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From MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis

 

Jon Nadler, Senior Analyst Kitco, Chimes In On The Precious Metals Conspiracy

 

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...tco-chimes.html

 

Long but interesting article describing how a hedge fund unwinding in commodities have caused the recent drop in PM prices we have been seeing.

 

What you have here is the footprints of the hedge funds exiting the commodities' markets in a mass stampede. Nothing more than that.

 

I am a big fan of Occam's Razor which states "All other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best." In other words, when multiple competing theories are equal in other respects, the principle recommends selecting the theory that introduces the fewest assumptions and postulates the fewest entities.

 

Competing Theories

 

Theory 1: The US government, foreign governments, central banks, various broker-dealers, and a consortium of 10 large US banks are all acting together in some massive conspiracy to suppress the price of precious metals, for 15 years running, and during that period not a single person has stepped up to expose the fraud even though CIA and other intelligence leaks have been running rampant.

 

Theory 2: There was massive selling by over-leveraged hedge funds in response to fundamental changes in regards to the US dollar vs. the Euro.

 

 

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New use for gold: clothing.

 

Italian fashion house Fendi has patented golden fur, as detailed in Vogue’s September US issue. The process has something to do with pulverising gold particles in a vacuum chamber, allowing them to be absorbed into the material. The effect is permanent but diffuses in outer space (Seriously, this was a big enough caveat for Vogue to print. There’s a legion of space-shuttling stylistas we aren’t aware of somewhere).

 

As an alternative to stashing your gold coins/bars in the wardrobe (or in addition to).

 

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Have you got yours? Looks like it is becoming increasingly difficult to purchase.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=avQX.wU8TLGE

 

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose in London as the dollar's decline may spur more demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. Platinum climbed for a second day.

 

Demand was ``unprecedented'' by jewelers and other so-called physical buyers of gold in the past three weeks in Europe and Asia, especially India, UBS AG said in a report today. Randgold Refinery Ltd., owner of the world's largest gold refinery in South Africa, ran out of Krugerrand gold coins after a large order from Switzerland last week.

 

``People are searching for an investment that is a long-term store of value,'' said Ben Davies, who helps manage the Hinde Gold Fund in London. Gold ``supply is not readily available at these prices.''

 

...

 

Premium Coins

 

Gold and Silver Investments is paying 3.2 percent extra for Krugerrands minted by the South African Mint, compared with four weeks ago when there was no extra charge over the metal's price, O'Bryne said. ``We can get the coins in limited amounts. It's highly unusual.''

 

Rand Refinery, supplier of blank Krugerrands to the South African mint, had an ``unusually large'' order of 5,000 ounces of Krugerrands last week from a company in Switzerland, wiping out Rand's inventories until next week, said Johan Botha, a spokesman for Rand Refinery in Germiston, South Africa.

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MUHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAH

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=acH4WhPh1WJ0

World's Largest Gold Refiner Runs Out of Krugerrands

 

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Rand Refinery Ltd., the world's largest gold refinery, ran out of South African Krugerrands after an ``unusually large'' order from a buyer in Switzerland.

 

The order was for 5,000 ounces and it will take until Sept. 3 for inventories to be replenished, said Johan Botha, a spokesman for Rand Refinery in Germiston, east of Johannesburg. He declined to identify the buyer.

 

Coins and bars of precious metals are attracting investors as a haven against a sliding dollar and conflict between Russia and its neighbor Georgia. The U.S. Mint suspended sales of one- ounce ``American Eagle'' gold coins, Johnson Matthey Plc stopped taking orders for 100-ounce silver bars at its Salt Lake City refinery and Heraeus Holding GmbH has a delivery waiting list of as long as two weeks for orders of gold bars in Europe

 

....

 

Johnson Matthey's Salt Lake City refinery doesn't have the capacity to meet investor demand for 100-ounce silver bars, said spokesman Ian Godwin in London. He wouldn't comment on whether the company may expand capacity or end production.

 

 

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MUHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAH

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=acH4WhPh1WJ0

World's Largest Gold Refiner Runs Out of Krugerrands

 

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Rand Refinery Ltd., the world's largest gold refinery, ran out of South African Krugerrands after an ``unusually large'' order from a buyer in Switzerland.

 

The order was for 5,000 ounces and it will take until Sept. 3 for inventories to be replenished, said Johan Botha, a spokesman for Rand Refinery in Germiston, east of Johannesburg. He declined to identify the buyer.

 

Coins and bars of precious metals are attracting investors as a haven against a sliding dollar and conflict between Russia and its neighbor Georgia. The U.S. Mint suspended sales of one- ounce ``American Eagle'' gold coins, Johnson Matthey Plc stopped taking orders for 100-ounce silver bars at its Salt Lake City refinery and Heraeus Holding GmbH has a delivery waiting list of as long as two weeks for orders of gold bars in Europe

 

....

 

Johnson Matthey's Salt Lake City refinery doesn't have the capacity to meet investor demand for 100-ounce silver bars, said spokesman Ian Godwin in London. He wouldn't comment on whether the company may expand capacity or end production.

 

Is it just me or does 5000 ounces just dont sound like a lot for a world market :unsure:

 

Think about this. How many mercedes cars do you see driving around ???? lets say the average price is £40k, thats 80 oz's of gold at £500 an ounce. It doesnt take many mercedes cars to fill 5000 oz'z. And the refiner has ran out of gold for a week following one big order :o This market could just explode if enough rich people loose faith in paper money :o

 

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Their view is that the market is bearish and the last trading days have confirmed this. I would think it has been bullish to neutral. Still I will continue to check out their suggestions each day to see longer term.

