enrieb Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 Just for info. Posted by "MAGNUM P.M.'s twin bro" on GIM http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=25897 Good video, I like the point he makes about the bailouts But the huge money that has already gone in, and will continue to go in. Once you've opened that gate you can't close it, because of the psychological impact of closing it. Monty is suggesting we go to somewhere between 20 trillion, I had though somewhere in the area of 17. Truth to be known is neither of us know." So does anyone have any limit in mind for the amount of money the government are going to throw into the hole? It may be a good question to ask those who put forth the deflationary argument. What would happen if the government said no more? I think Sinclair's figure of 17-20 trillion seems realistic, I personally don't see a limit to the amount of cash they are going to throw at this problem. Its also important to think about how a figure like a trillion (which seems a huge amount now) will be seen in say 10 years time. A decade ago a billion seemed like a huge amount of money, earlier in the century the super wealthy were millionaires, now they give that away in quiz shows. So, who wants to be a billionaire? How long until the first billion pound football player? assuming the pound is still around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 Forget tupperware parties! We have gold parties [though with a twist] now for the suburban housewives! http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1047978201&play=1 Trust the Americans to put a positive spin on what is in reality wealth destruction. I could imagine, viewers in India being appalled at such scenes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lyb Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 I have been following the very informative discussion on gold here on GEI for a long time. I started investing in PM since 2005, thanks to Dr Bubb, and have been watching closely the gold market. I primarily use the buy and hold principle and do not plan to add to my investment (already>80% invested in gold, silver and PM stocks with excellent, indifferent and bad results correspondingly) but would consider trading small fractions at appropriate times, although I have no trading experience. My impression so far has been that the market fluctuations are analogous to 2007 and gold may consolide in the 900's range until the next wave up in September. The surges appear to have a period of 2 years, thus the surge in spring of 2006 was followed by consolidation in 2007 and the surge in spring of 2008 may also be expected to be followed by consolidation in 2009. This expectation is based on the fact that the demand is still primarily driven by the jewellery sector, not investment, and jewellery demand increases only when prices are stable. The gold price stability in 2007 resulted in sharp increase of demand by India and this was necessary for the next investment driven wave up in 2008. This view is not inconsistent with DrBubb's view that a revisit to 850 is possible and we may have already seen the high point this spring. I noticed, however, yesterday a small inconsistency which could be important. In February 2007, the gold price was close to the 200DMA. In analogy the current correction should lead to 850 (which is approximately the current 200DMA level). But the latest COT report, showed a sharp increase in commercial longs and the HUI over the last two days was stable despite the reduction in the gold price. Is the correction over and might we break the 1000 level again?. That would break the analogy which I tried to draw. Perhaps, it is dangerous to draw conclusions on the basis of a single cot report, or the significance of the report is overemphasized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 I have been following the very informative discussion on gold here on GEI for a long time. I started investing in PM since 2005, thanks to Dr Bubb, and have been watching closely the gold market. I primarily use the buy and hold principle and do not plan to add to my investment (already>80% invested in gold, silver and PM stocks with excellent, indifferent and bad results correspondingly) but would consider trading small fractions at appropriate times, although I have no trading experience. My impression so far has been that the market fluctuations are analogous to 2007 and gold may consolide in the 900's range until the next wave up in September. The surges appear to have a period of 2 years, thus the surge in spring of 2006 was followed by consolidation in 2007 and the surge in spring of 2008 may also be expected to be followed by consolidation in 2009. This expectation is based on the fact that the demand is still primarily driven by the jewellery sector, not investment, and jewellery demand increases only when prices are stable. The gold price stability in 2007 resulted in sharp increase of demand by India and this was necessary for the next investment driven wave up in 2008. This view is not inconsistent with DrBubb's view that a revisit to 850 is possible and we may have already seen the high point this spring. I noticed, however, yesterday a small inconsistency which could be important. In February 2007, the gold price was close to the 200DMA. In analogy the current correction should lead to 850 (which is approximately the current 200DMA level). But