GOLD

[wrongmove]

Good call. I just can't figure out why PMs have tanked so much in light of latest western inflation figures, money supply figures etc.

 

Well, gold surged over the last few years on correct expectations that inflation (CPI/RPI) would rise. Gold now seems to be falling back because the expectations going forward from here have changed.

 

For example, oil. It has driven up inflation, but now it has dropped (~20%!). For oil to keep driving up (YoY) inflation, it is not enough that it just stays high. It has to continue rising. But it has dropped. Another few months of this, and oil will be dragging inflation down.

 

With a flurry of bad numbers from Asia and Europe (now technically in recession), the market does not see it flying up from here to well beyond $140, which would be required to continue to drive inflation. And with things like property tanking in most countries at the moment, debt driven money supply is not seen as likely from here.

 

The fact that these expectations are driving shares up (presumably reduced fear of rate rises) will be short lived, as deflation is hardly likely to be good for shares, either.

 

 

Didn't gold tank last time, just as boom turned to recession? The very same month, I believe, in the USA. And with demand seemingly dropping, all comodities have suffered badly (I know gold is not a commodity to many here, but it sure seems to trade like one). Plus, hot money is being pulled out. The hedge funds (which seem a far, far more likely explanation to me than the "PPT") are pulling out, or even shorting. They just follow trends. They have no political agenda. They will happily chase prices up or down, as long as they are the correct side of the trade, and massed punters are the wrong side.

 

 

So it seems to me that if you think the market is wrong, and we are actually on the verge of a renewed credit boom, then pile in. But why not wait for a more obvious bottom first? Gold has shed 20%, so it needs to gain 25%, just to get to where it started. And it was cheap at the peak, apparently, was it not? I had always thought that the very first rule of TA was don't try to catch a falling knife. If you miss the bottom by 10%, so what?

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

What you mean like his DJIA at 15000 and the US out of recession by June-yeah the guy is a genius....

 

...

 

 

 

 

....

 

 

>>>>

 

 

 

 

>>>>>>

 

 

 

 

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

 

 

 

NOT!!!

sure he can defend himself - but re dow 15000 the situation changed and he changed his forecast before the dow fell

 

[cazlane]

sure he can defend himself - but re dow 15000 the situation changed and he changed his forecast before the dow fell

 

Im sure he can LRYMS, however, if I and several others could see this was clearly not the case when he made these ridiculous comments how is it he could not? IIRC his reasoning for US out of recession was that Walmart shares had picked up of all things-he's a so-called professional investment advisor ffs...had you acted on that kind of advice you'd be pretty p!ssed off about it now even if he did 'correct' his view afterwards.

[electroweak]

Well, gold surged over the last few years on correct expectations that inflation (CPI/RPI) would rise. Gold now seems to be falling back because the expectations going forward from here have changed.

 

For example, oil. It has driven up inflation, but now it has dropped (~20%!). For oil to keep driving up (YoY) inflation, it is not enough that it just stays high. It has to continue rising. But it has dropped. Another few months of this, and oil will be dragging inflation down.

WM, do you really think $110 oil has flowed through to the consumer yet? I can remember a few months ago the money-honies going on about the 'first $100 oil trade'. Maybe I'm getting old. but it wasn't that long ago; and inflation is a proverbial supertanker- takes years to start and years to slow....

[isophorus]

The decline for gold came amid slowing physical demand for jewellery after prices hit record levels above $900 an ounce. Second-quarter demand for the metal fell 19 per cent to 735.6 tonnes, according to figures from the industry-backed World Gold Council this week - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc97963e-6aa9-11...00779fd18c.html

[THEBIGMAN]

Well, gold surged over the last few years on correct expectations that inflation (CPI/RPI) would rise. Gold now seems to be falling back because the expectations going forward from here have changed.

