FWIW Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 You don't mean - quantative easing has begun? PS. Stop putting 3 fullstops after your sentences. They'll think we're the same person and for your sake, I hope that doesn't happen... You from SSC too...??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoops_apocalypse Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 You from SSC too...??? SSC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 SSC? Skyscrapercity - some cretin accused me on that forum of using multiple personalties...tried to get me banned...because i used 3 full stops...like others here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoops_apocalypse Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 Skyscrapercity - some cretin accused me on that forum of using multiple personalties...tried to get me banned...because i used 3 full stops...like others here... No I'm not, I was just pulling GF's leg, we were all HPC.co.uk terrorists before it turned into singingpig2.co.uk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 13, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 No I'm not, I was just pulling GF's leg, we were all HPC.co.uk terrorists before it turned into singingpig2.co.uk... FFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwerty Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail....&con_type=1 Gold rush Benjamin Scent Friday, November 14, 2008 The mainland is seriously considering a plan to diversify more of its massive foreign-exchange reserves into gold, a person familiar with the situation told The Standard. Beijing is considering changing its asset allocations during the financial tsunami in order to build up gold reserves "in a big way," the source said. China's fears about the long-term viability of parking most of its reserves in US government bonds were triggered by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's US$700 billion (HK$5.46 trillion) bailout plan, which may make the US budget deficit balloon to well over US$1 trillion this fiscal year. The US government will fund the bailout by printing new money or issuing huge amounts of new debt, either of which will put severe pressure on the value of the greenback and on government bond yields. The United States holds 8,133.5 tonnes of gold reserves valued at US$188.23 billion. China holds gold reserves of just 600 tonnes, worth only US$13.89 billion. Beijing's reserves could easily go up to 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes, Tanrich Futures senior vice president Colleen Chow Yin-shan said. Until now, the United States has had little choice but to issue massive amounts of debt to fund its deficits, and China has had little choice but to purchase it, as there are not many markets deep enough to absorb the mainland's US$30 billion to US$40 billion in monthly capital inflows. Government officials involved in the management of China's reserves are beginning to see gold as an attractive place to park some of these funds. They see it as a real, tangible asset that will not lose its value over time - in stark contrast to the greenback, which is becoming more disconnected from economic realities as more bills are printed. "It's the right time to increase the gold reserves, as the price is about US$710 to US$720 per ounce," said Wan Guoli, vice secretary general of the China Gold Association. The International Monetary Fund has made reducing global payment imbalances one of its priorities in the aftermath of the financial tsunami. "I think China probably will expand its strategic reserves into commodities during this downturn," said a Hong Kong-based strategist. "China will continue to buy treasuries ... otherwise the system would get distorted," he said. "But I think China will diversify its reserves." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 It is not irrelevant though. To its fans, gold is a currency. To most people, the dollar is the main currency. So if you are looking for the best currency, gold is in direct competion with the dollar, and losing rather badly. You don't have to buy gold with your pounds, you can buy dollars. The prudent investor balances a variety of factors when making decisions. To focus on just a few, present day prices and short term trends could be considered on the one hand while looking at underlying value and fundamentals on the other. To ignore the latter factors would be like sailing without a compass and clear direction. You would first be blown one way then the other without going anywhere. Ship of fools. Buy dollars now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 Indeed we can. No one willing to field my question ? I see your logic. You expect another dip in gold but also expect your purchasing currency to continue to slide. Maybe the Loonie is good, but being a commodity ciurrency it may also take a hit. Why not buy Yen or Yuan [couldn't possibly suggest the US dollar here ] if you are looking for a stronger interim currency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 Or go to BullionVault... Here's one I made earlier: ... Now add analysis lines to it such as MACD, RSI, 50EMA, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 I see your logic. You expect another dip in gold but also expect your purchasing currency to continue to slide. Maybe the Loonie is good, but being a commodity ciurrency it may also take a hit. Why not buy Yen or Yuan [couldn't possibly suggest the US dollar here ] if you are looking for a stronger interim currency? Thanks so much, RH It seems easier to get comment and analysis on the pitfalls of synthetic CDOs these days than on more everyday fare like where to hold cash temporarily. Yeah a few people whose opinions on gold I respect, are expecting a leg down in the price but, indeed, sterling's taken on the mantle of whipping boy on a daily basis. I guess Yen or Yuan would be better but, sadly, GoldMoney don't offer those currencies in its conversion facility and seeing as it takes 3 days for transfers out of GM to reach my bank account, I reasoned that Dr. Bubb's bottoming in oil call would support the Loonie a helluva lot more than Mervyn King's platitudes can support the pound. Annoying thing is sterling lost C$0.05 against the Loonie yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 Annoying thing is sterling lost C$0.05 against the Loonie yesterday Wow! FWIW I consider gold my base currency these days... my native currency is the Kiwi dollar and I am earning Korean Won. My saving grace is the won and the kiwi, among the worst performing currencies, are pretty much depreciating at the same rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 Getting hard to buy physical? How's this for a new hobby? Ancient Celtic coin cache found in Netherlands http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081113/ap_on_..._celtic_coins_2 AMSTERDAM, Netherlands – A hobbyist with a metal detector struck both gold and silver when he uncovered an important cache of ancient Celtic coins in a cornfield in the southern Dutch city of Maastricht. "It's exciting, like a little boy's dream," Paul Curfs, 47, said Thursday after the spectacular find was made public. Archaeologists say the trove of 39 gold and 70 silver coins was minted in the middle of the first century B.C. as the future Roman ruler Julius Caesar led a campaign against Celtic tribes in the area. Curfs said he was walking with his detector this spring and was about to go home when he suddenly got a strong signal on his earphones and uncovered the first coin. "It was golden and had a little horse on it — I had no idea what I had found," he said. After posting a photo of the coin on a