the latest COT report, showed a sharp increase in commercial longs and the HUI over the last two days was stable despite the reduction in the gold price. Is the correction over and might we break the 1000 level again?. That would break the analogy which I tried to draw. Perhaps, it is dangerous to draw conclusions on the basis of a single cot report, or the significance of the report is overemphasized. Yes, this is the one piece of jigsaw that isn't in place. COT report is not suggesting a major correction here, nor i at levels consistent with the annual shake-out. The conclusion I draw is that this correction should not be too disastrous. I agree with your view of gold's two year pattern: 6- to 9-month surge followed by 12- to 18-month consolidation. A possible scenario: we go back to 850 , we rally weakly to say mid 900s , we go back to high 800s , then to lower mid 900s , by the summer gold fever has died off again, gold is sitting on 52 week moving average somewhere around 900, some have lost interest in gold, nobody can understand why gold isn't higher given crap economic news, Dr Bubb posts a long-term chart suggesting gold has to make a move here or it is over, it makes a low in July-August and we get our next 6- to 9-month rally, which takes us to Sinclair's $1650 on a spike. It then corrects sharply to $1030, everyone screams manipulation and we have another 18 months of consolidation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
creditcrunch Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 More media attention! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...rates-fall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 Forget tupperware parties! We have gold parties [though with a twist] now for the suburban housewives! http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1047978201&play=1 Trust the Americans to put a positive spin on what is in reality wealth destruction. I could imagine, viewers in India being appalled at such scenes. what's that thing she's using to test the gold content of the jewelry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cambio Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 More media attention! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...rates-fall.html A little evidence perhaps we may be in for a speculative rise in Gold - the telegraph have an entire section dedicated to investing in gold, full of recent articles, even charting the weekly market fluctuations. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...investing/gold/ It appears to be the next buzz amongst the dinner party discussions. Several years too late as always but could be interesting. If things do work out in a CGNAO style outcome then at least some more people will have protection courtesy of the media. But the cynic in me says someone will be pushing this for their own ends and people will get burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 A little evidence perhaps we may be in for a speculative rise in Gold - the telegraph have an entire section dedicated to investing in gold, full of recent articles, even charting the weekly market fluctuations. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...investing/gold/ It appears to be the next buzz amongst the dinner party discussions. Several years too late as always but could be interesting. If things do work out in a CGNAO style outcome then at least some more people will have protection courtesy of the media. But the cynic in me says someone will be pushing this for their own ends and people will get burned. GOLD - The Original and Best Bubble. For all those people that think that Gold's value will collapse, please think about this. Gold has infinite demand. Everyone wants to be rich and have lot's of money. Everyone wants to be powerful. Gold is money. In the days before 1971 this was gold's function. Fiat on the otherhand was born from a lie. Those who had no gold, had to work hard for a living. Now don't think of Gold as something that follows the earlier posted chart of the different phases of an asset class. Rather, think that Gold is the CONSTANT that everything else is measured against. That new iPhone is very nice. It will go through all those phases over it's lifetime. Apple know this and will develop a newer model in time, with more features. Old one dies, new one booms. If Apple get the timing wrong, new competitors will appear. This is the free market in action. In the same way you can think of 'fiat' money. 'Fiat' has had it's New Paradigm moment and the only way is down folks. Now let's think about that major liar 'Sir' Fred Goodwin. He knows the score. He knows he has lots of 'fiat' paper. Why do you think he milked RBS? Why won't he give back his pension? Because he knows that when we go 'The Way of Zimbabwe' he will need every penny he can get. People need to see the Credit Crunch as the SOLUTION and NOT THE PROBLEM. Now, don't think that getting rid of fiat will be easy. It will not be suddenly toppled from it's throne. Every country in the world has a vested interest in keeping their 'fiat' going. The only thing I would like you to contemplate is that deceit and lies create very good liars. Honest money will create a more just and fair society. From the truth you get truthful people. Is honesty 'really' the best policy in today's society? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 A little evidence perhaps we may be in for a speculative rise in Gold - the telegraph have an entire section dedicated to investing in gold, full of recent articles, even charting the weekly market fluctuations. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...investing/gold/ It appears to be the next buzz amongst the dinner party discussions. Several years too late as always but could be interesting. If things do work out in a CGNAO style outcome then at least some more people will have protection courtesy of the media. But the cynic in me says someone will be pushing this for their own ends and people will get burned. When I first got into gold, it still seemed a wacky thing to do. Now its much more in the media but the price hasent risen much to reflect this. Ive noticed that difference on ebay. I bid on lots of gold and silver bullion but now I rarely win anything. About a year ago stuff slipped through the net and I'd get a bargain but not anymore as there are many more bidders. My view is that house prices will fall but be met by inflation, so they wont fall as much as some would hope. Gold is sensitive to inflation and that will rocket before the housing market reacts much. A couple of estate agents have commented that some buyers have recently bought as they are nervous about having large sums in the bank. The start of a rush to hard assets? This does make me worry that house prices will go back up but gold will go up much more first. The wife and I have almost decided to continue renting for the next 18 months rather than buy a house in the next 6 months. Saw a nice house today for £600k http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...artRent%3Dfalse Might put in an offer in a year or so if its still available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 I think everyone agrees that part of the reason house prices are falling is because of a contraction in credit. Is it possible that the same thing could happen to Comex gold. Margin requirements for gold were increased last September (effectively a reduction in credit), interestingly this was done on the heels of the largest increase in price in 9 years. I am concerned that the powers that be could do this again, to try and curtail further price increases. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...fer=commodities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 ... Might put in an offer in a year or so if its still available. Put your offer in now and say, "Keep my number, the offer remains on the table" BTW, have you got Property Bee? £50K has already been knocked off it already. It looks pretty good value compared to the houses round may way. EDIT: I just saw your name on the Bee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 Put your offer in now and say, "Keep my number, the offer remains on the table" BTW, have you got Property Bee? £50K has already been knocked off it already. It looks pretty good value compared to the houses round may way. I got property bee, I know he come down £50k. I think he might be in trouble financially so may need a quick sale. He might get lucky with a buyer. really the place is worth £450,000 IMO in the current market. Could go down to £300,000 if the market is allowed, which I doubt, to correct back to normal levels. Edit: Buzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted February 28, 2009 Report Share Posted February 28, 2009 GOLD - The Original and Best Bubble. For all those people that think that Gold's value will collapse, please think about this. Gold has infinite demand. Everyone wants to be rich and have lot's of money. Everyone wants to be powerful. Gold is money. In the days before 1971 this was gold's function. Fiat on the otherhand was born from a lie. Those who had no gold, had to work hard for a living. Now don't think of Gold as something that follows the earlier posted chart of the different phases of an asset class. Rather, think that Gold is the CONSTANT that everything else is measured against. That new iPhone is very nice. It will go through all those phases over it's lifetime. Apple know this and will develop a newer model in time, with more features. Old one dies, new one booms. If Apple get the timing wrong, new competitors will appear. This is the free market in action. In the same way you can think of 'fiat' money. 'Fiat' has had it's New Paradigm moment and the only way is down folks. Now let's think about that major liar 'Sir' Fred Goodwin. He knows the score. He knows he has lots of 'fiat' paper. Why do you think he milked RBS? Why won't he give back his pension? Because he knows that when we go 'The Way of Zimbabwe' he will need every penny he can get. People need to see the Credit Crunch as the SOLUTION and NOT THE PROBLEM. Now, don't think that getting rid of fiat will be easy. It will not be suddenly toppled from it's throne. Every country in the world has a vested interest in keeping their 'fiat' going. The only thing I would like you to contemplate is that deceit and lies create very good liars. Honest money will create a more just and fair society. From the truth you get truthful people. Is honesty 'really' the best policy in today's society? I m sure Fred will be buying gold and tin foil hats. He knew how to ride the bubble to the top - I'm sure he knows whats coming next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 1, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 This it what houses did in 1980 (in gold terms). 