GOLD

[headmelter]

Don't worry. If you hold the real thing with no margin attached, I mean.

 

The ferocity of the takedown is an indication of central bank desperation.

 

They know they must raise rates but they can't do that without instantaneously imploding the system.

 

By immutable economic law, bad debt monetization is inflationary; the effects can be masked in the short term but in the end monetary inflation ALWAYS results in rising prices.

 

 

cgnao, any bad news due out?

 

We could be doing with a bit of doom and gloom.

[Steve Netwriter]

I am repeating myself here, but this unique (since 1985) coil pattern is going to explode violently. And I don't think it will be to the upside. Silver is going to shine.

 

Don't worry, I for one never get tired of hearing it

 

 

[kernull]

Its a bit concrening that Gold seems to be falling faster than Oil due to the fact that it is possible Oil could bottom in the $80-$100 range although I suspect $100 is probably the floor but it means Gold probably still has further to fall.

 

sure it will, if you really believe it is going to fall, take some short.

[kernull]

Silver is going to shine.

thats why my physical PMs are only silver

(and some aluminium and steel just in case of home repair or anything :) )

[mattyboy]

Sorry to hear this. Just try and stay away from margin in anything gold. Think of people (like cgnao or DrBubb) who got into gold very early and have seen movements like this many times over. Even I, who started buying gold much later, can't be @rsed to feel anything stronger than "darn it, should have bought my silver at $16.60 rather than at $17.40." But at the end of the day, will it matter once it has reached +$100?

 

Cheers GF - don't worry, I have got nothing on margin mostly physical with BV and Perth Mint. Also worth noting (ss someone else pointed out) that the US$50 drop from 930 to 880 is actually about AUD$10. Sometimes it is nice to get a bit of reassurance tho!

It does sh!t me the way the juniors behave - seemingly on a downward ratchet, they plummet when gold goes down but the upward movements just don't seem to keep pace!

I am not really a TA advocate and I am not trading any of my positions - fundamentally, what has just happened? The Fed's statement is more doveish (slightly) than the last. They are sticking with -ve real rates for the foreseeable and we all know what that has meant in the past!

 

[cgnao]

Gold was bombed specifically to allow the FED to hold rates. It has bought some more time but many tonnes of precious physical gold left central bank vaults for good.

 

The losers are those on margin forced out of their longs and ruined by margin calls.

 

Don't be a sucker, hold the real thing, fully paid for, no margin, no ETFs.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

 

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers indicated that interest rates won't budge until next year as they wait for the credit crisis to abate and inflation to ease.

 

The central bank, which left its benchmark rate at 2 percent yesterday, said ``downside risks to growth remain,'' dropping a reference in June's statement to ``diminished'' dangers. The Fed also said price increases are of ``significant concern.''

 

The tweaks to the Federal Open Market Committee's statement signal that Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his team want to avoid an early rate increase that further weakens employment and fuels instability in financial markets, economists said.

 

``They don't want to rock boats,'' said former Fed governor Lyle Gramley, now senior economic adviser at Stanford Group Co. in Washington. ``They want to remind people that their concern for inflation is genuine, but they have no intention of doing anything about it right away.''

[marmite]

What are peoples thoughts on the short term price of gold ?

 

Are we going to see a further smack down today / tommorrow ahead of the ECB rate decission ??

 

I read that there is strong support at $860. Is this going to be tested ?? Is it going to be broken though ??

The so called " Angels " @ 875 was punctured yesterday, although we have seen a small recovery this morning.

 

How low could the price be pushed.

 

My thoughts are that commodity (not that gold is) bashing has built up some momentem the past 2 weeks and it would seem like a good time fot PTB to continue the smack down ahead of elections and the joys of October.

 

 

P.S. The above does not change my bullish long term view.

 

P.P.S My hat certainlly comes off to all those that can trade this gold market as it has been brutal. Either get wiped out by your stops or just sit there watching the red screen. And as far as shorting goes that seems the same, $10 up this morning already

[cgnao]

P.P.S My hat certainlly comes off to all those that can trade this gold market as it has been brutal. Either get wiped out by your stops or just sit there watching the red screen. And as far as shorting goes that seems the same, $10 up this morning already

 

Trading the gold market is the best way to the poorhouse. Don't be a sucker.

 

Buy the real thing, own it clear and free of margin. Then sit on the river side and wait for the bodies to pass.

 

There is no other way.

[marmite]

Trading the gold market is the best way to the poorhouse. Don't be a sucker.

