bitbigt Posted June 10, 2008 Report Share Posted June 10, 2008 Weehee! Mighty Bernanke-speak lets gold drop. ...I think this drop is more than just Helicopter Ben's words having convinced the market. There must be some PPT shorting of gold going on here. They got a real fright last Friday, and decided to talk up the dollar and sell down gold dramatically, to make sure they nip the recent dawning of reality in the bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magpie Posted June 10, 2008 Report Share Posted June 10, 2008 ...I think this drop is more than just Helicopter Ben's words having convinced the market. There must be some PPT shorting of gold going on here. They got a real fright last Friday, and decided to talk up the dollar and sell down gold dramatically, to make sure they nip the recent dawning of reality in the bud Yeah, because the biggest thing these guys have to worry about is the price of gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2015 Posted June 10, 2008 Report Share Posted June 10, 2008 Guys, as the thread title has gold in it I'm going to ask a naive question, but please move or delete as appropriate. I want some. I've too much currency. I'm not into storing it so I would probably use Goldmoney.com The two things that bother me are 1) seizure 2) avoiding the potential rapid drop when the giants all take profits, tho' that could be a decade or so away!?! Can you help me out here please? Or point me to an appropriate thread as there is so much to read & possibly little time. & my apologies for being out of my depth in this awesome company Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted June 10, 2008 Report Share Posted June 10, 2008 I keep reading gold and silver need to touch their 200dma before a convincing next move up. Any TA experts have a comment on this? The good thing i suppose is the longer we consolidate above the 200dma, the higher the 200dma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted June 10, 2008 Report Share Posted June 10, 2008 I keep reading gold and silver need to touch their 200dma before a convincing next move up. Any TA experts have a comment on this? The good thing i suppose is the longer we consolidate above the 200dma, the higher the 200dma. I'm a little surprised no one found this interesting. (Maybe I need to jazz up the title.) Gold & Silver in US$, EUR & JPY with MAs The results may surpise you http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3293 As I think it tells you pretty exactly when you're at a perfect buy point. In short, I think the answer is to study history. For periods you can use the 200dma in GoldUS$, but at others, it just gets left behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 10, 2008 Report Share Posted June 10, 2008 I keep reading gold and silver need to touch their 200dma before a convincing next move up. Any TA experts have a comment on this? The good thing i suppose is the longer we consolidate above the 200dma, the higher the 200dma. I m working on a simple trading plan just using 200D SMA. http://trading-with-simple-moving-averages...ple-moving.html Gold, good time to top up when we touch 200D SMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted June 10, 2008 Report Share Posted June 10, 2008 The latest from Jim S: Dear CIGAs, The notional value of all outstanding derivatives now totals approximately $1.144 QUADRILLION. This appears to be Bank of International Settlement Spin to announce the largest gain in derivatives outstanding since they started to report. As of the last report it appeared that both listed and OTC derivatives was under $600 trillion. Now listed credit derivatives alone stood at $548 Trillion. The OTC derivatives are shown as $596 trillion notional value, as of December 2007. One can only imagine what number they are at now. Well we hit a QUADRILLION. We have more than $1000 trillion dollars in all derivatives outstanding. That is simply NUTS because notional value becomes real value when either counterparty to the OTC derivative goes bankrupt. $548 trillion plus $596 trillion means $1.144 quadrillion. It would be an interesting piece of research to see what the breakdown is of listed derivatives according to exchange to see if it adds up to the reported number. Spin is now everywhere. This means that no OTC derivative house can be allowed to go broke. This means that whatever funds are required to rescue failing international investment banks, banks and financial entities will be provided. Keep this economic law in mind. Monetary inflation proceeds price inflation and is its primary cause in economic history from Rome to present. Nothing can stop the juggernaut of price inflation heading towards every nation like a runaway freight train down a mountain. Gold is going to at least $1650. I am probably way too low with that estimate. The US dollar will trade down to at least .5200 as measured by the USDX. Gold is the easiest market to trade for the aggressive investor. Sell 1/3 when the market looks like a Rhino Horn which you will see with your French Curves at the point of the rollover. Buy 1/3 back when the price of gold looks like a fishing line hanging off a fishing rod. Your maximum power down trend line will give you this. Exchange Traded Derivatives Increased 30%, BIS Says (Update1) By Liz Capo McCormick