SILVER

[G0ldfinger]

Me too. Have sold out anticipating Dow/FTSE plunge in the next three months, then will buy back. ...

You might have missed the train now.

 

You got to be in it to win. Short term trading is for Google and Enron.

[grumpy-old-man]

I still don't use the ratio. Sorry to you guys who do

 

Remember this thread:

 

Gold versus Silver, Volatility & Swapping

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3127

 

thanks for that link Steve.

 

I have just read the thread. Horses for course then.....surely better to use everything, DMA, G/S ratio & gut feeling. My personal opinion (even when I didn't have much pm's) was that Pgold & Psilver would be king, then it's just down to how you do your split.

 

 

 

If I don't get the timing quite right I tend to stick with it and wait for the next likely turn.

I don't wobble rapidly backwards and forwards

 

agreed.

[grumpy-old-man]

Me too. Have sold out anticipating Dow/FTSE plunge in the next three months, then will buy back.

 

We are not at the endgame or hyperinflation yet and piles of government debt needs to be dealt with.

 

I think the Americans and Chinese will fight each other over gold and silver, and the Chinese will let them take prices down and the dollar up, then stick the knife in and buy big- screwing those banks that short the price down.

 

Buy and hold is one strategy, but I think it overlooks certain opportunities. Frequent trading is a mug's game.

 

what makes you think that now isn't that time ? Remember they have been surpressing the pm prices for many years.

So you must be sat now with 100% currency then in a bank(s)? :o Rather you than me.

[azazel]

You have done well to buy your PMs when you did GOM. Nice bit of timing, you must be up already.

[grumpy-old-man]

You have done well to buy your PMs when you did GOM. Nice bit of timing, you must be up already.

 

I actually typed out a post a few minutes ago in response to GF's 'you got to be in it to win it' post, but thought I might sound a bit shouty, if you know what I mean.

 

tbh, I was really panicking because I knew I had left it very, very late. I would have bought earlier but we had planned on leaving that French house. I am happy with my current situation BUT I still have some euros left tbh. This money is earmarked for 2 new (3 year old) cars, enough to cover the kids Uni fees/diggs for 2 years & enough for 6 months rent in advance in case we need it for next year's relocation. edited - I know I should be buying more pm's with this though.

 

I also have about euros 5k after that for more pm's. I would have loved to buy those few coins az, glad you sold them though.

[njpurser]

what makes you think that now isn't that time ? Remember they have been surpressing the pm prices for many years.

So you must be sat now with 100% currency then in a bank(s)? :o Rather you than me.

I think the stock markets will crash soon, taking pms down with them temporarily.

 

Then I'll jump back in.

 

If the stockmarkets crash and pms go up, I'll buy in having missed some gains, but having taken some profit now and avoided the risk of (paper) losses if things crash I feel better.

 

The cash is in BV and Golmoney accounts....so just a couple of clicks away and I'll fill my boots!

 

Nick

[njpurser]

Hi Nick,

It's really describing my view on the long-term way gold moves. So when gold looks initially "overbought" would coincide with the sort of time I'd be looking at going more into gold than silver.

The end of that phase (as in "this is it"), would be the sort of time I'd be going more into silver.

 

Obviously if you can pick the best dip of the consolidation phase then that would be THE best time to move more into silver.

I'd have done that in Nov, when most people seemed rather upset at the falls, but I'd already picked an earlier dip

Often it's the first dip, but last time it wasn't

Thanks. I get it now!

 

Nick

[TrueNorth]

I have been crying in my beer over swapping silver for gold when the ratio hit 66 in August on the advice of my now ex-friend Bob Hoye . I have lost out on a lot of potential gains in silver, since I was heavily weighted that way. I console myself that I am still in PMs, and when the next crash comes, I will be buying silver with both hands. I bought the majority of my PMs post-crash last year, and was very fortunate it worked out that way.

[grumpy-old-man]

I think the stock markets will crash soon, taking pms down with them temporarily.

 

Then I'll jump back in.

 

If the stockmarkets crash and pms go up, I'll buy in having missed some gains, but having taken some profit now and avoided the risk of (paper) losses if things crash I feel better.

 

The cash is in BV and Golmoney accounts....so just a couple of clicks away and I'll fill my boots!

 

Nick

 

ah, ok Nick.

 

 

I still have a fair bit in my euro account (for me anyway), which I do not like & am feeling unhappy with this situation tbh.

 

edited - I think I will buy some more gold coins if/when the price dips with the carpot money as we don't intend to change the cars until next year anyway. I might as well give it a few weeks now though I suppose ??

[Pixel8r]

I think the stock markets will crash soon, taking pms down with them temporarily.

 

The cash is in BV and Golmoney accounts....so just a couple of clicks away and I'll fill my boots!

I am not so sure that if the stock markets crash again we will see PM's being sold in the same way as after Lehmans. The big financial organisations were under massive pressure when Lehmans went bust, they needed to sell whatever assets to raise funds to get out of contracts. I don't think they are in the same position now that they have the alphabet soup of bailout money.

 

So you sold physical to try and take advantage of a possible take down, which means you will need the price to go down by a fair amount to make up the commissions. I think a better way to do it with physical is just to chose the right times to swap between metals, to take advantage of the swings. Inflation surge = silver, deflation surge = gold or even more simply when gold is going up I try to be in more silver and when gold is going down more in gold.

 

The problem with selling any PM is what you then go into instead, fiat currencies move around a lot as well. FX trading is a very risky task to take on, it is very easy to get on the wrong side of movements. Keep it simple buy and hold PM.