Oh, for sure. It's just that a few fundamental truths still apply - western nations are deep in debt - particularly their profligate governments. Since politicians almost invariably take the easy or short-termist solution to any problem (elections approaching, see) they are almost certain to switch the metaphorical printing presses on, and be damned with the consequences (they're alright, they'll vote 'emselves a payrise - and an increased expense account). Where does all the money go? Peeps ain't buyin' property no more. Why the shift in expectations?

 

Gold has shed 20%, so it needs to gain 25%, just to get to where it started. And it was cheap at the peak, apparently, was it not? I had always thought that the very first rule of TA was don't try to catch a falling knife. If you miss the bottom by 10%, so what?

Very good point. My personal gut feeling is that there's gonna be the mother of all bounces, however that might just be wishful thinking...

[wrongmove]

WM, do you really think $110 oil has flowed through to the consumer yet? I can remember a few months ago the money-honies going on about the 'first $100 oil trade'. Maybe I'm getting old. but it wasn't that long ago; and inflation is a proverbial supertanker- takes years to start and years to slow....

 

I doubt it, but I don't know. My post was just to summarise how I see trading behaviour now. I am not qualified or experienced enough to get into the prediction game. Just trying to sound a small note of caution amongst the clamour of "gold can only go up".

 

 

 

 

[drminky]

Well, gold surged over the last few years on correct expectations that inflation (CPI/RPI) would rise. Gold now seems to be falling back because the expectations going forward from here have changed.

 

For example, oil. It has driven up inflation, but now it has dropped (~20%!). For oil to keep driving up (YoY) inflation, it is not enough that it just stays high. It has to continue rising. But it has dropped. Another few months of this, and oil will be dragging inflation down.

 

With a flurry of bad numbers from Asia and Europe (now technically in recession), the market does not see it flying up from here to well beyond $140, which would be required to continue to drive inflation. And with things like property tanking in most countries at the moment, debt driven money supply is not seen as likely from here.

 

The fact that these expectations are driving shares up (presumably reduced fear of rate rises) will be short lived, as deflation is hardly likely to be good for shares, either.

 

 

Didn't gold tank last time, just as boom turned to recession? The very same month, I believe, in the USA. And with demand seemingly dropping, all comodities have suffered badly (I know gold is not a commodity to many here, but it sure seems to trade like one). Plus, hot money is being pulled out. The hedge funds (which seem a far, far more likely explanation to me than the "PPT") are pulling out, or even shorting. They just follow trends. They have no political agenda. They will happily chase prices up or down, as long as they are the correct side of the trade, and massed punters are the wrong side.

 

 

So it seems to me that if you think the market is wrong, and we are actually on the verge of a renewed credit boom, then pile in. But why not wait for a more obvious bottom first? Gold has shed 20%, so it needs to gain 25%, just to get to where it started. And it was cheap at the peak, apparently, was it not? I had always thought that the very first rule of TA was don't try to catch a falling knife. If you miss the bottom by 10%, so what?

 

 

 

Yes, Bernanke and the central bankers talk a lot about managing inflation expectations.

 

..not so much about managing INFLATION though..

 

So, because of ( A ) a great slowing down/recession in the western economies, the market sees reduced demand for oil and commodities going forward ( B )

So low oil and commodities ( B ) makes the stock market rally, led by financials and consumer discretionary ( C )

 

Simple Logic: if A = B and B = C, then it follows A = C

 

So we are to believe a great downturn in demand and consumption in western economies = higher stockmarkets, improvement in discretionary spending and financial sector profits?

 

These guys are GENIUS!

 

its like herding sheep, really..

[wrongmove]

So we are to believe a great downturn in demand and consumption in western economies = higher stockmarkets, improvement in discretionary spending and financial sector profits?

 

The most common explanation I have seen for the recent upturn in stocks is that traders are in a "flight for safety". The first step may be selling developing country stocks and exotic investments (gold is classed as exotic by many) and buying US stock (among other thiongs). I guess the next move would be to liquidate those, if global slowdown pans out.

 

 

[drminky]

The most common explanation I have seen for the recent upturn in stocks is that traders are in a "flight for safety". The first step may be selling developing country stocks and exotic investments (gold is classed as exotic by many) and buying US stock (among other thiongs). I guess the next move would be to liquidate those, if global slowdown pans out.

