$200, $400 Oil by end of 2009, and 2010-12, respectively

[kernull]

more thoughts on 55 bottom, rather than 50, 51, 51.50 or other numbers,

when we ran from 20 to 150, the last distance to run from 140 to 150 was of 10 bucks

we know that middle points are often reversal points. so, the middle point

for reversal was 145, but market went higher 2 bucks and made a high to 147 + cents

this was extreme buying.

now we are in the downtrend, and the same apply in the other direction, our target is to test 50,

but we should get a reversal at the middle point, 55, but again, as extreme

selling may happen, we could get a low to 52 + cents, but not lower than that,

this is the best buy zone, but the average trading range should be

around 55 +/- few cents

going lower than 52.50 (at least on the next week) could mean that 50 is not the bottom

[drbubb]

OIH is predicting a rally in Oil (USO)

 

See OIH vs. USO ... update

 

 

...or so it would seem

 

Room for a (slightly) lower low in WTI Crude

[drbubb]

Jan. USO Calls ======== Bid / Offer

 

UBOAL 15.20 ======== 13.80 14.30 56.00 38.00

UBOAM 13.60 +0.10 10.00 13.00 13.50 22.00 39.00

USOAH 12.90 ======== 12.30 12.80 92.00 40.00

[drbubb]

This chart - of the WTI-to-Gold ratio

...suggests you should be shifting from "expensive" Gold into "cheap" Oil.

 

I am calling for a possible Major Low in oil within a few days, and a few dollars.

 

THE CALL is on this thread:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5014

[kernull]

[drbubb]

I am calling for a possible Major Low in oil within a few days, and a few dollars.

 

THE CALL is on this thread:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5014

 

I bought a large number of calls on Oil-related stocks on Wednesday,

and am feeling a bit triumphant this morning, after the big JUMP in oil stocks on Thursday.

 

The LOW is IN! I reckon

[kernull]

[littledavesab]

But, perhaps the U.K. should look upon the contents of the report as an opportunity and not a sentencing.

It is also an opportunity if UK/US will take it and I am guessing they have something like a 2 year window, to enter into some longer term deals on oil supply.

 

By doing so, Uk/US etc could guarantee some project that will otherwise get scrapped a tthis low oil price but can secure future oil supplies.

 

I very much doubt however that Uk/US will even consider this idea. Oh well.

[littledavesab]

Wonders what charting software Ker uses to be able to type comments etc like he does?

[kernull]

Wonders what charting software Ker uses to be able to type comments etc like he does?

 

Photoshop hehehe

Well, no true, i use open source, it is called GIMP, http://www.gimp.org/

you can do it in any software where you can draw lines and put text

[cells]

Maybe it was a bubble after all.

 

 

 

No shit.....

 

the price of oil goes from $60 to $145 in 18 months with NO decrease in supply and NO increase in demand and you lot harp on about oil at $500 come 2009

 

[cells]

If oil hits its inflation adjusted 90s medium then it would be worth a bet.

 

That equals $30-40

At $20 go all in

[kernull]

If oil hits its inflation adjusted 90s medium then it would be worth a bet.

 

That equals $30-40

At $20 go all in

 

38 is it

 

 

 

edit: and looks like i missed it on the bottom again!

[chazza]

No shit.....

 

the price of oil goes from $60 to $145 in 18 months with NO decrease in supply and NO increase in demand and you lot harp on about oil at $500 come 2009

 

Ballsy call, though you are a few months too late.

[drbubb]

the price of oil goes from $60 to $145 in 18 months with NO decrease in supply and NO increase in demand and you lot harp on about oil at $500 come 2009

 

??

Who said that.

My forecast remains $400 in 2010-12. But what will the dollar be worth then?

 

[Justin Thyme]

??

Who said that.

My forecast remains $400 in 2010-12. But what will the dollar be worth then?

 

Curious as to whether you still think we're approaching a bottom in the oil price ? OPEC's set to meet next week, I think. Estimates range from 1m to 2.3m bopd cut in production but market's most likely priced in 1.5m . . .

 

[kernull]

oil could go lower than 38 as i originaly thought:

 

 

[mattyboy]

Guys - this has probably been discussed somewhere on here before, but if you believe in a) peak oil and USD decline then an obvious trade now has to be long dated, far out of the money call options. Dec10 calls on Nymex look good for a low risk punt - something really crazy like $250 calls settled yesterday at $40 - that's $40 for the right to buy 1000 barrels of oil for $250 anytime between now and dec10 (correct me if I am wrong but I believe these are US style options). $780 will get you the $150 calls. This seems like a crazy bargain to me, a few of these buy-and-forget for a while, if USD takes the tumble we think it will and oil bounces back..

[kernull]

[GTG]

In a morning star pattern I thought the body of the 2nd (middle) candle had to be below and clear of the first ;-)?

 

Is that the charting package of your broker Ker?

[kernull]

In a morning star pattern I thought the body of the 2nd (middle) candle had to be below and clear of the first ;-)?

 

Is that the charting package of your broker Ker?

 

well, it is not a morning star yet, so, maybe it is just a normal inside day up. but I am anticipating of what may happen. also, it is not necesarily to be a perfect morning star, with a close higher than 53 we have a bottom anyway

 

I use GIMP (http://www.gimp.org) for charts, but you can use Photoshop

[GTG]

well, it is not a morning star yet, so, maybe it is just a normal inside day up. but I am anticipating of what may happen. also, it is not necesarily to be a perfect morning star, with a close higher than 53 we have a bottom anyway

 

I use GIMP (http://www.gimp.org) for charts, but you can use Photoshop

 

What about the charts themselves?

 

[kernull]

What about the charts themselves?

 

ohh , i grab them from my broker's application and also from websites out there

[hotairmail]

Are you buying into oil now then Ker?

 

Excellent chart by the way. I had bought LOIL on Friday a.m. based on the fact that confidence was so low in the markets and reasoning that with an ETF at this level if it touches $70 over 3 years say, that would be an 80% return with LOIL.

 

But after the Dow rose Friday night and reading much other stuff over the weekend including seeing your charts, I decided to buy more Monday a.m. Happy so far but know full well any gains can be very quickly reversed.

 

I'm not a chartist but like reading your annotated charts that combine ta with a wider view.

[ziknik]

Are you buying into oil now then Ker?

 

Excellent chart by the way. I had bought LOIL on Friday a.m. based on the fact that confidence was so low in the markets and reasoning that with an ETF at this level if it touches $70 over 3 years say, that would be an 80% return with LOIL.

 

But after the Dow rose Friday night and reading much other stuff over the weekend including seeing your charts, I decided to buy more Monday a.m. Happy so far but know full well any gains can be very quickly reversed.

 

I'm not a chartist but like reading your annotated charts that combine ta with a wider view.

 

I take it you've sold your SOIL? You must have done well out of that