Mr Pipples Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 LOL! .. I've got to say in this current market I'm more and more inclined to agree that TA *must* be getting difficult if not impossible. You have organisations going bust or being bailed out, central banks slashing rates, stock markets yo-yoing. When the fundamentals and external factors are swinging around all over the place, how on earth can the charts (which show where the money flowed in THE PAST) have any real bearing on the future? - other than the fact that a lot of black boxes out there are trading according to how they've been programmed - which is to follow the charts. Add in a spot of market intervention/manipulation and it really becomes a lottery. A year ago I was an anti-chartist. Having read up quite a bit, I'm now more of a believer and I feel they have real value. But right now? In this climate?! ... tenuous, at best. I guess that's the real pain in the ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 it seems that this chart confused some people, but this is not the bottom in price, this bottom in the momentum, the prices can go lower on lower momentum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 LOL! .. I've got to say in this current market I'm more and more inclined to agree that TA *must* be getting difficult if not impossible. You have organisations going bust or being bailed out, central banks slashing rates, stock markets yo-yoing. When the fundamentals and external factors are swinging around all over the place, how on earth can the charts (which show where the money flowed in THE PAST) have any real bearing on the future? - other than the fact that a lot of black boxes out there are trading according to how they've been programmed - which is to follow the charts. Add in a spot of market intervention/manipulation and it really becomes a lottery. A year ago I was an anti-chartist. Having read up quite a bit, I'm now more of a believer and I feel they have real value. But right now? In this climate?! ... tenuous, at best. TA still works, to what degreee is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Nah, the red line is more like it. i prefer this longer term chart http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7099.html Conclusion Since August of 2007 we have witnessed the relentless escalation of the credit crisis: a steady constriction of credit markets, starting with subprime mortgage-backed securities, spreading to commercial paper, then to interbank credit, and then to CDOs, CLOs, jumbo mortgages, home equity lines of credit, LBOs and private equity markets, and then generally to the bond and securities markets. While the media describes the problem as one of illiquidity and confidence, a more serious analysis indicates that boom-time credit has been employed unproductively and so losses must be incurred. In other words, scarce capital has been misallocated, poorly invested, and effectively wasted. No amount of monetary or fiscal policy can fix the errors of the past, just like no modern treatment can quickly restore to health a drug addict debilitated from a decade-long drug abuse. Based on indicators like - (1) global real estate overvaluation, (2) indebtedness, (3) leverage, (4) outstanding derivatives, (5) global bubbles, and (6) the precariousness of the global monetary system, I would argue that the accumulated imbalances in the current period surpass significantly those preceding the Great Depression. I therefore conclude that the coming U.S. (and possibly) global depression will be of greater magnitude than the Great Depression of the 1930s. It likely suggests that we are entering a historic period that will likely be known as The Greater Depression . Investor beware! Only gold can protect you from the ravages of another Depression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 i prefer this longer term chart http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7099.html looking at that chart again - its usually a quick correction when stocks have been high - seems like someone has managed to slow the correction down this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 TA still works, to what degreee is the question. Trend Analysis works but it is not a panacea to cure all ills, it can only guide to where the price might go based on historical norms and at nearly every point on the chart a different pattern can be recognised. It is the sum of all the previous patterns at the point of analysis that gives the weight to the direction of the price trend. But news can change and shift the price very easily kicking any analysis into a cocked hat. If news moves the price against the trend then unless the news is fundemental the price will just continue its original trend when the news impact is over. News and trend gets kicked about by fundamentals. It is fundamentals such as a larger than expected interest change that make the news and sets the trend. It’s funny though how the larger than expected change to the interest rates didn’t change Sterling, it was almost if some people already knew it was to happen and priced it in or is it that Sterling is so far down the pan already that a fundamental change didn’t affect it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 To trade or not to trade? If you bought gold when it was $350 then you would be in profit now even if not as healthy as when it went to $1030. I can understand cgnao and goldfingers buy and hold strategy as they bought early. If you bought at $850 and went from being at a moderate loss to a moderate profit, then the temptation to trade is greater. I bought at around £14500 and have been smack in the middle of the trading range over the past year. Very frustrating! Did you buy and hold guys not feel different in the earlier days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Nah, the red line is more like it. Oh boy CG never did mince his words! My understanding is that THERE IS NO MARKET RIGHT NOW due to manipulation. Charts are just smoke and mirrors until the powers that be stop mucking around with the market. So we might as well be looking at chicken guts to predict the price of gold. All our cherished economic rules, metrics and methods go out of the window in times like this. I recently ran a large scale high temperature experiment. The reaction ran away so that the temperature soared. We all got really scared because we couldn't shut it down. Folk were panicking but then the thermocouple indicated that the temperature was falling. Phew it must have burnt itself out, we thought! 