kernull Posted January 5, 2009 Report Share Posted January 5, 2009 Cheers Ker. I really appreciate you sharing your work thanks, so far, nothing new on oil. lets see what happens tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonc Posted January 5, 2009 Report Share Posted January 5, 2009 Because LOIL is a leveraged product, if you invested at $42 and it does go to $30, I believe that would double the decline from 28.6% to 57.2%. If you are unsure, that seems quite a lot to me. I have to say I am still in SOIL but am looking forward to investing in LOIL next year. I think this may be one where it is safer to invest in the trend line. In hindsight this is what I should have done (and will do). LOIL was indeed too ambitious for a hobbyist. I'm out now. It has paid for Christmas and my spring holiday (+24% in 18 days (before costs)) but I'm all too aware this was more luck than judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonc Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 In hindsight this is what I should have done (and will do). LOIL was indeed too ambitious for a hobbyist. I'm out now. It has paid for Christmas and my spring holiday (+24% in 18 days (before costs)) but I'm all too aware this was more luck than judgement. LOIL up another whopping 9% today My timing is about as good as a teenager in a brothel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 LOIL up another whopping 9% today My timing is about as good as a teenager in a brothel I think you should be pretty pleased. US light crude down 6.5% as I look today...double that for LOIL. Not for the faint hearted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 Hello Ker - as I've said before I really enjoy reading your analyses and make a point of reading them. I have a question though regarding the chartists' black art. When making decisions whether to invest or not, do you take other factors into account...I'm thinking for instance of the Isreali attack on Gaza and the Russian dispute with Ukraine which are supposed to have resulted in a sharp increase in prices of oil in the New year, and today's sharp move downwards presumably because of the French initiative to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza poss. contributing to a 10% fall in prices thus far today. You make no mention of these events on your charts. Are they immaterial to you or do you register elsewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 Hello Ker - as I've said before I really enjoy reading your analyses and make a point of reading them. I have a question though regarding the chartists' black art. When making decisions whether to invest or not, do you take other factors into account...I'm thinking for instance of the Isreali attack on Gaza and the Russian dispute with Ukraine which are supposed to have resulted in a sharp increase in prices of oil in the New year, and today's sharp move downwards presumably because of the French initiative to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza poss. contributing to a 10% fall in prices thus far today. You make no mention of these events on your charts. Are they immaterial to you or do you register elsewhere? no, i don't take news into the account, i have been researching about this, and i found this interesting documental called history's hidden engine , http://www.socionomics.net/history/ , which prooves that news are only impulsive reactions that follow main trend. So, my art is pretty easy actually, my task is to find pattern in the chart, and use them to predict what can happen in the future. And you not only have to use Elliot Wave, but you can use any pattern, geometrical, matematical (like for example, "if oil is down for 7 consecutive days, then buy") , and etc. So, forget about the news, it is much easier than you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 i think NY left crude today at the lowest possible level above support. The support is 42.50, and they made 42.40 low and now giving it away for Asia and London, then i think from here we should go up to 45 , consolidate a bit above 42.50 and attempt a new rally. If we break 42.00, then i would be bearish on oil, with target below 40, to another 35 or lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonc Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 no, i don't take news into the account, i have been researching about this, and i found this interesting documental called history's hidden engine , http://www.socionomics.net/history/ , which prooves that news are only impulsive reactions that follow main trend. So, my art is pretty easy actually, my task is to find pattern in the chart, and use them to predict what can happen in the future. And you not only have to use Elliot Wave, but you can use any pattern, geometrical, matematical (like for example, "if oil is down for 7 consecutive days, then buy") , and etc. So, forget about the news, it is much easier than you think. Ker.....ditto Hotairmail's comments on your charts. Many thanks for taking the time to post them. Do you use them to trade yourself.....that may well be a daft query but they do often seem to be accompanied by a fair level of ambiguity? Do you ever reach a point where you feel reasonably assured, ie would you buy on every seven consecutive day fall and vice versa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 Ker.....ditto Hotairmail's comments on your charts. Many thanks for taking the time to post them. Do you use them to trade yourself.....that may well be a daft query but they do often seem to be accompanied by a fair level of ambiguity? Do you ever reach a point where you feel reasonably assured, ie would you buy on every seven consecutive day fall and vice versa? yes, i do charts for my own trading, and post them for sharing. thats correct you have to have ambiguity, because when you do not consider market going against your trade, then it might be overconfidence. well, that 7 days consecutive is just an example, you have to add another variables to it. there are trading systems out there, that do precisely that, they count days and other variables and suggest a trade, they use consecutive downdays variables a lot, and when that moments arrives it just opens a position with a huge stop loss, and exit on 2nd profitable opening or something like that... dumb but profitable over time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonc Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 yes, i do charts for my own trading, and post them for sharing. thats correct you have to have ambiguity, because when you do not consider market going against your trade, then it might be overconfidence.well, that 7 days consecutive is just an example, you have to add another variables to it. Ok, that makes sense to me now. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 Seemed to be a nice bounce in oil stocks during the day for a small change in oil. positive sign for Pesevento's turn date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 13, 2009 Report Share Posted January 13, 2009 the selling from 50.50 to current 37 was so agressive and so fast, that i am in doubt that it is the classic wave 1-2-3-4-5 structure. because if the first wave is of 13 bucks, then the fifth would go to around .... zero ? Then, maybe we are still doing the abc on the move from 110 to 35, and currently on the B leg down (which can go a bit lower than 35, to say 32). If that is true, the C leg will be up, and we would go to 50 again, and maybe even 55. I have no idea how this could be in sync with the current leg down on the DOW to 6500 target to be hit in february and the rally on the dollar, but i will give this count a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted January 13, 2009 Report Share Posted January 13, 2009 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 13, 2009 Report Share Posted January 13, 2009 oil update: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...aily-0113-1.png http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...weekly-0113.