GOLD

[Mr Pipples]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5e1865f6-6af7-11...00779fd18c.html

[frizzers]

Steve,

 

I have asked you this before so apologies . What is the URL of that site which has the gold chart with the COT position underneath?

 

Thanks

 

CC

[Magpie]

60 trillion - i think you can double it

 

link

 

I can't make my mind up about this "unfunded liabilities" argument. To be honest I think it is a bit of a bogeyman, put about by people who hate the government doing anything to redistribute resources.

 

Basically any welfare system has a bit of double-think built into it. The claim is that we put money aside for the future, to be spent when we get sick or old. The reality is that today's taxes and government spending cover today's spending on the old and infirm. Effectively the tax system redistributes money to those who need it. In the future the same will happen even if the balance needs to be revised as we go along. The fact that spending in 10 or 20 year's time is "unfunded" is therefore something of a red herring of an argument.

 

On the other hand the US has got a slightly different problem, which is that raising tax is so politically difficult, and they have been able to spend on deficit to an unusual degree. So they have brought i some elements of welfare without ever really honestly addressing the fact that this requires redistribution of current income. So to some degree tomorrow's money is being spent today.

 

However I still think it is something of a bogus argument. Similar arguments could have been made in any country who set up a more comprehensive welfare system, and yet they manage to cope up to a point. There is no perfect solution as ever, but I think the 'unfunded liabilities' argument needs to be taken with at least a small pinch of salt.

 

[Plastic Elastic]

Steve,

 

I have asked you this before so apologies . What is the URL of that site which has the gold chart with the COT position underneath?

 

Thanks

 

CC

 

Obviously I'm not Steve but do you mean this one?

 

Perhaps it is a good sign that the Commercials are increasing their Long positions again. They have been relatively short for a long time and I think everybody (including myself) chose to ignore it.

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

There is no perfect solution as ever, but I think the 'unfunded liabilities' argument needs to be taken with at least a small pinch of salt.

 

Maybe

 

but it was a quote from a federal reserve governer

 

just dont think this trend is sustainable - maybe its because i'm too cynical

 

data below from the Federal Reserve - and they always tell it as it is

 

 

 

Grandfather Debt Summary

[G0ldfinger]

...

However I still think it is something of a bogus argument. Similar arguments could have been made in any country who set up a more comprehensive welfare system, and yet they manage to cope up to a point. There is no perfect solution as ever, but I think the 'unfunded liabilities' argument needs to be taken with at least a small pinch of salt.

I totally disagree with you on that one. Indeed, if we come to a point where one working person has to support 2-3 pensioners, there will be a problem. The problem can not be solved by starving the working population, so you have to starve the pensioneers while your hyperinflating the currency to at least through the backdoor increase taxes (especially in the US).

 

So, yes, all Western countries have this problem, which is why all their economies and all their currencies are basically doomed. The currencies more than the economies IMO.

 

Speaking of bogus argument or bogeyman totally misses the point. It's time to face these problems without illusions. Seems your not yet ready for it.

 

My advice: Get some gold, before the pensioners get it.

[Magpie]

I totally disagree with you on that one. Indeed, if we come to a point where one working person has to support 2-3 pensioners, there will be a problem. The problem can not be solved by starving the working population, so you have to starve the pensioneers while your hyperinflating the currency to at least through the backdoor increase taxes (especially in the US).

 

So, yes, all Western countries have this problem, which is why all their economies and all their currencies are basically doomed. The currencies more than the economies IMO.

 

Speaking of bogus argument or bogeyman totally misses the point. It's time to face these problems without illusions. Seems your not yet ready for it.

 

My advice: Get some gold, before the pensioners get it.

 

I agree there's an issue about aging populations, and lower birth rates. We probably have to raise retirement ages, ration healthcare for life-prolonging treatments, raise taxes etc. Also we have to understand that immigration of younger potential earners from poorer countries may be only a temporary solution to this imbalance.

 

That's all different to an 'unfunded liabilitiy' issue though. That's what I think is a bogus argument, because it doesn't address the reality of how welfare works - welfare is basically a decision about rationing in the here and now, not about using the wealth of past generations to sustain current welfare.

 

There are hard decisions to make and they will get harder if economies start to contract, horrifically difficult if economies collapse. But for me the unfunded liability argument is at the least a questionable bit of reasoning.

