warpig Posted November 12, 2008 Report Share Posted November 12, 2008 I was trying not to scare the locals. You are optimistic!. If gold were to hit $550 ( as a lot now believe it will) and maintain its price in sterling it would suggest an exchange rate of 1.14 against the dollar Can anyone see this happening?......so how long has the dollar got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 12, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2008 Whats your target? Interestingly if we were to back all the currency in circulation in the world with gold, it would have to be circa $7000/oz $1. $7,000? That seems incredibly low. I think it would be north of $10,000, maybe far north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 12, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2008 From JSMineset: European CBs start buying back gold: ECB-Gold reserves rise by 1 mln euros in week Tue, Nov 11 2008, 14:27 GMT FRANKFURT, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Gold and gold receivables held by euro zone central banks rose by 1 million euros to 220.193 billion euros in the week ending Nov. 7, the European Central Bank said on Tuesday. Net foreign exchange reserves in the Eurosystem of central banks rose by 22.8 billion euros to 361.1 billion euros, the ECB said in its regular weekly consolidated financial statement. Gold holdings rose mainly as a result of purchases by 1 euro zone central banks, and this was consistent with the 2004 Central Bank Gold Agreement, the ECB said. Germany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted November 12, 2008 Report Share Posted November 12, 2008 Hi Marceau, Those two statements seem to be a bit at odds with one another. Currencies worth a hell of a lot less would suggest gold worth a hell of a lot more, in fiat terms at least. A matter of timing, wheely. It's going to take a hell of a jolt to send the markets back to gold now, so I can see us declining further in the short - medium term. I'm also pretty sure that jolt will eventually come in the form of either terrifying inflation, or equally terrifying total banking collapse, at some point next year. I'm still buying physical in the short term because further falls in paper gold will have a negligable impact on the price of any physical I can get hold of, so I might as well buy now as I probably won't get better prices by waiting. I will, however, aim to time my commodity and mining stock purchases in order to maximise profit, probably just before and after Christmas. I'm certainly not advocating waiting until next year to make big purchases, the chance of missing the boat will be too great. But staying on the sides with cash does make some sense at the moment, particularly if you already have good holdings of gold and mining shares. Edit: And I agree with Bubb, oil can't be far from the bottom now. One more sell off ought to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted November 12, 2008 Report Share Posted November 12, 2008 $1. blutigen Hölle! Bitte richten Sie mir, Ihre nächste Zinn-Folie Hut Lieferanten $7,000? That seems incredibly low. I think it would be north of $10,000, maybe far north of it. I think its based on physical currency, considering that it represents usually 3% of the money supply...........yea i know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 12, 2008 Report Share Posted November 12, 2008 if they don't start any rally tomorrow, we may put all the lows this week, and begin a considerable rally with a duration until mid january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted November 12, 2008 Report Share Posted November 12, 2008 From London to Berlin. I guess not such a "culture shock". Close enough to just pop back, and even almost the same time zone. I hope it works out well for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 12, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2008 I guess not such a "culture shock". Close enough to just pop back, and even almost the same time zone. I hope it works out well for you Other than houses being 4 times (or so) cheaper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted November 12, 2008 Report Share Posted November 12, 2008 You are optimistic!. If gold were to hit $550 ( as a lot now believe it will) and maintain its price in sterling it would suggest an exchange rate of 1.14 against the dollar Can anyone see this happening?......so how long has the dollar got? I'm thinking it might be worth converting my remaining sterling into CAD using GoldMoney's facility. If gold went to $550 - I'm not convinced it will - then I don't wanna be buying it with sterling. Oh, Mother England, what have you done ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wheelybin Posted November 12, 2008 Report Share Posted November 12, 2008 I hope it works out well for you Thanks. Other than houses being 4 times (or so) cheaper... Or you can rent without being treated like a second class citizen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 gold should not go lower than 660 if usd does not go higher than 90 http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...monthly-max.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 Other than houses being 4 times (or so) cheaper... For the moment :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 READ THIS! http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-g-20s-s...