drbubb Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 VIX TOPS 30 !! VIX CBOE JUMBO VOLATILITY INDEX Last [Tick] 30.75[ - ] Change 2.27 % Change 7.97% Open 28.47 Day High 30.79 Day Low 28.47 Previous Close 28.48 == SSO ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES Last [Tick] 54.41[ + ] Change -1.96 % Change -3.48% Open 55.6500 Volume 3,945,427 Day High 55.6500 Day Low 54.0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 That's generally how the market gets you. Makes it look like it will never pull back and forces you to get in too high. Just as you do a smackdown miraculously appears and you end up far underwater. Then the market moves down a little further, making you believe that the upmove was a fake and that the next fall will be massive - so you sell. Then you get an explosive upmove. Don't fall into the trap, don't buy strength. This is why you need to build core positions during the corrections, you can just sit back and wait for the big drops without any fear of missing out. I sold almost all of my speculative longs this morning, just leaving my core and physical holdings. I'm ready for the market to pullaway further, it won't bother me as I'll still be making profit. I'm also ready for the market to make a dramatic pullback, where I'll start making more speculative buys in expectation of the uptrend continuing. Buying those NY trading session bloodbaths makes money, that's the bottom line. I think the current drop kind of proves my point. Edit: Hadn't looked at oil. Down over $7 on my screen. What the hell caused that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 I think the current drop kind of proves my point. Excellent. I didn't want to allude to it earlier... but I was kinda "under invested". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Excellent. I didn't want to allude to it earlier... but I was kinda "under invested". Is this support at 18.75 silver a good in or wil we penetrate that support before legging up again ??? (Double top in oil by the way?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 I think the current drop kind of proves my point. Edit: Hadn't looked at oil. Down over $7 on my screen. What the hell caused that? those PPT guys are really pushing the buttons, aren't they? EDIT Nymex showing LightSweet down USD2.42 at 142.76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Not today then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Is this support at 18.75 silver a good in or wil we penetrate that support before legging up again ??? (Double top in oil by the way?) I'm not sure. I want a better entry point to be honest. Today's NY close may offer a few more clues so I'll hold off until tomorrow before making any decisions. We've had a euphoric run-up, but once fear takes hold the falls can be sharp and brutal. But don't lose perspective, they will only wipe out a few days gains. Be ready to buy once the volume dries up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 I think the current drop kind of proves my point. Edit: Hadn't looked at oil. Down over $7 on my screen. What the hell caused that? Ben is on Bloomberg at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 I'm not sure. I want a better entry point to be honest. Today's NY close may offer a few more clues so I'll hold off until tomorrow before making any decisions. We've had a euphoric run-up, but once fear takes hold the falls can be sharp and brutal. But don't lose perspective, they will only wipe out a few days gains. Be ready to buy once the volume dries up. Where are you getting you're intraday volume info Marceau? Are you looking at SLV amongst other things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Can't believe crude oil down by $10 ! Gold bitchslapped but wasn't a surprise . . . Gotta time . . . this . . . just . . . right . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbear Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 those PPT guys are really pushing the buttons, aren't they? EDIT Nymex showing LightSweet down USD2.42 at 142.76 Gold was Fed-whacked too in the last 30 minutes of London trading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Can't believe crude oil down by $10 ! Gold bitchslapped but wasn't a surprise . . . Gotta time . . . this . . . just . . . right . . . I think gold got off lightly and is pretty much level with yesterday's close. Silver, on the other hand, lived up to its volatile reputation and took us below Sunday evening's open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbear Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Can't believe crude oil down by $10 ! Gold bitchslapped but wasn't a surprise . . . Gotta time . . . this . . . just . . . right . . . Maybe but why not just relax and accumulate. By the end of this mess micro-second timing will look irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Traveller Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Maybe but why not just relax and accumulate. By the end of this mess micro-second timing will look irrelevant. Agree but always feels better when you can bag a bargain... Glad silver took a whack, wanted to add some soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Gold was Fed-whacked too in the last 30 minutes of London trading. Just checked in... ...ha! Is that the best you can do PPT? Gold rose by over 100 in a week or so, and your best effort today knocked it back to where we started this morning. Now get back in your box, lick your Freddie and Fannie wounds, and let us rebuild to finish over 975 by bedtime (which is what I think will now happen) In all seriousness: after so many days of spectacular gains, this mild knockback is actually quite pathetic. Even more so when you realise oil has fallen today. I now suspect we'll see 2-3 weeks of ranging between 960 and 1000 (or 950 if the PPT dare to use up loads more ammo), bumping up against that ceiling several times before it yields just in time for the August/September rally to [pick a number and double it!] The UKs June CPI was 3.8%, and the inflation story is in the public's center of attention. Oil speculators starting to loose money So the perfect storm is brewing: - recent rally has restored much confidence in gold - assault on 1000 underway - Autumn strong period almost upon us - oil speculators starting to look for the next bubble - inflation rising rapidly in percentage terms and in public awareness EDIT: "...finish over 975 by bedtime (which is what I think will now happen)" ...in the 10 minutes it took me to write the above posting, my prediction started to come true - honest, no cheating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Maybe but why not just relax and accumulate. By the end of this mess micro-second timing will look irrelevant. I couldn't agree more - 10, 20, 50 even $100 either way will not make much difference in the long run if this bull run has the legs we think it does. I have not tried to trade any of it