GOLD

[bitbigt]

A prediction for October...

I'm signing off for a few days, so I thoughts I'd review and update my predictions from last month - probably to keep me focussed rather than to tell you wise and wonderful posters anything you don't already know:

[so as always, ignore me and DYOR]

 

A prediction for October [herein updated for November]...

- DOW and FTSE may have (at best) a small relief rally (due to ramped up bank bale outs, plus many rate cuts globally). But banks are shot as a long term investment theme, and general earnings across many sectors will dissapoint. So by months end DOW and FTSE will be no higher than today, and perhaps as low as (or will have touched) 9500 and 4000 respectively. These numbers are still 10-20% above the absolute bottoms that will be reached briefly during the next 6-12 months.

...that relief rally happened, and has peaked. Watch out below! Probably heading back down most of the way to last months lows again in November.

- 50% chance of a bank holiday week

...didn't happen, and was anyway only a 50:50 option. Now probably won't happen, as the govs have made it clear they will bail out regardless.

- dramatic emergency base rate cuts happen globally (BoE may even announce 0.5% today, 1 day earlier than expected)

...happened, and still far more to come as they race to the bottom. Expect another 0.5-1.0% off UK rates in November.

- Sterling will fall further, reaching 1.65 vs USD. After this month, the dollar will tank.

...I was too optimistic! Looking for 1.40 this month, and the USD then starting to weaken

- I think we'll see oil at 75-80 this month, and over the next 6 months it may even touch 65-70 [and if so, load up!!!!!].

...too optimistic on this one also! Oil now at around 55-60, and I think we'll see 50 before this month ends [bTW: I did load up at 70, and will do so again if/when oil goes below 50]

- Western inflation fails to drop significantly this month, and UK CPI may actually exceed 5%. Longer term they're on there way up [and note: real CPI from shadowstats is already >13%]

...OK, I now accept we'll see something of a fall in inflation (only because oil has come down so much more than I expected), but it will be transient! Big inflation problems will be with us by mid/end 2009

- all the above will cause a ramp up in fear, and gold will rally further (950-1000 in USD, >550 in GBP, by months end)

...right about the fear going up, but the PPT and the deflation concerns have held gold back. There's now now (or very little) further downside in PoG, and as soon as dollar starts to turn South, oil and PMs will shoot up (next month or two). And note, gold did hit 550 in GBP, and still hovers around 500!

- The leadership on banks (amounts and strategy) shown by Alister Darling today is excellent. It will lead the way for countries out of this current pannick

...sure did. But this has now gone to Brown's head, and he thinks he can coordinate a global wave of tax cuts and fiscal stimulation. He will fail to get sufficient universal support , and problems will follow from that failure

[FWIW]

I'm signing off for a few days, so I thoughts I'd review and update my predictions from last month - probably to keep me focussed rather than to tell you wise and wonderful posters anything you don't already know:

[so as always, ignore me and DYOR]

 

A prediction for October [herein updated for November]...

- DOW and FTSE may have (at best) a small relief rally (due to ramped up bank bale outs, plus many rate cuts globally). But banks are shot as a long term investment theme, and general earnings across many sectors will dissapoint. So by months end DOW and FTSE will be no higher than today, and perhaps as low as (or will have touched) 9500 and 4000 respectively. These numbers are still 10-20% above the absolute bottoms that will be reached briefly during the next 6-12 months.

...that relief rally happened, and has peaked. Watch out below! Probably heading back down most of the way to last months lows again in November.

- 50% chance of a bank holiday week

...didn't happen, and was anyway only a 50:50 option. Now probably won't happen, as the govs have made it clear they will bail out regardless.

- dramatic emergency base rate cuts happen globally (BoE may even announce 0.5% today, 1 day earlier than expected)

...happened, and still far more to come as they race to the bottom. Expect another 0.5-1.0% off UK rates in November.

- Sterling will fall further, reaching 1.65 vs USD. After this month, the dollar will tank.

...I was too optimistic! Looking for 1.40 this month, and the USD then starting to weaken

- I think we'll see oil at 75-80 this month, and over the next 6 months it may even touch 65-70 [and if so, load up!!!!!].

...too optimistic on this one also! Oil now at around 55-60, and I think we'll see 50 before this month ends [bTW: I did load up at 70, and will do so again if/when oil goes below 50]

- Western inflation fails to drop significantly this month, and UK CPI may actually exceed 5%. Longer term they're on there way up [and note: real CPI from shadowstats is already >13%]

...OK, I now accept we'll see something of a fall in inflation (because oil hs come down so much more than I expected), but it will be transient! Big inflation problems by mid/end 2009

- all the above will cause a ramp up in fear, and gold will rally further (950-1000 in USD, >550% in GBP, by months end)

...right about the fear going up, but the PPT and the deflation concerns have held gold back. There's now now (or very little) further downside in PoG, and as soon as dollar starts to turn South, oil and PMs will shoot up (next month or two)

- The leadership on banks (amounts and strategy) shown by Alister Darling today is excellent. It will lead the way for countries out of this current pannick

...sure did. But this has now gone to Brown's head, and he thinks he can coordinate a global wave of tax cuts and fiscal stimulation. He will fail to get sufficient universal support , and problems will follow from that failure

 

 

Thanks bigt for your update - have a good few days away! Always good for the soul, fresh air and sunlight!

 

 

[bitbigt]

...go to http://www.kitco.com/ and click the link at the bottom "Live currency charts and charts comparing $USD gold to all major currencies" - whereby you can easily look at the price of gold in each major currency. It is striking that, over recent months, gold has been on an uptrend in just about every currency (except USD and YEN).

