hotairmail Posted January 18, 2009 Report Share Posted January 18, 2009 On Capital Spreads, the price shot up in the last few minutes of the feb contract. Unfortunately*, I bailed out earlier in the day having made a small profit. I’m long on stocks and short on oil too. I’m trying to make a few quid in the volatility. I tend to lose money when I get greedy. I’m happy if I can make £5 for five minutes work. *I was long on oil Ah I missed that. I thought it was the new contract after expiry of the old. So if you were looking at the 'daily' price (as I was) it would have moved from one to the other. Are you sure you were actually looking at that month's contract consistently. Or were you looking at the daily price? By the way I think I said the contract expries 21st earlier. I've just checked they say the 'last dealing time' is 20th @ 19.30. Is that your info too for expiry of the contract? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted January 18, 2009 Report Share Posted January 18, 2009 This really is announcement weekend. On top of Gaza we now have... Russia and Ukraine reach gas deal By Isabel Gorst in Moscow and Roman Olearchyk in Kiev Published: January 18 2009 09:52 | Last updated: January 18 2009 10:24 Russia and Ukraine agreed a preliminary deal early on Sunday that should allow Russian gas deliveries to Europe to resume on Monday after a 12-day cut off. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bdae775a-e543-11...00779fd2ac.html And we also have the US release of further TARP funds and the UK bank insurance deal. Hell, if this doesn't have at least a short term effect, what will? And could we have the unlikely stocks rise whilst oil goes? The Russian and Gaza news suggests it could do - but it might be outweighed by a more optimistic view on the economy. But with the contract expiry there is also the issue of actually taking delivery. Very, very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted January 19, 2009 Report Share Posted January 19, 2009 Well stocks and bank shares certainly didn't move the way I thought. Anyway, oil still looking promising for tomorrow....I just got a message on my answer phone from igIndex seeing if I wanted to rollover the contract. I take that as a good sign Ziknik. My limit is $28. Think I'll have to come out a little earlier than the end of the contract given your email, and unless you respond to my email above re what contract you were looking at.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 19, 2009 Report Share Posted January 19, 2009 Well stocks and bank shares certainly didn't move the way I thought. Anyway, oil still looking promising for tomorrow....I just got a message on my answer phone from igIndex seeing if I wanted to rollover the contract. I take that as a good sign Ziknik. My limit is $28. Think I'll have to come out a little earlier than the end of the contract given your email, and unless you respond to my email above re what contract you were looking at.. i expect high volatility tomorrow, but only to take shorts for 20 target Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted January 19, 2009 Report Share Posted January 19, 2009 i expect high volatility tomorrow, but only to take shorts for 20 target Wow. $20 target. I might have to change my limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted January 19, 2009 Report Share Posted January 19, 2009 Ah I missed that. I thought it was the new contract after expiry of the old. So if you were looking at the 'daily' price (as I was) it would have moved from one to the other. Are you sure you were actually looking at that month's contract consistently. Or were you looking at the daily price? By the way I think I said the contract expries 21st earlier. I've just checked they say the 'last dealing time' is 20th @ 19.30. Is that your info too for expiry of the contract? Capital spreads is a bit odd because the Feb contracts expired last week. I'm not sure why it expired early. The March Contract will expire on the 17 of Feb at 19:30. It looks like I will never be able to hold a contract until *real* expiry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted January 19, 2009 Report Share Posted January 19, 2009 Well stocks and bank shares certainly didn't move the way I thought. Anyway, oil still looking promising for tomorrow....I just got a message on my answer phone from igIndex seeing if I wanted to rollover the contract. I take that as a good sign Ziknik. My limit is $28. Think I'll have to come out a little earlier than the end of the contract given your email, and unless you respond to my email above re what contract you were looking at.. Hold on, don’t do anything based on anything I wrote. I don’t really know what I am doing and I’m using a second rate spreadbetting platform. When the Feb Contract expired on Capital Spreads (17th at 19:30) the price shot up 100 pips and the March Contract fell by around 50 pips. I was long on Feb at the time but I bailed out in the last hour to go short on March and missed the 100 pip gain (I made 50 pips down for March ) I made a small profit on my Feb long. I’ve still got my March short open. I've made 200 pips if I cash in now. I sold my Dow Jones long this morning and took a small profit. Almost perfect timing (at 8:00 am), more luck than anything else. I sold the Dow, with the intention of going long on Barclays and