kernull Posted February 11, 2009 Report Share Posted February 11, 2009 Ker - These are my thoughts. What do you think? i took crude long today, i think we will go to 45, because the dow also wants to go to 8600. stop below 35.50. and after that to 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 well, the awaited bounce in the stocks & oil didn't happen as expected. now i will give them a last chance to go up tomorrow, if the dow goes up above 8050 we will have bounce in oil, but i doubt it, so, highly possible we plunge hard next week towards 6000 dow and 25 oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 well, the awaited bounce in the stocks & oil didn't happen as expected. now i will give them a last chance to go up tomorrow, if the dow goes up above 8050 we will have bounce in oil, but i doubt it, so, highly possible we plunge hard next week towards 6000 dow and 25 oil Seemed like an impressive rally in the last hour last night. Without that, think the TA pointed firmly lower. Saying that, even with the last hour rally.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Seemed like an impressive rally in the last hour last night. Without that, think the TA pointed firmly lower. Saying that, even with the last hour rally.... yeah, this rally looks more like an A of an ABC up, rather than a good trend up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 yeah, this rally looks more like an A of an ABC up, rather than a good trend up I'm thinking more of an E of a correcting triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 well, the awaited bounce in the stocks & oil didn't happen as expected. now i will give them a last chance to go up tomorrow, if the dow goes up above 8050 we will have bounce in oil, but i doubt it, so, highly possible we plunge hard next week towards 6000 dow and 25 oil amazing bounce to 38 , but , no, i don't see any bullishness in oil next week. i see new lows. Front page on CNBC.com like "OIL at 25" "Stocks plunge to its lowest levels since ....[put your favorite timeframe here]" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted February 18, 2009 Report Share Posted February 18, 2009 http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/02/18...he-oil-markets/ A ‘cancer’ in the oil markets? Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Feb 18 13:46. Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix has commendably taken a strong stance against the USO ETF fund over the last few weeks, or rather, exposed to what degree the fund’s market inexperience is causing all sorts of mayhem for the WTI contract. All of this, he says, is because the fund has now achieved ‘’critical mass’. Unsurprisingly, his Wednesday note shows a similarly strong view: Despite the flat price weakness on crude oil, the contango on the expiring spread continues to narrow, in a pattern very similar to the previous expiry. The convergence of the expiring contract is now being done pre-expiry on a narrowing of the spread rather than post-expiry on a flat price basis. This re-enforces our view that the extreme contango on the WTI contract is primarily due to market distortions created by the USO WTI ETF. This cancer to the oil markets is however not yet over as positions in the USO were increased further yesterday and now reach 93′000 WTI April Futures contract. Read in first on Petromatrix: in our weekly note of Feb 9th we advised that passive investors ought to be overweight oil equities/underweight the WTI ETF. Goldman Sachs has put out this week a research note advising clients to be overweight commodity equities/underweight the commodity, but they are not yet mentioning the distortions created by the ETF on the WTI markets. In a separate note, Goldman has advised taking profit on the short flat price at the back of the curve and turning instead to buying the long dated spreads Dec9/Dec11. Jakob certainly has a point. What’s more, it is becoming increasingly obvious that investors in the fund are really confused on the matter of contango and how it affects them. The point they need to understand is that oil is not cheap even at these levels if they are holding the position long-term and losing successively on the rolls. Note here the fund’s performance, which shows a 22 per cent decline in the month of December. Crude fell in December but not quite as much as that. Of course it’s got worse. Yesterday alone the fund was down 8.3 per cent, while WTI itself was down 6.88 per cent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 23, 2009 Report Share Posted February 23, 2009 well, the awaited bounce in the stocks & oil didn't happen as expected. now i will give them a last chance to go up tomorrow, if the dow goes up above 8050 we will have bounce in oil, but i doubt it, so, highly possible we plunge hard next week towards 6000 dow and 25 oil i transfer this call for this week and some part of next week. i am still not buying crude, waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 25, 2009 Report Share Posted February 25, 2009 i transfer this call for this week and some part of next week. i am still not buying crude, waiting. another amazing rally, but i am still waiting for my 25 oil (or maybe 22) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 25, 2009 Report Share Posted February 25, 2009 oil right now (42.25) is at a good short position. the 42.50 support line is what divides a rally to 50s from a plunge to 20s. geometrically (in 5 min chart) it just got out of a rising wedge and not broke up. stop 43.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 26, 2009 Report Share Posted February 26, 2009 oil right now (42.25) is at a good short position. the 42.50 support line is what divides a rally to 50s from a plunge to 20s. geometrically (in 5 min chart) it just got out of a rising wedge and not broke up. stop 43.00 i will try to short at 45 for the last time, if it breaks it, i will have to forget the idea of 20 oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ret45 Posted February 26, 2009 Report Share Posted February 26, 2009 i will try to short at 45 for the last time, if it breaks it, i will have to forget the idea of 20 oil finally! you've been putting off the rest of us who thought $35 oil was a good time to jump in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 26, 2009 Report Share Posted February 26, 2009 i will try to short at 45 for the last time, if it breaks it, i will have to forget the idea of 20 oil well, sell limit order hit, now wating for 25 to cover. stop 45.65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted February 26, 2009 Report Share Posted February 26, 2009 finally! you've been putting off the rest of us who thought $35 oil was a good time to jump in... well, tbond today confirmed deflation supporting 125 level, so 25-22 oil is nothing unreal , provided that dollar can hit 92 and higher with coming selloff in the dow to 6000/5500 but if it gets to 17.50, it will be the best bargain ever , specialy long term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seekingclarity Posted February 26, 2009 Report Share Posted February 26, 2009 finally! you've been putting off the rest of us who thought $35 oil was a good time to jump in... why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted February 27, 2009 Report Share Posted February 27, 2009 http://v2.ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/02...ng-uso-oil-etf/ Regulator probing USO oil ETF Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Feb 27 09:22. The FT is reporting on Friday, along with all the other wires, that the CFTC is investigating the United States Oil Fund: US federal regulators are investigating an investment vehicle that has amassed a 20 per cent stake in a crude oil contract traded in New York and London amid fears that its activities could be distorting the market. The Commodity Futures Trade Commission is investigating the United States Oil Fund, an exchange-traded fund listed in New York, after its size surged in the past three months to 95,000 lots on the West Texas Intermediate contract for immediate delivery. Stephen Schork of the Schork report, who has criticised the fund’s position in his most recent editions, says this on the matter: Thanks to knock-on momentum from Wednesday’s post DOE rally, spot NYMEX crude oil for April delivery closed above $45 for the first time in two weeks on Thursday. However, last night word broke of the CFTC’s probe of the USO. There is no debate; the USO artificially impacted the Mar/Apr roll. If the CFTC does its job that is the conclusion it will come to. But, given what a crack job government regulatory bodies did in policing Madoff, we suppose anything is possible. Meanwhile, another day, another structured reverse convertible product issued to the market linked to the ETF. This one from JP Morgan, according to SEC filings. FT Alphaville has been reporting on the rise of these structured products issued by banks since last December 2008. The products, which have mostly been short-term securities offering attractive coupons, effectively provide banks with downside protection on exposure to the USO. They do so by playing the volatility of the Oil Fund’s volatility measure the OVX. To read more about how they work click here. The size of the ETF’s position in April WTI Nymex has meanwhile slightly fallen back since Thursday to 59,495 contracts versus 60,656. The fund is set to begin its roll into the May contract next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 here is my take on oil http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=99082 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted March 2, 2009 Report Share Posted March 2, 2009 well, tbond today confirmed deflation supporting 125 level, so 25-22 oil is nothing unreal , provided that dollar can hit 92 and higher with coming selloff in the dow to 6000/5500 but if it gets to 17.50, it will be the best bargain ever , specialy long term Someone else planning for lower oil Gazprom is prepared to adjust the budget and the investing program in 2009: the Russian gas monopolist plans to implement only economically feasible projects, if oil prices plunge to $25 per barrel. Earlier made most pessimistic forecasts have never predicted oil prices lower than $32. The Russian government is adjusting the federal budget based on $41 per barrel. These days Gazprom has to cut the amount of its investment programs from 920.5 billion rubles to 713 billion rubles amid the global financial crisis. http://www.russia-ic.com/news/show/7859/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 5, 2009 Report Share Posted March 5, 2009 current 45.46 crude is at the line dividing bull and bear trend. going above -> 62 , below - 25 it also may trade range between 45 and 42 withiout decision during the rest of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 5, 2009 Report Share Posted March 5, 2009 current 45.46 crude is at the line dividing bull and bear trend. going above -> 62 , below - 25 it also may trade range between 45 and 42 without decision during the rest of the week next key point support in crude is 42.50 , if we break it we are going to go to 25 non-stop. i still think 25 oil is in the cards and if we get it, get ready for a big rally of +40 bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 5, 2009 Report Share Posted March 5, 2009 it also may trade range between 45 and 42 withiout decision during the rest of the week ok, this is likely to be the case: we selloff to 42.00-41 from today to tomorrow. and then late friday, we bring it up to 43.50 or around, and next week start selling again to 25 (thursday-friday: first wave + second wave; next week: third wave) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 5, 2009 Report Share Posted March 5, 2009 oil still bearish http://blogs.moneyandmarkets.com/red-hot-e...sh-on-the-oils/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 5, 2009 Report Share Posted March 5, 2009 Bullish Oil: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...503-bullish.png Bearish Oil: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...503-bearish.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted March 6, 2009 Report Share Posted March 6, 2009 doesn't look logical to rally in crude yet ahead of more selling in the stock markets, but it can rally to 50 (oil can do anything): http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...-daily-0306.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ret45 Posted March 6, 2009 Report Share Posted March 6, 2009 doesn't look logical to rally in crude yet ahead of more selling in the stock markets, but it can rally to 50 (oil can do anything): http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...-daily-0306.png Not to have a go at you Ker. But if oil can "do anything", what the hell use is TA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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