romans holiday Posted November 25, 2008 Report Share Posted November 25, 2008 ?? Who said that. My forecast remains $400 in 2010-12. But what will the dollar be worth then? A four hundredth of a barrel of oil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted November 25, 2008 Report Share Posted November 25, 2008 I take it you've sold your SOIL? You must have done well out of that Do you remember that - yes it was a fantastic return over a very short timescale. Doesn't happen to me very often. Of course I sold out too early. Initially bought at $105 and $1.85 to the pound. I made a return of about 60% overall - which is good but I'm kicking myself for not doubling that because it did double from where I initially invested. Prices are a funny thing - one moment they look far too unreasonable if you've got to them quickly, and then people get used to them. The most important decider of fair value is what the price previously was and it takes a little time to cement itself into people's heads. That's my excuse for getting out too early anyway. Also there's tons of stuff around about oil depletion and why oil is going to the moon - that affects your confidence to hold on to a short position too. Similar to the stock markets right now. I've reversed my position on both for the moment - but I'm scared of both positions for different reasons - but not as much as missing out on a bear rally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted November 25, 2008 Report Share Posted November 25, 2008 Do you remember that ... Yes, I looked at the price of oil every day for two months and said, “I wish I bought SOIL like Hotairmail did”. I bought OilB around a month ago and I will be buying more after Christmas. If prices stay like this, I will be buying LOIL too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 25, 2008 Report Share Posted November 25, 2008 Are you buying into oil now then Ker? Excellent chart by the way. I had bought LOIL on Friday a.m. based on the fact that confidence was so low in the markets and reasoning that with an ETF at this level if it touches $70 over 3 years say, that would be an 80% return with LOIL. i was stoped out today, crude made the bottom, im convinced, but it is donig a retest today. will be jumping on it again as soon as i have risk free trades in other positions i currently hold. 48 is not long term bottom however, but it is good to run for 75/72 oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy Posted November 27, 2008 Report Share Posted November 27, 2008 Guys - this has probably been discussed somewhere on here before, but if you believe in a) peak oil and USD decline then an obvious trade now has to be long dated, far out of the money call options. Dec10 calls on Nymex look good for a low risk punt - something really crazy like $250 calls settled yesterday at $40 - that's $40 for the right to buy 1000 barrels of oil for $250 anytime between now and dec10 (correct me if I am wrong but I believe these are US style options). $780 will get you the $150 calls. This seems like a crazy bargain to me, a few of these buy-and-forget for a while, if USD takes the tumble we think it will and oil bounces back.. 250 calls for Dec10 went from $20 to $280 overnight (thats the full cost for the 1000 barrels) - so would have been a good buy even at the $40 they were earlier.. and my optionsXpress a/c I am in the process of opening for precisely this trade isn't active yet! arrgh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 30, 2008 Report Share Posted November 30, 2008 i was stoped out again on friday, and that was enough for me to understand that we are not going anywhere higher than 56 will short it mon/tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted December 1, 2008 Report Share Posted December 1, 2008 Yes - I lost my nerve and sold out of LOIL and moved to the other side. The large increase in stocks in the US last week coupled with the failure of OPEC to cut further this weekend made me move. I am interested in the professed 'target' of $75 the Saudis have stated though (which in turn will undoubtedly be overshot). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 1, 2008 Report Share Posted December 1, 2008 FWIW, I think oil will go to 40 due to continued deflationary pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 FWIW, I think oil will go to 40 due to continued deflationary pressure. I am going to go ahead with my far out of the money call options trade soon I think - although the prices haven't come in much yet I guess it is vol not moneyness that is holding them up there. I don't see the USD lasting 2 years and any weakness will be expressed in oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonc Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 I am going to go ahead with my far out of the money call options trade soon I think - although the prices haven't come in much yet I guess it is vol not moneyness that is holding them up there. I don't see the USD lasting 2 years and any weakness will be expressed in oil. Hi Mattboy, I take it these are the calls you are going to place: Guys - this has probably been discussed somewhere on here before, but if you believe in a) peak oil and USD decline then an obvious trade now has to be long dated, far out of the money call options. Dec10 calls on