sossij Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 This is catastrophic (for houseowners, banks, the UK economy, but not necessarily for you). The average home owner oozes now £22,000 in equity every year. And, I can't stress this enough, this is only the very beginning. I am looking forward to houses losing 30%-50% of their value over the course of this meltdown. In some extreme cases it will be more. Ceterum censeo, Hadrian's Wall won't stop this crash. What does it mean? Northern Rock was only the beginning. I expect the nationalization (i.e. bankruptcy) of banks like Barclays, HBoS and RBS over the years. All amounts of money necessary to keep these turds afloat will be created. Our shiny yellow friend will be your lifeboat in this financial holocaust. I believe that by 2013 gold will have doubled (at least) in $ terms, £1 will equal $1 (at best) and UK house prices will have halved (at least). Makes sense to save for a house in gold to me... well, that's my plan anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattFC Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 looking like good value to the miners Global gold hedgebook cut by 16 pct in Q2-Fortis Visit My Websitehttp://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL712123820080807?rpc=44 LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Gold miners cut their hedging positions by 16 percent in the second quarter of 2008, but the dehedging rate is expected to slow significantly in the remainder of the year, a report said on Thursday. Miners bought back 3.5 million ounces of hedged gold in the second quarter, bringing the total global hedgebook to 18.7 million ounces, it said. Anglogold Ashanti (ANGJ.J: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the world's third largest gold miner, led the dehedging, buying back 2.7 million ounces of gold in the second quarter. Thirty other companies also cut their hedgebooks during the quarter, by a combined 800,000 ounces. Sino Mining (SGX.AX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Barrick (ABX.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Newcrest (NCM.AX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Lihir/Equigold (LGL.AX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) all cut their positions by more than 100,000 ounces. The quarterly report, produced by VM Group and Haliburton Mineral Services and sponsored by Fortis Bank, said it expects dehedging to tail off in the remainder of the year, with second-half dehedging expected to reach only 2-4 million ounces. Anglogold Ashanti has only 800,000 ounces of the dehedging programme it announced in the second quarter still to complete, it said. "Anglogold Ashanti's enormous second-quarter dehedge means the global total has fallen sharply," said Matthew Turner, VM Group analyst and author of the report. "However, as most of their dehedging programme is now completed, barring any big surprises from them or other companies, the rate of global dehedging will slow sharply from now on." Hedging allows producers to lock in prices for future output, but it can backfire if metals prices rise above the hedged price Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 The thing that is annoying me is that as fast as Gold is dropping so is stirling. Its not getting any cheaper to buy physical We are here 872 / 1.94 = 449 + 6% = £475.94 We could at least be here 872 / 1.99 = 438 + 6% = £464.28 I wish we was here 872 / 2.06 = 423 + 6% = £448.39 It looks like my target spot rate is @ $820 using the current £/$ rate I's really unsure if we will be seeing that tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 The thing that is annoying me is that as fast as Gold is dropping so is stirling. Its not getting any cheaper to buy physical We are here 872 / 1.94 = 449 + 6% = £475.94 We could at least be here 872 / 1.99 = 438 + 6% = £464.28 I wish we was here 872 / 2.06 = 423 + 6% = £448.39 Agreed - but remember, the UK is 1 year behind the US in its economic collapse, so the pound will probably fall a lot further still against the dollar. So my view is that it makes sense to buy now, and not wait. And indeed, I did just now top up ...buying my 3rd wadge of silver 1/2 hour ago at 16.14 In pounds that gives me 1/3 at 8.65 (USD 17.0, GBP:USD 1.965) 1/3 at 8.57 (USD 17.10, GBP:USD 1.995) 1/3 at 8.30 (USD 16.14, GBP:USD 1.945) So breakeven = GBP 8.56 (USD 16.65 with todays exchange rate) ...so I need 3% improvement to get into profit - and stirling could easily fall that far even if silver doesn't go up in dollars EDIT: just realised this matches my gold purchases in 2006 (when the gold market all looked to have topped), 1/3 at 620, 1/3 at 620, 1/3 at 580 ...and very glad I did it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 Agreed - but remember, the UK is 1 year behind the US in its economic collapse, so the pound will probably fall a lot further still against the dollar. So my view is that it makes sense to buy now, and not wait. And indeed, I did just now top up ...buying my 3rd wadge of silver 1/2 hour ago at 16.14 In pounds that gives me 1/3 at 8.65 (USD 17.0, GBP:USD 1.965) 1/3 at 8.57 (USD 17.10, GBP:USD 1.995) 1/3 at 8.30 (USD 16.14, GBP:USD 1.945) So breakeven = GBP 8.56 (USD 16.65 with todays exchange rate) ...so I need 3% improvement to get into profit - and stirling could easily fall that far even if silver doesn't go up in dollars Unfortunately I have a self imposed chastise of £450 per ounce before I can pull the trigger, its getting closer and closer and then £ drops I got my timming wrong @ £400 and ounce and only managed to get minimal fills at the end of 2007 Did better last summer tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 Pardon my ignorance, but what do the colours represent - I assume time? Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 I believe that by 2013 gold will have doubled (at least) in $ terms, £1 will equal $1 (at best) and UK house prices will have halved (at least). Makes sense to save for a house in gold to me... well, that's my plan anyway That sounds about right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 Testing that $875 Angel again this afternoon Where the bad news coming from today, isnt oil up ?? Some people have always good reason to sell a lot of gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 GF, Do you have a web link to the Doom & Gloom Update Team? Regards, PiXeL8r Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 Some people have always good reason to sell a lot of gold. ...I wonder if one of those reasons recently involves big institutional longs on margin that are having to sell? If so, the recent spike down will bounce back with a vengeance once those sells are finished with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dispassion Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 Bottom line - watch USDX, don't watch EUR:USD to better predict the price of gold This is a good point, perhaps Goldfinger can produce a plot to correlate the dollar index with the dollar price of gold, for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 This is a good point, perhaps Goldfinger can produce a plot to correlate the dollar index with the dollar price of gold, for comparison. stefanmo on GIM is doing a regression plus chart on a regular basis: http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...p;postcount=175 I personally don't have USDX data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 why does it looks to me that this markets are oversold in the medium term (i mean oils, golds , & etc...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 why does it looks to me that this markets are oversold in the medium term (i mean oils, golds , & etc...) or it is calm before the storm , or retest of previous highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 For some reason the USD got stronger today. Looks to me almost as if some forced liquidation is going on somewhere. Or what is so $-positive at the moment? (Is Fort Knox finally reported to be empty? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 eur breaking 1.5300 will cause a huricane of selloffs until euro 1.4500 , currently 1.5340 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 TIMING QUESTION: If you were China, and you wanted to strengthen your currency - by switching some reserves OUT OF DOLLARS and INTO GOLD. When would you do it?: + Before the Beijing Olympics? + After the Beijing Olympics? No prizes for the right answer Benefit: you can lower commodity price inflation Cost: less exports to the US- but they are fading anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 That sounds about right to me. Hey GF, didn't you used to post some graphs of UK houseprices in gold back on hpc? Do you still do them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 TIMING QUESTION: If you were China, and you wanted to strengthen your currency - by switching some reserves OUT OF DOLLARS and INTO GOLD. When would you do it?: + Before the Beijing Olympics? + After the Beijing Olympics? No prizes for the right answer Benefit: you can lower commodity price inflation Cost: less exports to the US- but they are fading anyway During... while no one is watching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 or it is calm before the storm , or retest of previous highs recovery of eur above 1.5350 would confirm temporary pull up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 Hey GF, didn't you used to post some graphs of UK houseprices in gold back on hpc? Do you still do them? Click the link in GF's signature. Lots of good graphs there including UK house prices in ounces of gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 Click the link in GF's signature. Lots of good graphs there including UK house prices in ounces of gold. Thanks wren I seem to be signature-blind these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dispassion Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 stefanmo on GIM is doing a regression plus chart on a regular basis: http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...p;postcount=175 I personally don't have USDX data. Pretty similar, but this is to be expected since the Euro is most of the basket in the dollar index. http://www.akmos.com/main/forex/usdx.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 my bottoms collection is getting bigger: http://www.gold-prices.biz/buy-gold-call-options/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted August 7, 2008 Report Share Posted August 7, 2008 Those gold and silver lease rates have just gone positive again - as happened last time before the rally! http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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