 

Buy the real thing, own it clear and free of margin. Then sit on the river side and wait for the bodies to pass.

 

There is no other way.

 

Very wise words indeed. Jim has also been advocating margin free for some time.

 

I leave the trading to others.

 

Although I do fall into the trap of trying to time the market for physicall purchases

 

I have had a price goal of £450 on Krugs / eagles for some time and have been waiting on the sidelines for months hoping to hit that price. I wonder if I will be learning another lesson soon

 

[romans holiday]

Very wise words indeed. Jim has also been advocating margin free for some time.

 

I leave the trading to others.

 

Although I do fall into the trap of trying to time the market for physicall purchases

 

I have had a price goal of £450 on Krugs / eagles for some time and have been waiting on the sidelines for months hoping to hit that price. I wonder if I will be learning another lesson soon

 

What does a few [debased] dollars/pounds matter if your eyes are on the later prize?

 

Just my opinion.... I buy each payday quicker than I can check the spot price.

[marmite]

What does a few [debased] dollars matter now if your eyes are on the later prize?

 

They probably don't, but I am just trying to have discipline.

 

I try to only buy at a pre determined price. That stops me getting too carried away with the trigger when the rockets come out

 

Not sure if it really works

 

 

[romans holiday]

They probably don't, but I am just trying to have discipline.

 

I try to only buy at a pre determined price. That stops me getting too carried away with the trigger when the rockets come out

 

Not sure if it really works

 

I gave up trying to predict short term prices with all the volitality. I know investors are supposed to be cold and rational towards their investments. But I consider gold an alternative currency rather than an investment. Also, I am not completely rational.

 

Decided to take the "dollar cost averaging" approach. Which is just another way of saying I can not restrain myself on payday.

[bitbigt]

Its a bit concrening that Gold seems to be falling faster than Oil due to the fact that it is possible Oil could bottom in the $80-$100 range although I suspect $100 is probably the floor but it means Gold probably still has further to fall.

I'd caution that - according to contrarian logic - as soon as everyone starts to think this way that's just when a sudden jump up in price is likely to happen ...could even happen today!

[G0ldfinger]

...

Although I do fall into the trap of trying to time the market for physicall purchases

...

Nothing wrong with that. I recently bought silver at $18.40 and then again at $17.30. So, what kind of timing genius am I? :lol:

[Justin Thyme]

What are peoples thoughts on the short term price of gold ?

 

Are we going to see a further smack down today / tommorrow ahead of the ECB rate decission ??

 

I read that there is strong support at $860. Is this going to be tested ?? Is it going to be broken though ??

The so called " Angels " @ 875 was punctured yesterday, although we have seen a small recovery this morning.

 

As far as short-term is concerned, if I had a good enough idea, I'd probably be trading on it.

 

Dunno that support levels mean as much in this kind of volatility. Gold is simply tracking oil so as as oil falls, gold does too. Only geo-politics or a hurricane will turn things around short-term. Until decoupling occurs, gold is a puppydog - Regardless of what we think on GEI, the rest of the market simply doesn't see gold as currency - yet !

[cgnao]

I started buying gold at the very bottom in 2001-2002 but I went all in during an afternoon raid (similar to yesterday) in the afternoon on 20 April 2006 at £344.5. On 12 May 2006 gold peaked at approx £382, when a takedown started. It bottomed on 14 June 2006 at approx £307. In September-October 2006 another huge takedown attempt bottomed at £305.

 

Had I waited for just eight weeks, I could have saved £30-40 per ounce on a very large amount. It wasn't pleasant, but not for a single moment did I contemplate selling. As I had no margin, nobody could force me to do so.

 

Today gold trades more than £100 higher.

 

Invest accordingly.

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=28360

I am pleased to announce that at 15:32:37 GMT on 20 April 2006, I surrendered the last of my paper capital for gold, at a spot price of £344.5

 

My policy from now on is that any amount in my possession exceeding £1,000 or equivalent in any paper currency shall be converted into gold bullion as soon as practically possible and in any case within at most one business day, regardless of market conditions.

 

This will apply until either the market price of one ounce of gold can buy the DOW Jones, or nominal long term interest rates exceed the money supply growth by at least 3%.

[ologhai]

Wow! Unusually, I'm not one of those feeling negative (which is probably a catastrophic sign in itself! ).

 

I've just been trying to calmly buy the dips lately, and my timing's been okay. This week, I've added about 10% to what (around here at least) seems to be called my 'core holding', half of that in gold on Monday, and the other half in silver today.

