Itinerant Wanderer Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 THIS is going to explode. Hi Goldfinger, For those of us that aren't charty sort of folk (and by this I mean don't fully understand them rather than don't believe in them) could you give us a little more info on what you mean by this chart and how you think we should interpret it. Thanks CS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 My impression is that gold rises, and THEN the Fed raises rates. Which I think makes sense, because they keep rates low until inflation picks up, and then try to stop it. And gold is the good measure of inflation, is it not. Hi All - just back after 2 days away from me 'puta! Nice liitle run golds having today, and I'm pleased my predicted 910 floor held [i love it when I'm right!] Regarding the neat 'real rate vs gold' charting some have been doing here, my take on it is even simpler - when real rates go negative, gold shoots up [logical - because those are the times when even invested cash is loosing money, so people panick and buy gold]. The real neg rate of a few years ago thus explains why gold has done so well in last 3 years. And real rates are going negative again right now (thanks to CPI rising right now, and probably even more so for ~2 years more). So gold looks set to really jump up much higher still over next 1-2 years ...and remember also, the CPI calculation today is different from that of the past - they keep changing the math to hide real inflation. If we used the old calculation, CPI would be about 2% higher (i.e., real rates 2% lower!) ...and BTW, GDP would be much lower, so we'd actually be officially in recession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 Nice action in gold today. The start of the next move up or will it fall back again in its trading range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 OK, I hope I've got this right. This is the (Fed_Funds_Rate - Consumer_Price_Inflation), which I hope is the Real_Fed_Funds_Rate. Now the consumer price info includes all items (so does NOT exclude Food, energy etc) Even so, I still thinks it's way too low, but unless I can find better data..... My impression is that gold rises, and THEN the Fed raises rates. Which I think makes sense, because they keep rates low until inflation picks up, and then try to stop it. And gold is the good measure of inflation, is it not. Does that put us in about 1976 ? Does anyone remember how hot that year was ? There sure was global warming that year Like the graph but isn't the real fed rate -ve now? I've been thinking the same about the 70's ....Gordon Brown has done a remarkable remake of the Callaghan Years.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Callaghan Uncanny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 Like the graph but isn't the real fed rate -ve now? I've been thinking the same about the 70's ....Gordon Brown has done a remarkable remake of the Callaghan Years.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Callaghan Uncanny! Yes :D But so far I haven't managed to get the REAL inflation numbers. So that's based on the nearest I've found so far. So yes, the case for gold is even greater. Maybe imagine the 'Real' fed fund rate sloping down another 2 to 4% as the 'adjustments' reduced the decline in that line. I will try and find some better numbers. Edit: Oh, I should point out those are annual numbers, so there is no 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Gosh, it's very quiet on here Is everyone sitting with their fingers crossed ? :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted July 11, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Hi Goldfinger, For those of us that aren't charty sort of folk (and by this I mean don't fully understand them rather than don't believe in them) could you give us a little more info on what you mean by this chart and how you think we should interpret it. Thanks CS I think we're seeing a potentially very explosive coiling pattern at the very right of the above chart. I think we could see a repeat of a pattern that appeared some time ago as hinted at in this chart here: See also the comment: http://gold.approximity.com/gold_analysis.html#F7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Just for a laugh: That is not to say there would be no place for Gordon in the Bond canon. Not in the title role, of course, but perhaps as a sinister, brooding villain who is planning to destroy Britain by selling off its gold reserves at the bottom of the market – Goldbungler, something like that. All he needs is a white Persian cat on his lap, perhaps cutely named Alistair, and he would fill the bill to perfection. James Bond versus Indiana Jones: Gordon Brown and David pick their favourite http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jh...6/24/do2406.xml :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Gold - The Underlying Truth maybe we are underestimating the value of gold anyone know what happens in 2012 To get a feel for the energy technology potential of gold, the following quote from a lecture given by Mr Hudson might get your juices going: “This [gold derived, electrically superconductive] material [when charged with electrical energy] is so sensitive to magnetic fields that when it goes to the white powder form and loses 4/9ths of its weight, what it is doing is flowing light within it, in response to the earth's magnetic field. There is so much current flowing in it that it levitates 4/9ths of its weight ON THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD. Your hand has sufficient amperage that if passed under this tube [in which the powder is contained], the material floats, it is that sensitive to magnetic fields.” It took me a couple of years of thinking about this information and of digging into the original Old Testament scripture references to gold – as Sir Isaac Newton had apparently done – before I finally approached a Rabbi and asked him the following question. “Tell me Rabbi, what was it about gold that gave it such a high profile importance in the Torah?” That question led to a series of one-on-one lectures that were so complicated that the Rabbi himself had difficulty in interpreting the original Kabbalah references. In summary, from Kabbalist and other sources, the following emerged: There are ten levels in all of creation. The top three are “not of this world” and the bottom seven are “of this world”. Further, as the quantum physicists are beginning to understand, the Universe