GOLD

[G0ldfinger]

Rather good article here explaining why it isn't as scary as it looks/

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a7EAJelhvLh0

Why did I know even before clicking that this article would be by Mrs Caroline Superbull Baum?

 

OK, I read it back in February. Well, everyone, let's just keep printing. Scary numbers don't matter anymore.

 

Buy gold!

 

Edited to replace 'Brown" by 'Baum', which I mant.

[Magpie]

Why did I know even before clicking that this article would be by Mrs Caroline Superbull Brown?

 

OK, I read it back in February. Well, everyone, let's just keep printing. Scary numbers don't matter anymore.

 

Buy gold!

 

Baum, Brown, whatever her track record, I think she's making a fair point in the article, just that this particular stat isn't that big a deal. As she says, there are enough other things to worry about without finding new ones.

 

[drbubb]

Baum, Brown, whatever her track record, I think she's making a fair point in the article, just that this particular stat isn't that big a deal. As she says, there are enough other things to worry about without finding new ones.

 

BAUM.

She's a very clever lady. I'm mostly sure that many years ago, I used to work for her father.

I was always hearing about his "clever daughter" in New york, and they wanted to introduce us.

It never happened

 

[G0ldfinger]

BAUM.

She's a very clever lady. ...

I read some of here columns and disagreed with most of them. Agreeing with Baum would be a little like agreeing with Paulson or Bernanke. Just not my thing.

[qwerty]

Thought you might like the Volker video of his testimony to Congress befroe WombBurg decided it was too hot and cut it!

 

BTW this is an excellent blog you may want to bookmark it reminds me a lot of Cgano for some reason.

 

Volker about halfway down the page 8mins long.

 

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

[drminky]

Why did I know even before clicking that this article would be by Mrs Caroline Superbull Brown?

 

OK, I read it back in February. Well, everyone, let's just keep printing. Scary numbers don't matter anymore.

 

Buy gold!

 

Well, i don't mind that they been bashing gold so hard lately. Because the quicker they knock it down, the sooner we reach the 'trigger price', and the less consolidation we have to endure

 

At this juncture, I've been buying up the mining stocks like they are on firesale, which is essentially what they are. Even with the weakness in physical in the last few days, some stocks have been holding up quite nicely. Many are essentially already so cheap its almost ridiculous to discount them even further. I believe there's some serious smart money moving in right now, as these bargains are obvious to anyone who believes in gold's bull run. Some of those beaten down juniors are looking especially enticing..

 

At this juncture, I'm liking SSRI, JAG, DNN, SLW, MFN, YAU, NEM among others. What are the esteemed people on this board liking right now?

[Magpie]

I read some of here columns and disagreed with most of them. Agreeing with Baum would be a little like agreeing with Paulson or Bernanke. Just not my thing.

 

I don't know her writing that well. The other thing I read by her recently was a rather cutting attack on Greenspan, which I thought was pretty good.

 

[marceau]

Wow, what a rollercoaster today, a trader's dream and one of my most profitable days ever. I'm betting the little guy got hit hard though, which is unfortunate, but it's nice to see gold really get volatile (and perversely, more predictable).

 

I'm still neutral on my trading stance (and liking the flexibility that's giving me at the moment), with a long core position. I'm certainly not looking to change for the time being, as I think it's going to be a trader's market for a while, but I have to say I think time's running out for the bears, so I'm starting to drip feed small purchases for my core position on good dips.

 

I would say I'm a full-on bull again, but I can't escape the feeling that we're going to get a 'shock and awe' drop at some point in the next few weeks before we start back on the road to the highs. Today just reinforced that opinion for me, the market's bucking like a bronco and doesn't look like it's going to make life easy for those without deep pockets and deep patience.

[azazel]

What do you think is going on? A change in pattern to a new uptrend? lol I was just wondering where you were marceau!

[marceau]

What do you think is going on? A change in pattern to a new uptrend? lol I was just wondering where you were marceau!

 

 

I'm certainly getting more bullish as time goes on, but I'm still 90% convinced we're going to get an eye-watering sell day before we start a sustainable uptrend. Where that sell takes us is the important thing, if the bears wait much longer I can't see it even getting to $850 to be honest, hence my comment that they were running out of time.

 

I've waited patiently and avoided a fair few sell offs over the past month or so and I'm now confident that we are close enough to the end of this correction that I'm prepared to start adding to my core positions. I'm just doing it very slowly to avoid getting caught out by that monster drop I think is coming.

