G0ldfinger Posted August 5, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 ... •GM, Ford, Chrysler Swaps Signal an Almost Certain Default, UniCredit Says Seems they're going to be allowed to feed from the begging bowl as well... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Dingell Pushes Access to $25 Billion in Plant Aid for GM, Ford By Jeff Green Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- A Michigan lawmaker is asking the U.S. to speed rules that would free up $25 billion in government loans to convert General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC factories to build alternative-fuel vehicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Seems they're going to be allowed to feed from the begging bowl as well... but that's still more debt they'd be taking on, presumably at a preferential rate though, eh? - The cash would have to be used for conversion of the factories, I am sure congress or whoever would require it to be so. I still reckon they're "for it" - the mincer, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Suits my mood http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dy3zVU5XFLo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Suits my mood http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dy3zVU5XFLo Don't worry. If you hold the real thing with no margin attached, I mean. The ferocity of the takedown is an indication of central bank desperation. They know they must raise rates but they can't do that without instantaneously imploding the system. By immutable economic law, bad debt monetization is inflationary; the effects can be masked in the short term but in the end monetary inflation ALWAYS results in rising prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Suits my mood http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dy3zVU5XFLo I'm all sold out now too. Every single one of my stops (even the ones set so low you never want them to trip) have tripped. So, from a trading perspective, as they say on The Dragons' Den: "I'm out." My physical in BV is safe... and I honestly don't care about that (which is why I can understand the feelings folks have about holding physical - it really is nothing to worry about - you can just sit and hold). We've been here before, though. And I'm old enough and dumb enough to know the risks. I'm a tight git in regular life and (unlike some of you guys) I am holding down a day job which partially subsidises my losses. LOL... Maybe we need a "Traders Anonymous" forum/thread (like "Gamblers Anonymous" but with a teeny bit more science). I'm gonna take a few days out... and if I ever manage to get my head above water, I might post a chart of my P&L ... it's like the mother of all rollercoasters. And yes, GF, you're spot on. We are the "margin monkeys" ... when it's good, it's great, when it's bad it's frikkin awful! Thanks for the hugs Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 5, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Dear Christopher: I am deluged with calls and fax messages from people with call spreads, those on margin, and some speculating on futures who are telling me they are ruined. If they are invested on a cash basis they have nothing at all to worry about. What we are going through is another BLACK BOX BARF day. You and I know that gold is going to $1,200 and then to $1,650 because of all the traffic going to the Begging Bowl Fed Window. This will crater the dollar, meaning gold must go to at least $1,650. That is an axiom that will not be cheated. Having all this incoming crying and whining is really no fun. But what can I say. No one else is doing it so that person has to be me. Jim Sinclair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 LOL... Maybe we need a "Traders Anonymous" forum/thread (like "Gamblers Anonymous" but with a teeny bit more science). I once thought of starting a "Gold and Silver Bugs Anonymous" thread. "Good evening everybody, my name's wren, and I first tried gold blah blah". Sorry to hear of your difficulties. At least you've got your physical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Thanks for the hugs Steve. Ditto that, Steve ! I elected to sit out the choppiness and stop trading once we broke down through $950 so I guess this drop hasn't bothered me as much as some of the brethren insofar as my physical holdings are concerned but, as I said, nothing's changed fundamentally. Still plenty of landmines waiting to go off . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benall Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Cheer up. You should see my energy porfolio plummet from profit to loss! At least gold is (better than) money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 From tomorrow's MM: since 2000 there have been huge corrections in gold on an almost annual basis. There have more than 10 corrections of 10% or more. There have been 5 – yes, 5 - of 15% or more. Typically they are fast and violent. With silver the turbulence has been ever more bone-shaking. Bull markets are volatile. They try and throw you off. Hang on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 PS I'm not sure I agree with Erik King on that Livermore quote. Livermore was a trend-follower, he followed the action on the tape , not fundamentals. On te basis of tape action Livermore would have been shorting juniors long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 more shorts came today on oil, the 118 level should be breaking tomorrow. gold on a microscopic volume should go to 850 very fast, lets see if this level holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Agree, Ker. 850 most probably by next Tue, assuming we get a mini bounce from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieSays Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Three Million in Gold Bullion Seized at Gold Dealers House