

Possible, though this is more extreme than the 70's don't you think?

 

Supression though covert is continuing into to upswing.

 

I suspect the cartel have got pretty competent men doing the supression.

 

They know about charts and all that stuff better than most of us.

 

JS and cgnao both say gold on margin is madness, you are up against experts who will empty your wallet; physical and wait is my strategy.

[wren]

I still don't get, why did gold price drop in euros? if euros devaluated against dollars, gold in euros should be gonig up, it takes more euros to buy gold now. this 'misunderstanding' should be fixed by the market soon IMHO

Yes. The euro price also has dropped quite a bit.

 

But owing to the very dramatic increase in the US$, less seriously than in the US$ price.

 

But hats off to the cartel: une pièce de résistance.

 

Let the battle begin.

 

[G0ldfinger]

Silver. Very naughty!

 

 

 

[warpig]

<dont worry boys>Have faith, the fundamentals are intact. TA will never predict unprecedented events.</dont worry boys>

[frizzers]

http://www.retro.ms11.net/InvestorMind.gif?ref=patrick.net

[G0ldfinger]

<dont worry boys>Have faith, the fundamentals are intact. TA will never predict unprecedented events.</dont worry boys>

I have to admit, I pretty much don't believe in TA anyway. But every now and then it seems to work. Superstition, everywhere!

[Steve Netwriter]

http://www.retro.ms11.net/InvestorMind.gif?ref=patrick.net

 

:lol: :lol:

 

I think that deserves a little more prominence

 

 

:lol:

[qwerty]

I have never seen this hapen at Kitco before on their front page and I have been visiting that site for around four years!.

 

 

http://www.kitco.com/

 

Please Note: Metal price changes are now based on closing prices at 5:15 PM NY time Mon-Fri. As a reference point Click for details.

 

IMPORTANT NEW NOTICE: Due to market volatility and higher demand in the entire industry, we are anticipating delays in supply of all bullion products.Please note that you can continue to place orders and prices will be guaranteed; however, cancellation fees will still be applicable regardless of the length of the delay. Consequently once inventory is received there may also be delays in processing and shipping by our vaults.

[stevecook172001]

Who, exactly, are the "cartel"?

 

How, exactly, do "they" influence the global price of gold?

 

For, exactly, what purpose?

[Steve Netwriter]

I did this one a while back. I think that's what people are talking about:

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Who, exactly, are the "cartel"?

 

How, exactly, do "they" influence the global price of gold?

 

For, exactly, what purpose?

 

Hi Steve

 

I could tell you, but then I'd have to kill you :blink:

 

Oh OK then, I'll risk it.

 

Cartel: A group of bankers who act in secret together. See who makes up the Fed

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cartel

 

Influence on gold: By selling it, and by shorting it.

 

Why? The generally held belief is that gold is an indicator of inflation & the economic state. A rapidly rising gold price draws attention. Some also believe that gold is in direct competition with fiat currencies.

 

For more idea on this, see:

 

Manipulation in the Gold/Silver & Other Markets

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3214

 

and:

 

Anyone Doubt the the existence of the PPT

Ben spills his guts (well sorta)

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=789