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 14, 2009 Report Share Posted January 14, 2009 oil update: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...aily-0113-1.png http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...weekly-0113.png forgot to add, i expect it to confirm 35 level either wednessday or thursday. also if we hit 32 I still do not invalidate rally to 45 because, this would be a double bottom considering we had 32 low on december's contract Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 forgot to add, i expect it to confirm 35 level either wednessday or thursday. also if we hit 32 I still do not invalidate rally to 45 because, this would be a double bottom considering we had 32 low on december's contract i think oil would not go lower than 35.50 anymore and would go to 43 at least, however we have to watch for any surprise on the ECB meeting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 37 does not hold,i think break of 35 is very possible, maybe friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 Or maybe Thursday. As I look oil has broken to $34.60. (Although Brent is much higher). There are still a few days to the end of the Feb contract. Next Wed I think. Might shoot down from here. Although the inauguration of a new President next Tuesday may affect the markets. (do you think it worth investing in a March contract now, as that is trading much higher @ $42. There are only 5 weeks to its expiry. Do you think they will have sorted out their storage problems by then? Not a bad bet to have. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 Or maybe Thursday. As I look oil has broken to $34.60. (Although Brent is much higher). There are still a few days to the end of the Feb contract. Next Wed I think. Might shoot down from here. Although the inauguration of a new President next Tuesday may affect the markets. (do you think it worth investing in a March contract now, as that is trading much higher @ $42. There are only 5 weeks to its expiry. Do you think they will have sorted out their storage problems by then? Not a bad bet to have. ) yep, i bet it is over, buy oil right now (33.40) , stop 32 target 43 next week. sorry, can't tell you about march contract, i think time for investing is in feb. and right now if for trading short term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 15, 2009 Report Share Posted January 15, 2009 yep, i bet it is over, i mean, the selloff is over, now we should rally, tomorrow retests Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted January 17, 2009 Report Share Posted January 17, 2009 Or maybe Thursday. As I look oil has broken to $34.60. (Although Brent is much higher). There are still a few days to the end of the Feb contract. Next Wed I think. Might shoot down from here. Although the inauguration of a new President next Tuesday may affect the markets. (do you think it worth investing in a March contract now, as that is trading much higher @ $42. There are only 5 weeks to its expiry. Do you think they will have sorted out their storage problems by then? Not a bad bet to have. ) fwiw, I’ve gone short on the March contract. Problems between Israel/Gaza and Russia/Ukraine should settle down a bit IMO and bring prices down. I’ve got 38 as my target with a stop loss at 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted January 17, 2009 Report Share Posted January 17, 2009 no, i don't take news into the account, i have been researching about this, and i found this interesting documental called history's hidden engine , http://www.socionomics.net/history/ , which prooves that news are only impulsive reactions that follow main trend. So, my art is pretty easy actually, my task is to find pattern in the chart, and use them to predict what can happen in the future. And you not only have to use Elliot Wave, but you can use any pattern, geometrical, matematical (like for example, "if oil is down for 7 consecutive days, then buy") , and etc. So, forget about the news, it is much easier than you think. But do you not worry you are just reading a pattern into the chart rather than seeing something objective? How often is this supposed pattern mirrored or continued in the chart after a lapsed period of time? Not often I think. And then if occasionally surely more due to chance than a real pattern. Surely, the macro economic situation has as much to say about where the price of oil is going an erratic line on a chart. For example, if we are in a continued period of deflation, we should see oil overall head lower... perhaps to $25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted January 17, 2009 Report Share Posted January 17, 2009 fwiw, I’ve gone short on the March contract. Problems between Israel/Gaza and Russia/Ukraine should settle down a bit IMO and bring prices down. I’ve got 38 as my target with a stop loss at 47 Contract ending and Gaza ceasefire is a heady mix as we enter the week. The only fly in the ointment is that when the stock markets rally, oil seems to too...and with the inauguration taking place Tuesday and a whirlwind of government bank initiatives over the weekend, who knows what will happen. Anyway, I'm long stocks (for a temporary bounce) and short oil so I'm probably asking the impossible. By the way, another approach would be to take advantage of the contango (if it's still there) and just let the contract expire rather than getting out at a target. I'll let you know how this approach works this month. It's not a lot so I am happy to take risks. Lastly, although the Feb contract ended up Friday, the volumes were lower than they have been in the previous days falls. Buyers and sellers playing chicken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted January 17, 2009 Report Share Posted January 17, 2009 Contract ending and Gaza ceasefire is a heady mix as we enter the week. The only fly in the ointment is that when the stock markets rally, oil seems to too...and with the inauguration taking place Tuesday and a whirlwind of government bank initiatives over the weekend, who knows what will happen. Anyway, I'm long stocks (for a temporary bounce) and short oil so I'm probably asking the impossible. By the way, another approach would be to take advantage of the contango (if it's still there) and just let the contract expire rather than getting out at a target. I'll let you know how this approach works this month. It's not a lot so I am happy to take risks. Lastly, although the Feb contract ended up Friday, the volumes were lower than they have been in the previous days falls. Buyers and sellers playing chicken? On Capital Spreads, the price shot up in the last few minutes of the feb contract. Unfortunately*, I bailed out earlier in the day having made a small profit. I’m long on stocks and short on oil too. I’m trying to make a few quid in the volatility. I tend to lose money when I get greedy. I’m happy if I can make £5 for five minutes work. *I was long on oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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