electroweak Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 Well it looks like a gimme. We shall see. whooo... from 803 to 807 in one tick on BV... what i expected! yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 Dollars recovered sharply, silver has gone nowhere, gold falling back already and strangest of all, DOW and FTSE futures up strongly!!!??? Well, that was a fun 30 mins! Beats the hell out of me. I'm not a gold bull (or bear, particularly, at $800) but I agree with many of the views held here on the economic fundamentals in the US, UK and much of the Eurozone. I know that F&F has been expected for a long time, so was probably priced in to a good extent, but why stock markets should rally and gold not respond to the news is beyond me. Anyone have any idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 whooo... from 803 to 807 in one tick on BV... what i expected! yay! It peaks at qabout $811, then drops back to about $809. Is BV being a bit slow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 Dollars recovered sharply, silver has gone nowhere, gold falling back already and strangest of all, DOW and FTSE futures up strongly!!!??? Well, that was a fun 30 mins! Beats the hell out of me. I'm not a gold bull (or bear, particularly, at $800) but I agree with many of the views held here on the economic fundamentals in the US, UK and much of the Eurozone. I know that F&F has been expected for a long time, so was probably priced in to a good extent, but why stock markets should rally and gold not respond to the news is beyond me. Anyone have any idea? it's like watching a trauma patient come back to life.. totally unexpected successes and failures... wow EDIT dunno where BVs prices are feeding from but they never touched 811. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 Spot price feeds seem to be a bit knackered. IG has only just posted an update, so the chart looks like this: The futures price feeds seem OK though. Dec Silver did this (which is where I got the gap from): Not impressed by the fall-back though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 Not impressed by the fall-back though. I don't hold, but PMs do look broken to me at the moment. "Get well soon" is about all you can say. I'm guessing gold is up a touch in euros, but down a touch in sterling, whereas oil is up in all 3 currencies. The apparent leverage of gold against the dollar is not there tonight, i.e. its acting like just a inverse dollar, not amplifying dollar drops as before. I'm probably just reading way too much into very early trading. Many will be waiting for the reaction in Europe and especially USA before commiting to big positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 I'm probably just reading way too much into very early trading. Many will be waiting for the reaction in Europe and especially USA before commiting to big positions. I know what you mean. Sometimes the markets are just plain confusing. - There'll be a change in UK interest rates and the pound won't move. OK - so the market had the move priced in. Fair enough - these traders are a savvy bunch. - But then there'll be an event like last weekend where Alistair Darling admits what anyone with half a brain already knew and BOOMF, GBP falls off a cliff. - Is it a big surprise that Fannie and Freddie would end up this way? I can't really tell from what the market's doing. - And why GBP so upbeat this evening? I suspect it just got over-sold last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tl8177 Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 I know what you mean. Sometimes the markets are just plain confusing. - There'll be a change in UK interest rates and the pound won't move. OK - so the market had the move priced in. Fair enough - these traders are a savvy bunch. - But then there'll be an event like last weekend where Alistair Darling admits what anyone with half a brain already knew and BOOMF, GBP falls off a cliff. - Is it a big surprise that Fannie and Freddie would end up this way? I can't really tell from what the market's doing. - And why GBP so upbeat this evening? I suspect it just got over-sold last week. Maybe KITCO is just really delayed, but it looks to be flying up. Beethoven's 9th seems quite a fitting accompaniment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 I know what you mean. Sometimes the markets are just plain confusing. - There'll be a change in UK interest rates and the pound won't move. OK - so the market had the move priced in. Fair enough - these traders are a savvy bunch. - But then there'll be an event like last weekend where Alistair Darling admits what anyone with half a brain already knew and BOOMF, GBP falls off a cliff. - Is it a big surprise that Fannie and Freddie would end up this way? I can't really tell from what the market's doing. - And why GBP so upbeat this evening? I suspect it just got over-sold last week. F&F certainly wasn't a surprise - it didn't come out of the blue, whereas Darling's pronouncements were truly out of the blue. Not the substance of what he said, just the fact that he chose to say it at all. With F&F it seems to be a case of sell on the rumour, buy on the news. Option 1: F&F is indicative of major systemic problems. Buy gold. Sell everything else. Option 2: The willingness to intervene in F&F means things are not so bad. Buy shares. The markets seem to have chosen the "blue pill" once again............ .................and then gold starts to come up on the outside! Time for bed, I think! Good luck and good night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 Financial planner, Jonathan Davies over at HPC has gone bullish on gold and silver. Has good track record too. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=86625 Silver coins are back over £10 too. I think we might be in for a rally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johan van der Smut Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 He's predicting a rise of "25% by the year end, starting this week". I do believe (after a weekend of listening to GF and Cuthbert's podcasts, the F&F news and now this) that my bullishness is returning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dom Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 Ten year T-note has to be the spread short of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catflap Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 Gold already going up and opening trade in the US now shows the dollar index to have peaked and now declining - already down 0.4% - sure sign that commodities/gold are going to rally from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 Gold already going up and opening trade in the US now shows the dollar index to have peaked and now declining - already down 0.4% - sure sign that commodities/gold are going to rally from here. I see a conspiricy here. China and the US have been highly corodinated in recent weeks: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4178 The end-game may have China buying Gold, energy, and mining shares (soon?) - while the endgame for the US is launching the bailout of Fannie & Freddie while the dollar is strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 I see a conspiricy here. China and the US have been highly corodinated in recent weeks: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4178 The end-game may have China buying Gold, energy, and mining shares (soon?) - while the endgame for the US is launching the bailout of Fannie & Freddie while the dollar is strong What I can't believe is all stations are touting this nationlisation as Good News - the world is saved, credit markets are back and have taken the shape of the US government! LOL - Fannie and Freddie are in so much shit the taxpayer is having to bail them out and this is good news? Allegedly this is going to halt the slide in US property and maybe even allow it to turn positive again.. Errrrrr how? Government will buy and gurantee the debt.. Is this what is called 'monetizing debt'? Un-Believable. IMO this is the beginning of the end . . a couple of more months of intervention, all the way to November election then this could be late 1978 all over again for Gold.. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 If I couldn't read posts like the last one, I'd think I was the only one who thought this way, and would think it must be me going mad. It's nice to know it's not me that's mad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 Think of Mr market as a ship of fools. They will go their merry way... until reality shipwrecks them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 There seems to be a level of niavity, the markets fail to see the bigger international picture. Thankfully there are still some free thinkers amongst us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgleeson Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 Well, if the pm market is indeed manipulated any gains today will be wiped out quicker than even the U.S. jobless data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted September 8, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 Just bought some gold & silver. Expect massive drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drminky Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 Just bought some gold & silver. Expect massive drops. Could well be. At least now we know why silver was brutally attacked last thing on friday. The PPT will have to be out in force today to smash down G&S. A run on the dollar must be prevented at all costs to keep up the spin that this is somehow GOOD news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 What I can't believe is all stations are touting this nationlisation as Good News - the world is saved, credit markets are back and have taken the shape of the US government! LOL - Fannie and Freddie are in so much shit the taxpayer is having to bail them out and this is good news? Allegedly this is going to halt the slide in US property and maybe even allow it to turn positive again.. Errrrrr how? Government will buy and gurantee the debt.. Is this what is called 'monetizing debt'? Un-Believable. IMO this is the beginning of the end . . a couple of more months of intervention, all the way to November election then this could be late 1978 all over again for Gold.. ? I disagree ...kinda F+F now have absolutely zero risk of going bankrupt, so it is less risky to go long on Western economies (even though prior risk was miniscule) The mortgage borrowers still can't keep up their payments, but that no longer implies F+F MBSs should be so devalued as they are now underwritten by the US government. So all holders of these MBSs have just become wealthier. Confidence has to improve given the above Even more amazingly... The 'value loss' that was being suffered by MBSs and which was crippling the credit system has now been fully covered by the fed printing of new money. That should weaken the dollar, but no - they've simply arranged for non-US CBs to buy their dollar bonds to keep the dollar strong, weakening their own currencies in the process. Great to know we're all now baling out the US isn't it? ...sharing a friends pain is one thing, but this sucks!!! Bottom line: imminent global depression just been made less likely or curtailed, but the global inflation monster has just been given a big adrenalin injection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drminky Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 Bottom line: imminent global depression just been made less likely or curtailed, but the global inflation monster has just been given a big adrenalin injection Exactly, I find it simply mind boggling that the market action of the last few months has given ZERO discount to the possibility of inflationary intervention, yet all we ever see from Government action is exactly that.. every time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 Yes, I doubt if the SWFs will come back in and buy F&F bonds which the govt is desperately hoping. Why would they? Looks bad for the dollar. Is this where monetization starts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 I disagree ...kinda F+F now have absolutely zero risk of going bankrupt, so it is less risky to go long on Western economies (even though prior risk was miniscule) The mortgage borrowers still can't keep up their payments, but that no longer implies F+F MBSs should be so devalued as they are now underwritten by the US government. So all holders of these MBSs have just become wealthier. Confidence has to improve given the above Even more amazingly... The 'value loss' that was being suffered by MBSs and which was crippling the credit system has now been fully covered by the fed printing of new money. That should weaken the dollar, but no - they've simply arranged for non-US CBs to buy their dollar bonds to keep the dollar strong, weakening their own currencies in the process. Great to know we're all now baling out the US isn't it? ...sharing a friends pain is one thing, but this sucks!!! Bottom line: imminent global depression just been made less likely or curtailed, but the global inflation monster has just been given a big adrenalin injection Hmmm, this gives me much to think about... thanks bigtbigt. Yup, really suck's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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