kernull Posted March 7, 2009 Report Share Posted March 7, 2009 http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...weekly-0307.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 9, 2009 Report Share Posted March 9, 2009 next crude trade: after the top on sunday, and on break below 45 monday. short crude to 25 with stop at 45.66 (false breakout of the triangle play) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 9, 2009 Report Share Posted March 9, 2009 London on marked top at 47, lets see if NY confirms it breaking below 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 9, 2009 Report Share Posted March 9, 2009 London on marked top at 47, lets see if NY confirms it breaking below 45 well , we keep rallying, but i am not convinced the move from 147 was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 10, 2009 Report Share Posted March 10, 2009 well , we keep rallying, but i am not convinced the move from 147 was over. NY didn't rally, we had 2 consecutive (amateur buying) days rally (friday + monday) 90% probability it will go down tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 10, 2009 Report Share Posted March 10, 2009 i think that market is slowly turning down towards 25 oil. today we still had inside day, but the trend has been broken. tomorrow it is very probable we will have a big downday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 11, 2009 Report Share Posted March 11, 2009 next crude trade: after the top on sunday, and on break below 45 monday. short crude to 25 with stop at 45.66 (false breakout of the triangle play) you can short oil now. target 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverharp Posted March 11, 2009 Report Share Posted March 11, 2009 you can short oil now. target 25 thats a big call , alot of the techies seem to be talking about basing patterns. It might tie in though to the breakout of the S&P, I'd have liked to have seen lower on the S&P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 11, 2009 Report Share Posted March 11, 2009 thats a big call , alot of the techies seem to be talking about basing patterns. It might tie in though to the breakout of the S&P, I'd have liked to have seen lower on the S&P well, we have a big swing coming. its the 5th wave , the final wave. and the DOW is going to 4500 now, S&P has to do similar selloff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sideshow Posted March 11, 2009 Report Share Posted March 11, 2009 Oil still looks weak to my untrained eyes. One would have expected it to have rallied hard along with equities yesterday but it didn't. I'm looking to get back long - perhaps this time with USL - but I think I'll wait to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 12, 2009 Report Share Posted March 12, 2009 Oil still looks weak to my untrained eyes. yeah. the normal retracement would be to around 22, and then a big uptrend, but since a lot of people bought it at current levels, when they see it breaking below 25, they will panic and selloff (becase they wouldn't sleep well with such big losing position), bringing it to 17-16 bucks, and that's when you want to buy it. you have to watch it carefuly because this will happen very quick, better place an automatic buy order. (disclaimer: that's my bet only & and it may not happen, dyodd) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted March 12, 2009 Report Share Posted March 12, 2009 well, we have a big swing coming. its the 5th wave , the final wave. and the DOW is going to 4500 now, S&P has to do similar selloff I disagree with you on oil ker - I cannot see it going to 25 or anywhere near. The DOW:OIL relationship has turned for now- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 12, 2009 Report Share Posted March 12, 2009 I disagree with you on oil ker - I cannot see it going to 25 or anywhere near. The DOW:OIL relationship has turned for now- no problem. thats what market is made of , your position against mine. comentary: crude is testing broken uptrend, it appears to have failed to break it up. expecting downday tomorrow to confirm this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 12, 2009 Report Share Posted March 12, 2009 no problem. thats what market is made of , your position against mine. comentary: crude is testing broken uptrend, it appears to have failed to break it up. expecting downday tomorrow to confirm this. forgot to mention that it stoped the upside just at perfect 76.4% from 49 to 42, copper also is headed down, more reasons to beleve in strong trend reversal now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted March 13, 2009 Report Share Posted March 13, 2009 I've been out of oil for a while...either way. Contango problems seem to have been sorted for US WTI...does this indicate first sign of a foundation to the market? Lots of people probably thinking the same - could be a bit over bought as a result. People keep going too early on both stocks and oil. We can all see we may need to rush into assets at some point, but I think there will be a few false starts. I'm in for a short @ $47.30 ...but probably not all the way to $25. I still greatly appreciate the effort