 

Of course, while I've been waiting over this past month I've also managed to build a good cash pile and make some very good profits by trading, so I'm actually quite pleased with how this correction has worked out (so far). The core position is the key, once you have that in place and the price has moved well past your average, you can afford to be more adventurous with your strategies and less worried about short term drops or missing the boat on rises.

 

On the less serious side, I couldn't help but chuckle at what must have been going through the heads of the shorts as gold did that $20 moon shot. I'm guessing a few sets of underpants took a beating today.

[drminky]

I'm certainly getting more bullish as time goes on, but I'm still 90% convinced we're going to get an eye-watering sell day before we start a sustainable uptrend. Where that sell takes us is the important thing, if the bears wait much longer I can't see it even getting to $850 to be honest, hence my comment that they were running out of time.

 

I've waited patiently and avoided a fair few sell offs over the past month or so and I'm now confident that we are close enough to the end of this correction that I'm prepared to start adding to my core positions. I'm just doing it very slowly to avoid getting caught out by that monster drop I think is coming.

 

Of course, while I've been waiting over this past month I've also managed to build a good cash pile and make some very good profits by trading, so I'm actually quite pleased with how this correction has worked out (so far). The core position is the key, once you have that in place and the price has moved well past your average, you can afford to be more adventurous with your strategies and less worried about short term drops or missing the boat on rises.

 

On the less serious side, I couldn't help but chuckle at what must have been going through the heads of the shorts as gold did that $20 moon shot. I'm guessing a few sets of underpants took a beating today.

 

Agree, what happens now all depends on what the price does. If we were to go into another retest of 850, we'd essentially be at the trigger point very very soon. If the price were to bump and grind around this level, we might see another month or two before we get there. If we slowly grind upwards, it might take until the end of the summer. In any case i still maintain that now is an excellent time to be accumulating the quality PM miners. On balance the price risk on these is heavily favoring the upside IMO..

[G0ldfinger]

A few more days like today and we will shoot over $1,000. IMO, there are a lot of bulls waiting on the sideline. Take Puru Saxena. He just said on GSR that he sold ALL precious metals and related shares in the recent downturn.

 

With bulls like this, who needs bears? And surely one needs no Cartel to explain price moves.

 

IMO, people who trade like this will be panicked back into the market when we see a few bullish days in a row.

[CIGA]

A few more days like today and we will shoot over $1,000. IMO, there are a lot of bulls waiting on the sideline. Take Puru Saxena. He just said on GSR that he sold ALL precious metals and related shares in the recent downturn.

 

With bulls like this, who needs bears? And surely one needs no Cartel to explain price moves.

 

IMO, people who trade like this will be panicked back into the market when we see a few bullish days in a row.

 

Peru is an Asia based trader, he is NOT a long term 'buy and hold' investor he looks 6 - 12 months ahead of him but always has the long term fundamentals in the back of his mind.

 

I promise you Puru will come back and say he is back in gold before gold's story is over, PURU is heavy into emerging markets and a regular on fsn with Jim Puplava. Puru has been talking about emerging markets a LOT. He is interested mostly in indices's where there is still growth in the economy invested in and emerging markets and asian markets look great at this moment in time especially during the creamy filling JP has been talking about.

 

Let's see shall we.

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

...

I promise you Puru will come back and say he is back in gold before gold's story is over, PURU is heavy into emerging markets and a regular on fsn with Jim Puplava.

...

Let's see shall we.

CIGA

 

I agree with you that Saxena will be back - he said himself he would definitely buy back into gold below $800/750 and Silver below $15. I assume he would also buy back when he thinks the bottom has been in.

 

What I meant to say is that the correction we're seeing is possibly mostly caused by the bulls themselves. Even Sinclair said he was sure gold would plummet after reaching $1,000. I would bet he sold/traded a lot around this time, basically helping to shape the plunge himself. Now, I don't know this for sure, of course, it's just an assumption. The point is, the bulls might simply be fooling themselves here to some extent. Self-fulfilling prophecy kind of thing.

[bitbigt]

IMO, people who trade like this will be panicked back into the market when we see a few bullish days in a row.