[azazel]

Has anyone lost their belief in the gold bull and planning to sell out, or are you confident that this is just a temporary drop in price with much higher prices to come?

 

 

[dom]

I agree there's an issue about aging populations, and lower birth rates. We probably have to raise retirement ages, ration healthcare for life-prolonging treatments, raise taxes etc. Also we have to understand that immigration of younger potential earners from poorer countries may be only a temporary solution to this imbalance.

 

That's all different to an 'unfunded liabilitiy' issue though. That's what I think is a bogus argument, because it doesn't address the reality of how welfare works - welfare is basically a decision about rationing in the here and now, not about using the wealth of past generations to sustain current welfare.

 

There are hard decisions to make and they will get harder if economies start to contract, horrifically difficult if economies collapse. But for me the unfunded liability argument is at the least a questionable bit of reasoning.

Interesting. The $60 trillion is an arbitrary figure, it matters not. The national debt will continue to grow to cover expenditure and interest on the debt, as it always has done. The most dangerous course of action is an attempt to reduce/repay the national debt. This has always been the most effective way to impoverish the vulnerable.

 

 

 

[electroweak]

Has anyone lost their belief in the gold bull and planning to sell out, or are you confident that this is just a temporary drop in price with much higher prices to come?

Today i bought some from coininvestdirect.

[azazel]

Today i bought some from coininvestdirect.

Did you notice how silver 1kg bars went from about £301 to £316 on coininvestdirect tonight? Whys that, sterling devalued? Does the rate change on weekends?

[Steve Netwriter]

Has anyone lost their belief in the gold bull and planning to sell out, or are you confident that this is just a temporary drop in price with much higher prices to come?

 

I've not seen anyone anywhere say they are selling.

Plenty buying though.

 

[notanewmember]

Has anyone lost their belief in the gold bull and planning to sell out, or are you confident that this is just a temporary drop in price with much higher prices to come?

I buy gold - a silent protest against this PC, over regulation-happy, CCTV, stealth tax, oppressive Nu-Labour goverment.

 

No, not selling.

[electroweak]

Did you notice how silver 1kg bars went from about £301 to £316 on coininvestdirect tonight? Whys that, sterling devalued? Does the rate change on weekends?

I didnt see that but it would certainly seem to tally with the paper PM vs physical PM price divergence theory which may be starting to happen..?

 

[frizzers]

Obviously I'm not Steve but do you mean this one?

 

Perhaps it is a good sign that the Commercials are increasing their Long positions again. They have been relatively short for a long time and I think everybody (including myself) chose to ignore it.

 

Thanks Plastic. That's exactly what I menat. Many thanks.

 

COT still not as bullish s I'd like.

[cazlane]

Did you notice how silver 1kg bars went from about £301 to £316 on coininvestdirect tonight? Whys that, sterling devalued? Does the rate change on weekends?

 

Something peculiar is definitely afoot with coininvest it would seem-earlier we were going to order a 1kg lunar mouse; they usually tick up and down at same prices as the kilo kook and koalas, however when I took another look the price on these had shot up £53 more than the others. I rang to enquire whether this was an error and they said it seemed like it and they'd check. Heard nothing back and didn't receive an invoice for the Koala I ordered instead 2 mins later online so either they're struggling with volume at the minute or some other odd explanation.

Now, I did mention the other day having spoken to a 'little bird' who happens to be another bullion dealer and they had commented that in spite of the drops they have seen an astonishing increase in volumes purchased in the last few days-obviously they've seen it pick up pace on dips before but not like this! Monday will be very interesting indeed

[Steve Netwriter]

A good listen:

 

In browser:

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B00.../eventframe.asp

same here:

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B00...amp;bitrate=9_a

 

 

BMO's Don Coxe on Food Prices and Shortages Thursday, May 01, 2008:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/200...don-coxe-o.html

[Steve Netwriter]

Bracing for Inflation

Despite the recent softening of oil prices, the U.S. could be looking at double-digit inflation as early as 2009

 

Growing evidence suggests American consumers, businesspeople, and political leaders should all be bracing for double-digit inflation, probably as early as 2009.

 

The relative price stability of the past 15 years is giving way to worsening inflation, despite the recent softening of oil prices. The Consumer Price Index for all items shows the inflation rate averaged 2.6% a year from 1992 through 2007 but has doubled since January, reaching an annual rate of 5.6% in July. By next year, the monthly figure could hit double digits, and the inflation rate for 2009 overall could triple 2007's 2.85%.

