kernull Posted January 26, 2009 Report Share Posted January 26, 2009 short on crude, waiting for 25 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviathan Posted January 26, 2009 Report Share Posted January 26, 2009 Ker Have been very interested by your posts and the accuracy of many of your predictions. What ETF or product do you use to short crude? Lev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 26, 2009 Report Share Posted January 26, 2009 Ker Have been very interested by your posts and the accuracy of many of your predictions. What ETF or product do you use to short crude? Lev thank you. well market went higher than my stop was, 48.50 doesn't look to me like a top resistance level , 49 is. not sure if they toped or not, but on break of 45.50 downtrend would be confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 26, 2009 Report Share Posted January 26, 2009 What ETF or product do you use to short crude? i use futures contracts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 26, 2009 Report Share Posted January 26, 2009 potential shooting star pattern on the daily, i think crude is done here, upside could be random, 46.20 in the best case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 27, 2009 Report Share Posted January 27, 2009 crude is painting a triangle reversal, move down on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted January 27, 2009 Report Share Posted January 27, 2009 http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/27...-into-oil-etfs/ Great graph in the link worth a look. ‘Unprecedented’ inflows into oil ETFs Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Jan 27 08:52. Goldman Sachs’ energy analysts are the latest to warn of the unprecedented inflows into oil ETFs in their most recent research note. In fact they attribute the small spike in oil prices in the last few weeks largely to this, a US cold snap, storage demand for products, fuel switching and a spike in refining margins. Most interestingly, however, the Goldman oil bulls believe the spike is only transient as most of these factors are likely to reverse in the near term, hence they do not believe it represents the impending end to the current bear market (which they are still expecting before the end of the year). The above certainly fits their view that the new bullish cycle will only reappear when the contango flattens out, in itself only likely to happen when most spare production (most likely from non-Opec producers) is brought offline. Needless to say their warning about ETFs is particularly interesting. They believe it is only now that most of the investors that have piled into oil funds thinking the commodity was cheap will begin to realise the losses they are experiencing on the “negative roll“. As Goldman explain (our emphasis): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 28, 2009 Report Share Posted January 28, 2009 oil could have a relief rally today, but this will not be a trend reversal, we are going to 25 (unless 45.50 is broken) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted January 29, 2009 Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 Thought you might like this Ker. http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/28/h...edicts-trouble/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 29, 2009 Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 Thought you might like this Ker. http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/28/h...edicts-trouble/ hehe. i know. and this will prop up bonds to new highs. i am short dow since yesterdays close, and long bond, they bottomed today, and will rally tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted January 29, 2009 Report Share Posted January 29, 2009 hehe. i know. and this will prop up bonds to new highs. i am short dow since yesterdays close, and long bond, they bottomed today, and will rally tomorrow I shorted the Dow last night too. Great minds think alike I thought today’s unemployment figures would have taken 300 off the Dow today but it hasn’t done. There’s a GDP estimate out tomorrow. It should be horrific. Might take 500 off the Dow. My target is 7,500. with stop loss at 9,100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted February 1, 2009 Report Share Posted February 1, 2009 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...-the-curve.html On the dubious side - just be careful it's by Ambrose Evans Pritchard WEF 2009: BP sees further crash in oil demand, OPEC behind the curve The worldwide recession is likely cause a far deeper slump in demand for crude oil this year than recognized so far by the OPEC cartel, according to BP's chief executive Tony Hayward. "Things depend entirely on the global economy and success in resolving the banking crisis, but the pessimistic view is that there will be no growth in the world this year. Demand loss of perhaps 1m barrels per day is likely," he said, addressing an energy panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Abdalla El Badri, OPEC's secretary-general, said the group of oil exporters is expecting further "demand destruction" of just 200,000 barrels per day this year. If Mr Hayward is right, the supply glut on the market will almost certainly push oil prices even lower in coming months – perhaps below $30, as Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch both now expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 1, 2009 Report Share Posted February 1, 2009 If Mr Hayward is right, the supply glut on the market will almost certainly push oil prices even lower in coming months – perhaps below $30, as Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch both now expect. yes, it is going to 25 and then we will see if it goes to 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 1, 2009 Report Share Posted February 1, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 5, 2009 Report Share Posted February 5, 2009 tomorrow (thursday) is set as a big downday for crude. (i have no target for the move, but it will be down) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted February 5, 2009 Report Share Posted February 5, 2009 tomorrow (thursday) is set as a big downday for crude. (i have no target for the move, but it will be down) It's not happned Ker. Do you think tommorrow (friday) could be a big down day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 6, 2009 Report Share Posted February 6, 2009 It's not happned Ker. Do you think tommorrow (friday) could be a big down day? yes, they did it today, and confirmed trend to 25 by breaking below 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted February 6, 2009 Report Share Posted February 6, 2009 yes, they did it today, and confirmed trend to 25 by breaking below 40 There was a bit of a breakout a few minutes after your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 6, 2009 Report Share Posted February 6, 2009 There was a bit of a breakout a few minutes after your post this is a dead cat bounce, not a breakout, pure gambling by speculators on no volume, stay away from this games, we are going to 25 , trend starts next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted February 6, 2009 Report Share Posted February 6, 2009 this is a dead cat bounce, not a breakout, pure gambling by speculators on no volume, stay away from this games, we are going to 25 , trend starts next week I'm staying away from oil altogether right now. That dead cat scared me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 8, 2009 Report Share Posted February 8, 2009 I'm staying away from oil altogether right now. That dead cat scared me a little change in plans, but after we test the highs, we should go to 25 and then posibly to 18: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...l-4hrs-0207.png http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...weekly-0207.png http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...onthly-0207.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted February 9, 2009 Report Share Posted February 9, 2009 Enjoy low oil prices while you can: guru Barry Critchley, Financial Post Published: Saturday, February 07, 2009 Henry Groppe, founder of Houston-based Groppe, Long & Littell, is 83 years old, a vegetarian and has been a forecaster in the oil and gas business since 1955. And he is not afraid to go against the conventional wisdom. One year back he predicted the oil price would collapse in the second half of the year -- and not reach the much talked-about price of US$200 a barrel. Now Groppe, a special advisor to the Toronto-based Middlefield group of companies, has done his analysis and concluded that between now and year end the price of oil will double. If that forecast pans out, oil will hit US$80 a barrel, or more than double what others are predicting. His advice to consumers: Enjoy the current low gas prices, because they won't last for much longer. http://www.financialpost.com/analysis/stor...7f-3a43db9318c8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 9, 2009 Report Share Posted February 9, 2009 a little change in plans, but after we test the highs, we should go to 25 and then posibly to 18: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...l-4hrs-0207.png http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...weekly-0207.png http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...onthly-0207.png pathetic rally. not sure where-to now, looks like inside day, but down is likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 9, 2009 Report Share Posted February 9, 2009 http://www.financialpost.com/analysis/stor...7f-3a43db9318c8 i can see oil going to 72 easily by year end, but 20s first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted February 10, 2009 Report Share Posted February 10, 2009 Ker - These are my thoughts. What do you think? I've placed a buy order at 38, target = 41, stoploss = 36. Don't worry about influencing me, I’m not going to change my mind. I can afford my potential losses ** ** EDIT: cos i've made a killing on the Dow today EDIT: Those are 1 hour candles. Ignore the time frame, I think the bottom will be at 15:00 tommorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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