-solution-27996 WOW!! Now if only they would stop using the $ and instead use a basket of 'strong' currencies to price gold in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 3 thoughts in 1 post: 1) We know the dollar ralied from low 70 on USDX because of orchestrated and desperate CB buying, and that pleased the PPT. But since then dollar repatriation and the save-haven mentalioty has pushed the USDX far higher. I suspect the PPT is not please by that, as i) exports will now be suffering, and ii) they'll perhaps need to start worrying about deflation [which is the biggest threat of all]. So I wouldn't be surprised to see interventions to weaken the dollar in the near future. But they'll to do that very carefully, for risk of causing a run on the dollar and sending PMs through the roof 2) Sterling's international index price has dropped 20% in last 3 months, and the fall is nearly 30% against the dollar. So that 30% inflation to swallow - all other things being equal. Then add in the Keynsian fiscal giveaway being planned, plus the major bailout funds being borrowed and printed by the gov, and I really think we'll be looking at a major inflation problem in late 2009 (if nothing else major changes). ...and yes I know the current talk is all about inflation returning to trend, but these same people said 2 years ago there was virtually jno chance of enterring recession. - don't believe the hype! 3) You might like to go to http://www.kitco.com/ and click the link at the bottom "Live currency charts and charts comparing $USD gold to all major currencies" - whereby you can easily look at the price of gold in each major currency. It is striking that, over recent months, gold has been on an uptrend in just about every currency (except USD and YEN). So basically, gold is rising in price, it is signalling inflation and monetary devaluation (despite PPTs efforts to the contrary), and yet everyone seems to only focus on the USD fall in PoG - which is just mirroring an artificial rise in USDX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 READ THIS! http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-g-20s-s...-solution-27996 WOW!! Now if only they would stop using the $ and instead use a basket of 'strong' currencies to price gold in... Great find - and not at all a far fetched scenario. Lets face facts: The global economic system is broken (due to our greed and debt over last 20+ years). Current 'fixes' are little more than tinkering, and may be doing as much harm as good. So if now is not the time for a radical new structure, when would be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fexx Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 3) You might like to go to http://www.kitco.com/ and click the link at the bottom "Live currency charts and charts comparing $USD gold to all major currencies" - whereby you can easily look at the price of gold in each major currency. Do you know where I can find charts like these live spot & historical for silver in GBP? ...gold is rising in price, it is signalling inflation and monetary devaluation (despite PPTs efforts to the contrary), and yet everyone seems to only focus on the USD fall in PoG - which is just mirroring an artificial rise in USDX Yes, I've always found it odd that on this forum, where most buy in GBP, that there in so much focus on the price in USD, which is clearly irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 Had this on the FX thread but it doesn't get as much through traffic as this and as it pertains to gold, I thought I'd try and cheekily shoehorn it in here . . . For various reasons, I still have a fair amount of sterling sitting around. It was my intention to load up on gold and silver but with much talk of a slide in gold to $650, I want to hold off for a bit. Trouble is, sterling's getting hosed on a daily basis. I want to convert into another currency and as USD and EUR aren't really an option, I'm considering parking the money in Canadian dollars. Dr. Bubb recently suggested that there may be a bottoming in crude in the offing and I tend to agree for all sorts of reasons. The Loonie's been spanked pretty hard by the commodity sell off but since crude oil simply cannot remain at its current levels on OPEC's watch, my admittedly simplistic thinking tells me it may be due for a turnaround. If anything, I don't think it's likely to drop as much as sterling will and that's good enough for me. Any assistance would be much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 this chart may be a technical indication that the bottom in deflation has been hit, and inflation has began, on break of 110 down, this asumption will be confirmed http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke.../tbond-1113.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 READ THIS! http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-g-20s-s...