Nymex look good for a low risk punt - something really crazy like $250 calls settled yesterday at $40 - that's $40 for the right to buy 1000 barrels of oil for $250 anytime between now and dec10 (correct me if I am wrong but I believe these are US style options). $780 will get you the $150 calls. This seems like a crazy bargain to me, a few of these buy-and-forget for a while, if USD takes the tumble we think it will and oil bounces back.. Could you advise a novice on the best way to place a trade like this? Cheers P&tW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 Hi Mattboy, I take it these are the calls you are going to place: Could you advise a novice on the best way to place a trade like this? Cheers P&tW yeah excepth those same calls are now trading for 0.33 which is a near 10 fold increase on the price I quoted in that earlier post. Price went up again last night despite the oil price, so the extreme volatility is pushing up the price. I have an account at optionsXpress which is not yet fully activated, so have not traded options although I do have experience in them at work. I may wait for things to settle down a bit before taking the plunge, I think there'll be a better price at some point. I do think if you genuinely believe in peak oil and USD collapse then it is a no brainer, even just a cheeky couple of grand as a punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted December 3, 2008 Report Share Posted December 3, 2008 if elliot wave is good for anything, then we should not get a low below 40 and this low to be the multiyear low and final oil bottom. (EW: wave 4 should not go below wave 1 , wave 1: 10-38) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonc Posted December 3, 2008 Report Share Posted December 3, 2008 yeah excepth those same calls are now trading for 0.33 which is a near 10 fold increase on the price I quoted in that earlier post. Price went up again last night despite the oil price, so the extreme volatility is pushing up the price. I have an account at optionsXpress which is not yet fully activated, so have not traded options although I do have experience in them at work. I may wait for things to settle down a bit before taking the plunge, I think there'll be a better price at some point. I do think if you genuinely believe in peak oil and USD collapse then it is a no brainer, even just a cheeky couple of grand as a punt. Thanks, I doubt we'll see any impact from peak oil before these calls expire......but the USD collapse, inflation and Geo Politics certainly makes your shout look appealing. The fact that the price has spiked 10 fold might suggest that others would agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted December 3, 2008 Report Share Posted December 3, 2008 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cells Posted December 4, 2008 Report Share Posted December 4, 2008 I am going to go ahead with my far out of the money call options trade soon I think - although the prices haven't come in much yet I guess it is vol not moneyness that is holding them up there. I don't see the USD lasting 2 years and any weakness will be expressed in oil. Where can you get long dated call options?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted December 4, 2008 Report Share Posted December 4, 2008 buy crude tomorrow around unemployment report announcement at 41.20 , target 55.40 , stop 40.40 friday should be the last day for the downside this could be also the multiyear bottom, if we break above 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted December 5, 2008 Report Share Posted December 5, 2008 Worth a read http://www.zapatageorge.com/nobull_report_23.html I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, in round numbers we lost a million bbls. a day in production per quarter going forward from where we are. When you take in all the discoveries, the decline, everything, you will see a decline of a million bbls. a day in production every time a quarter goes by. Does anyone know of any credible sources which counter these views? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted December 5, 2008 Report Share Posted December 5, 2008 Rogers on bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Commodity Fundamentals Are ‘Unimpaired,’ Rogers Says (Update1) By Nigel Stevenson and Brett Foley Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The fundamentals of commodities are “unimpaired” and prices will rebound when a lack of new supply leads to shortages, said Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings. “Commodities will be the place to be if and when we come out of” the downturn, Rogers said yesterday in an interview from Miami. “The only thing where fundamentals are unimpaired are commodities. Farmers cannot get loans for fertilizer now. Nobody can get a loan to open a zinc mine. So we are going to have some serious, serious supply problems before too much longer.” The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities has plunged 53 percent from a record in July on concern that a global recession will sap demand for raw materials. The index almost doubled between its low in 2001 and the end of last year. Rogers said crude oil and agricultural commodities were the most likely to have shortages and the outlook for zinc and cotton had “improved.” “I haven’t sold