GOLD

[G0ldfinger]

Somehow I think our Gov'ts have other things on their minds than posting on forums to influence a very small minority. This is actually one of the most worrying comments I've read on here in a long time and for a small moment made me feel like I'd been suckered into joining a cult with no grip on reality.

I did not say government. You should read up on how banks/funds try to influence investors in chat rooms/forums etc. Even Jim Cramer admitted publicly to this.

 

I am really worried that you don't know anything about this.

 

EDIT: Governments influence more directly, e.g. like the prime minister issues cr'p like "the banks are safe" etc.via the BBC. Even more worrying IMHO!

[grumpy-old-man]

Somehow I think our Gov'ts have other things on their minds than posting on forums to influence a very small minority. This is actually one of the most worrying comments I've read on here in a long time and for a small moment made me feel like I'd been suckered into joining a cult with no grip on reality.

 

 

the same group of people who have predicted eveything that has happened so far, & who are by far the only realists in a surreal environment.

 

the media is almost totally controlled imo........

[Justin Thyme]

Somehow I think our Gov'ts have other things on their minds than posting on forums to influence a very small minority. This is actually one of the most worrying comments I've read on here in a long time and for a small moment made me feel like I'd been suckered into joining a cult with no grip on reality.

 

I can understand why you might think that. I've maintained my physical holdings and don't see a pressing reason to sell up just yet but I'm not averse to bailing out if the circumstances change sufficiently. I certainly acknowledge the nefarious influence of the COMEX on real gold prices because I've seen it for myself in the disparity between spot and bullion dealer prices but the notion that there are government moles infiltrating forums like this with mickey mouse TA to dissuade a few waverers from piling into PMs is laughable.

 

Gold isn't performing as it ought to right now but that's not to say it won't. Still, as soon as the explanations offered for its underperformance start to sound more like the above, I'll be giving serious consideration to bailing out.

 

[G0ldfinger]

...government moles infiltrating forums like this ...

No one said that. Sash666 and you made this up.

[marmite]

I am trying to get my head around this.

 

Interest rates are cut by 1.5%, with more cuts on the table, deflation scare is citied as the reason, yadda yadda

 

But we all know that inflation is on the cards.

 

Should I be adding to the gold stack today or waiting.

 

Surely gold paper price has to be seen to be deflating to keep up the show ?????? Maybe now is the time to hold cash for 3 - 4 months and await early 2009 purchases ??

 

What do you all think ?????

 

( As already stated, I am only adding to stack, insurance and 10% net wealth stuff already covered )

 

[bitbigt]

I am trying to get my head around this.

 

Interest rates are cut by 1.5%, with more cuts on the table, deflation scare is citied as the reason, yadda yadda

 

But we all know that inflation is on the cards.

 

Should I be adding to the gold stack today or waiting.

 

Surely gold paper price has to be seen to be deflating to keep up the show ?????? Maybe now is the time to hold cash for 3 - 4 months and await early 2009 purchases ??

 

What do you all think ?????

 

( As already stated, I am only adding to stack, insurance and 10% net wealth stuff already covered )

 

 

What they tell us (vs) the truth:

 

- "inflation currently a problem in early 2008" (vs) inflation (food, oil etc) is obviously a problem, so they can't deny it but do massage the figure to make CPI 4-5% rather than its true 10-14%

 

- "inflation will subside next year due to global slowdown" (vs) a slowdown will occur and they desperately *hope* that this will bring inflation down, but they must sound certain in their rhetoric so as to prevent high wage demands [if they were certain they'd have cut interest rate way before now]

 

- "inflation has now peaked, so we can afford to stimulate the economy with rate cuts" (vs) everyone has accepted a slowdown will occur and this plus their rhetoric has successfully taken commodities lower, but they know this is temporary and they're still very scared of inflation. Nevertheless, they dare no longer wait to try restimulating the economy, and so are trying to make up for lost time by this 1.5% rate cut

 

In short, a recession has always been unavoidable. The governments and CBs fully understand that this was most likely to involve severe stagflation (because of the excessive money supply of the the last 2 decades, and now the absolutely massive priniting of new money to bail out the banks, and also in new borrowing to stimulate the economy). So they've done all they can to spin the situation and keep inflation expectation low and deflation expectations high (e.g., by pretending asset price falls lead to deflationary pressures - which they do not!). Their true concerns on inflation, however, are revealed by their keeping interest rates so high for so very long. Now, however, they're pannicking (they're more concerned about severe recession than severe inflation) and so they'll be cutting down to 1% and throwing newly borrowed barrow loads of cash into the system.

 

Should you buy gold now or wait... your call!

 

[romans holiday]

I am trying to get my head around this.

 

Interest rates are cut by 1.5%, with more cuts on the table, deflation scare is citied as the reason, yadda yadda

 

But we all know that inflation is on the cards.

 

Should I be adding to the gold stack today or waiting.

 

Surely gold paper price has to be seen to be deflating to keep up the show ?????? Maybe now is the time to hold cash for 3 - 4 months and await early 2009 purchases ??

 

What do you all think ?????