 

To emphasise this point...

 

To the extent that gold is a currency (and I think its principally is), then only USD and YEN are stronger currencies in these last many months.

 

USD is strong because of manipulation and fear-based repatriation of dollars (i.e., all temporary)

 

YEN is strong because the carry trade is closing down (also temporary, as once its shut, its shut)

 

GOLD is strong because... [fill in your own answer, and invest accordingly]

 

[bitbigt]

Thanks bigt for your update - have a good few days away! Always good for the soul, fresh air and sunlight!

Thanks for your thanks, and great weekend to all.

[kernull]

warning, gold is still bearish, i will come up with charts after market close, but this is not a buy point yet, no matter how high it goes

[HPCSucks]

warning, gold is still bearish, i will come up with charts after market close, but this is not a buy point yet, no matter how high it goes

are we talking $'s or £'s here?

[qwerty]

Now add analysis lines to it such as MACD, RSI, 50EMA, etc?

 

 

Any Good?

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p34588046004

[G0ldfinger]

Excellent link. Thanks!

 

However, it still leaves me puzzled as to how and why DLR should ever go negative. It means that GOFO (interest you need to pay someone to lend you cash, if you use gold as a collateral) must be greater than libor (interbank lending rate for cash loaned without collateral). ....i.e., a loan with collateral costing more than a loan without collateral ??!!

 

Not only is that fundamentally crazy, but recently libor has been very high anyway.

No, it's not. It's just a sign that no one trusts the collateral, since it is some shady version of paper gold traded on the CRIMEX,

 

It's completely rational, you want the gold NOW and DELIVERED, and not in the future and promised on paper.

[azazel]

warning, gold is still bearish, i will come up with charts after market close, but this is not a buy point yet, no matter how high it goes

 

Thanks. I'm looking to buy at the moment and will wait for a better time.

[G0ldfinger]

Thanks. I'm looking to buy at the moment and will wait for a better time.

Yes. Let's all wait for $1,000 to buy.

 

 

:lol:

[id5]

Any Good?

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p34588046004

for you

[azazel]

Yes. Let's all wait for $1,000 to buy.

 

 

:lol:

 

oh stop it.

 

would you buy today then?

 

[kernull]

Yes. Let's all wait for $1,000 to buy.

 

i think you are right, i shouldn't be telling everybody when to buy or sell, i take my words back, if someone wants to buy, buy it, or sell it. i could be wrong also, i am not the whole market.

[Compounded]

I am in the UK

 

UK may go the same way as Iceland

 

Gold will protect me from that so I am sticking with gold.

[Steve Netwriter]

Hmmm, went to bed thinking it looked like it was going to rise.

 

£501.40/oz

 

Back over that magic £500 again.

 

It doesn't look so good if you're into Yen though

 

 

I don't suppose most of you guys have seen this.

I did this back in Jan to show the effect of the Gold exchange rate with other currencies dependent on how the fiat currencies change.

This is Jim Sinclairs prediction:

 

 

And what that would mean against GBP:

 

 

And what it would mean against Yen:

 

 

You can see how I was predicting a possible fall in gold against Yen if the US$JPY falls enough.

 

I think that shows how your view on the gold 'price' is greatly affected by what you are buying it in.

 

[warpig]

Don't worry no one here is daft enough to hold anyone else responsible for their own actions. There is an implicit caveat that comes with forum advice, DYOR.

 

i think you are right, i shouldn't be telling everybody when to buy or sell, i take my words back, if someone wants to buy, buy it, or sell it. i could be wrong also, i am not the whole market.

 

[qwertyuiop]

I bought more gold today. I thought sterling...gold....sterling....gold.....gold....gold...

 

no contest really.

 

Still only around the 5% mark for GOLD though. Mostly in other currencies.

 

To what percentage are other people invested?

[wren]

warning, gold is still bearish, i will come up with charts after market close, but this is not a buy point yet, no matter how high it goes

What are your thoughts on silver? Do you think it has bottomed yet?

 

[sash777]

I bought more gold today. I thought sterling...gold....sterling....gold.....gold....gold...

 

no contest really.

 

Still only around the 5% mark for GOLD though. Mostly in other currencies.

 

To what percentage are other people invested?

50% now but probably a lot more by mid-week. If it's Sterling (or any other currency for that matter!) or Gold then right now there only seems to be one option.

[kernull]

What are your thoughts on silver? Do you think it has bottomed yet?

 

nope, i don't think its a bottom yet, silver is set up in a rising wedge (just like copper), to keep falling next week. looks like it will be the final week of selling, and then a rally of 4-6 weeks. i will post charts soon.

[plan9]

Don't worry no one here is daft enough to hold anyone else responsible for their own actions.

[/lerk]Maybe I should teach you people how to make (hard) cider! [lerk]

 

Edit: Love your posts Ker + your analysis!

[warpig]

With my savings which is reasonably significant, 100% in silver and gold, 11:1 weight ratio. If the sale of my house goes through I really don't know, but probably up to 60%.

 

To what percentage are other people invested?

 

[warpig]

I like Johann.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKwdpCI3MQY

[Steve Netwriter]

I like Johann.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKwdpCI3MQY

 

Oh YES, me too :wub:

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

And from the same (obviously vested interest):

 

 

Comex Gold

14 November 2008

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbfKbg7ngc0

 

More on the potential Comex .... ummmm, lack of gold

 

 

and this one, which has a good explanation. Well worth watching.

 

COMEX Default on Gold or Silver

12 October 2008

 

IMO he's wrong about Gold Money. Unlike some other places, GM do have the gold.