electroweak Posted November 6, 2008 Report Share Posted November 6, 2008 Talking of manipulation - am I the only one that thinks todays PoG moves look kinda suspicious? Yep, as I said on another thread - I think today's action stinks. It might have been the ECB selling a bit, knowing rate cuts would fire up the rocket past EUR600 /Oz (which clearly must not be allowed to happen and if it does, gold gets whacked).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 6, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2008 Tztz, no conspiracy theories please. That's just natural off-selling of gold that occurs every time interest rates get panic-cut by 33%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 6, 2008 Report Share Posted November 6, 2008 I asked Ker the same(ish) question a couple of weeks ago. Response here. I agree that sometimes Ker's forecasts appear to be contradictory when taken at face value. However, I think (and Ker can confirm) that all that's happening is Ker is making a prediction based on an event occurring and then later if that situation isn't met, providing a revised forecast. e.g. "if we break 750 we'll see 790 before going lower" ... then 6 hours later "we didn't make it through 750 so we're off to 680 now". I'd never trade based solely on someone else's predictions and charts - but if I wanted to, I think I would find it hard to based on Ker's charts. I also feel that producing two (or three) different predictions based on looking at daily and weekly (and monthly) charts is interesting but doesn't really provide any tradable info. The complex bit is combining input from *all* the time period charts, as well as fundamentals and external factors to make an informed prediction. I can't do it. So right now I don't try. Ker does seem to have a reasonable rate of success but it's difficult to follow when the call gets cancelled/changed. well , thats what market does, it goes back and forth, in a straight bull or bear trend we shouldn't break supports so easily, this means, we are going through a correction (corrections behave in disorder), and that is not a good time for long term moves, only for short term. Also, i provide charts for information, not for trading, this would be too much responsability for me and that's not the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 6, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2008 Does anyone know what the realistic fees are for larger volume trading in the LBM? E.g. goldinvestdirect offers fees down to 0.4%, BV goes even lower for larger quantities I think. But what would be the costs for a larger transaction (say north of 10,000oz) in the market directly, e.g. if a private person wanted to store the stuff with Viamat or Brinks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 6, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2008 For those who have missed it: TOCOM (Tokyo futures market) is now out of physical gold, will deliver ETF. http://www.tocom.or.jp/20081105-1.html Based on the Memorandum of Understanding singed in January this year, The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) and Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) have launched "Inter-market Cooperation Workshop" in efforts to improve convenience for participants of the both markets, and studied to reinforce cooperation between the commodity market and the stock market. In light of the study at the workshop, TOCOM has added a "physically backed commodity ETF" as a possible physical for EFP (Exchange of Futures for Physicals) transactions at the exchange, which allows seller and the buyer, who holds agreement for physical transactions, to conclude the contract s in the commodity futures market without continuous trading of physicals. Therefore, the “SPDR® Gold Shares”, physically backed commodity EFT listed on the TSE, which has a correlation with the gold spot price, can now be used as a physical for EFP transaction on TOCOM’s Gold market. Thanks to this new arrangement, it is expected that the link between TSE's SPDR® Gold Shares market and the TOCOM Gold market will be strengthen and that the price reliability, as well as the liquidity of both markets will be enhanced. For inquiries about this news release, please contact: Planning Department, The Tokyo Commodity Exchange Phone: +81-3-3661-7917 Corporate Communications Tokyo Stock Exchange Phone: +81-3-3665-1214 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 6, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2008 They've run out of gold too. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Bullio...how/3674557.cms Foreign banks cut down gold supply to India 5 Nov, 2008, 0326 hrs IST,Ram Narsinghdev Sahgal, ET Bureau ... MUMBAI: With the credit crisis having a direct impact on funding costs and drying up of interbank credit lines, a few foreign banks have altogether stopped supplies of gold to Indian banks in a bid to reduce their exposure to Asian markets. This comes at a time when global liquidity pressures have eased considerably and local demand for the yellow metal has picked up as prices have come off the highs witnessed in the early part of October. Dealers from many banks told ET that supplies have been squeezed with banks, such as Standard Bank of South Africa, one of the main suppliers, Commerzbank and UBS, stopping supplies altogether or reducing them on a consignment basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catflap Posted November 6, 2008 Report Share Posted November 6, 2008 So which is it to be - USDX goes even higher and gold goes even lower or the other way around? http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/forex/...ision-79106.cfm Lower highs on the USDX but higher lows at the same time, so it could break out either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Take advice from the Mises: http://mises.org/story/3191 Actually I disagree with Murphy in this instance, I think the way out for them is to trash the currency. Devaluation of about 60% and debt equilibrium is normalized. The trick is managing this down and not letting it cascade, which is probably what they are trying to do. Even the Queen was complaining how her Government gifted funds are 70% down in real terms. How else will the economy move on, if these admittedly overvalued properties do not shed some of the gains during the artificial boom? Government efforts to prop up house prices will waste billions of taxpayer dollars and will only serve to continue denying reality. Dollar devaluation it is then. If the government remains determined for the prices of overvalued property to remain where they are, the only way to re-align the economy is for the currency to devalue. Now if the boom inflated housing prices by 50% [overvalued by a third] then expect the potency of the dollar to deflate by 33% in order to compensate. That's the theory anyway, in reality things do not work out so neat and orderly so expect it to over-correct. The price would then remain the same without being over-valued. Complete madness palatable only for a nation in debt. Got to feel sorry for the poor savers and creditors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 