romans holiday Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Please can someone explain in plain english what all those lines mean from Ker's post? I am not a chartist...the only waves I know about are surfing ones.... Will the dollar collapse? Because at the moment it is putting up a strong fight....I expected to be back at £1=$2 by now... With deleveraging and repatriation, a lot of money is going into the dollar at the moment. Think of the dollar being bought as other things are sold off. This makes the dollar strong. But this strength is due more to a momentary surge than to any substantial value to be found in the US dollar. The dollar is fundamentally flawed because it is based on a hopelessly indebted economy and a fully tapped out consumer. Accordingly, expect capitulation by Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Please can someone explain in plain english what all those lines mean from Ker's post? I am not a chartist...the only waves I know about are surfing ones.... Will the dollar collapse? Because at the moment it is putting up a strong fight....I expected to be back at £1=$2 by now... It's just like knitting, it's all just about patterns. have to say I am very impressed with some of the chartists stuff though, although I don't understand all of it. google dollar bottom & moving averages you get results like this: (ps, that link isn't current btw, just you get results like this) stuff although I am sure there are much better links than this. I started at one point to get into this a bit, but you need to be either retired or doing it for a living, otherwise it takes up so much time. I have forgotten most of what I read from 2007 when I started looking into some of it. Clever stuff though as long as it's paired up with experience & common sense imo. edited - could Ker or some other clever bu55er explain for the benefit of the likes of myself & FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 ...I expected to be back at £1=$2 by now... You mean the USD is accelerating its fall down towards the fiat currency graveyard, but the Pound is falling even faster? Yes. Your exchange rate goal is identical to mine abbout which I have been writing for at least a year or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Yeah - the way I picture it is that all fiat currencies are like sky divers. They jump out of the plane (which flies level as it is made of gold) and all fall. Some increase their drag and slow their descent, others just point nose forward and then try to stall. I don't think anybody has a parachute though...and the ground is still a long way away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 You mean the USD is accelerating its fall down towards the fiat currency graveyard, but the Pound is falling even faster? Yes. Your exchange rate goal is identical to mine abbout which I have been writing for at least a year or so. Er, what exactly is the dollar falling against, at the moment? I can't call -8% DoD in shares a freefall, yet the dollar, which has been buying more property, equities and commodities, and other currencies, with each passing day, is in free fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Yeah - the way I picture it is that all fiat currencies are like sky divers. They jump out of the plane (which flies level as it is made of gold) and all fall. Some increase their drag and slow their descent, others just point nose forward and then try to stall. I don't think anybody has a parachute though...and the ground is still a long way away... Or again, to use another analogy, paper currencies will be caught up and swept aside in the whirlwind while gold remains standing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Or again, to use another analogy, paper currencies will be caught up and swept aside in the whirlwind while gold remains standing. did I win the Darwinian type award for 'worst reply of the thread award' then ? post 405. edited - currently trying to redeem myself in the Hyperinflation thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Or again, to use another analogy, paper currencies will be caught up and swept aside in the whirlwind while gold remains standing. I think I will stick to my plane analogy as it is more exciting than a whirlwind! However, your analogy has reminded me of the Wizard of Oz....and follow the yellow brick road, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Er, what exactly is the dollar falling against, at the moment? ... To quote Mervyn K., you have to see through the volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 did I win the Darwinian type award for 'worst reply of the thread award' then ? post 405. edited - currently trying to redeem myself in the Hyperinflation thread. Redeem yourself by joining the dark [deflationary] side. Edit: No proselytizing intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Redeem yourself by joining the dark [deflationary] side. Edit: No proselytizing intended. what the hell does that mean ?? just off for a quick google..... ps - if things change, so will my opinion, I am not locked into anything.... edited - ah ha.....remember I am from the North you know (although born down south. So that means good intelligence levels BUT not ar$ey with it ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 To quote Mervyn K., you have to see through the volatility. Reminds me of a quote, "to see through everything is to see nothing". How long before the people see through fiat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 : edited - ah ha.....remember I am from the North you know (although born down south. So that means good intelligence levels BUT not ar$ey with it ) What does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