 

( As already stated, I am only adding to stack, insurance and 10% net wealth stuff already covered )

 

Personally, I am looking for a few more bouts of forced liquidation in everything, which may also hit POG from time to time, for at least the next few months.

 

I would not be surprised to see POG go through $700 [and of course the dollar to soar again... temporarily].

 

Good buying opportunities ahead. I may even consider selling a few ounces on a spike and buying again on the dip.

 

It would strangely enough be something of a liberating experience for me to actually sell some gold for a change.

[romans holiday]

DOW down, oil still selling off... gold and silver up.

 

Their monetary qualities are starting to stir.

[Wanderer]

of course, if you see I charted something, that's because or I am going to get in, or I am already in, or I am thinking to get out. You even may deduce if I lost or won. ;) I have to do charts every time because i need to watch for my money, and I share them with you because publishing enforces me to do a better charting, (kind of speak on public), you cant just say, ohh, gold is going to go up to XXX, you have to find solid stuff behind the move. Also, it is pleasant to be useful to other people, when they find your idea useful for them.

 

 

Hi Ker,

 

Are you Japanese by any chance? Seriously, I spent several years in Tokyo and its always nice to meet Japanese..... (why do I ask? something to do with your writing patterns).

 

Wanderer

[rgleeson]

government moles infiltrating forums like this with mickey mouse TA to dissuade a few waverers from piling into PMs is laughable.

 

I don't find it laughable; The U.S Government hires people (or has suggested) to do just that on others subjects, such as Iraq.

 

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/03/report-recruit.html

 

U.S Fed researches TA(why?):

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis

 

I mean, how anyone can really predict a gold price of $650, $350 or $50 when mining companies were hardly turning a profit at $800? People on this forum have openly stated they are trading this advice too!!

 

Now I don't necessarily subscriber to the view that this actually happening, just that the idea is clearly not laughable. Many companies do this, from PR, Advertizing and hedge funds, on the basis that forums post have influence, and if i had a gold suppression agenda it is exactly what I would do.

[rgleeson]

I don't find it laughable; The U.S Government hires people (or has suggested) to do just that on others subjects, such as Iraq.

 

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/03/report-recruit.html

 

U.S Fed researches TA(why?):

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis

 

I mean, how anyone can really predict a gold price of $650, $350 or $50 when mining companies were hardly turning a profit at $800? People on this forum have openly stated they are trading this advice too!!

 

Now I don't necessarily subscriber to the view that this actually happening, just that the idea is clearly not laughable. Many companies do this, from PR, Advertizing and hedge funds, on the basis that forums post have influence, and if i had a gold suppression agenda it is exactly what I would do.

 

Edit: I might add that If had other gold agendas I would do it too, eh GF/CG?

 

[sash777]

I don't find it laughable; The U.S Government hires people (or has suggested) to do just that on others subjects, such as Iraq.

 

I think we need to be careful with veering over into Men In Black territory here, as all this talk of government men can perhaps be seen to take some credibility away from the very pertinent and well-informed comments/advice that make up 99% of this great forum.

 

Right now, I'm with Justin Thyme - I've got my physical but Gold simply is not performing as we all expected it to have done by now and if we are all proven wrong then I'd rather be out early than out late. This isn't to say that we are wrong - the economics are all logical, but some of the explanations used do make me wonder sometimes!

[warpig]

Does anyone have an exploding rocket picture? Can some tell me does bad news = bad news or does bad news = good news again?

[rgleeson]

I think we need to be careful with veering over into Men In Black territory here, as all this talk of government men can perhaps be seen to take some credibility away from the very pertinent and well-informed comments/advice that make up 99% of this great forum.

 

Right now, I'm with Justin Thyme - I've got my physical but Gold simply is not performing as we all expected it to have done by now and if we are all proven wrong then I'd rather be out early than out late. This isn't to say that we are wrong - the economics are all logical, but some of the explanations used do make me wonder sometimes!

 

As I said, I don't necessarily subscribe to it. But I think a serious discussion has value, and warrants more debate than mocking. It’s certainly as relevant to the gold market as TA.

 

We live in times when market manipulation is common place, from currency intervention, stock market plunge protection or trading suspension, New Bretton Woods, short suspension, and corporate acquisitions through futures. In such times GATA's argument is persuasive: do you think gold is the only market excluded from Government meddling?

 

[marmite]

What they tell us (vs) the truth:

 

- "inflation currently a problem in early 2008" (vs) inflation (food, oil etc) is obviously a problem, so they can't deny it but do massage the figure to make CPI 4-5% rather than its true 10-14%

 

- "inflation will subside next year due to global slowdown" (vs) a slowdown will occur and they desperately *hope* that this will bring inflation down, but they must sound certain in their rhetoric so as to prevent high wage demands [if they were certain they'd have cut interest rate way before now]

 

- "inflation has now peaked, so we can afford to stimulate the economy with rate cuts" (vs) everyone has accepted a slowdown will occur and this plus their rhetoric has successfully taken commodities lower, but they know this is temporary and they're still very scared of inflation. Nevertheless, they dare no longer wait to try restimulating the economy, and so are trying to make up for lost time by this 1.5% rate cut

 

In short, a recession has always been unavoidable. The governments and CBs fully understand that this was most likely to involve severe stagflation (because of the excessive money supply of the the last 2 decades, and now the absolutely massive priniting of new money to bail out the banks, and also in new borrowing to stimulate the economy). So they've done all they can to spin the situation and keep inflation expectation low and deflation expectations high (e.g., by pretending asset price falls lead to deflationary pressures - which they do not!). Their true concerns on inflation, however, are revealed by their keeping interest rates so high for so very long. Now, however, they're pannicking (they're more concerned about severe recession than severe inflation) and so they'll be cutting down to 1% and throwing newly borrowed barrow loads of cash into the system.