-solution-27996 WOW!! Now if only they would stop using the $ and instead use a basket of 'strong' currencies to price gold in... Whew! That's a bit overwhelming... He mentions gold being valued at $10k as a minimum, but if there are $10 to one new dollar, what's been achieved? My head's spinning. Can someone translate this article a little bit for the thick ones at the back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderer Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 Whew! That's a bit overwhelming... He mentions gold being valued at $10k as a minimum, but if there are $10 to one new dollar, what's been achieved? My head's spinning. Can someone translate this article a little bit for the thick ones at the back? Translation: this bloke has a lot of theoretical knowlege, but doesn't know so much about how Government works. The idea you could get one government to agree to things as radical as this is comic. The notion of the G20 agreeing is very amusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 Whew! That's a bit overwhelming... He mentions gold being valued at $10k as a minimum, but if there are $10 to one new dollar, what's been achieved? My head's spinning. Can someone translate this article a little bit for the thick ones at the back? Was gonna try and answer your question but ended up with this instead! Problem 1 - Politicians and ruling 'elite' love fiat.... Problem 2 - Fiat leads to debt based society.... Problem 3 - Politicians and ruling 'elite' love power.... Problem 4 - Resources are all East... Problem 5 - East don't want to be poor anymore... Problem 6 - USD will eventually be toast...(I know this hard to believe at this point in time esp when compared to £) Problem 7 - China and India have mountains of USD looking to go somehwere... Problem 8 - Sheeple are waking up (and I count myself as a sheeple!) and are angry... Solution - Redistribute 'elite power' from west to east by making Japan, China and India 'regional head offices' in this game of fiat in exchange for their money. This will allow the 'elite' to preserve what they have. IMF will be the new master head office where all 'good' politicians will end up. For a while the IMF will link to gold, and then as per tradition fiat will again be fiat... Leverage - West have nuclear weapons and will use them again (on Iran?) if solution is not accepted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 Yes, I've always found it odd that on this forum, where most buy in GBP, that there in so much focus on the price in USD, which is clearly irrelevant. It is not irrelevant though. To its fans, gold is a currency. To most people, the dollar is the main currency. So if you are looking for the best currency, gold is in direct competion with the dollar, and losing rather badly. You don't have to buy gold with your pounds, you can buy dollars. Also, the western investment market is basically driven by dollars. Sure, an asset can be rising in one currency, while falling in another, but that is not gold strength, but pound weakness. Buying anything denominated in dollars has this effect, the most obvious example being just buying dollars themselves. So I belive the dollar price is very important in gauging sentiment in the gold market, although, of course, any individuals bottom line will depend on their local currency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 Whew! That's a bit overwhelming... He mentions gold being valued at $10k as a minimum, but if there are $10 to one new dollar, what's been achieved? My head's spinning. Can someone translate this article a little bit for the thick ones at the back? The plan would be (as I understand it)... - start from the premise that 1 old dollar = 12 new dollars - BUT, everything (debt, asset prices, cash) gets automatically switched from old dollars to new dollars at a 1:1 exchange rate - thus, all debt of X old dollars becomes a debt of X new dollars, (so everyones debt gets reduced in real value terms by 12 fold) - &, to avoid hurting savers (i.e., those who have got cash in hand), they would be given the missing 11 new dollars - &, likewise, a tax system (or something) would be created to protect creditors from a loss - &, gold would get boosted in new dollar price to 12x its old dollar price Thus - no real wealth difference for savers, creditors, or holders of gold, but a debt reduction of 12x for anyone with debt House prices, stock prices, oil prices, agricultural commodities, etc, would move to whatever people can afford - presumably a new dollar price of 12x old dollar price, plus a bit more since peoples debt will be largely removed. So in short, this amounts to simply wiping out a big slice of everyones debt. ...so why not just do that instead (with equivalent remuneration for creditors), without creating new currencies? In either case its Moral Hazard x 1,000,000,000,000,000 (add as many zeros as you wish) Totally unfair, but a simple way to prevent a debt induced global depression [my own view is it would fail, as it doesn't clean up al the mal-investment of the last 20 years of cheap money] [also, I don't understand why a 12x ratio would only monetize 20% of the outstanding public and private sector debt, instead of 11/12 of it] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 Wrongmove - good name! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted November 13, 2008 Report Share Posted November 13, 2008 Wrongmove - good name! Just when you think the level of debate has reached an all time low, something comes along and drags it that little bit lower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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