 

A 'flight to safety' to the eye of the storm?

 

..or a bunch of pigs rushing in to feed at the fed discount window trough?

[cgnao]

The decline for gold came amid slowing physical demand for jewellery after prices hit record levels above $900 an ounce. Second-quarter demand for the metal fell 19 per cent to 735.6 tonnes, according to figures from the industry-backed World Gold Council this week - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc97963e-6aa9-11...00779fd18c.html

 

Slowing physical demand my ****.....

 

MUHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHA

 

http://www.gata.org/node/6489

 

The U.S. Mint has suspended sales of American eagle gold coins and is refusing orders from dealers, two coin and bullion dealers confirmed Thursday.

 

The mint's suspension of gold coin sales follows its tight rationing of sales of silver eagle coins, begun in May, when sales to the public were terminated and sales to the mint's 13 authorized dealers were tightly limited.

 

Word of the mint's suspension of gold coin sales came from the American Precious Metals Exchange in Edmond, Oklahoma, and from Centennial Precious Metals in Denver, Colorado.

 

The suspension is overwhelming evidence that the futures contract price of gold on the commodities exchanges is substantially below the physical market price and that, indeed, the commodities exchanges are being used as GATA long has maintained -- as part of a massive scheme of manipulation of the precious metals, currency, and bond markets.

 

https://online.kitco.com/bullion/completelist.html

 

IMPORTANT:Due to the volatility of the market, we are experiencing a significant increase in the volume of shipments going out. Although Kitco and our depositories are working hard to stay on top of this, you may experience a delay in your order being processed by our vault, and sent out to you. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, and appreciate your patience and understanding.

 

http://www.bulliondirect.com/index.jsp

 

High Activity Market Alert The precious metals industry is experiencing a substantial surge in activity which may increase the possibility of logistical delays; including customer service response time, product processing (incoming and outgoing), and product transport/fulfillment.

 

Certain silver products are delayed as much as 2-4 weeks. Please review Catalog descriptions for notices regarding such delays.

 

We are working diligently to fulfill all orders in a timely fashion while maintaining competitive prices.

 

We appreciate your patience and understanding.

The Bullion Direct Team

[avid tea drinker]

Slowing physical demand my ****.....

 

MUHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHA

 

http://www.gata.org/node/6489

 

The U.S. Mint has suspended sales of American eagle gold coins and is refusing orders from dealers, two coin and bullion dealers confirmed Thursday.

 

The mint's suspension of gold coin sales follows its tight rationing of sales of silver eagle coins, begun in May, when sales to the public were terminated and sales to the mint's 13 authorized dealers were tightly limited.

 

Word of the mint's suspension of gold coin sales came from the American Precious Metals Exchange in Edmond, Oklahoma, and from Centennial Precious Metals in Denver, Colorado.

 

The suspension is overwhelming evidence that the futures contract price of gold on the commodities exchanges is substantially below the physical market price and that, indeed, the commodities exchanges are being used as GATA long has maintained -- as part of a massive scheme of manipulation of the precious metals, currency, and bond markets.

 

https://online.kitco.com/bullion/completelist.html

 

IMPORTANT:Due to the volatility of the market, we are experiencing a significant increase in the volume of shipments going out. Although Kitco and our depositories are working hard to stay on top of this, you may experience a delay in your order being processed by our vault, and sent out to you. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, and appreciate your patience and understanding.

 

http://www.bulliondirect.com/index.jsp

 

High Activity Market Alert The precious metals industry is experiencing a substantial surge in activity which may increase the possibility of logistical delays; including customer service response time, product processing (incoming and outgoing), and product transport/fulfillment.

 

Certain silver products are delayed as much as 2-4 weeks. Please review Catalog descriptions for notices regarding such delays.

 

We are working diligently to fulfill all orders in a timely fashion while maintaining competitive prices.

 

We appreciate your patience and understanding.

