Gatesy Posted October 5, 2008 Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 Usually, an increase in demand causes an increase in price, not the other way around? Agreed, but we have also hypothesised on here before that those owning the gold (CB's) to be leased may want a higher return for leasing out their gold given perceived increased current (counterparty) risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted October 5, 2008 Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 Agreed, but we have also hypothesised on here before that those owning the gold (CB's) to be leased may want a higher return for leasing out their gold given perceived increased current (counterparty) risks. Indeed. cf LIBOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted October 5, 2008 Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 Not hugely scientific, I appreciate ... But BullionVault's gold market trades 24x7, offering a (thinner) market during weekends, and other periods when COMEX is closed. This weekend price has drifted up. I had a buy order filled at noon yesterday that I can already sell for more than I paid for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 5, 2008 Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 Ker, I think you deserve a few of these for an excellent explanation and the work you've put in doing it. I don't trade Gold, but it's very interesting reading your explanation. No doubt this week will be very interesting. thank you guys! yes, lets see what happens, I give it 51% to bulls, 49% to bears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted October 5, 2008 Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 Obviously if China suddenly decides to turn their reserves into gold, all bets are off and shares ought to soar with the price of gold. But as a long term bet I worry that imminent peak oil factors with have a highly geared effect on energy-intensive operations like mining. Especially mining for PMs where you have to pan a lot of dirt to find a speck of gold. Andrew McP Interesting. China’s premier Wen Jiabao told the World Economic Forum’s ‘Summer Davos’ session in Tianjin that boosting sagging sentiment when the markets opened tomorrow would be a priority. ‘‘At this moment, confidence is even more precious than gold or any currencies,” he said. Riggers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 5, 2008 Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 Well, the GBP/USD just started up on IGIndex 1.50c lower at 1.7620 also, EUR/USD sharply lower: 1.3619 I'd say thats gonna knock Gold down a little from the open.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted October 5, 2008 Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 Well, the GBP/USD just started up on IGIndex 1.50c lower at 1.7620 also, EUR/USD sharply lower: 1.3619 I'd say thats gonna knock Gold down a little from the open.. That drop (in EUR/GBP) had occured before the end of trading friday - it's just carried over from then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 5, 2008 Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 That drop (in EUR/GBP) had occured before the end of trading friday - it's just carried over from then. ok, maybe my mistake- my last quote from Friday night was EUR/USD 1.3792 and GBP/USD 1.7733 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 5, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 ... China’s premier Wen Jiabao told the World Economic Forum’s ‘Summer Davos’ session in Tianjin that boosting sagging sentiment when the markets opened tomorrow would be a priority. ‘‘At this moment, confidence is even more precious than gold or any currencies,” he said. The Chinese still playing ball. That's so cute! Of course everyone konws that the Chinese confidence is the most important thing that needs to be conned here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 5, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 The Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...-the-abyss.html Financial Crisis: Now Germany takes hot seat as Europe falls into the abyss We face extreme danger. Unless there is immediate intervention on every front by all the major powers acting in concert, we risk a disintegration of global finance within days. Nobody will be spared, unless they own gold bars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted October 5, 2008 Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 JFC, that's more bearish than a bare assed bear in a bear enclosure. The Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...-the-abyss.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted October 5, 2008 Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 The Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...-the-abyss.html Awsome! Funny that could almost have been written by cgnao! Errol has a thread over at HPC saying that theres a 95% chance of collapse in the next 10 days and they all mock him. The telegraph article wiped the smirk off their faces! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest foobar Posted October 5, 2008 Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 Hi Guys, this is my first post here, I'm a convert from HPC, I see this site as a distillation of the quality posters from HPC There is a wild scramble for dollars as a $10 trillion pyramid of global lending based on dollar balance sheets “delevers” with a vengeance. It looks like we will see more drops for gold as this plays out? Has anyone noticed the thin trading warnings on BullionVault? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted October 5, 2008 Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 Hi Guys, this is my first post here, I'm a convert from HPC, I see this site as a distillation of the quality posters from HPC It looks like we will see more drops for gold as this plays out? Has anyone noticed the thin trading warnings on BullionVault? Welcome to GEI. There's some talk about BV here http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4469 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 5, 2008 Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 It looks like we will see more drops for gold as this plays out? Has anyone noticed the thin trading warnings on BullionVault? Where was your quote from? have you got a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 5, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 It looks as if there was a physical shortage in New York. Or people in the US are simply desperate for gold right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicejim Posted October 5, 2008 Report Share Posted October 5, 2008 It looks as if there was a physical shortage in New York. Or people in the US are simply desperate for gold right now. Spread in NY is £2.73 or $165 Spread in Zurich is $1.15 or £17.01 Why the different spread in different currencies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 6, 2008 Report Share Posted October 6, 2008 I don't know where to post this ! US$JPY is dropping quite fast. Now 103.61. Amazingly gold hasn't moved. If anything a slight fall :blink: GBPJPY is also dropping, at 181.93. NZ$ is also dropping NZ$JPY down to 67.25. EURJPY is aklso down to 140.79. So the JPY must be rising, and all the debt currencies are falling. You'd expect gold to be passing the moon at this point ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy Posted October 6, 2008 Report Share Posted October 6, 2008 I don't know where to post this ! US$JPY is dropping quite fast. Now 103.61. Amazingly gold hasn't moved. If anything a slight fall :blink: GBPJPY is also dropping, at 181.93. NZ$ is also dropping NZ$JPY down to 67.25. EURJPY is aklso down to 140.79. So the JPY must be rising, and all the debt currencies are falling. You'd expect gold to be passing the moon at this point ! I know this has been touched on here and on the financial sense but are we witnessing a massive short squeeze in USD - and to a lesser extent in GBP? Todays moves, particularly the one I've been watching which is the AUD - have been pretty spectacular. edit: not a literal short squeeze, just a rush to buy $ to pay down $ denominated debt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 6, 2008 Report Share Posted October 6, 2008 I know this has been touched on here and on the financial sense but are we witnessing a massive short squeeze in USD - and to a lesser extent in GBP? Todays moves, particularly the one I've been watching which is the AUD - have been pretty spectacular. edit: not a literal short squeeze, just a rush to buy $ to pay down $ denominated debt I hadn't looked at the AUD. Yes you ain't kidding !!! It's dropped faster than the NZ$, and that has been pretty dramatic My view for a long time has been that there would be a massive flow of money back to Yen. Money that was used to buy US$ and then US stocks etc. Likewise NZ$ & AUD & GBP. But why is gold "stuck in the mud" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 6, 2008 Report Share Posted October 6, 2008 As posted on forex thread: Yen Unbeatable as Credit Market Seizure Proves the `Carry Trade Is Dead' The same credit market collapse that drove Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy and sent bank borrowing costs in Europe to record highs is making the yen unbeatable. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...;refer=currency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpTheKhyber Posted October 6, 2008 Report Share Posted October 6, 2008 But why is gold "stuck in the mud" ? I guess you just answered your own question there Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lifechooser Posted October 6, 2008 Report Share Posted October 6, 2008 My thoughts; Gold is being heavily sold by banks, who need cash to keep themselves afloat. This is suppressing the price on the global market, as the mints (representing the private buyers) can only process a certain amount each day into coins and small bars, so will only buy a set amount. Soon, there will be a complete detachment of prices, and dealers will offer to buy coins for more than spot. As soon as the bank crisis is solved either one way or the other, the forced injection of large gold bars onto the market will end and we will get a moon shot in the spot price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted October 6, 2008 Report Share Posted October 6, 2008 I thought it would be easier to let the gold price rise now, so the gold in the vaults starts to rebuild the balance sheets [as central banks are the largest holders of gold anyway] Much easier than all this buying and selling stuff - okay looks like they want to play it the hard way. Or are they looking for another wealth transfer from the poor and the middle class? A controlled selling by central banks. Let more suckers into buying gold at the top in the future, let gold drop, they buy it back again at rock bottom. How much more blood can they get out of a stone? I m not amused! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted October 6, 2008 Report Share Posted October 6, 2008 The gold oil ratio looks to be making a decisive move from the mid 7s and low 8s of late $831/oz / $86 barrel = 9.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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