Authorities have seized $60,000 cash, some of it sealed in shrink wrap, and $3 million in gold bullion at the Moorpark, CA ranch house of James Fayed, whose wife, Pamela, was murdered last week. Twenty-five assault rifles and thousands of rounds of ammunition were also seized from the house, according to Assistant U.S. Atty. Mark R. Aveis Fayed, who was seeking a divorce from his wife, both jointly owned Goldfinger Coin and Bullion Sales and an associated Internet firm, e-Bullion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Ditto that, Steve ! I elected to sit out the choppiness and stop trading once we broke down through $950 so I guess this drop hasn't bothered me as much as some of the brethren insofar as my physical holdings are concerned but, as I said, nothing's changed fundamentally. Still plenty of landmines waiting to go off . . . To reassure myself I've just spent the evening correlating oil, gold, stock charts etc, to try to pin down what's going on these last days. ...trying to be as objective as I can!!! It seems that, quite simply, - general fear is decreasing (suggestions that banks are past the worst, oil supply is adequate, CBs will take care of everything) - and so faith in the dollar is increasing ...hence, why own or buy gold? So I asked myself, are we past the worst of the loose money big unwind, and is Asia going to slow significantly so using less oil. ....NO WAY! Also, I can't see oil falling to less than 100-110 (i.e., we're nearly there) and I can't believe the stockmarkets have bottomed. Therefore, in a few weeks time it has to be possible or even likely that (just at the time that gold's annual buying period hits) the dollar will weaken again, oil will stabilise or even increase, and stocks will then take another tumble. ....in short, gold will be set for a nice upswing. But what happens between now and then? ...well other than saying this will be a good buying period, and noting this would be difficult period to daytrade, its anyones guess. My guess - we're now at or near the bottom. ...so I plan to buy more silver anywhere below 16.3, to add to my other chunks bought at 17.0 and 17.1 (which I still think were good deals!) Hang on in there comrads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 5, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1217880612.php Silver is more advanced in the liquidation process than gold, in terms of having liquidated relatively more contracts that were added on the recent price run-up. But the four largest sliver traders still hold, according to the COT as of 7/29, a much larger concentrated net short position than normal of 59,286 contracts (almost 297 million ounces), given the overall liquidation and that does make it still dangerous short term. That, and the proximity of the 200 day moving averages in silver and gold, suggest the possibility of a final wash out. If it comes, that is a wash out that should be bought aggressively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 5, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 ... Fayed, who was seeking a divorce from his wife, both jointly owned Goldfinger Coin and Bullion Sales and an associated Internet firm, e-Bullion. Pure coincidence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dispassion Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Agree, Ker. 850 most probably by next Tue, assuming we get a mini bounce from here We're well in the MA support range now. The region around 850 looks very strong. If we see $825 again, then I'd be thinking the bull is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 5, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 I am repeating myself here, but this unique (since 1985) coil pattern is going to explode violently. And I don't think it will be to the upside. Silver is going to shine. That's all just my opinion, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 5, 2008 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 GBPUSD looks as if it wants to go lower from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dispassion Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Looks like gold lease rates have gone negative again! I'm sure some of you can explain this, but I've not had much luck finding an explanation that I have much confidence in, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Looks like gold lease rates have gone negative again! I'm sure some of you can explain this, but I've not had much luck finding an explanation that I have much confidence in, so far. I've always assumed its down to plain and simple market manipulation (paying people to borrow gold so they can and do short it) But its interesting, and encouraging, that the 12 month rate has started to rise significantly in the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Fundamentals will out in the end. The USA is bankrupt The USA is bankrupt The USA is bankrupt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLASH Posted August 5, 2008 Report Share Posted August 5, 2008 Its a bit concrening that Gold seems to be falling faster than Oil due to the fact that it is possible Oil could bottom in the $80-$100 range although I suspect $100 is probably the floor but it means Gold probably still has further to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 6, 2008 Report Share Posted August 6, 2008 Looks like gold lease rates have gone negative again! I'm sure some of you can explain this, but I've not had much luck finding an explanation that I have much confidence in, so far. I'm not sure I can help that much. 1. They are effectively paying people to lease gold - in order to knock the price down. 2. Because of the way it is calculated, it could be that the LIBOR rate is wrong. ie not representing the rates being paid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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