creditcrunch Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 However, your analogy has reminded me of the Wizard of Oz....and follow the yellow brick road, etc... You should read this... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_int...ul_Wizard_of_Oz Wizard of Ounce. You will all love it. Following the road of gold leads eventually only to the Emerald City, which may symbolize the fraudulent world of greenback paper money that only pretends to have value, or may symbolize the greenback value that is placed on gold (and for silver, possibly).[1] Other allegorical devices of the book include: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 To quote Mervyn K., you have to see through the volatility. Well, hardly a reasoned answer, but I was expecting the more usual "why don't you buy dollars then", or simply "hyper, hyper" in big red capitals, so I guess your range is increasing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LauraB Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Redeem yourself by joining the dark [deflationary] side. Talking of deflation, some in gold would be appreciated. Just got some more money waiting in BV so I think I deserve a loyalty blip Anyone want to give the odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Ker, although I don't disagree with your sentiment what relevance does the 200 week or 3.846 year moving average have...? I guess we can all choose a convenient looking MA to bounce off but this is a fooked up market right now and I have sold the dollar too early at least once already . Cheers DD i am not sure about the timing yet, but soon dollar rally should be ending, either it could happen after the elections, or after a rate cut, or the deleverage ends .... we have to check it in the major currency pairs for better precision, right now for example, in USD/CAD it is not clear if we are on a 3rd or a 5th (the final ) wave. but once it becomes clear, this is going to be a big fall, to add and keep adding positions during months, something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Well, hardly a reasoned answer, but I was expecting the more usual "why don't you buy dollars then", or simply "hyper, hyper" in big red capitals, so I guess your range is increasing! 100% guaranteed. We will talk through everything in detail as soon as you can get me a detailed and correct Fed balance sheet, including all gold business and toxic asset purchases they're doing. Until this happens, we will have to stay in the dark and speculate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 100% guaranteed. We will talk through everything in detail as soon as you can get me a detailed and correct Fed balance sheet, including all gold business and toxic asset purchases they're doing. Until this happens, we will have to stay in the dark and speculate. Nothing wrong with trying to shed a little light on the situation by looking past the obvious? Or at least as far as the obvious! If you are in the dark, why are you so sure of yourself? If we're speculating, and of course we are, then why would the 'powers that be' wish to trash the dollar when they have just had such a long, easy period to accumulate. Much better to just trash prices, and then clean up, surely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 ... If you are in the dark, why are you so sure of yourself? ... Why are they interested in keeping the price of gold down, if they own so much of it? Why don't they tell us how much gold they have and how much is out on loan? Why don't they tell us exactly what kind of assets will be bought at what kind of prices? Why don't they publish M3 anymore? What would you do if you had $50-70tn in unfunded foreign and social liabilities and foreign central banks that own several $tns of your money? There is only one logical answer to all these questions. That's why I am so convinced that it is the right answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Why are they interested in keeping the price of gold down, if they own so much of it? I am not convinced that they much care about the PoG. It is a tiny market, they could sink gold, or send it to the moon, any time they want. But all I see is the usual patterns of trading activity and volitility I see everywhere else, somewhat exagerated by the small size of the market. Why don't they tell us how much gold they have and how much is out on loan? No-one cares? Why don't they tell us exactly what kind of assets will be bought at what kind of prices? Because they are a bunch of robbin' b'stards and they haven't even worked it out for themselves yet. Why don't they publish M3 anymore? So they can cover up the deflation and pretend that their policies are working. I would have said the same about inflation a year ago. But it doesn't work. M3 is all around us. We can see what is going on in large chunks of M3 by just looking out of the window or picking up a paper. What would you do if you had $50-70tn in unfunded foreign and social liabilities and foreign central banks that own several $tns of your money? I would try to spin the situation out until I retired, and hope the next guy has an idea If they print dollars, they cancel their debt, but also their entire asset base. Foreigners can just move in and clean up. Far worse than deflation in this respect. They would have to shut down trade to prevent this, and because they have no means to pay. It would only look tempting to a complete idiot, so I accept I it may happen, but I consider it very unlikely. The American people are not a bunch of morons, despite what some say, and they are not afraid to act, when the times call for it. It took a big drop on the dow to scare them into the bail-out. To actually print money is a big step up from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Looking forward to Spains winter gold sale that will possibly come from this. Spain Sets Up 50 Billion-Euro Fund to Buy Bank Assets (Update1) ... Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Spain is setting up a fund of as much as 50 billion euros ($68 billion) to buy bank assets, the first effort by a European country to emulate the U.S. rescue plan to shore up the financial system. ... Solbes has repeatedly said Spain's financial system is solid and savers' deposits are not at risk. Bank of Spain Governor Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez also voiced confidence in the country's banks today, saying they were not exposed to toxic debt and had a stronger provisioning system than lenders in other countries. :lol: By the way, have I recently said that Spain is toast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 I wish someone would put a rocket up silvers ass! (Excuse my crassness) Sorry for the lateness but i dont think the lone ranger would like that............. ..........ok i get me coat on the way out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 I think IRs will be shortly cut drastically. Maybe that's already priced in to Gold? EDIT UK, US rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Coin invest now out of all gold bars except 1g, 5g, 10g & 20g. I think the mania stage may have just started. Gold made an all time high in UK£ (turdling for goldfingers info) today at £510= an ounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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