 

 

 

 

[TrueNorth]

Well, I would get out of cash if it was me and I didn't need cash to buy the cars until next year. I don't like leaving much at all in cash.

[grumpy-old-man]

Well, I would get out of cash if it was me and I didn't need cash to buy the cars until next year. I don't like leaving much at all in cash.

 

I have been 'finger biting' for a few days now TrueNorth.

 

edited - just to clarify I am not working as I am training (still, long story to those that remember), so I have no wage going in atm.

[Pixel8r]

I still don't use the ratio. Sorry to you guys who do

 

Remember this thread:

 

Gold versus Silver, Volatility & Swapping

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3127

 

This is how I look at it:

 

I watch the gold price. If gold looks like it's reaching a "top" (ie if it's risen a lot and will probably consolidate for a year or two), then I would swap silver for gold.

If on the other hand I think the gold price is reaching the end of a consolidation phase, and could well rise for 6 months or more, than I;d swap gold for silver.

 

So this is the sort of chart I look at:

 

 

If I don't get the timing quite right I tend to stick with it and wait for the next likely turn.

I don't wobble rapidly backwards and forwards

Hi Steve,

 

Cool chart, thanks.

 

I use a very similar method to you for swapping. I try to pick points when the gold/silver ratio is high but also look at where I think the gold price is going. When gold is high try to move more into gold and when it is low more into silver. I also think the gold/silver ratio ties in quiet well with DrBubb's theory of manic swings, basically when we are on a deflation swing gold is best, but when on inflation silver rules. I also am only actually swapping about 30% of my total holding, in case things move against me. There is no point being greedy

 

 

[warpig]

You still might be right, just your/BH's timing slightly wrong. If I see confirmation that silver is being swept away with the stock market again, I will swap my silver for gold as a short term move. My fear is the stock market slide will not have the same effect on PM's as it did in Q4 '08. So many bullish things have happened to the silver market since then, it wouldn't surprise me if it's now quite resilient to deleveraging.

 

We should hopefully know in a couple of weeks.

 

I have been crying in my beer over swapping silver for gold when the ratio hit 66 in August on the advice of my now ex-friend Bob Hoye . I have lost out on a lot of potential gains in silver, since I was heavily weighted that way. I console myself that I am still in PMs, and when the next crash comes, I will be buying silver with both hands. I bought the majority of my PMs post-crash last year, and was very fortunate it worked out that way.

[AK72]

What U mean by many bullish things. I havent paid so much attention to silver since recently, but what else You think could soften the landing in silver other than chinese buing on dips?

[G0ldfinger]

... on the advice of my now ex-friend Bob Hoye . ...

:lol:

 

But seriously, keep us posted how Hoye's advice is working out.

 

The problem all these guys have is that you can't write a newsletter every week/month that just says "buy gold and silver and hold". So they encourage you to trade. So, naturally, sooner or later, you'll lose your shirt.

[romans holiday]

 

Well, things are getting interesting now with the ratio into the 50s. Lets hope there is one more big spending spree in the markets on the back of Bernanke's call that the recession is over.

 

I am jumping to gold at 50...odd.

[AK72]

I mashed together the 5year gold&silver charts to see how Au&Ag are related. Seems like we could be in a juncture where silver takes the lead IF the worsening overall economic situation doesn´t drag it down sooner or later near future, in which case odds favours owning more gold. Just figuring to diversify into silver @ some point in the future. The odds being 1) buying me in now and trusting the silver will lead this upleg or 2) staying with gold this upleg, watching the overall situation of economy near future, sell Gold into strenght and diversifying forecoming dip in silver (when ratio could be short period even favourable than now, could it?)

 

Any opinions on my logic?

[G0ldfinger]

... I am jumping to gold at 50...odd.

35, RH, 35. Or you might want to hold it all the way up to the 20-10 range.

[G0ldfinger]

... Any opinions on my logic?

Maybe this here helps with your decisions.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/Silv...BP_RPI-adj.html

[romans holiday]

35, RH, 35. Or you might want to hold it all the way up to the 20-10 range.

I have become quite attached to silver... so will hang onto a little at GM all the way.

 

I also have my collection of coins and bars at home. Will hang onto them.... I love giving a silver coin to nephews/nieces when I visit. I remember my grandfather giving my a five dollar note when I was a wee lad... which blew me away as was quite a bit of money a few decades back. My parents promptly "borrowed" it to fill up the car with gas.

 

A silver coin is more likely to go unspent.

[G0ldfinger]

... I love giving a silver coin to nephews/nieces when I visit.

I did that on Easter. Was fun.

[grumpy-old-man]

Maybe this here helps with your decisions.

 

 

that's the one that changed my mind on my ratio GF.

 

ok, history may not repeat, but silver has a lot to offer imho, especially from the mining/industrial use pov.

[AK72]

Maybe this here helps with your decisions.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/Silv...BP_RPI-adj.html

That was my 1st inspiration, GM was the second & timing will be my next. But what´s the right time? You can figure it out, but time will tell was it right or wrong. What a contradiction! That makes it even satisfying if U can win your doubts and be proven being on the right side.

[G0ldfinger]

that's the one that changed my mind on my ratio GF.

 

ok, history may not repeat, but silver has a lot to offer imho, especially from the mining/industrial use pov.

I would put it like this: the current set-up (with the huge short position) looks as if a similar spike (short squeeze) as in 1980 could be possible at some stage. Even if it won't happen, silver traded a long time at levels above 10 pounds, and the silver situation looks more bullish now then back then since the stuff gets used up in industrial applications. On top of that, I don't entirely believe the RPI numbers. Just look at what houses did over the same period.