you put in Ker. I have noticed that a number of previously confident 'tipsters' (I'm not pointing at you in particular Ker) seem to have been racked with indecision fear of late...does this mean we are nearing a bottom...or a false bottom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 13, 2009 Report Share Posted March 13, 2009 does this mean we are nearing a bottom...or a false bottom? yeah, i think we are in a false bottom. since trends lately are of big magnitude, i am using monthlys to check main trend direction, and it is inside-moth, i.e. , no trend change happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 15, 2009 Report Share Posted March 15, 2009 Zapata George said "if you are not on board of this train, you are gonna miss one of the great train rides in history" Larry Williams said: "trading only moving averages is the easiest way to go bankrupt" and I say: "Zapata George, you are missing the train for 20 oil" http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...weekly-0314.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted March 15, 2009 Report Share Posted March 15, 2009 http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2060108...&refer=home OPEC Agrees to Keep Oil Production Quotas Unchanged (Update2) By Grant Smith and Maher Chmaytelli March 15 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC agreed to keep oil production quotas unchanged, deciding against a further output cut that risked damaging the ailing global economy. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplier of about 40 percent of the world’s crude oil, will aim to complete existing production cutbacks agreed to late last year and meet again on May 28 to review policy, Secretary-General Abdalla el-Badri said after today’s meeting in Vienna. OPEC members still need to trim about 800,000 barrels a day to comply with the record output cuts decided in December after oil slumped more than $100 a barrel from July’s record. Global inventories have started to fall, indicating the policy is working. A new cut risked a price increase that could harm the economy, Saudi Arabian Oil Minster Ali al-Naimi said. “They’ve decided that, in the medium term, the danger to the global economy was greater than the danger of high inventories,” David Kirsch, an analyst with Washington-based consultant PFC Energy, said in an interview in Vienna. “A rollover should be sufficient to draw down inventories to acceptable levels by the third quarter.” Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil, who had argued for another cutback prior to the meeting, said afterwards that all OPEC members will make an “extra effort” to comply with the existing cutbacks. Oil prices will not rise a lot from today’s decision, he added. Trading Resumes Oil futures have risen 3.7 percent this year and finished last week at $46.25 a barrel in New York. OPEC’s decision may see prices drop when electronic trading resumes this evening, analysts said. “The price may weaken slightly,” said John Hall, managing director of U.K.-based consultant John Hall Associates Ltd. Still, “as we move toward the third quarter, the overhang will come down and if OPEC can tighten up non-compliance, the price will rise.” The crude oil production target for 11 OPEC members bound by quotas is 24.85 million barrels a day, while actual output from those countries averaged 25.715 million barrels a day in February, according to an OPEC report published on March 13 that cited data from secondary sources including analysts. “Now it is time to fully adhere to the cuts we agreed upon,” Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah Bin Hamad Al-Attiyah said after today’s meeting. Saudi Compliance Saudi Arabia, which pumps more than twice as much oil as Iran, OPEC’s second-largest producer, is the only member to cut more output than agreed last year. Iran and Nigeria have made good on only about half of their promised reductions, according to figures that OPEC released March 13. The group agreed to three cutbacks late last year totaling 4.2 million barrels a day. The 12-nation producer group doesn’t expect a rapid recovery in prices to $75 a barrel, the level that several ministers and Saudi King Abdullah have previously said is appropriate to encourage investment in the industry. “The situation creates a lot of uncertainties, but we believe that by the end of the year we will find a balanced oil price,” OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos, who is also Angola’s oil minister, said at a press conference after the meeting. “We need to adhere and then in May we can look if other measures can be taken.” Less Export Revenue The group already faces a 61 percent plunge in net oil revenue this year amid declining production and prices, according to the U.S. Energy Department, which estimates OPEC will earn $383 billion in 2009 from crude exports. Global oil demand is set to decline for a second consecutive year, the first back-to-back drop since 1983. The Paris-based International Energy Agency last week cut its 2009 forecast for oil demand for a seventh month, and reduced supply estimates, as the global economic slump saps