any commodities since the bull market began,” he said. “I own some gold and if gold goes down I’ll buy some more and if gold goes up I’ll buy some more,” Rogers said. “Gold during the course of the bull market, which has several more years to go, will go much higher.” Gold for immediate delivery has tripled since its low in 2001. It’s still 25 percent below the record $1,032.70 an ounce reached in March. ‘Unfathomable’ Rogers also said that while he owned platinum through index investments, “I’m not buying platinum at the moment.” Platinum, used mostly in jewelry and catalytic converters for cars, has plunged 64 percent since reaching an all-time high of $2,301.50 an ounce in March. Central banks and President-elect Barack Obama should be careful in responding to the global economic slump, Rogers said. “It is astonishing how bad they’re reacting this time. It is unfathomable to me what they’re doing and you think some of them would have read some history,” he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted December 5, 2008 Report Share Posted December 5, 2008 buy crude tomorrow around unemployment report announcement at 41.20 , target 55.40 , stop 40.40 friday should be the last day for the downside this could be also the multiyear bottom, if we break above 55 forget it, not the bottom, good for a bounce, but should go lower after, to around 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibber Posted December 6, 2008 Report Share Posted December 6, 2008 forget it, not the bottom, good for a bounce, but should go lower after, to around 32 Ok. I'm fairly ignorant in the ways of investing in oil. Is there any link out there that explains ETF's? Or should I be looking at other forms of investment. Bit vague I know but I'm not sure what I should really be asking or reading. For example, Call Options? If I think that the likely direction in a year or so is up how do I invest in those? How do I know what is a good price for an Option? How do I learn about these instruments? ETF - don't know what these are. Have seen lots of references to them but no real easy to understand explanation of what they are. Oil Stocks themselves? It may be that someone has come across an "Oil Investing for Beginners" primer or tutorial that explains some of the options. I have read a lot about Oil, Peak Oil etc and now want to understand a bit more about actually investing in Oil itself. Any help would be gratefully received. In the meantime I'll keep bumbling my way around the internet / google. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderer Posted December 7, 2008 Report Share Posted December 7, 2008 I've posted fumbling research on calls on the 56-57 dollar oil low thread in the main section. Let me know what else you find Gibber! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted December 7, 2008 Report Share Posted December 7, 2008 buy crude tomorrow around unemployment report announcement at 41.20 , target 55.40 , stop 40.40 friday should be the last day for the downside this could be also the multiyear bottom, if we break above 55 I'm now hoping it will go all the way to $10. (that seems to be a reasonable support level to your graph Ker) To be followed by costs of production and OPEC squeezing supplies all the way back above $75. There seems to be incredible momentum here supported by deleveraging, demand destruction and de-investing as a result of price falls. I can't help but think that OPEC will naturally end up being behind the curve and will overshoot the $75 'target' the other way. (that is an alternative view anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted December 8, 2008 Report Share Posted December 8, 2008 I'm now hoping it will go all the way to $10. (that seems to be a reasonable support level to your graph Ker) To be followed by costs of production and OPEC squeezing supplies all the way back above $75. There seems to be incredible momentum here supported by deleveraging, demand destruction and de-investing as a result of price falls. I can't help but think that OPEC will naturally end up being behind the curve and will overshoot the $75 'target' the other way. (that is an alternative view anyway) 10 bucks! lol, i will be not suprised to see it at that price, however, the supports could be 32 or 25 if we break 40. (these are trendline-supported supports) i watched the market today, they went higher than friday candle, and the chart looks like a bottom waiting for confirmation. if we dont break it this week, maybe we could have extended trading range (weeks) above 40, before gonig below 40 .... maybe .... we have to watch it i will post the charts when i see something clearly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted December 8, 2008 Report Share Posted December 8, 2008 Ok. I'm fairly ignorant in the ways of investing in oil. Is there any link out there that explains ETF's? Or should I be looking at other forms of investment. you can invest in futures contracts (if you know how to control your greed) search for 'MF Global' , 'futures trading' in google. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted December 10, 2008 Report Share Posted December 10, 2008 we rally rally now! (bottom is in) (temporary bottom) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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