For those who have missed it: Wow, thats huge no? I would not be so happy to receive an ETF in place of physical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgleeson Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Wow, thats huge no? I would not be so happy to receive an ETF in place of physical So if I have to find gold to settle my futures contract obligation, but can't because no one will sell me physical at all (price is too low). I can cover that contract with an ETF that is trading at the price of my futures market (which is too low). Did I get that right? Price of the ETF is correlated to the spot price right, so it doesn't have a demand driven price curve like a share? Plus, the spot price is heavily influenced by the futures prices, since more paper changes hands than physical is traded. It all sounds pretty self referential to me, and that's before we talk about ETF risks. Edit: Okay, the ETF still has to expand its gold holding. But it would seem some risk is passed from the Option holder to the ETF vendor on price movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 (if you ask my personal opinion, i am on the bear side) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 we may have hit the bottom in the momentum, and we probably will be hitting a weekly bottom next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Using my pnf charts I think we will bounce between 720 and then go up to 760... If we break support at 720 then could go down to retest 685..personally I would like to see this as me, my mum and grandma will all be back into gold in a very big way... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=%24gold,P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 (if you ask my personal opinion, i am on the bear side) "You may choose the one you believe the most". Hilarious! Can I say it might just track sideways within a range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Just bought some silver. Lower prices are coming.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 "You may choose the one you believe the most". Hilarious! Can I say it might just track sideways within a range? yep, might today, we still have trading space in the triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jinbal Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Using my pnf charts I think we will bounce between 720 and then go up to 760... If we break support at 720 then could go down to retest 685..personally I would like to see this as me, my mum and grandma will all be back into gold in a very big way... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=%24gold,P so will I as long as GBP holds up whilst Gold goes down Frustratingly they've been going down together recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 "You may choose the one you believe the most". Hilarious! Can I say it might just track sideways within a range? Nah, the red line is more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 I can see paper gold falling all the way to $600 to be honest. Not that it matters, the disconnect between paper fantasy and physical reality will only get bigger as time goes on. The miners have already been slaughtered, you can't get an ounce of gold for anywhere near spot anyway, so what are you what are you waiting for? We're past the point in the game where playing paper gold is wise or even possible. The swings will be too fast, large and violent to allow anything but 'roulette' style-trading in the market. It's time to just buy the metal or the shares and hold them to the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Nah, the red line is more like it. LOL! .. I've got to say in this current market I'm more and more inclined to agree that TA *must* be getting difficult if not impossible. You have organisations going bust or being bailed out, central banks slashing rates, stock markets yo-yoing. When the fundamentals and external factors are swinging around all over the place, how on earth can the charts (which show where the money flowed in THE PAST) have any real bearing on the future? - other than the fact that a lot of black boxes out there are trading according to how they've been programmed - which is to follow the charts. Add in a spot of market intervention/manipulation and it really becomes a lottery. A year ago I was an anti-chartist. Having read up quite a bit, I'm now more of a believer and I feel they have real value. But right now? In this climate?! ... tenuous, at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeingBabyBoomer Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Nah, the red line is more like it. Poor form. Ker is as entitled to his opinion as your are to yours. No matter how right you may have been lately, throwing stones is simply throwing stones. ABB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Poor form. Ker is as entitled to his opinion as your are to yours. No matter how right you may have been lately, throwing stones is simply throwing stones. ABB I think cgnao's point is that short term thie moves are a lottery, and so charting is just a lot of lines Longer term, the price direction is very much up, since all the CBs and govs are throwing unlimited amounts of new money at the global economic problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sid Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 I think cgnao's point is that short term thie moves are a lottery, and so charting is just a lot of lines Longer term, the price direction is very much up, since all the CBs and govs are throwing unlimited amounts of new money at the global economic problems I thought the same & it does make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 Poor form. I disagree. I thought it was funny and states cgnao's opinion ("trading gold based on TA is not wise right now") in quite an amusing way. I would've thought we're all mature enough to enjoy a bit of banter. Hopefully Ker won't be offended.... I, for one, really enjoy his posts. Ker is as entitled to his opinion as your are to yours. No matter how right you may have been lately, throwing stones is simply throwing stones. I don't really get this. Ker is entitled to his opinion. So is cgnao. cgnao didn't abuse or insult Ker (e.g "you're a lying useless low-life idiot"), or leave a message on his answering machine saying he'd had sexual relations with his grand-daughter... it's just an opinion on charting. Lighten up folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeingBabyBoomer Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 I think cgnao's point is that short term thie moves are a lottery, and so charting is just a lot of lines Longer term, the price direction is very much up, since all the CBs and govs are throwing unlimited amounts of new money at the global economic problems If that's the case, then fine - only the subtlety of the message was not conveyed by defacing Ker's chart. To me (as a recovering scientist) TA looks like voodoo, but I like to hear all sides of an argument and draw my own conclusions. ABB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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