Web forum, he was told it was a rare find. The following day he went back and found another coin. "It looked totally different — silver, and saucer-shaped," he said. Curfs notified the city of his find, and he and several other hobbyists helped in locating the rest of the coins, in cooperation with archaeologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 Canterbury Day today, so we spent all day at a BBQ. Blue sky and sun with a nice cooling breeze. It's a tough life here it really is :D But, that means I am well behind on the postings. I'll probably never catch up at the rate you guys type Anyway..... The physical market for gold continues to be tight and is getting tighter. In fact, the 3M Gold Forward Offered Rate (GOFO) fell another 13 basis points today to 0.20%, and one-month GOFO hit 0.07%. When GOFO goes negative (which will likely happen tomorrow or early next week), then gold will be in backwardation, something that last happened after the Washington Agreement was announced in 1999 and there was a mad dash for physical gold by shorts. I discussed this possibility in Mother of All Short Squeezes for Gold. Unlike other commodities, gold very rarely goes into backwardation, and only when 1) the market fears a collapse in the currency, and/or 2) the market is worried about counterparties making good on their promise to deliver gold (which was briefly the case in 1999, when the Washington Agreement was announced and shorts were squeezed). http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=19977 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 A reminder: How are gold lease rates quoted? http://cij.inspiriting.com/?p=530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 I don't think this is very relevant to gold. I don't think China buying gold could have much effect on the price. Do you ? Gold rush Benjamin Scent Friday, November 14, 2008 http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail....&con_type=1 The mainland is seriously considering a plan to diversify more of its massive foreign-exchange reserves into gold, a person familiar with the situation told The Standard. Beijing is considering changing its asset allocations during the financial tsunami in order to build up gold reserves "in a big way," the source said. China's fears about the long-term viability of parking most of its reserves in US government bonds were triggered by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's US$700 billion (HK$5.46 trillion) bailout plan, which may make the US budget deficit balloon to well over US$1 trillion this fiscal year. The US government will fund the bailout by printing new money or issuing huge amounts of new debt, either of which will put severe pressure on the value of the greenback and on government bond yields. The United States holds 8,133.5 tonnes of gold reserves valued at US$188.23 billion. China holds gold reserves of just 600 tonnes, worth only US$13.89 billion. Beijing's reserves could easily go up to 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes, Tanrich Futures senior vice president Colleen Chow Yin-shan said. Well I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 A reminder: How are gold lease rates quoted? http://cij.inspiriting.com/?p=530 Excellent link. Thanks! However, it still leaves me puzzled as to how and why DLR should ever go negative. It means that GOFO (interest you need to pay someone to lend you cash, if you use gold as a collateral) must be greater than libor (interbank lending rate for cash loaned without collateral). ....i.e., a loan with collateral costing more than a loan without collateral ??!! Not only is that fundamentally crazy, but recently libor has been very high anyway. So it looks to me like CBs have been swapping their gold for other people cash and paying massive (commercially unjustifiable) interest rates for the pleasure. That then gets gold out there, and people will use it for the gold carry trade, and hence depress the PoG (bringing even more profit for the people that received the gold, and then 'shorted' it) It stinks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 I don't think this is very relevant to gold. I don't think China buying gold could have much effect on the price. Do you ? Oh yes! Stand back and think of it this way.... - Some are arguing we need a fiscal stimulus (since new cheap money got us into this mess, more cheap new money will get us out!!!) ...but let's ignore logic and accept this is a good idea just now. - This weekend, G20 are going to meet and some will try to get them all to agree to a massive fiscal stimulus. Well that won't work, becuase some nations think its a bad idea. And unless all of them do this together, then the currencies of those that go ahead without the rest will tank! ...but lets again be dreamers and assume they all agree to do it together. - then all currencies will be devalued, equally, together, relative to each other. In other words, no currency exchange rates will change, and so the new new money injection will not be apparent to anyone. Magic Of course, the above is meant to illustrate that there is no easy fix, and that what we're really seeing now is all fiat currenices (at different times, and in different ways) loosing real value. And at the end of the day, governments and CBs know this and will try to look after themselves at the cost of other nations. China is now one of the main players, with shedloads of cash. They will know - as we all should - that all this fiat value destruction is happening and it will show itself, sonner or later, in the price of precious metals and commodities. So they (and others) will buy gold, and that will then be the last step in the process (indeed the mechanism) for pushing the PoG higher. Its all just part of the natural rebalancing as currencies loose value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 1Kg Gold Bar back in stock... http://www.coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a...;country_id=225 If only I had the money... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 erm . . . is this supposed to be happening ? http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks say they charge each other for three-month loans in dollars rose for a second day. The rate increased 9 basis points to 2.24 percent today, according to British Bankers' Association data. The overnight rate climbed 1 basis point to 0.41 percent, 59 basis points below the Federal Reserve's target rate. The Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of cash scarcity among banks, widened 7 basis points to 167 basis points. The TED spread, which measures the difference between what the U.S. government and banks pay for three-month loans, widened 6 basis points to 203 basis points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 Gold heading towards 750... this isn't supposed to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 Just in case you guys missed any of CGNAO's posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurningRingOfFire Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 Gold heading towards 750... this isn't supposed to happen. ...it won't - they'll dump on it again! Just wait until China (and other) CBs starts to buy - then even I will post a rocket! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 BRILLIANT!!!!!!!! Have a lager drink on me! :cheers: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted November 14, 2008 Report Share Posted November 14, 2008 I wonder if the PPT have any powder left after yesterday to slap POG down this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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