 

I say this not only because I have looked at a broad range of statistics that point in this direction. I also run a private equity investment firm that owns companies in a number of industries—including restaurants, the manufacture of gardening tools, oil and gas exploration services, and distribution of entertainment products such as books and videos—that are already being forced to pass price increases on to the consumer.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflas...ws+%2B+analysis

 

-------------

 

Wow, what a shock

[electroweak]

Something peculiar is definitely afoot with coininvest it would seem-earlier we were going to order a 1kg lunar mouse; they usually tick up and down at same prices as the kilo kook and koalas, however when I took another look the price on these had shot up £53 more than the others. I rang to enquire whether this was an error and they said it seemed like it and they'd check. Heard nothing back and didn't receive an invoice for the Koala I ordered instead 2 mins later online so either they're struggling with volume at the minute or some other odd explanation.

Now, I did mention the other day having spoken to a 'little bird' who happens to be another bullion dealer and they had commented that in spite of the drops they have seen an astonishing increase in volumes purchased in the last few days-obviously they've seen it pick up pace on dips before but not like this! Monday will be very interesting indeed

I thought this was a mistake

100 Kg Gold Coin, 1.000.000 Can$ 100000.00 Gramm £1328248.28 £1538438.03 £1538438.03

 

till i saw the weight. (and then bought 5 ).. but really those silver prices do seem strange. On the gold side, the pices still seem to be roughly the same as yesterday about 8% over spot.

[malco]

Has anyone lost their belief in the gold bull and planning to sell out, or are you confident that this is just a temporary drop in price with much higher prices to come?

 

I suggest you listen to this week's Financial Sense Big Picture (Part 2). I have never heard such absolutely clear, decisive and convinced advice to load up now while the stuff is on the table. Physical bullion is vanishing. This is not a gold collapse, it is an irrational dollar surge that is weird and unaccountable.

 

Also read this paper at FS to get a better feel for what is actually going on:

 

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2008/0814.html

 

Then relax....

[gasket37]

hello all

 

must admit i had assumed that the talk of silver shortages was just that. talk. i've been buying modest amounts over the last few months with no difficulties whatsoever. each delivery has been pretty quick.

 

until i logged on here http://www.thesilverxchange.com/ and had a look.

 

whenever i've looked at this site in the past they have only temporarily been out of Silver Mexican Libertads. now it looks like they are out of pretty much everything except for Silver Austrian Philharmonics on the coin side.

 

last night i could swear they had some ten oz silver bars - now nothing available.

 

perhaps it is all jim puplava's fault - on a recent FSN podcast he said he was buying a tonne of silver. i don't think he was joking.

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Welcome Gasket

 

Is that about $418k

 

If so, no wonder there's none left for anyone else !

 

[CharlieSays]

Two years for your first post, thats restrained.

[Justin Thyme]

Has anyone lost their belief in the gold bull and planning to sell out, or are you confident that this is just a temporary drop in price with much higher prices to come?

 

No way, Jose ! This is, I believe, a healthy pull back in what remains a long-term bull market in precious metals. I may not be a dyed-in-the-wool goldbug like some others on here but considering what it costs to get gold out of the ground and the inability of the financial engineering which got the global economy into this mess in the first place to extract us from it, Overall I'd say that, within the next few months, we'll probably be looking back on last week and laughing. Despite the dollar's "recovery", the credit markets were in complete disarray on Thursday and Friday . . . . and that's with the DJIA rallying like the cops had brought the decks back to the party.

 

There's something coming - something BIG ! I dunno what it is but I'm happy to be this side of GoldMoney when it gets here. All the CB 3-month dollar auctions were over-subscribed last week pointing to no end in sight for this cock-up.

[gasket37]

Welcome Gasket

 

Is that about $418k

 

If so, no wonder there's none left for anyone else !

thanks steve - love your beginners guide post + other stuff BTW.

 

i have no idea - but he did work out how many ounces it was with john loeffler. can't remember the amount, but according to google 1 tonne = 35,273 ounces!

 

Two years for your first post, thats restrained.

 

unfortunately i have little or no idea about what i am doing so i am better off being a lurker, believe me!

 

i'd rather keep quiet and be thought a fool than open my mouth and confirm the suspicion.