then I changed my mind when I saw Barclays rising (i thought I'd missed the upside). I went short on Sterling VS Euro instead (at 8:30 am) which worked out well for me . I’ve still got the position open and intend to hold this until we test the lows. I’m on a bit of a winning streak at the moment. This may all go wrong soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted January 20, 2009 Report Share Posted January 20, 2009 I’m moving my stop loss to lock-in a small profit. I've got rid of my limit. I’m going long on the Dow with the change. I’ve bought Dow at 8254, limit at 8304. I’m happy if I can make 50 pips in the volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted January 20, 2009 Report Share Posted January 20, 2009 Ha. That experiment didn't go very well. Got knocked out in the volatility as Ker said. I was planning on the other sort of volatility. Goes to show that history doesn't repeat. As far as I can tell, it doesn't even bloody rhyme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 20, 2009 Report Share Posted January 20, 2009 i think we are ready to go for 20 level, i dont think we will break it, so safe target would be 25.50, and 22.50 as a maximum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted January 20, 2009 Report Share Posted January 20, 2009 Ha. That experiment didn't go very well. Got knocked out in the volatility as Ker said. I was planning on the other sort of volatility. ... It's been a crazy day with the currencies and gold too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 i see the stock market is setting up a mini rally, so i think it is not the time to short oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/how-low-can-oil-go-3-29361 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 we are playing "the jump" scenario, as on this chart: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...aily-0113-1.png we should not pass the toping line, therefore, this is the entry point for a short position, not sure which day it will be (this week and maybe extend to the beginning of the next week), but after that day i expect strong selling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 we are playing "the jump" scenario, as on this chart: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...aily-0113-1.png we should not pass the toping line, therefore, this is the entry point for a short position, not sure which day it will be (this week and maybe extend to the beginning of the next week), but after that day i expect strong selling The degree of variation in the price I've noticed on this as well as other stocks such as BLND does not seem to reduce markedly as the price declines. So moves of + or - $10 on oil still hold true at $140 or $35. Clearly as a % this makes the investment far more volatile - both more lucrative but also more dangerous. This would mean the opportunity to make money rises exponentially towards the bottom. What do you think Ker? And if true in your view, why would this be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 This would mean the opportunity to make money rises exponentially towards the bottom. usually when volatility changes, that means a trend change, and you said it, volatility is the same, so bottom is still to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 i took a long on oil at 41.05, i think it is going to 47, stop 40.40 looking to reverse the trade by monday for a run to 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 i took a long on oil at 41.05, i think it is going to 47, stop 40.40 looking to reverse the trade by monday for a run to 25 I'm waiting for $25 too. Sean Brodrick or Here (audio) thinks it might hit 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 I'm waiting for $25 too. Sean Brodrick or Here (audio) thinks it might hit 17 if it breaks below the channel line, it is going to be a false break downwards, and a screaming buy. i will be loading up big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 if it breaks below the channel line, it is going to be a false break downwards, and a screaming buy. i will be loading up big time I said that when it broke $90...and then $50.. Patience is a virtue Lots of volume at the moment, 5 times as much since last year on the USO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 I said that when it broke $90...and then $50.. Patience is a virtue Lots of volume at the moment, 5 times as much since last year on the USO this time it is different! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 this time it is different! just kidding, yes it can go to 10, of course, but probabilities are on the side that we are going to go up for half year from this bottom in february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 23, 2009 Report Share Posted January 23, 2009 i closed my crude long because there is a high probability that we could have a big downday today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 23, 2009 Report Share Posted January 23, 2009 crude hit my 47 target, monday (or sunday opening) is the time to take short to 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted January 25, 2009 Report Share Posted January 25, 2009 http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...onthly-0124.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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