 

I fully agree. ...at some point the MASSES of money sitting on the sidelines waiting to be 100% convinced that the correction is over, will feel its time to get back in or miss out. And as those investors/speculators watch the gold screen with one eye, the other eye will be watching the rising inflation figures making them even more nervous about delaying

 

So the only question is whether a dramatic rush back in begins in the next few days, weeks, or months.

 

My guess is that it won't be later than this autumn - as we'll then have inflation far higher, the global slowdown will be undeniable, 'stagflation' will be the hot topic at the drinks cooler, and the usual end of year upswing in golds price will be due. Overall, I suspect its 50:50 whether things range in the 850-950 window for 2-3 months before the jump, vs that jump starting (though perhaps not going all the way in one go) in the next few weeks.

 

And if anyone needs further evidence that things have changed from the April knock-back, just re-read postings on this bb. During and just after the big drop to 850, even goldbugs here were uncertain, scared, and definitely not buying. Now I'm reading far more positive comments from pretty much everyone who is posting here. That positive sentiment and confidence will feed on itself, via buying that causes price rises (like today) causing more confidence, causing more buying etc... ...IMHO!

[G0ldfinger]

Good, old-fashioned hyper-inflation at work. I wonder whether they can still be bothered to print all these zeros on both sides of the note. In Germany they didn't towards the end.

The central bank has issued a 500m Zimbabwe dollar banknote, worth US$2, to try to ease cash shortages amid the world's highest rate of inflation.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7402943.stm

[qwerty]

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/saxena/main.html

 

All Puru's editorials at FS.

 

 

 

 

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/s.../2008/0407.html 7th April

 

In the current environment, I have no hesitation in recommending precious metals as a long-term store of value. A few weeks ago in the Weekly Update sent out to subscribers of Money Matters, I advised taking profits in this sector and hope that my readers did. In the weeks ahead, I anticipate the correction to continue (Figure 1) and suggest that investors start buying precious metals in the summer months.

[qwerty]

Good, old-fashioned hyper-inflation at work. I wonder whether they can still be bothered to print all these zeros on both sides of the note. In Germany they didn't towards the end.

The central bank has issued a 500m Zimbabwe dollar banknote, worth US$2, to try to ease cash shortages amid the world's highest rate of inflation.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7402943.stm

 

 

You can keep a track of how many it takes to buy 1oz of gold here

 

 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?...;submit=Convert

 

[G0ldfinger]

...

All Puru's editorials at FS.

...

In the current environment, I have no hesitation in recommending precious metals as a long-term store of value. A few weeks ago in the Weekly Update sent out to subscribers of Money Matters, I advised taking profits in this sector and hope that my readers did.

 

http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/2008/05.10...-05.10.08-c.mp3

 

At 1:26:35 he says: "at the moment I am totally out of precious metals... sold out when gold went over 1,000".

[G0ldfinger]

You can keep a track of how many it takes to buy 1oz of gold here

 

 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?...;submit=Convert

Hmm. Does Zimbabwe publish their M3? Or is it a banana republic and doesn't?

[G0ldfinger]

Where will the Dow and gold go next?

 

[G0ldfinger]

Silver looks a little as if it was coiling.

 

 

 

[Chubbs]

Where will the Dow and gold go next?

 

Apologies for the laziness in counting the dots - what period of time does each colour reference? Any graph/computer guys able to do some sexy animations to show each dot appearing over time?

[G0ldfinger]

Apologies for the laziness in counting the dots - what period of time does each colour reference? Any graph/computer guys able to do some sexy animations to show each dot appearing over time?

Each color is a year. Since there are only 4 colors, they get repeated after 4 years.

 

BTW, I think we're seeing a real Gold-EUR Anomaly here, an outlier so to speak. My guess is that it will be vanishing along the red arrow in the chart below.

 

[CIGA]

http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/2008/05.10...-05.10.08-c.mp3

 

At 1:26:35 he says: "at the moment I am totally out of precious metals... sold out when gold went over 1,000".

 

I WISH I made that move, it would have been very very profitable for me - there is NO doubt using 20/20 hindsight PURU made exactly the right move leaving the market at 1000.

 

Caveat Emptor - PURU is an experienced trading professional, i am NOT and neither are most others. buy and hold until the fundamentals tell us to sell is all i can say - however the power moves in gold... Autumn 2005-6, Autumn 2007-8, "???Autumn 2009 -10????" making me think i may be forewarned for the next one - "??unless it is THE parabolic one??".

 

God I love a gold rush! No one man can give you the answer.