is not only infinitely large it also infinitely small. There are wheels within wheels within wheels. Within each discrete wheel, these same ten levels exist. Gold, it appears, is “not of this world”. It is in the second highest level of all that exists. Silver, on the other hand, is in the top level of the bottom seven levels. Energetically speaking, it is at the highest level that is “of this world”. Remember that it was the shekel (made from silver) that was used as money in the days of the bible. Gold, it turns out, was never money. It had a far more important role – which was why it was so prized, and which was also why there was so much emphasis placed on gold in the Holy Temple. This latter fact was also why Sir Isaac Newton was so interested in gold. Newton was possessed of one of the finest minds in all of human history. Given the limitations of the scientific knowledge of the day, he could only go so far before he finally hit a dead end, but he came to understand that there was more to gold than met the eye. And, with the light of understanding having dawned in his mind, Newton did the only practical thing he could: He resigned his position as a University professor, positioned himself to be appointed Master of the Royal Mint and, finally, he put Great Britain on a Gold Standard. This ensured that Britain’s gold would be stored all in one place, under lock and key and within easy reach. obviously not as intelligent as Gordon Brown We now have a direction: Based on the above evidence, which modern science is only now beginning to validate, gold is without doubt the most valuable substance on the planet – if not in all existence. It appears to have the power to lift humanity to a new level in its evolutionary journey. Its linkage with tangible “money” was merely facile – to sow the seed of understanding that it had a value that was beyond comprehension in days gone by. Finally, if you look at the 80 year chart 2 above, you will note that the lower curved trend line and the upper trend line intersect – you guessed it – in the year 2012. This is the same year that both the Mayan Calendar and the Chinese I-Ching forecast will be the culminating year of the current epoch. As my late father might have put it: “Some of the people who lived in those days must have been really smart cookies”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Quoted from telegraph article that the HPCers are excited about. "House prices have never fallen by more than 10pc over a year in recorded history, except in 1931, when Britain left the gold standard. David Owen of Dresdner Kleinwort said: "Back then, sterling had been ejected from the gold standard and the currency collapsed, and, although this helped exports, house prices collapsed. What we are seeing now has some parallels with then." Seems that gold is more relevant to the cost of housing than just a commodity like copper, lead etc. Perhaps they should have kept the debate on the main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 I thought Peter Schiff's radio show was particularly good today. He really goes at it with hammer and tongs. http://www.europac.net/radioshow_archives.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Gold - The Underlying Truth maybe we are underestimating the value of gold anyone know what happens in 2012 The second coming? No, just joking. But seriously, there was a vein running through that article I liked; that there is a timeless allure to gold which makes it an almost mystical substance. I know as a hard headed investor you are not supposed to be emotionally involved with your investments, but I sometimes wonder if I will be able to part with my gold when the time comes. Certainly will not part with all of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Yes, exactly :D 949. Very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 London Gold Fix in EUR AM PM 27-Jun-08 585.660 584.069 30-Jun-08 589.639 589.213 01-Jul-08 589.373 595.578 02-Jul-08 592.518 589.989 03-Jul-08 591.782 592.790 04-Jul-08 593.439 593.644 07-Jul-08 588.574 586.270 08-Jul-08 590.863 587.710 09-Jul-08 588.545 589.366 10-Jul-08 592.910 597.304 11-Jul-08 600.709 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXL9AkXzlt8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 I thought Peter Schiff's radio show was particularly good today. He really goes at it with hammer and tongs. http://www.europac.net/radioshow_archives.asp Cheers, have downloaded and will listen later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Holy cow, it's going up !!!!! 951. Break out indeed :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Yes, exactly :D 949. Very close 550 - easy peasy :-) The world and his dog though we'd fight with the 550 ceiling, so todays action is amazing and wonderfully bullish So today it will now rocket up from here! ...imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 550 - easy peasy :-) The world and his dog though we'd fight with the 550 ceiling, so todays action is amazing and wonderfully bullish So today it will now rocket up from here! ...imho You can be sure the kitchen sink will be thrown at it this afternoon on the COMEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 You can be sure the kitchen sink will be thrown at it this afternoon on the COMEX. Worth cashing some futures in now to re-open later?... I've be burnt a little trying this in the past, but perhaps not at such a clear moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Worth cashing some futures in now to re-open later?... I've be burnt a little trying this in the past, but perhaps not at such a clear moment... I'm thinking the same. But am equally cautious of being burned. Three options I guess... 1) Do nothing 2) Buy more on any dips 3) Stick some trailing stops in... then buy on dips. Very difficult to decide what to do. It really could go either way (but I feel more likely to be to the upside - and don't want to miss that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Worth cashing some futures in now to re-open later?... I've be burnt a little trying this in the past, but perhaps not at such a clear moment... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqH21LEmfbQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqH21LEmfbQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 550 - easy peasy :-) ...ahhhh ...perhaps not so easy peasy. The 550 battle is on. I suspect it'll yield with the help of our US friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now