They're back to WAIT now...

Our system posted a WAIT today. The previous SELL recommendation was made on 27.08.2008 (1) day ago,

when the stock price was 8,226.0000. Since then PHAU has gained 0.53% .

I'm glad I didn't listen to them. But nice to have some TA advising caution now and then, I guess.

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Is it just me or does 5000 ounces just dont sound like a lot for a world market :unsure:

 

Think about this. How many mercedes cars do you see driving around ???? lets say the average price is £40k, thats 80 oz's of gold at £500 an ounce. It doesnt take many mercedes cars to fill 5000 oz'z. And the refiner has ran out of gold for a week following one big order :o This market could just explode if enough rich people loose faith in paper money :o

Yes. But also keep in mind that larger gold purchases (by individuals) would usually be in bars. Would be interesting to know whether there is one individual behind this order, or a large dealer. Anyway, this demand will feed through to LBMA-sized bars sooner or later.

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Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Rand Refinery Ltd., the world's largest gold refinery, ran out of South African Krugerrands after an ``unusually large'' order from a buyer in Switzerland.

 

The order was for 5,000 ounces and it will take until Sept. 3 for inventories to be replenished, said Johan Botha, a spokesman for Rand Refinery in Germiston, east of Johannesburg. He declined to identify the buyer.

 

Yeah, sorry, this was me. Just got to find a place to keep them now ...

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In theory, as 'large' customers with BV can sell to the open market, is it safe to assume BV will track the physical (i.e. not paper) price in the event of a blow-off in the paper market for gold?

 

I am 99% sure I'm right, but that 1% niggling doubt is making me buy bars...... hmm......

Interested to know what others think..

 

I assume it will take effect once the LBMA market for 12.5Kg bars diverges from the paper price??

 

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Not my normal genre but it seems apt.

 

 

Have you got yours? Looks like it is becoming increasingly difficult to purchase.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=avQX.wU8TLGE

 

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose in London as the dollar's decline may spur more demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. Platinum climbed for a second day.

 

Demand was ``unprecedented'' by jewelers and other so-called physical buyers of gold in the past three weeks in Europe and Asia, especially India, UBS AG said in a report today. Randgold Refinery Ltd., owner of the world's largest gold refinery in South Africa, ran out of Krugerrand gold coins after a large order from Switzerland last week.

 

``People are searching for an investment that is a long-term store of value,'' said Ben Davies, who helps manage the Hinde Gold Fund in London. Gold ``supply is not readily available at these prices.''

 

...

 

Premium Coins

 

Gold and Silver Investments is paying 3.2 percent extra for Krugerrands minted by the South African Mint, compared with four weeks ago when there was no extra charge over the metal's price, O'Bryne said. ``We can get the coins in limited amounts. It's highly unusual.''

 

Rand Refinery, supplier of blank Krugerrands to the South African mint, had an ``unusually large'' order of 5,000 ounces of Krugerrands last week from a company in Switzerland, wiping out Rand's inventories until next week, said Johan Botha, a spokesman for Rand Refinery in Germiston, South Africa.

 

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I worry about the third comment on that link. :(

 

(Hi everyone, clueless newbie here!)

Welcome, plan9! :)

Analyst John Reade is recommending investors buy the precious metal as the dollar “appears to have topped out for now.” The price will reach $850 an ounce within a month, Reade says, and $900 within three months.

850 to 900 within 3 months is hardly sticking one's neck out. They're not even near new highs. I shouldn't let this worry you.

 

Just a reminder to everybody that Tropical Storm Gustav is on course for the Gulf of Mexico. It remains to be seen whether it becomes a hurricane, but disruption of oil and gas production is likely.

KINGSTON (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Gustav, which has killed at least 60 people in the Caribbean, struck Jamaica with near hurricane-force winds on Thursday and was on a path to reach New Orleans and the Gulf of Mexico oil fields as a potentially powerful hurricane.

 

As Gustav churned through the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Hanna formed in the Atlantic Ocean with 40-mph (65-kph) winds. The eighth storm of a busy Atlantic hurricane season took a track that could threaten the Bahamas and Florida, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

 

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EASY $10 oer ounce...

 

That's what could have been made. Selling Gold after Oil collapsed,

and then buying it back when it followed Oil down

 

Quite a big number must be playing this game now

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article-0-026EBA5900000578-498_468x730.j

 

Who is it (in 110 pounds solid gold)?

 

Answer: http://news.yahoo.com/s/eonline/20080828/en_celeb_eo/26366

 

Great !

Time to cue up: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7leX_BBcOA

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http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Busines...how/3418861.cms

 

MUMBAI: Gold is enjoying a modern-day renaissance in the country. From retail sales of 300-400 kgs of gold bar per day at the start of 2008, demand has surged to 3,000 to 4,000 kgs per day.

 

The demand for the metal has skyrocketed to such an extent that imports for the month of August alone are set to cross 100 tonne. Last August, the country imported 69 tonne of gold.

 

The country imported 750 tonne of the yellow metal in 2006. This dropped to 449 tonne in 2007, as a consequence of the rise in price. Traders who spoke to TOI said India imported 122 tonne between January to July 2008. The corresponding period of 2007 saw 269 tonne of the metal coming into the country.
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