60 oz was the absolute (daily) bottom. http://gold.approximity.com/1979-1980/UK_H...es_in_Gold.html And this here is what they did in silver (1,000 oz). http://gold.approximity.com/1979-1980/UK_H..._in_Silver.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catflap Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 Thanks for posting those excellent charts G0ldfinger, much appreciated. ANYONE WHO HAS GOLD ETF's PLEASE READ THIS: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9030.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 And this here is what they did in silver (1,000 oz). f*** me a house for 1,000oz silver! it cost me less than £7,000 to aquire my first 1,000 oz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 [...] That new iPhone is very nice. It will go through all those phases over it's lifetime. I don't follow this. Didn't the iPhone begin in the Mania Phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 f*** me a house for 1,000oz silver! it cost me less than £7,000 to aquire my first 1,000 oz If an average house drops to, say, £90k, that's £90/oz! I wouldn't complain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6v6 Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 Could go down to £300,000 if the market is allowed, which I doubt, to correct back to normal levels. I'm as bearish as they come when it comes to UK property, but I'll eat my hat if houses like that are ever going for 300k - there's just too many moneyed up mid-older generation people with loads of equity & cash reserves. Your estimate of 450k sounds more realistic IMHO. Hell, I'm a FTB (been waiting for 9 years mind ) and could probably just about stretch to 300k (not that I intend to) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 I'm as bearish as they come when it comes to UK property, but I'll eat my hat if houses like that are ever going for 300k - there's just too many moneyed up mid-older generation people with loads of equity & cash reserves. Your estimate of 450k sounds more realistic IMHO. Hell, I'm a FTB (been waiting for 9 years mind ) and could probably just about stretch to 300k (not that I intend to) If the banks returned to 3 x lending then you would be looking at a house that someone on £80,000 could afford. 3 x £80k =£240K + £60k deposit. £80 thousand is a good wage I'm sure you would agree. As I said, I doubt the banks could stomach that kind of asset deflation and will meet it with currency devaluation at the expense of savers. :unsure:So whilst the house may fall to £450,000 and not rise for some years,(assuming it stayed on the market) inflation will rise to complete the 50%+ drop in price from the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sylvester Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 I don't follow this. Didn't the iPhone begin in the Mania Phase? I think it's slightly different for new products. We used to see the stealth stage as when we were initially testing prototypes and conducting user trials, then 'awareness' was akin to just after the product launch with purchasers who will buy a sexy product no matter what it costs (early adopters). Mania occurs usually after the price is reduced a bit to make it more palatable for your average consumer. Of course, with good secrecy, obsessive fans and excellent marketing (all of which Apple have) no one knows about the first stage and the second passes in a blink of an eye as most apple consumers are maniacal about the brand and products. Not saying that Mac users are maniacs of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 If the banks returned to 3 x lending then you would be looking at a house that someone on £80,000 could afford. 3 x £80k =£240K + £60k deposit. £80 thousand is a good wage I'm sure you would agree. As I said, I doubt the banks could stomach that kind of asset deflation and will meet it with currency devaluation at the expense of savers. I don't think that 300K for that house is over optimistic. If the current average wage is 24k then the average house should be 3.5 x 24 = 84K, but as of the end of Feb it was 156K. House prices then have to drop another 47% to get back to the norm, so 53% of 600K is 318K. It's either that or wages go up. Forget the monied up middle managers nearly ready to retire. A friend of mine has a similar house, Z4 & 2007 Landrover for the wife, etc. His pensions with three different firms have basically collapsed, his debt is getting to the point of breaking, he can't sell his current house, he's f&^ked and so are too many more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 It's either that or wages go up. Or a bit of both I think. I doubt there are that many people with large sums in cash in the bank. Im sure there will be more properties for sale than cash rich buyers. Whats the average property, 3 bed semi for £156K? It should be about £75K or 100 ounces of gold (to get back on topic) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicejim Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 I don't follow this. Didn't the iPhone begin in the Mania Phase? That chart is for an investment but the iphne is a product. Product lifecycle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted March 1, 2009 Report Share Posted March 1, 2009 Gold is not an investment so charts of that kind do not apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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