warpig Posted August 22, 2011 Report Share Posted August 22, 2011 I developed Sarbanes Oxley data models for one of the banks at Canary Wharf some years ago. They all seemed very indoctrinated in to the financial system, I can't imagine convincing any of them in the benefits of gold... Good luck with that one! I still plan to ruin a few more dinner parties! It pays the bills. Switched from consulting firm and joined a big IBank. Ultimate hedge - salary and livelihood go great guns if they economy takes off again (or is QEd to death), banking jobs likely to be protected to the bitter end if things continue to turn down, and I have my physical if it goes totally pete tong. I also use my position to explain very clearly to everyone who will listen what I think is happening. And to some who aren't listening but are trapped with me. My wife thinks I ruin dinner parties. Edit: sinner parties are probably more fun but I meant dinner parties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted August 22, 2011 Report Share Posted August 22, 2011 Warpig, what comments did you get moderated on over at HPC? I missed the action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosworth Posted August 22, 2011 Report Share Posted August 22, 2011 I developed Sarbanes Oxley data models for one of the banks at Canary Wharf some years ago. They all seemed very indoctrinated in to the financial system, I can't imagine convincing any of them in the benefits of gold... Good luck with that one! I still plan to ruin a few more dinner parties! You'd be surprised. Most I work with are fairly open to new ideas. It's a fairly dynamic environment and people are always receptive to new ways of working. This extends into at least listening to contrary-systemic views. Acting on it is a different matter, but that's common challenge to all fiat-tastic civilians... All we can do is keep chipping away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosworth Posted August 22, 2011 Report Share Posted August 22, 2011 $1,900 been and gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted August 22, 2011 Report Share Posted August 22, 2011 PM sent. Warpig, what comments did you get moderated on over at HPC? I missed the action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted August 22, 2011 Report Share Posted August 22, 2011 Wow! $1,900 been and gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted August 22, 2011 Report Share Posted August 22, 2011 That's good and that's all you can hope for really. I worked with a lot of data monkeys and they were very set in their ways! You'd be surprised. Most I work with are fairly open to new ideas. It's a fairly dynamic environment and people are always receptive to new ways of working. This extends into at least listening to contrary-systemic views. Acting on it is a different matter, but that's common challenge to all fiat-tastic civilians... All we can do is keep chipping away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 1908. People are going to have a shock in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 This is quite worrying: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=133930&sn=Detail ''A sobering thought too for physical gold holders is that any government legislation aimed at protecting the central banks and their gold holdings from a growing move to take delivery of physical could also be extended to individuals' gold holdings. Could confiscation of gold be a step nearer again?'' if other countries also decide to have their gold repatriated. Nixon pt.2 with a twist. 'sorry, we don't have your gold but can pay with our dollar treasuries-which we have aplenty' dastardly snigger... Is it true the UK has 99 tonnes of Venezuela's gold? I wonder which other countries gold we have in 'storage'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlton Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 This is quite worrying: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=133930&sn=Detail ''A sobering thought too for physical gold holders is that any government legislation aimed at protecting the central banks and their gold holdings from a growing move to take delivery of physical could also be extended to individuals' gold holdings. Could confiscation of gold be a step nearer again?'' if other countries also decide to have their gold repatriated. Nixon pt.2 with a twist. 'sorry, we don't have your gold but can pay with our dollar treasuries-which we have aplenty' dastardly snigger... Is it true the UK has 99 tonnes of Venezuela's gold? I wonder which other countries gold we have in 'storage'? Possibilities like this form one of the best reasons to own mining stocks. I don't expect gold confiscation, but if it happened at least one would have one's miners. (Hopefully the miners are operating in safe jurisdictions.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lyb Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 A race between gold and platinum. Platinum prices probably supported by the rise of gold. Any bets who is going to cross 2000$ first ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlton Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Party over? (for a while) $1875.90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlton Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Size of Gold 'Bubble' Now an 'Absurdity': Analyst Having risen by a third since the beginning of 2011 and nearly fivefold since 2004, one analyst believes the precious metal is now in bubble territory and an "absurdity". "Gold is not money and has no investment yield and in fact incurs carrying/storage costs. With the 10 year US treasury rate at 2 percent and storage cost of 1-1.5 percent this implies an annual opportunity cost of 3-3.5 percent,” said John Wadle, the head of regional banks research at Mirae Asset in Hong Kong in a research note sent to CNBC on Tuesday. With global gold reserves now worth over $9 trillion and the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Index worth nearly a third of that level combined, Wadle believes gold is now a “bubble compared to US blue chip stocks”. http://www.cnbc.com/id/44237225 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TinBrick Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Party over? (for a while) $1875.90. This morning's London fix was $1,886.50, $9 higher than yesterday's p.m. fix - I don't think the fat lady has sung yet . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 DA - Your chart makes it look as if it's due a pullback, do you think that's likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 DA - Your chart makes it look as if it's due a pullback, do you think that's likely? Hi warpig - in the mid term, yes However, in the longer term (next few years) I think the chart portends a dramatic shift in price movement. A symmetry exists between 2001 - 2007 & 2007 - Now, in terms of the variance of price movement. As you can see this variance is now narrowing and hence gold has to eventually break this pattern. It will be interesting when it does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Hi warpig - in the mid term, yes However, in the longer term (next few years) I think the chart portends a dramatic shift in price movement. A symmetry exists between 2001 - 2007 & 2007 - Now, in terms of the variance of price movement. As you can see this variance is now narrowing and hence gold has to eventually break this pattern. It will be interesting when it does! to clarify: the narrowing of variance is % price movement over time 'a dramatic shift in price movement' from what we have seen since 2001, could be: 1) a flat price (such as a gold standard), 2) an upwards break through the log resistance (probably accompanied by a dramatic collapse of the $), 3) or a dramatic decline in the price of gold (such as following a multi-year peak) take your pick!, the point is, whatever's coming, it's coming soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosworth Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Few people on this site post what they do ahead of time. I want to change that so we can properly assess views. I cracked. Sold a chunk (about 20%) of my physical at $1876 this am. Enough to feel ok if it corrects. Not enough to feel I lost out if it soars. I normally time trades totally wrong so fingers crossed for everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Few people on this site post what they do ahead of time. I want to change that so we can properly assess views. I cracked. Sold a chunk (about 20%) of my physical at $1876 this am. Enough to feel ok if it corrects. Not enough to feel I lost out if it soars. I normally time trades totally wrong so fingers crossed for everyone else I'm waiting for 'the correction' to play out and sitting tight for now. I feel like I have enough physical so I'm waiting for the opportunity to buy a gold equity fund at a discount to current prices. My only question is Juniors or Majors? I'm undecided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlton Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Size of Gold 'Bubble' Now an 'Absurdity': Analyst Having risen by a third since the beginning of 2011 and nearly fivefold since 2004, one analyst believes the precious metal is now in bubble territory and an "absurdity". "Gold is not money and has no investment yield and in fact incurs carrying/storage costs. With the 10 year US treasury rate at 2 percent and storage cost of 1-1.5 percent this implies an annual opportunity cost of 3-3.5 percent,” said John Wadle, the head of regional banks research at Mirae Asset in Hong Kong in a research note sent to CNBC on Tuesday. With global gold reserves now worth over $9 trillion and the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Index worth nearly a third of that level combined, Wadle believes gold is now a “bubble compared to US blue chip stocks”. http://www.cnbc.com/id/44237225 He says global gold reserves, but what he's talking about is all gold ever mined not official reserves. 165,000 tonnes x $60.8 mln = $10.0 trillion However, the US official reserves are 8133 x $60.8 mln = $494 bln America's foreign held debt as of June 2011 was $4499 bln, so gold is currently providing about 10% cover. $4,499,000 mln / 260 mln ozt. = $17,303 (Jim Sinclair's equilibrium price) 100% cover is not necessary. One-third cover would be $5762. I think that remains a realistic target in light of the (official or unofficial) remonitization of gold. However, Waddle's problem is that he doesn't view gold as money. If gold isn't money then maybe he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 He says global gold reserves, but what he's talking about is all gold ever mined not official reserves. 165,000 tonnes x $60.8 mln = $10.0 trillion However, the US official reserves are 8133 x $60.8 mln = $494 bln America's foreign held debt as of June 2011 was $4499 bln, so gold is currently providing about 10% cover. $4,499,000 mln / 260 mln ozt. = $17,303 (Jim Sinclair's equilibrium price) 100% cover is not necessary. One-third cover would be $5762. I think that remains a realistic target in light of the (official or unofficial) remonitization of gold. However, Waddle's problem is that he doesn't view gold as money. If gold isn't money then maybe he's right. If we overshot beyond 100% in 1980, I can't help but think 40% is a conservative target for M1 coverage. To paraphrase Jim Rickards, I think we could get away with 40% with a structured, orderly transition. But if we go the chaotic route without massive international co-operation and a new Bretton Woods, then I think we're going way north of 100% and into bubble territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob monkhouse Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Gold noob here!. Anyway have thoughts on this? http://www.businessinsider.com/roubini-gold-is-in-a-bubble-2011-8?utm_source=twbutton&utm_medium=social&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=moneygame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Gold noob here!. Anyway have thoughts on this? http://www.businessinsider.com/roubini-gold-is-in-a-bubble-2011-8?utm_source=twbutton&utm_medium=social&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=moneygame He's a top-calling tosser who said $1,200 wasn't going to happen. He doesn't seem to understand the difference between the value-destruction and fraud undertaken at Pets.com et al and the re-emergence of the senior currency during the greatest monetary crisis in history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Gold-to-Oil Ratio is going parabolic again Has the GOLD Begun its CORRECTION ? The size of the Drop, and the Big volume today would suggest so... (Gold was: $1829.60 -68.50, vs. Peak of $1914 yesterday) GLD: $177.61 -$6.98 : GLD-chart Open: 182.245 / High: 183.82 / Low: 177.50 Volume: 53,856,087 Percent Change: -3.78% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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