http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=bond June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Trading in derivatives, led by short- term interest-rate futures, climbed 30 percent to a record $692 trillion in the first quarter, signaling a possible easing of tensions in the money markets, the Bank for International Settlements said. The value of short-term interest-rate futures traded on exchanges rose to $548 trillion during the three months ended March 31, a gain of 32 percent over the same period last year, the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS said today. The contracts are designed to speculate on, or hedge against, moves in borrowing rates. The figures are based on the notional amounts underlying the agreements. The increased trading ``suggests that liquidity conditions in the term money markets might have recovered to some extent after the stressful 2007 year-end,'' analysts Naohiko Baba, Patrick McGuire and Goetz von Peter wrote in the BIS's quarterly review. The gains were concentrated in derivatives denominated in U.S. dollars and euros, which had undergone a ``significant retreat'' in the prior quarter, they wrote. Banks were still pressed for cash, according to another part of the report. A derivative is a financial obligation whose value is derived from interest rates, the outcome of specific events or the price of underlying assets such as debt, equities and commodities. Derivatives include futures, which are agreements to buy or sell assets at a set date and price, and options, which are the right but not the obligation to do so. Gold is a fishing line today. Friday it was a Rhino Horn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted June 10, 2008 Report Share Posted June 10, 2008 I m working on a simple trading plan just using 200D SMA. http://trading-with-simple-moving-averages...ple-moving.html Gold, good time to top up when we touch 200D SMA A junior which adheres to your rule and could be screaming buy, touching its 200dma: http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CEY.L&a...0&a=&c= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 10, 2008 Report Share Posted June 10, 2008 A junior which adheres to your rule and could be screaming buy, touching its 200dma: http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CEY.L&a...0&a=&c= They look to be a good buy at 60p, and are making real profits. Fingers crossed, it bounces from here for CEY holders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted June 10, 2008 Report Share Posted June 10, 2008 Gold & Silver often move/trade in sympathy with each other. But I've got to say I've never seem them so co-ordinated as they have been in the past couple of days... gold.tiff silver.tiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted June 10, 2008 Report Share Posted June 10, 2008 They look to be a good buy at 60p, and are making real profits. Fingers crossed, it bounces from here for CEY holders. Are they making profits? I thought they were explorers with multi million ounce proven resources? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 10, 2008 Report Share Posted June 10, 2008 Sorry - are looking to be making real profits. Big difference slip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLASH Posted June 10, 2008 Report Share Posted June 10, 2008 Does anyone here use the Leveraged precious metals etfs through ETF Securities? I am interested in purchasing some as I want to add to my position for a short term purchase of about 6 months in addition to my core position and was wondering if anyone has any experience of these and would recommend them. I appreciate that they dont exactly follow the price but as long as they are close enough for a short term trade hopefully this should not matter too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted June 10, 2008 Report Share Posted June 10, 2008 Iran’s switch good news for gold bulls? Posted by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on 10 Jun 2008 http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/ambr...8/goldbulls.htm I love this reply: I liked the hyperbole "the world's fortress banks". The global banking system is of course the symbolic Secret Babylon of Revelation. The walls of ancient Babylon were also thought to be impregnable. When Babylon fell to Persia (Iran)in 539BC, Cyrus, the Persian commander, did it by diverting the Euphrates river which flowed under the city and supplied it with water. The Persian army then marched into the city along the river bed. This is a shrewd move by Iran into gold and may be the harbinger of a general exodus from fiat currencies by the oil countries, and others, into more stable assets. Once again Persia will bring down the greatest empire the world has ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvertedGoldBug Posted June 11, 2008 Report Share Posted June 11, 2008 Does anyone here use the Leveraged precious metals etfs through ETF Securities? I am interested in purchasing some as I want to add to my position for a short term purchase of about 6 months in addition to my core position and was wondering if anyone has any experience of these and would recommend them. I appreciate that they dont exactly follow the price but as long as they are close enough for a short term trade hopefully this should not matter too much. I was considering these a while back, until I came across the following article which kind of put me off... a kind of reality check about the pitfalls of trying to be too greedy (well, that and my lower understanding and familiarity of these methods). http://seekingalpha.com/article/35789-the-...