frizzers Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 920-30 is proving a real hurdle that we must get above and stay above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction 9 October 2008 By Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1223572331.php He covers quite a few major points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 920-30 is proving a real hurdle that we must get above and stay above 920.9 is exactly the 76.4% level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 It may not be obvious quite how important the Yen carry trade is. The last article has this in it. Well worth reading in full: While the fear of more CDS explosions in the future is freezing-up the global credit markets, the other weapon of mass destruction in the global markets is the unwinding of “yen carry” trades. The Japanese yen has been a star performer on the currency markets over the past few weeks, even with Japan’s economy sliding deep into a recession, amid slumping exports, and the Nikkei-225 Index is plunging far below the psychological 10,000-level for the first time in five-years. The Japanese yen has been the only currency to climb against the US-Dollar since August 1st, even while the US$ has moved sharply higher against the Euro and other major foreign currencies. In fact, the yen’s best gains have been against the higher-yielding currencies, the traditional targets of “carry trade” investors. The yen is +36% higher against the Brazilian real, +29% against the Australian dollar, +33% against the New Zealand kiwi, +16% vs the British pound, and zoomed +18% higher against the Euro, over the past nine weeks. Traditionally, bubbles emerge in hotbeds of speculation, such as the commodity or stock markets. Some glaring examples this year were the spectacular rise and fall of the Shanghai stock market and the wild gyrations of crude oil and soybeans. But the yen’s latest rally represents the busting of another bubble, this time in the currency markets. Japan sits at the epicenter of “bubble-mania” in the currency markets, and its yield starved investors plowed $6-trillion of their savings overseas. Japanese investors increased their exposure to overseas assets by 59-trillion yen ($566 billion) last year, to a record 610-trillion yen ($5.9 trillion), making Japan the world’s largest creditor nation for the 17th straight year. In addition, global speculators borrowed $1.2 trillion worth of Japanese yen, in order to buy higher yielding currencies, commodities, and stocks held abroad. Because of historically high oil prices, Persian Gulf sovereign wealth funds belonging to Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, amassed $1.5 trillion at the end of last year. Yet that’s only one-fourth the size of assets held overseas by Japanese investors, making the “yen carry” trade one of the most feared weapons of mass destruction in global currency, commodity and stock markets. That's why I watch the US$JPY and EURJPY rates so much. Edited to add: I also think that's why the GoldJPY rate is important. Just think of the huge amount of Yen that can be moving into/out of gold ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 A mate of mine sent me this today - sorry, he did not include a link so no idea who's 'thought for the day' it is! Very nice reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 920.9 is exactly the 76.4% level ... It's exactly where Hank and Ben sit on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 i believe we are very close to the end of the USD rally, the key factors for the reversal are: - bottom in the stock market - bottom in the currency pairs, which in USD/CAD & AUD/USD is likely to be right now and with posibility to bottom next week in other currencies - bottom in oil, which is technically deeply oversold, and the reversal may happen anytime. (75 oil is the lowest point in the downtrend channel) so, i think it is going to be next week, and my position is , that "this is it" for the dollar. an ABC up and a new downtrend. we may be starting the first wave next week, and the 3rd wave, the strong one, right after the elections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 i believe we are very close to the end of the USD rally, the key factors for the reversal are: - bottom in the stock market - bottom in the currency pairs, which in USD/CAD & AUD/USD is likely to be right now and with posibility to bottom next week in other currencies - bottom in oil, which is technically deeply oversold, and the reversal may happen anytime. (75 oil is the lowest point in the downtrend channel) so, i think it is going to be next week, and my position is , that "this is it" for the dollar. an ABC up and a new downtrend. we may be starting the first wave next week, and the 3rd wave, the strong one, right after the elections. Ker, your posts are among the highlights of GEI for me. I am much less of a TA skeptic than I was say a year ago. I would be very interested on your view of this. Above, you say that oil is technically deeply oversold, and yet in the physical market, inventories are rising, and are above average for the time of year. So oil looks if anything slightly overbought in the physical market. How should I reconcile these facts? In a major, multiyear bear, would things tend to look a bit technically oversold all of the way down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Ker, your posts are among the highlights of GEI for me. I am much less of a TA skeptic than I was say a year ago. I would be very interested on your view of this. Above, you say that oil is technically deeply oversold, and yet in the physical market, inventories are rising, and are above average for the time of year. So oil looks if anything slightly overbought in the physical market. How should I reconcile these facts? In a major, multiyear bear, would things tend to look a bit technically oversold all of the way down? That is US inventories, you would need to compare this to every other consuming country's inventories. The US are consuming less, there can be little doubt, but is this drop in consumption being offset by emerging countries increase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 That is US inventories, you would need to compare this to every other consuming country's inventories. The US are consuming less, there can be little doubt, but is this drop in consumption being offset by emerging countries increase? There is little evidence I can find for that - most are predicting dropping global demand, and OPEC are starting to talk about supply reduction, but I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 HAVING MISSED THE CHANCE to sell Gold and gold shares in July on the somewhat similar move above $900, I wanted to consider what is different about the current move up in Gold In July: + There was a lingering gap up above the market (at about $950) that wanted filling + The rally came on moderate volume and was "weakened" by various gaps on the way up + The Gold price was led higher by strong oil prices (rising to WTI-$146) + Oil peaked just before gold, and fell sharply, triggering a flight from commodities + Deleveraging of commodity funds, meant they "had to sell something", and gold was most liquid Now, from the $734 low: + This rally was kicked off by huge volume + Internal dynamics are strong, with the rally up (wave 1), corrected with a healthy retracement (wave 2) + Gold may be in a strong and powerful upthrust, which would be confirmed by big volume as it vaults resistance + Gold lease rates are high (near xx%) + There is a huge amount of fear in equity markets, and strong demand for physical gold NEGATIVE NOW : Seasonality. many gold highs come in early October ALSO: Some think Gold will slide back when Libor and VIX ease. I believe easing in those will begin before the end of October, and it could be rapid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Taking a beating at the minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Taking a beating at the minute. Let's see what happens when the DOW opens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dramatic Exit Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 And here's me, in a few days, heading to the US for a week on business. Wonder if I'll get back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 A mate of mine sent me this today - sorry, he did not include a link so no idea who's 'thought for the day' it is! That's from the Fat Prophets www.fatprophets.co.uk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 i think we will have a pullback to around 850 area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 So, towards the end of a dreadful week for the stock markets, the PoG has managed to shuffle it's way up to the dizzy heights of $925/oz, and now, the DOW shows a hint of rebelliousness and it gold slinks off with its tail between its legs? It's all a bit disappointing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Something weird seems to be going on... There doesn't appear to be any gold for sale in New York vaults through BV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Bush to announce that gold sales/ownership is illegal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Hatter Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Aaaargh - what's happening to the spreads in Zurich! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radge Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Huge (£600/Kg) spreads opening up on BV as well. Looks like the 'haves' are intent on hanging on to it, sod what the spot price falls to! I wonder if everyone is waiting for the announcement of the Lehman CDS auctions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicejim Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Something weird seems to be going on... There doesn't appear to be any gold for sale in New York vaults through BV... Saw that earlier in the day too, then the buy price came back shortly after. Nothing selling in NY for £ at the moment but $970.43 gets you an ounce. Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Hatter Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 There's hardly any quantity below £17,870 in Zurich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 And Bush says 'nothing'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Hatter Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 I get the impression that no private sellers are in the market at all and it's just the BV bots at each price point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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