consumption as well as investment in new fields. Both the IEA and OPEC see demand slumping more than 1 million barrels a day this year, to about 84.5 million barrels a day. Finance chiefs from the biggest developed and emerging economies pledged a “sustained effort” to end the global recession and to cleanse banks of toxic assets after a meeting this weekend. The International Monetary Fund predicts the first global contraction in six decades. “By meeting again in May, they can adjust targets should economic conditions deteriorate,” PFC’s Kirsch said. “The steps they’ve already taken are starting to have some effect, we’ve started to see crude inventories in the U.S. come down.” OPEC’s May 28 meeting and an already scheduled Sept. 9 summit will both take place in Vienna, where the group’s secretariat is based. El-Badri’s term of office was extended for another three years from 2010. To contact the reporters on this story: Grant Smith in Vienna gsmith52@bloomberg.net; To contact the reporters on this story: Maher Chmaytelli in Vienna at mchmaytelli@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: March 15, 2009 13:33 EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 15, 2009 Report Share Posted March 15, 2009 http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2060108...&refer=home OPEC Agrees to Keep Oil Production Quotas Unchanged (Update2) By Grant Smith and Maher Chmaytelli March 15 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC agreed to keep oil production quotas unchanged, deciding against a further output cut that risked damaging the ailing global economy. that was in the charts 2 weeks ago crude gaps down 1 buck on sunday opening, this is going to be the mood for the week, bearish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted March 15, 2009 Report Share Posted March 15, 2009 that was in the charts 2 weeks ago crude gaps down 1 buck on sunday opening, this is going to be the mood for the week, bearish I like your TA but I think it's more powerful with a bit of news/'fundamentals'. EDIT: with nothing coming out of the g20 finance meet, are we looking at stocks down too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 EDIT: with nothing coming out of the g20 finance meet, are we looking at stocks down too? maybe this week we could start reversing: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=101693 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 we have a contracting triangle in 4hrs chart, so it is possible to hit 47.50 once again within next 2-3 trading days. (maybe when the dow will be rallying to 7450) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 so it is possible to hit 47.50 once again within next 2-3 trading days. and it also could not. because stock markets could make a pullback tomorrow with the dow to around 6900, and crude may use this day to break daily trendline and go to 40-42. i give it 50% - 50% , one thing is clear, we have made the top, but if we will going to test this top once again, i dont know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 16, 2009 Report Share Posted March 16, 2009 we have a contracting triangle in 4hrs chart, so it is possible to hit 47.50 once again within next 2-3 trading days. (maybe when the dow will be rallying to 7450) ok we hit it, now we should bounce inside the triangle , not yet ready for the run to 20s, maybe next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted March 17, 2009 Report Share Posted March 17, 2009 Do you write for FT Ker? Sounds remarkably familiar. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/33b43e54-0fe6-11...00779fd2ac.html Brent set to trickle down By Dominic Picarda Published: March 13 2009 15:59 | Last updated: March 13 2009 15:59 Crude oil’s switch from mighty spurt to tiny drip has been nothing less than spectacular. Four years of dramatic gains were wiped out in five months, as the price of Brent Crude fell from $148 to just $36 in December. And in spite of a recent rebound, the black stuff remains more than two-thirds below last year’s all-time peak. It is possible that the short-selling frenzy has gone too far. According to research from Barclays Capital this week, the number of traders speculating against crude oil in the US is near record extreme highs. Such negativity often results in price gains, as there are few bears waiting on the sidelines to come in and push the market down further. However, any sustained recovery in crude oil faces an enormous obstacle from its monthly Ichimoku cloud indicator between $50 and $62. I wrote on October 31 – when Brent Crude was at $64.70 – that the price could drop to as low as $31.54 and that “the most surprising thing could easily be the speed with which my target is achieved”. Less than two months later, Brent Crude came within a few dollars of my pessimistic objective. My analysis now suggests that the most likely direction for crude is still down to $31.54 and perhaps even to $24.25 further out. A surge through the 21-week exponential moving average ($54.35) would force me to rethink. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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