-leveraged-etfs Excerpt from the article: A widely held misconception about these funds is that they will offer twice the return of the underlying index, which means that if the S&P 500 returns about 10% a year, then the SSO should return 20%. But that’s not true, because these funds only double the daily return, and there’s a big difference between doubling the daily return and doubling the annual return. What’s the difference? Let’s say that one day the market goes up 10%, and the next day it falls 10%. The two-day loss for the index is 1%, but the loss for the leveraged fund is 4%. Here’s why: Index: (1 + 10% ) x (1 - 10%) = 1.1 x 0.9 = 0.99, 1% loss X2 Fund: (1 + 20%) x (1 - 20%) = 1.2 x 0.8 = 0.96, 4% loss Thus over a two day period, this fund’s losses are 4x the amount of the index, not 2x. This example comes from the ProShares prospectus, and is a clear indication that investors in 2X funds should not expect their investment to provide double the return of the S&P 500 for any period longer than one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2015 Posted June 11, 2008 Report Share Posted June 11, 2008 Guys, as the thread title has gold in it I'm going to ask a naive question, but please move or delete as appropriate. I want some. I've too much currency. I'm not into storing it so I would probably use Goldmoney.com The two things that bother me are 1) seizure 2) avoiding the potential rapid drop when the giants all take profits, tho' that could be a decade or so away!?! Can you help me out here please? Or point me to an appropriate thread as there is so much to read & possibly little time. & my apologies for being out of my depth in this awesome company Oh well, never mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted June 11, 2008 Report Share Posted June 11, 2008 Oh well, never mind They worry some of us also. Give the guys a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 11, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 11, 2008 Iran’s switch good news for gold bulls? Posted by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on 10 Jun 2008 ... This is why a nation needs gold: no threat of it being seized, no default risk, no risk of devaluation by helicopter people. It all goes to prove the gold bug axiom that nations - like people - will invariably turn to bullion as the ultimate store of value when all is threatened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted June 11, 2008 Report Share Posted June 11, 2008 Oh well, never mind Re. Q.1 - there's bits on this over here and here. Really down to how extreme you think things will get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enrieb Posted June 11, 2008 Report Share Posted June 11, 2008 Guys, as the thread title has gold in it I'm going to ask a naive question, but please move or delete as appropriate. I want some. I've too much currency. I'm not into storing it so I would probably use Goldmoney.com The two things that bother me are 1) seizure 2) avoiding the potential rapid drop when the giants all take profits, tho' that could be a decade or so away!?! Can you help me out here please? Or point me to an appropriate thread as there is so much to read & possibly little time. & my apologies for being out of my depth in this awesome company There is no need to apologise anyone should feel free to ask any question they like in the gold thread or even any area of the forum, everyone has to start somewhere and no question is to naive or basic because if you have to ask it then there is a strong chance that there is lots of other people out there who would like to know the answer. As someone who had never invested before, I gained a lot of my knowledge and the confidence to invest in gold through this reincarnated gold thread aswell as learning from Jim Puplava FSN, Peter Schiff Euro Pac, Michael Hampton CWR Jim Sinclar, Von Mises institute etc I hear a lot of good things about goldmoney and it is something I intend to use soon. At the moment though I prefer adding to my physical gold holdings, but I will start using goldmoney for the trading convenience soon. The issue of seizure is a tricky one that cannot fully be discounted. If currency depreciation is small, gold's rise will be small and so not much chance of seizure. If currency deprecation is huge then the gold price rise will be huge and the bigger the risk of seizure. However if you have £10,000 and choose to invest £5,000 into gold and the currency depreciates to almost nothing and seizure becomes a real possibility, would you have rather kept all your assets in fiat? I would rather be holding gold that has appreciated in value against the fallen currency. Your purchasing power in Fiat is being seized daily by inflation, you have to weigh up the risks. Holding physical gives me a better chance of keeping hold of my gold, sure they can take, they can take it from my cold dead hands. Should seizure begin to look like a real possibility then I expect my house will be burgled and my gold stolen, who knows years later when I take up a hobby