The Bullion Direct Team

 

And the real world consequences are shortages (long waits for product - like a soviet food line) + mining is unprofitable (so stocks have not participated for years)

[drbubb]

Look at this massive volume / more than the drop below GLD-84/ Gold-$850

 

Loads more stops cleaned out

 

AS gold makes new lows, with Oil retesting the prior ones

[Errol]

Who's buying it all though? That's the question ...

[cgnao]

[drbubb]

Still in channel...

 

This Gold breakdown is really a "Dollar phenomenon".

Take a look at Gold-in-Euros, its still in the channel at Eur.550 / oz.

[wren]

Still in channel...

 

This Gold breakdown is really a "Dollar phenomenon".

Take a look at Gold-in-Euros, its still in the channel at Eur.550 / oz.

Yep. This is what I keep thinking. I buy in euros, so I also follow the euro price closely. GBP etc. are probably similar.

 

[Gatesy]

http://www.gata.org/node/6489

 

The U.S. Mint has suspended sales of American eagle gold coins and is refusing orders from dealers, two coin and bullion dealers confirmed Thursday.

 

The mint's suspension of gold coin sales follows its tight rationing of sales of silver eagle coins, begun in May, when sales to the public were terminated and sales to the mint's 13 authorized dealers were tightly limited.

 

Word of the mint's suspension of gold coin sales came from the American Precious Metals Exchange in Edmond, Oklahoma, and from Centennial Precious Metals in Denver, Colorado.

 

The suspension is overwhelming evidence that the futures contract price of gold on the commodities exchanges is substantially below the physical market price and that, indeed, the commodities exchanges are being used as GATA long has maintained -- as part of a massive scheme of manipulation of the precious metals, currency, and bond markets.

 

I just sent this to goldmoney:

 

Dear Mr Turk

 

GATA, with whom you are closely associated, have published the view that the US Mint's suspension of silver and now gold eagles is "overwhelming evidence that the futures contract price of gold on the commodities exchanges is substantially below the physical market price". Please could you lay out for me your plan for ensuring that the mechanism for selling physical gold and physical silver via Goldmoney reflects prices for the physical metals rather than 'paper' markets as we see further divergence between the two. I would like to post your response on the Global Edge Investors (globaledgeinvestors.com) website with which you may be familiar, for the benefit of members there.

 

ref:

http://www.gata.org/node/6489

 

Kind regards

 

 

 

[azazel]

think from memory FP said Gold was going to $750 a few months ago - good call

 

Indeed. He did say this and he also said that gold would go much higher ($2000+ I think he said)

 

Are we confident the gold bull is still going or is that the end of it?

[Errol]

Indeed. He did say this and he also said that gold would go much higher ($2000+ I think he said)

 

Are we confident the gold bull is still going or is that the end of it?

 

From a technical point of view it would have to drop below around $600 for the bull to be over.

[wren]

I just sent this to goldmoney:

 

Dear Mr Turk

 

[etc.]

 

Kind regards

 

Aagh, but please don't give him ideas. I think that what they are saying is that if all the paper contracts had to be honoured with physical, they couldn't possibly do it at the quoted "paper price".

 

[Wanderer]

This article cheered me up in a not-really-that-funny sort of way

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...bcnpound215.xml

I guess is Gold is taking a pasting its no harm if the pound plummets - kind of makes up for losses in dollar gold (and was one of the reasons I got into gold in the first place - as a hedge against sterling weakness).

 

Of course, $1200 gold and $1.55 pounds would suit me fine....

[isophorus]

 

In the last 12 hours I notice http://www.coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a=10&id=160 is offering much less in the way of silver coins or silver bars. They've sold out quickly.

[torino]

Bigtit

 

This is REALLY the best I have read today - did well to drop at an internet cafe before my second round.

 

Fellow UK residents... we really should start watching the charts in GBP and not USD, they're a lot prettier

 

 

 

 

[kernull]

open interest for december 08 contract increased to 228,818 since august, indicating a lot of shorts & signaling lower prices for gold in december:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C8