although I have to admit watching the drop from $1030 back to $850 was less than heartening - but I did manage to load up on a bit more at that price! I know Jim says we'll go mad if we watch the tape all day - but it is fascinating isn't it? Looks like the PPT are struggling a bit atm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Just checked in... ...ha! Is that the best you can do PPT? Gold rose by over 100 in a week or so, and your best effort today knocked it back to where we started this morning. Now get back in your box, lick your Freddie and Fannie wounds, and let us rebuild to finish over 975 by bedtime (which is what I think will now happen) In all seriousness: after so many days of spectacular gains, this mild knockback is actually quite pathetic. Even more so when you realise oil has fallen today. I now suspect we'll see 2-3 weeks of ranging between 960 and 1000 (or 950 if the PPT dare to use up loads more ammo), bumping up against that ceiling several times before it yields just in time for the August/September rally to [pick a number and double it!] The UKs June CPI was 3.8%, and the inflation story is in the public's center of attention. Oil speculators starting to loose money So the perfect storm is brewing: - recent rally has restored much confidence in gold - assault on 1000 underway - Autumn strong period almost upon us - oil speculators starting to look for the next bubble - inflation rising rapidly in percentage terms and in public awareness Spot on assessment bigt. It won't be long now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Where are you getting you're intraday volume info Marceau? Are you looking at SLV amongst other things? Check the volume after trading is over, the info is available all over the internet for free, this will also allow you to make a clear headed assessment once the dust has settled. I find ETFs a good info source but don't hold them, there's something about their governance which smells distinctly fishy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 I couldn't agree more - 10, 20, 50 even $100 either way will not make much difference in the long run if this bull run has the legs we think it does. I have not tried to trade any of it although I have to admit watching the drop from $1030 back to $850 was less than heartening - but I did manage to load up on a bit more at that price! I know Jim says we'll go mad if we watch the tape all day - but it is fascinating isn't it? Looks like the PPT are struggling a bit atm! I wouldn't have the guts to trade... I just keep accumulating, week in week out. It's boring(ish!) but it seems to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 London PM fix USD 986.00 GBP 490.718 EUR 616.250 The hit came right after the fix. Very obvious on the minute charts, smacks of Exchange Stabilization Fund desperation. They hit oil & gold and propped up WaMu, Lehman and the USD, all at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 London PM fix USD 986.00 GBP 490.718 EUR 616.250 The hit came right after the fix. Very obvious on the minute charts, smacks of Exchange Stabilization Fund desperation. They hit oil & gold and propped up WaMu, Lehman and the USD, all at once. Why after the fix, ceej? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Check the volume after trading is over, the info is available all over the internet for free, this will also allow you to make a clear headed assessment once the dust has settled. I find ETFs a good info source but don't hold them, there's something about their governance which smells distinctly fishy. I know stockcharts have the daily volumes but wondered whether there was intraday available on the cheap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Why after the fix, ceej? Because the fix is the price at which large quantities of physical gold are traded in London. After the fix it's mostly a paper game on the COMEX. As an example: http://support.goldmoney.com/article.php?id=098 Are there any limits to how much metal I can purchase, sell or exchange? No, there is no minimum or maximum amount for metal purchases, sales or exchanges. There is, however, a limit as to how much metal you can buy or sell at a 'locked rate', which is the prevailing rate of exchange between a currency and the metal you are purchasing at the time you place your order. Presently those limits are 2,000 goldgrams and 1,500 silver ounces per business day, for metal purchases and sales. For metal exchanges (e.g., converting goldgrams directly into silver ounces) the limit is 1,000 goldgrams and 1,000 silver ounces per business day. Larger orders above these limits can of course be placed, but we cannot confirm the purchase or selling rate when you place your order. Instead, the exchange rate is based upon the first London 'Fixing Price' after the order is placed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 I wouldn't have the guts to trade... I just keep accumulating, week in week out. It's boring(ish!) but it seems to work Same here, my attitude has changed too. It's more about preserving wealth when all about are losing it, than making easy money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 I know stockcharts have the daily volumes but wondered whether there was intraday available on the cheap Probably, maybe Bubb or someone else on here knows. I always find volume info suspect on an intraday basis anyway and don't like to make big investment decisions based on anything but reliable data. I use basic TA and fundamentals for short term trades and don't look at volume at all. In the case of gold I'd like to see the low $950s now. A move down on low volume will make an entry a fairly safe bet. Always be aware that volume can show up at support/resistance and smash the small guy flat. Entering close to support with a stop a little way below can prevent quite a bit of pain in these circumstances. However. Please, please, please don't short term trade based on my posts, learn the basics for yourself. If it all goes wrong you can guarantee I won't be on here posting guidance, I'll be too busy trying to fix my own positions. The stuff I put on here is about exploiting medium term trends, not day trading. Just a general message, not directed at you Gatesy. I'd hate for anyone to lose money based on advice from a bloke on the internet. I drip feed physical purchases just like everyone else and that is one of the safest ways to gain protection from the disasters inflicted upon us by the idiots in charge. I don't generally buy into the armageddon theories, but some of the news this past week has genuinely scared me. I already have quite a large holding of physical gold and silver, but I'll be doubling my monthly purchases from here on in. I don't want to be the guy left holding a fortune in paper promises I can't collect without having some kind of consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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