metal detecting I may even find that the burglar dropped it all at the bottom of my garden when he was escaping. If you don't fully understand the reasons why to invest in gold and you feel panicked into buying you may find yourself just as easily panicked out of gold. The weak hands in the market will be shaken out, so be sure you fully understand the reasons why you are investing in gold and make sure you understand the gold market and the sudden moves it can make both up and down with long periods of consolidation. This is going to take a little bit of research but there is plenty of information around on the web and links will appear in this thread from time to time that will add to your knowledge. Knowing when to exit the market is also going to require some research, others here have their own exit strategies, for me it mainly comes down to price ratios gold/dow or gold/oil gold/housing. When gold starts to look over valued in comparison with another asset that looks undervalued then I will start to diversify out of gold. The most common ratio referred to is the gold to Dow Jones ratio. In 2000 the it took 44 ounces of gold to by the Dow Jones, last year the ratio came down to 20 ounces to 1, this year the ratio peaked at 12 to 1 and I expect it will end the year it will be 10 to 1 or lower. In 1980 when gold hit its all time high it was 1 to 1 with the Dow Jones, but that $850 high was a one day bubble so it would have been much more realistic to sell when the ration got to 2 to 1. The trick is to diversify out of gold slowly, say you have 50 ounces of gold, perhaps when the Dow ratio is 5 to 1 you could sell 10 ounces and buy some shares, keeping the other 40 ounces in gold as the ratio drops further to say 4 to 1 sell another 10 and buy shares and so on until the price is 2 to 1 you will still have some invested in gold as insurance against hyperinflation or for the real big bargain price and should gold go 1 to 1 with the Dow then sell the remaining gold as this will probably be the high, but at least even it if did not get all the way to 1 to 1 then you will have profited from you gold. DrBubb spoke about a good strategy for trading and it was a very disciplined way of investing, he was talking about investing in mining shares with Frizzers on Commodity Watch Radio and I hope I am not misrepresenting his advice here but I remember it as: Do your research, buy low, wait for the asset to double in value, then sell half and get back your initial capital. Jim Sinclare has a good strategy for exiting the gold market and Goldfinger also has an excellent short list for when to sell gold. Edit: sorry if thats a bit rushed, I will try to add some useful links later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted June 11, 2008 Report Share Posted June 11, 2008 Oh well, never mind Depends how much you are thinking of buying. I don't see any problem stashing a reasonable amount at your home. Put some in bullion vault or GM too. Don't be greedy and get out gradually and early is my plan. I also worry about the issues you raised but I'm more worried about not having gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dst Posted June 11, 2008 Report Share Posted June 11, 2008 Oh well, never mind seizure - i think this is unlikely, but some people recommend physical gold and look after it yourself for this reason. I don't do this because 1. i don't want to store gold in my home or in a deposit box 2. if you do want to sell quickly, it might be more difficult with physical. BullionVault.com - you can buy gold in their New York, London and Zurich vaults - many people go for Zurich due to it being the least likely to be seized. I have some in both London and Zurich. When to buy/sell I think we all worry about that, also the % of your wealth to allocate the gold? The worst case scenario of a massive collaspe in the POG, I *hope* would only happen after an obvious bubble like growth. Thinking of owning some gold as an insurance policy against eveything going tits up gives me some comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2015 Posted June 11, 2008 Report Share Posted June 11, 2008 Thxs guys. Level-headed, non-ramping, deep thought from all. Appreciated. _(An aside:- as my brush cutter ran out of petrol 10 mins ago, I thought there may come a time soon when I have to switch to a mule, if I can afford one. Some land, & soon a little gold may be all I have. Sobering. It's happening very fast now.)_ It will take a couple to weeks to get the gold accounts opened, so I hope nothing takes off just yet. Did I see right & future prices are not alarming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
signofthetimes Posted June 11, 2008 Report Share Posted June 11, 2008 Did I see right & future prices are not alarming? how alarmed do you want to be? http://www.moneyweek.com/file/48581/why-go...0-an-ounce.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted June 11, 2008 Report Share Posted June 11, 2008 Apologies to all for the blatant off-topic cross post. BUT... Does anyone on here also have a view on the Japanese Yen? ... Over at the GBPJPY thread we're a touch confused by the current situation and would appreciate contributions from anyone with a view on the subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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