 

Should you buy gold now or wait... your call!

 

Very interesting comments bigtbigt.......... It is all about timing

 

I believe a deflation scare will be followed by inflation.

 

Hey gold dropped since I posted this, lets see what non-farm brings tomorrow

 

[romans holiday]

I asked Ker the same(ish) question a couple of weeks ago. Response here.

 

I agree that sometimes Ker's forecasts appear to be contradictory when taken at face value. However, I think

(and Ker can confirm) that all that's happening is Ker is making a prediction based on an event occurring and then later if that situation isn't met, providing a revised forecast. e.g. "if we break 750 we'll see 790 before going lower" ... then 6 hours later "we didn't make it through 750 so we're off to 680 now".

 

I'd never trade based solely on someone else's predictions and charts - but if I wanted to, I think I would find it hard to based on Ker's charts. I also feel that producing two (or three) different predictions based on looking at daily and weekly (and monthly) charts is interesting but doesn't really provide any tradable info. The complex bit is combining input from *all* the time period charts, as well as fundamentals and external factors to make an informed prediction.

 

I can't do it. So right now I don't try. Ker does seem to have a reasonable rate of success but it's difficult to follow when the call gets cancelled/changed.

Cheers for that. Yes, I could not even begin to imagine what it must be like to trade the gold market on a daily basis. It would do my head in.. on again... off again... double guessing myself.

 

Though I am more of the average in and hold camp, I am not adverse to trading on a more "spike/dip" basis... and by trade I mean not on margin and with no more than a small portion of my holding. I believe Jim Sinclair is bold enough to use 30%. I might consider 10%.

[electroweak]

Does anyone have an exploding rocket picture? Can some tell me does bad news = bad news or does bad news = good news again?

The sooner the ECB runs out of gold to sell whenever they make a mistake, the better IMO. I just hope its soon.

 

EDIT: note Gold was just about to hit EUR600/ Oz ... seems that level is significant.

[rgleeson]

 

Is anyone taking a punt on the rumoured COMEX squeeze coming this Christmas?

 

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-l...x/index/a/19867

 

[warpig]

I'm punted to death and gilded to the hips. Nevertheless, I can't see this happening, if this were to happen I think we would see unprecedented intervention.

 

BTW - I just found this, the worlds first gilded Porsche boxter. Shame they wasted the gold on a hairdressers car.

 

Is anyone taking a punt on the rumoured COMEX squeeze coming this Christmas?

 

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-l...x/index/a/19867

 

[sash777]

We live in times when market manipulation is common place, from currency intervention, stock market plunge protection or trading suspension, New Bretton Woods, short suspension, and corporate acquisitions through futures. In such times GATA's argument is persuasive: do you think gold is the only market excluded from Government meddling?

 

If this is true then surely none of our predictions for Gold will ever happen as the powers that be will manipulate the life our of us.

 

In any case, I don't disagree that market manipulation may well be rife but doubt that forum manipulation is quite as popular.

[warpig]

I fear we are in for a slow dollar death or the IMF will have to run out of money before gold hits the highs. Patience is a virtue I've somehow misplaced.

 

The sooner the ECB runs out of gold to sell whenever they make a mistake, the better IMO. I just hope its soon.

 

EDIT: note Gold was just about to hit EUR600/ Oz ... seems that level is significant.

 

[grumpy-old-man]

I've moved on to Christmas already. Local supermarket had Santas out late August, so I feel somewhat late here.

 

where's your santa hat GF? you can't put it on then take it off, it's confusing my seasons.

[electroweak]

THIS IS THE OLD OCTOBER THREAD. PLEASE MOVE TO NOVEMBER!

Either that, or Steve/Bubb could un-pin this one!

[rgleeson]

Take advice from the Mises:

 

http://mises.org/story/3191

 

Actually I disagree with Murphy in this instance, I think the way out for them is to trash the currency. Devaluation of about 60% and debt equilibrium is normalized. The trick is managing this down and not letting it cascade, which is probably what they are trying to do.

 

Even the Queen was complaining how her Government gifted funds are 70% down in real terms.

[bitbigt]

If this is true then surely none of our predictions for Gold will ever happen as the powers that be will manipulate the life our of us.

 

In any case, I don't disagree that market manipulation may well be rife but doubt that forum manipulation is quite as popular.

Talking of manipulation - am I the only one that thinks todays PoG moves look kinda suspicious?