5hrs later the whole reactor melted, spreading molten ceramics around the factory. Picking over the wreckage a few days later when it had cooled we found the thermocouples has burned out long before the final meltdown. Luckily no-one was hurt, but the take home message is clear. When conditions get extreme your trusted indicators can be worse than useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 I recently ran a large scale high temperature experiment. The reaction ran away so that the temperature soared. We all got really Nothing to do with JET at Culham, by chance? (fusion sustained!??) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 guys, the buck may go higher, and the DOW could put a new low to 7500 next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 guys, the buck may go higher, and the DOW could put a new low to 7500 next week Wait a minute. I think you are shortchanging us. What about the second outlook? I mean, the one we can pick if we so believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 guys, the buck may go higher, and the DOW could put a new low to 7500 next week yep i have a hunch that may happen - then a rally to march and then down we go again - until the dow/gold ratio is as low as 2 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Wait a minute. I think you are shortchanging us. What about the second outlook? I mean, the one we can pick if we so believe? You are a fine one to talk! Ker isn't the one giving 100% guarentees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catflap Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Wait a minute. I think you are shortchanging us. What about the second outlook? I mean, the one we can pick if we so believe? Give it a rest cgnao, this is the 3rd swipe at Ker that you've made in as many days. Whilst charting gold may be difficult atm I'm sure Ker's work will get even better and come into it's own when gold is in a bull run. Peace and chill out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Give it a rest cgnao, this is the 3rd swipe at Ker that you've made in as many days. Whilst charting gold may be difficult atm I'm sure Ker's work will get even better and come into it's own when gold is in a bull run. Peace and chill out maybe hes just trying to stop people who arent successful traders losing their shirts by trying to trade gold short term good luck to those that can but its more luck than judgement in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 People should just hold physical. Trading this market is madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 ... (if you ask my personal opinion, i am on the bear side) Of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 I went to the local notarius publicus to do some biz today. She charged me €3. Pleasingly cheap. But then it reminded me of the publicanus notoriosus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 ... Luckily no-one was hurt, but the take home message is clear. When conditions get extreme your trusted indicators can be worse than useless. At least for a time. Wise words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Nothing to do with JET at Culham, by chance? (fusion sustained!??) Nah. Making Aluminium Nitride. Actually I think the JET would be really pleased to get more energy out than they put in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 8, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2008 where's your santa hat GF? you can't put it on then take it off, it's confusing my seasons. Sorry, I'll get it out again Dec 06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted November 8, 2008 Report Share Posted November 8, 2008 ignore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted November 8, 2008 Report Share Posted November 8, 2008 My understanding is that THERE IS NO MARKET RIGHT NOW due to manipulation. As far as I am experiencing, there is no gold market right now due to a shortage. There is a bloody 3 weeks waitlist to get the kilo gold bars I want to buy with the significant profits of my option "hobby". Not ounce wafers or coins, kilo gold bars! 3 weeks! To add insult to injury, the sonofabitch gnome of Zurich won't lock the price in. I had to pay him an advance just for the privilege of being given the opportunity to buy at whatever the price will be in 3 weeks. He says it's because it's become "difficult to hedge on the futures market". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catflap Posted November 8, 2008 Report Share Posted November 8, 2008 maybe hes just trying to stop people who arent successful traders losing their shirts by trying to trade gold short term Possibly, but I think the analysis is all part of the picture to help understand what is going on. I don't think anyone should trade using Ker's charts who doesn't know what they are doing - the picture with the USDX and gold is very confusing atm. If in doubt, average in on a monthly basis and perhaps try and recognise when the market is overbought and likely to fall significantly and don't put all your eggs in one basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 8, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2008 ... He says it's because it's become "difficult to hedge on the futures market". And I thought the CRIMEX worked fine and the price of gold is cheap and no one wants to have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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