 

Steve should be proud of me for not going to pieces for once...

[marmite]

I started buying gold at the very bottom in 2001-2002 but I went all in during an afternoon raid (similar to yesterday) in the afternoon on 20 April 2006 at £344.5. On 12 May 2006 gold peaked at approx £382, when a takedown started. It bottomed on 14 June 2006 at approx £307. In September-October 2006 another huge takedown attempt bottomed at £305.

 

Had I waited for just eight weeks, I could have saved £30-40 per ounce on a very large amount. It wasn't pleasant, but not for a single moment did I contemplate selling. As I had no margin, nobody could force me to do so.

 

Today gold trades more than £100 higher.

 

Invest accordingly.

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=28360

 

This is what im wondering. A lot of people are trumpetting a seasonal rally in gold in September this year but its not always the case as seen in 2006. With the elections their is arguebly a bigger case in 2008 for a huge takedown.

 

And as Justin Thyme pointed out gold does appear to be tracking oil on the way down so where would the PTB want the price of oil to be in the run up to the election ?

 

Its just food for thought really but when adding to the stack I can be penny pinching

 

[cgnao]

This is what im wondering. A lot of people are trumpetting a seasonal rally in gold in September this year but its not always the case as seen in 2006. With the elections their is arguebly a bigger case in 2008 for a huge takedown.

 

And as Justin Thyme pointed out gold does appear to be tracking oil on the way down so where would the PTB want the price of oil to be in the run up to the election ?

 

Its just food for thought really but when adding to the stack I can be penny pinching

 

Gold is money and the only insurance against the unthinkable, which has sadly become quite possible lately.

 

The mountain of derivatives can implode any moment, bringing down with it the international monetary system.

 

The collapse will be so swift that you simply will not have the opportunity or time to react.

 

Are you willing to run the risk?

[G0ldfinger]

Dan Norcini's newest chart compares the 2006 bottom with the situation right now. Reading this chart, if there ever was a time to buy, it might be now.

 

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfil...-5-2008_(2).pdf

[drbubb]

Dan Norcini's newest chart compares the 2006 bottom with the situation right now. Reading this chart, if there ever was a time to buy, it might be now.

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfil...-5-2008_(2).pdf

 

Nice chart!

I note that:

+ GLD broke the 200d.MA (near $87.5. $xxx for Gold) yesterday with decent (but not awesome) volume

+ The 233d.MA ($85.30) is a smidge below yesterday's low at $85.94 (vol. 20.2 million)

+ The 252d.MA is still lower at about $84.00

[kernull]

oil is consolidating just below the strongest support line: 120

bearish sign

expect the downtrend begin at 10:35 (crude inventories) , move should be of 10 bucks , however at 115 we certainly will bounce

the ideal short position for gold would be 889, but it as 885 right now, lets see what happends

[drbubb]

oil is consolidating just below the strongest support line: 120

bearish sign

expect the downtrend begin at 10:35 (crude inventories) , move should be of 10 bucks , however at 115 we certainly will bounce

the ideal short position for gold would be 889, but it as 885 right now, lets see what happends

 

I repeat my earlier forecast- made when Oil was on its way to $146:

 

+ Crude oil will fall to about $100 (target: $80-$110), and then

+ Crude will soar to $400 by 2010-12

 

The first part may come within August (and could be retested) - which is sooner than I had thought

 

[ritter]

As the debated rages on whether we will get inflation or deflation (must admit I'm still ensure) I can understand that gold is a good investment for inflationary pressures but if all the debt is written off and deflation abounds what would happen to the price of good. I am looking to stick 20k of the STR fund in PM's and just want to be sure. I am convinced that the price is right but still hesitant in the long term.

 

bb

[Steve Netwriter]

I started buying gold at the very bottom in 2001-2002 but I went all in during an afternoon raid (similar to yesterday) in the afternoon on 20 April 2006 at £344.5. On 12 May 2006 gold peaked at approx £382, when a takedown started. It bottomed on 14 June 2006 at approx £307. In September-October 2006 another huge takedown attempt bottomed at £305.

 

Had I waited for just eight weeks, I could have saved £30-40 per ounce on a very large amount. It wasn't pleasant, but not for a single moment did I contemplate selling. As I had no margin, nobody could force me to do so.

 

Today gold trades more than £100 higher.

 

Invest accordingly.

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=28360

 

Impressive.